The "ceiling" for every player in the lineup

[adambr2]

Though team expectations aren't high this year, one thing that does get me excited about the team is that on the surface, when I look at the lineup, I think, "Wow, at first glance, there's a lot of possible upside".

 

So is there? Even though some guys are obviously going to be closer to their floor than ceiling, I'm going to take a stab out of guessing what the ceiling is for every projected guy on our lineup and bench with an explanation included, as well as a "ballpark" of what their most prominent stats might be if they hit their respective ceilings. When I speak of "ceilings", I'm trying to stay in the realm of what I think might be realistically possible, even if unlikely, but I'm not going to try to predict any shocking unforeseen seasons like Tommy Harper for the 1970 Brewers. So here goes:

 

LF Braun - .950 OPS, 6 WARP

So this is obviously contingent on reports on his health being the best in years being true, him remaining healthy and holding off Father Time for another year. Hey, if he can, he's been this good before.

 

CF Broxton, 20 HR, 60 SB, 6 WARP

Yes, I think Broxton has a 6 WAR ceiling. His defense and baserunning can be that much of a boost. This is even assuming he hits no better than .250, which he probably won't. 20 HR and 60 SB is a stretch, but that's why they call it a ceiling.

 

RF Santana, .900 OPS, 3.5 WARP

Santana really needs to perform with the bat to reach his ceiling, as there isn't a lot of upside with his D. I do however think he can improve there in comparison to last season.

 

1B Thames, .900 OPS, 3.5 WARP

Thames is just so hard to nail down a ceiling for, and frankly, I'm probably being a little too conservative on his simply because I really have no idea how his defense will be. Obviously, you can't translate his Korea performances and use it as a ceiling.

 

2B Villar, 20 HR, 60 SB, 4 WARP

He's a similar player to Broxton -- better contact, probably a little bit inferior baserunning, but Villar falls short on the ceiling projection comparison because he'll never have the value at 2nd that Broxton can have in CF. A 4 WARP ceiling is based on him maintaining most of his offensive numbers from last season while also improving his defense as an everyday 2nd baseman.

 

SS Arcia, .280 AVG, 15 HR, 3 WARP

It feels a bit strange giving Arcia, our most highly touted prospect in awhile, the lowest projection so far, but it just seems like too much needs to come together too soon for a guy who is only 22.

 

3B Shaw, 30 HR, 3.5 WARP

Shaw can be better than people think. He could be the Villar surprise player for 2017. Consider in 2015 he hit 13 HR in only 248 PAs, in a tough lefty environment at Fenway, and the 30 HR ceiling doesn't seem as bullish. If he hits that, and the defense is as good as advertised -- he can hit that ceiling.

 

C Bandy, 15 HR, .725 OPS, 2.5 WARP

The catchers are tough to project. Bandy's power seems somewhat intriguing with the 8 HR last year in limited PA's. His defense should be a plus.

 

C Pina - .270 AVG, 2 WARP

Pina's ceiling is even tougher to nail down than Bandy. Is he a journeyman, or a late bloomer? If he's a late bloomer, and ends up on the high end of the catching platoon, I could foresee a 2 WAR.

 

IF/OF Perez .290 AVG, .800 OPS, 3.5 WARP

There was a lot to like about Perez' 2016 season. He's very versatile, and his good D just about everywhere gives him good potential value. To hit his ceiling on WARP and OPS, he's going to need to improve the last big remaining weakness in his game -- the OBP. He's also going to need to see the lineup 4-5 days a week.

 

IF/OF Gennett .290 AVG, 15 HR, 2.5 WARP

Scooter hasn't ever hit more than 14 HR as an everyday 2nd baseman, so it's impossible for me to project more than 15, even as a ceiling, when he's likely to see a big cut in playing time. Even though they'll try to pass him off as a utility man, his defensive value limits his ceiling.

 

OF Nieuwenhuis, 15 HR, 1.2 WARP

Even though Captain Kirk put together a 0.6-1 WARP last year, depending on who you ask, his playing time should be limited enough to keep his ceiling from being much higher. To reach his ceiling, he'd need to get more playing time than expected based on struggles from one of the OF'ers or a Braun trade, and he'd need to be the first OF option off the bench ahead of Perez and Scooter.

[Warning Track Power]

I think the 2016 Villar is not only the ceiling for Villar but also for Broxton. While I am definitely bullish on Villar, I definitely believe the 2016 season was his ceiling. I expect him to hit .270-.280 with 15 HR and 60 SB moving forward and just not quite the .285-.295 or 20+ HR power.

 

If the second half Broxton was not a mirage and he could somehow hit .270-.280, we would be looking at an ELITE top of the lineup with 2 guys with a .350+ OBP, 15-20 HR potential and 60+ SB. That would be insanely fun.

[FVBrewerFan]

Thanks for taking the time to do this. Honestly, even for realistic ceilings some of these seem really high. I think we still have ops and hr numbers in our heads from a few years ago. Only 9 players in the NL were over .900 ops last year.

[brewcrewdue80]

My Caveat is Broxton's ceiling is too low. At least in HRs. 20 is light for ceiling, 34 would fit a more appropriate ceiling. 20 would just be my average expectation for him with 550+ PAs. The SBs certainly are his ceiling. Im thinking 45 is that number.

 

Gennett, Perez, and Kirk N. I'm just down on with Playing time to be reduced. Maybe Half would be appropiate and 20-30pts less in BA.

 

Santana and Thames sure .900 OPS ceilings seem suitable.

Shaw I cant get on board with 30HRs, partly because I expect him around 7th in batting order, partly because Perez sharing time.

Arcia I hope you're right. You do figure he may bat 8/9th so the pitches are going to be worse with a pitcher batting after. And his early swinging may suffer to that swinging at pitches trying to avoid the zone.

 

Put the Starters together though and think

34, 20, 27, 30, 30, 25, 15, 15 on HRs~196HR combined. Before adding Bench stats to HRs. Wheres that put this Milw team for HRs?

[Noche]

If that's Arcia's batting line, he will be a 5-6 win player or more even

[JohnBriggs12]

What's positive about this team is that they could insert guys like Perez, Gennett, and Aguillar for any "regulars" who are struggling and still get starting caliber production with possibility of midseason contributions from the likes of Brinson that could equal or exceed what they start the year with.

[adambr2]

If that's Arcia's batting line, he will be a 5-6 win player or more even

 

Think so? I'm not as high on his D as advertised. Not yet, anyway.

[Noche]

If that's Arcia's batting line, he will be a 5-6 win player or more even

 

Think so? I'm not as high on his D as advertised. Not yet, anyway.

 

Yes I do

[Jose Cardenal1]

Is it possible that the 2017 Brewers could have a 200HR/200SB season? Would need good health and multiple guys hitting their ceiling but the possibility is there.

 

Last year they came surprisingly close: 194HR's & 181SB. No other year in franchise history did they even sniff 200/200.

 

I have looked at a handful of other teams historical information and haven't found a team yet that accomplished a 200/200 season but I cant say that it hasn't been done before.

 

Clearly it would be a unique season though.