The Investment Thread

[stoutdude04]

One of my buddies got in Doge at .036 and is now worth over 20k. Another threw in 200$ and is now worth 8k. Both told me I should get in. I didn't. Whoops.

[homer]

Coinbase has outrageous fees. A new broker or the SEC allowing crypto ETFs would really cut into Coinbase's market share. Only competitive advantage they seem to have right now is they're WAY easier to use, but that's not a particularly big barrier for someone else to cross. I won't be buying their IPO.

 

Use Coinbase Pro. Fees are dramatically cheaper.

 

FYI Coinbase now lets you stake your ETH. 6.0% APR

[nodakfan17]

It looks like Apple will be on sale again today.

 

I’m not a big individual stock guy, but I’m bullish on Big Tech and have done well buying the dips on Apple.

[nodakfan17]

According to KBB, my used Camry is worth $3,000 more now than it was at this time last year. I figured it was a decent car. Who would have thought it’d turn out to be a good investment?

[DHonks]

It looks like Apple will be on sale again today.

 

I’m not a big individual stock guy, but I’m bullish on Big Tech and have done well buying the dips on Apple.

 

I've owned Apple most of the time since 2012. It's been very good to me. I sold some at $136 recently, but purchased some at $122.50 today. My next limit order is $117.50.

[nate82]

Bad news for the economy today with the CPI numbers. It is probably a good idea to start moving some money if you haven't already to Bitcoin or Ethereum to hedge any inflation losses that are going to be coming. If you don't like the digital currencies there is always gold or silver.

[DHonks]

Bad news for the economy today with the CPI numbers. It is probably a good idea to start moving some money if you haven't already to Bitcoin or Ethereum to hedge any inflation losses that are going to be coming. If you don't like the digital currencies there is always gold or silver.

 

not sure why that's the case. We haven't had significant inflation since the early 80s when the Fed cured it with the manufactured recession. Inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing. Moderate inflation can lead to wage increases and is a byproduct of a growing economy. Virtually no inflation like the last several decades has been problematic, as employers haven't been giving COLAs and workers have been subtly falling behind each year.

 

I don't buy that the current issues are really inflation. Rather I feel we're dealing with supply and demand imbalances brought upon by shifting consumer habits, low interest rates, and a manufacturing sector that was shut down for much of 2000. For the last 10 years we've been hearing that inflation was coming, and it hasn't. One gov't report isn't a trend, it's a data point.

[wallus]

According to KBB, my used Camry is worth $3,000 more now than it was at this time last year. I figured it was a decent car. Who would have thought it’d turn out to be a good investment?

 

All vehicles have increased in value significantly. My dad is looking to trade his 2016 Sierra and has been offered more than he paid for it new.

[nate82]

 

not sure why that's the case. We haven't had significant inflation since the early 80s when the Fed cured it with the manufactured recession. Inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing. Moderate inflation can lead to wage increases and is a byproduct of a growing economy. Virtually no inflation like the last several decades has been problematic, as employers haven't been giving COLAs and workers have been subtly falling behind each year.

 

I don't buy that the current issues are really inflation. Rather I feel we're dealing with supply and demand imbalances brought upon by shifting consumer habits, low interest rates, and a manufacturing sector that was shut down for much of 2000. For the last 10 years we've been hearing that inflation was coming, and it hasn't. One gov't report isn't a trend, it's a data point.

 

Even if your wages go up during a moderate inflation period you are still at where you were previously before the inflation so your buying power hasn't really increased it just stayed the same and in some cases you are actually making less. When you have a raise in CPI like what we have seen you see the buying power go down even when wages have gone up. CPI spikes can be attributed to many things like an increase in labor costs. If Bob at Joes farm starts making $15 an hour when they were making $10 an hour there is going to be an increase in the price of goods from Joes farm. Bob is now making more an hour but his buying power may have actually decreased even though he is making more an hour. The inflation on the price of goods cancelled out the increase in his wages as he is no longer able to buy what he bought when he was making $10 an hour.

 

We are seeing an increase in your common consumer goods (fuel, food, clothing, etc.) when you see increases like this the ones that are hit the hardest are the ones at the lower income brackets and they tend to lag far behind the increases in inflation. Even the middle class tend to fall behind the increase in inflation. The US Dollar has become weaker over the years and this is evident in the price for Bitcoin and Gold. It is not that the price of Gold or Bitcoin has been increasing it is that the value of the US Dollar has been decreasing along with the other fiat currencies.

 

Yes some inflation is good but when you start seeing large increases in the CPI that is not moderate inflation.

[DHonks]

I agree with all of that, but we haven't really seen sustained inflation. We've seen one data point. Every report for the last few years has warned of potential inflation, but it's come in less than the low-end of the desired range (2%). The Fed and Treasury have pointed out that too low of inflation has been one reason that lower and middle class workers have seen their wages decrease in REAL dollars. With moderate inflation like the Fed's general target of ~3%, employers are more likely to pass along COLAs to those workers or risk losing them. That's in addition to the typical raises that they may be giving. Now when inflation is in the teens like in the 1970s, that's when a worker's COLA never has a chance to catch up. While a worker gets an annual adjustment, the rest of the year they have fallen behind and paid more. The Fed and Treasury have pointed out that when inflation is low like it has been for many years, employers don't feel pressure to adjust wages. So while inflation might have been 1.5%, it wasn't big enough to draw the attention (on a personal note, selfishly I'd love a COLA...jealous of my teacher friend in Utah that gets a COLA in addition to any pay raise).

 

And is fuel more expensive these days? It depends on when we compare it to. I don't know about in Wisconsin, but in AZ it's cheaper than it was for most of the 2009-2015 time period. I'm filling up for around $3/gallon, which is about 10-15% lower than a decade ago. It's more expensive than when prices plunged about 3-5 years ago due to the fracking boom and OPEC's decisions to try to outcompete the US firms by driving prices into the ground

[nodakfan17]

I closely follow interest rates due to the nature of my job. One data point doesn’t scare me, but a pattern would. I’m still fairly optimistic we’re dealing with supply and demand imbalances that will get sorted out as the supply chain returns to normal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There will be a significant correction that goes with getting the supply chain and labor/housing markets sorted out after all the things propping them up expire. There's a record amount of job openings in the country, and unemployment is stagnated or even creeping back up - some (not all) of that undoubtedly is the excess unemployment benefits being printed out and issued. foreclosures and evictions are still not happening as far as I can tell - eventually that will be allowed to happen again, and even if it's a gradual phasing back to how things ran pre-covid that will impact the housing and rental markets.

 

CPI going up for these items independent of interest rates/inflation and the real estate market being pretty overinflated is very similar to what happened leading up to the last significant recession around 2006-2007. Differing reasons, but a very similar pattern seems to be underway.

[GAME05]

Crypto actually doesn't track with inflation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Crypto actually doesn't track with inflation.

 

It also hasn't been around through a legit longterm recession to know how it would perform when excess capital isn't looking for a home - if I recall crypto originated on the back end of the last big recession and has been able to fluctuate and gain public interest during a very long period of sustained economic growth - particularly US economic growth.

 

I don't know enough about crypto to be an expert, but in the face of a longterm recession based on economic fundamentals, I'm not sure I'd want to lean too heavily on an imagined asset - making speculative plays, sure.

[LouisEly]

Bitcoin got hammered with Musks announcement (and the revelation of how energy inefficient bitcoin really is) and regarding inflation in materials pricing I'm hearing that many projects are being put on hold because of prices and labor shortage. Cramer also said today that copper futures have started to retreat so inflation could easily start to subside.

[GAME05]

I looked into staking my etherium and this is what Coinbase said: "After staking, you’ll be unable to trade, send, or sell the ETH you’ve staked until the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade is complete. However, later this year we expect to offer a way for you to trade your staked ETH."

 

So I guess if I suddenly wanted out, I couldn't until Coinbase told me I could, and who knows how long that might be.

[homer]

I closely follow interest rates due to the nature of my job. One data point doesn’t scare me, but a pattern would. I’m still fairly optimistic we’re dealing with supply and demand imbalances that will get sorted out as the supply chain returns to normal.

 

Yeah it's a really strange recovery pattern. It's gonna take the summer to sort itself out.

[igor67]

To a certain extent I would say it is fairly encouraging that a number of the places where there have been price spikes have caused people to reconsider projects. If it seemed like there were no adjustments to the price hikes then we could be in some real trouble.

[LouisEly]

Bitcoin got hammered with Musks announcement (and the revelation of how energy inefficient bitcoin really is) and regarding inflation in materials pricing I'm hearing that many projects are being put on hold because of prices and labor shortage. Cramer also said today that copper futures have started to retreat so inflation could easily start to subside.

They said on CNBC today that this week lumber was down 7.5%, copper down 2%, and corn down 10.5%.

[GAME05]

Wow, I was really surprised to open Off Topic and have no new posts in this thread. I was figuring to see everyone freaking out.

[nate82]

Wow, I was really surprised to open Off Topic and have no new posts in this thread. I was figuring to see everyone freaking out.

 

I bought more ethereum when it dipped to 1860.

 

I am still up from when I bought so I am good.

 

I also bought some Cardano but timed it wrong and bought at 1.68. Missed the bottom by about 45 minutes late stupid emergency meeting at work cost me about $2500. Oh well I'll just hold this one for longer than I wanted to originally.

[thebruce44]

Wow, I was really surprised to open Off Topic and have no new posts in this thread. I was figuring to see everyone freaking out.

 

I bought more ethereum when it dipped to 1860.

 

I am still up from when I bought so I am good.

 

I also bought some Cardano but timed it wrong and bought at 1.68. Missed the bottom by about 45 minutes late stupid emergency meeting at work cost me about $2500. Oh well I'll just hold this one for longer than I wanted to originally.

 

I'm not putting any more in because we are purchasing a house today that will need a renovation. I lost *a lot* of money on paper this week, but that's okay. I am still up from this time last month and I think we are only half way through the cycle. If anything, I could see ETH leading the way in the second half and we may finally get the flippening as defi starts to get attention with the general public. There are going to be some great returns outside of the traditional routes.

[homer]

I am looooong on Ethereum so a dip/correction doesn't bother me. I'm dollar cost averaging due to the volatility. At most I expect to ultimately have about 3% of my investments in crypto.

[GAME05]

I'm pretty heavy in crypto and I held through it all. I'd figured on slowly getting out toward the end of summer and I'm still sticking with that plan.

 

Three months ago I moved my regular stocks to mining (Vale) and a REIT (ACC) and those have done ok. Recently dumped a growth stock at a healthy loss and replaced it with Apple's recent dip.

[nodakfan17]

My wife and I haven’t refinanced our mortgage during this current cycle and could potentially lower our rate by a full percentage point. I’m considering taking anywhere from $10K to $30K out as part of the refi and investing that money in equity index funds with the idea being that the long-term return on that investment will greatly exceed the 3% mortgage interest. I believe my wife and I have the financial discipline to let those funds ride for 10+ years. Aside from the obvious market risk (it’s possible my ROI doesn’t exceed 3%), am I missing any pitfalls?