The Investment Thread

[FVBrewerFan]

I am assuming that I am a big idiot, because no matter how many times someone explains Bitcoin to me, I still don't really get it.

 

This tutorial may help clear things up:

 

[JackNicholson1974]

I am assuming that I am a big idiot, because no matter how many times someone explains Bitcoin to me, I still don't really get it.

 

It is simple. It’s valuable because it’s an alternate currency. It’s value is being something that you can use to buy things with. The flip side is that nobody would ever spend it on anything, so I doubt it will ever be used for it’s intended purpose. Which, in my mind tells me it’s only valuable because someone else will pay you more than you paid for it to hold it in a digital wallet until they sell it to someone else for more.

 

There. That is Bitcoin.

[GAME05]

For some reason which I couldn't really wrap my head around, crypto seems to work in four-year cycles of climbing and falling. Assuming it happens again, Q2/Q3 will be right around peak time and where I'll be looking to jump out until everyone starts talking about how crypto is dead, at which point I'll jump back in. Though it's funny I've heard someone in the same interview first say "Oh Bitcoin price will stabilize because big investors are jumping in" and then two seconds later say "Buy now because the big investors aren't in it yet".

 

Ellio Trades is a popular youtube channel where he over-hypes something new every day. But his recommendations also do see a bit of a bump from all his followers jumping on board. But the places to buy the weird/obscure ones are complicated and I've heard some warnings as far as leaving your money sitting there making it open to hacking/theft. So right now the process is too complicated for me. Plus I don't know if I trust having any real amount of money on some usb stick.

[homer]

I am assuming that I am a big idiot, because no matter how many times someone explains Bitcoin to me, I still don't really get it.

 

I read I think 3 articles on Blockchain in the last few days and I still don't get it.

[nodakfan17]

I’ve professed support for crypto on BF before, but I’d never give anyone the hard sell. It’s highly speculative and volatile (for now); however, it does put pressure on Central Banks to act more responsibly. For example, Bitcoin use is growing rapidly in Nigeria because people have more faith in Bitcoin than the local currency. Corrupt Central Banks in other parts of the world can also freeze banks accounts with little or no due process. A de-centralized currency like Bitcoin could empower individuals and cut down on government corruption.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-cant-be-stopped-nigerians-look-to-p2p-exchanges-after-crypto-ban%3famp=1

[homer]

I’ve professed support for crypto on BF before, but I’d never give anyone the hard sell. It’s highly speculative and volatile (for now); however, it does put pressure on Central Banks to act more responsibly. For example, Bitcoin use is growing rapidly in Nigeria because people have more faith in Bitcoin than the local currency. Corrupt Central Banks in other parts of the world can also freeze banks accounts with little or no due process. A de-centralized currency like Bitcoin could empower individuals and cut down on government corruption.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-cant-be-stopped-nigerians-look-to-p2p-exchanges-after-crypto-ban%3famp=1

 

I am very interested in blockchain as it apparently has commercial use even if digital currencies don't catch on as actual currencies. I just can't wrap my head around how to explain what it is or does or how it might be useful just yet.

[nate82]

I’ve professed support for crypto on BF before, but I’d never give anyone the hard sell. It’s highly speculative and volatile (for now); however, it does put pressure on Central Banks to act more responsibly. For example, Bitcoin use is growing rapidly in Nigeria because people have more faith in Bitcoin than the local currency. Corrupt Central Banks in other parts of the world can also freeze banks accounts with little or no due process. A de-centralized currency like Bitcoin could empower individuals and cut down on government corruption.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-cant-be-stopped-nigerians-look-to-p2p-exchanges-after-crypto-ban%3famp=1

 

I am very interested in blockchain as it apparently has commercial use even if digital currencies don't catch on as actual currencies. I just can't wrap my head around how to explain what it is or does or how it might be useful just yet.

 

Check these two links out this should explain blockchain about as simply as you can.

 

https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/en/pages/strategy-operations/articles/blockchain-explained.html

[GAME05]

Those aren't more Sesame Street videos, are they:)

[nate82]

Those aren't more Sesame Street videos, are they:)

 

LOL, it would be funny to have the count explain blockchains and the cookie monster to explain internet cookies.

[homer]

I’ve professed support for crypto on BF before, but I’d never give anyone the hard sell. It’s highly speculative and volatile (for now); however, it does put pressure on Central Banks to act more responsibly. For example, Bitcoin use is growing rapidly in Nigeria because people have more faith in Bitcoin than the local currency. Corrupt Central Banks in other parts of the world can also freeze banks accounts with little or no due process. A de-centralized currency like Bitcoin could empower individuals and cut down on government corruption.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-cant-be-stopped-nigerians-look-to-p2p-exchanges-after-crypto-ban%3famp=1

 

I am very interested in blockchain as it apparently has commercial use even if digital currencies don't catch on as actual currencies. I just can't wrap my head around how to explain what it is or does or how it might be useful just yet.

 

Check these two links out this should explain blockchain about as simply as you can.

 

https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/en/pages/strategy-operations/articles/blockchain-explained.html

 

Thank you. I'll check them out.

[thebruce44]

My ETH and IOTA are doing very well over the last month. And looking at the historical cycles, we have a very long way to go this round.

 

I'm not going to try to convince anyone to invest, because it is so volatile. That being said, most of the analysts I follow have the top of the BTC cycle at $250k - $280k. If ETH and other alt coins follow, that could mean ETH at $20,000. I plan to start taking profits at set intervals after BTC hits $100k. If everything crashes before then, so be it- I will still be up from all of my purchases over 2018/19. Getting in now is riskier, but I think can still be profitable. Just don't invest in Dodgecoin.

[nodakfan17]

How do analysts determine a top BTC cycle of $250K-$280K?

 

I’m not skeptical, just genuinely curious.

[thebruce44]

How do analysts determine a top BTC cycle of $250K-$280K?

 

I’m not skeptical, just genuinely curious.

 

The model I've been looking at models scarcity in terms of stock to flow ratio. You will find lots of good information if you Google BTC stock to flow.

 

I won't pretend to fully understand it, but the cyclical nature of BTC seems obvious to me at this point. Essentially I think BTC will be worth more in the coming months than it was worth over the last year when I was buying. I think charting the past cycles can help estimate how this cycle will proceed. Cashing out throughout the run up means you don't need to guess at the peak.

[GAME05]

I definitely agree on the cyclical nature of it. Plus the alternatives don't make near as much sense. Suddenly staying on some high plateau ignores its price history, and I think it's also safe to say it has some sort of value even if it is difficult to wrap your head around.

 

One guy I watch is Dante Aches Crypto (one word), who talks a lot about the cycle and is always reminding people not to hold forever and see their earnings disappear in the dip. Plus I just put more trust in that perspective more than any "to the moon" or "it's rat poison" predictions.

 

I just haven't been able to wrap my head around whether this cycle is predicated on timing (whatever Etherium 2.0 is I have no clue) or more a matter of dipping after it hits some price-point. Either way, Bruce, I think your idea of a slow withdrawal is the smartest one and I'll plan on doing the same. I'm thinking around late summer is when I'll start to pull back. At least that's the timeline people seem to be talking about.

[homer]

I’ve professed support for crypto on BF before, but I’d never give anyone the hard sell. It’s highly speculative and volatile (for now); however, it does put pressure on Central Banks to act more responsibly. For example, Bitcoin use is growing rapidly in Nigeria because people have more faith in Bitcoin than the local currency. Corrupt Central Banks in other parts of the world can also freeze banks accounts with little or no due process. A de-centralized currency like Bitcoin could empower individuals and cut down on government corruption.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-cant-be-stopped-nigerians-look-to-p2p-exchanges-after-crypto-ban%3famp=1

 

I am very interested in blockchain as it apparently has commercial use even if digital currencies don't catch on as actual currencies. I just can't wrap my head around how to explain what it is or does or how it might be useful just yet.

 

Check these two links out this should explain blockchain about as simply as you can.

 

https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/en/pages/strategy-operations/articles/blockchain-explained.html

 

These were great. So in the case of Ethereum....

 

Ethereum is the blockchain and the people along the chain that validate the smart contracts are rewarded in Ether coins. Is that sort of the gist of it?

 

The smart contracts seem to be the commercial part that could really improve efficiency across a multitude of industries.

[thebruce44]

I definitely agree on the cyclical nature of it. Plus the alternatives don't make near as much sense. Suddenly staying on some high plateau ignores its price history, and I think it's also safe to say it has some sort of value even if it is difficult to wrap your head around.

 

One guy I watch is Dante Aches Crypto (one word), who talks a lot about the cycle and is always reminding people not to hold forever and see their earnings disappear in the dip. Plus I just put more trust in that perspective more than any "to the moon" or "it's rat poison" predictions.

 

I just haven't been able to wrap my head around whether this cycle is predicated on timing (whatever Etherium 2.0 is I have no clue) or more a matter of dipping after it hits some price-point. Either way, Bruce, I think your idea of a slow withdrawal is the smartest one and I'll plan on doing the same. I'm thinking around late summer is when I'll start to pull back. At least that's the timeline people seem to be talking about.

 

If you withdraw over time it really doesn't matter if the cycle is based on timing or price. I am in crypto for the long run as I think it is a disruptive technology, so therefore I should be investing for the long term. That being said, I think the question to ask yourself is, if I withdraw now, will I be able to buy the same amount after the bubble bursts for a smaller amount. Yes- it is totally trying to time the market, so hopefully history continues to repeat itself and models are correct. I am not aware of another investment vehicle that has an event built into its protocol that changes its value in fixed intervals...and one that is still relatively unknown technically and with a low barrier to entry- the perfect storm for uninformed moon boys investing because of memes or Elon tweets to further drive the volatility.

 

Anyway, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. We'll see how the next 10 months go.

[nate82]

 

These were great. So in the case of Ethereum....

 

Ethereum is the blockchain and the people along the chain that validate the smart contracts are rewarded in Ether coins. Is that sort of the gist of it?

 

The smart contracts seem to be the commercial part that could really improve efficiency across a multitude of industries.

 

Yes, there are a lot of commercial parts that can be used by using block chain. I believe there is a lot of banking products being developed using the block chain which should make financials more secure.

[wallus]

So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

 

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

 

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?

[nate82]

So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

 

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

 

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?

 

Phoenix is horrible right now with all of the California, New York and other state refuges. The city of Phoenix alone added 80,000 people last year and the housing market is suffering because of this for buyers. If you are seller here it is awesome as prices are up about 200% in nearly every neighborhood. For example a neighbor where I live had their house on the market for 0 days and get 10 offers and the final offer they accepted was for $200k more than what the market value was for houses in this neighborhood go for.

 

So if you are seller in the Phoenix market it is good but if you are a buyer you better be prepared to pay a premium for a house. The 80,000 people added in 2020 which includes people who moved out of the city, this is the highest or one of the highest population increases across the US.

[nodakfan17]

So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

 

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

 

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?

 

I bought my current home in the Green Bay area for $213K in 2015. My current Zillow value is $279K (which I believe is accurate based on comparable sales). That’s about a 5% annualized growth for an area that has experienced a very modest population increase over the past decade. I’m not suggesting it’s overpriced, but there can’t be many deals out there.

[CheezWizHed]

The Twin Cities is nuts. I moved here 4 years ago and houses were being sold the day they were put on the market. I was able to extend up into the $400k range so there was less competition, but the $200-$350k range was fierce. Anything less than $200k and you are buying garbage.

 

And that hasn't changed in 4 years. A friend of mine just sold their place (to move somewhere warmer like Texas...). They had their house on the market for 2 days - they had 22 showings and 6 offers.

[owbc]

It is well-documented that as a country we're not building nearly enough housing to keep up with demand. That said, current surge is mostly caused by low interest rates plus people wanting more space during the pandemic. Here in Seattle the news likes to run stories about people leaving for cheaper 'Zoom towns' but the reality is that our housing prices are even more insane than everywhere else. The median price just hit $800,000.

 

Is it overpriced? It's just supply and demand.

 

Once you have the house, good luck trying to get any work done on it. And in the unlikely event that you can find a contractor, expect to pay 50% premiums due to materials and labor shortages

[wallus]

I have looked into building new as my gf's dad is a home builder. He laughed and said just wait til the bubble crashes as nothing makes sense for investments. So I guess that is what I will do, be ready when the bubble bursts again.

[thebruce44]

I have looked into building new as my gf's dad is a home builder. He laughed and said just wait til the bubble crashes as nothing makes sense for investments. So I guess that is what I will do, be ready when the bubble bursts again.

 

You could be missing out on another 5 years of growth before the correction though.

[wallus]

I have looked into building new as my gf's dad is a home builder. He laughed and said just wait til the bubble crashes as nothing makes sense for investments. So I guess that is what I will do, be ready when the bubble bursts again.

 

You could be missing out on another 5 years of growth before the correction though.

 

I think I just need to wait until they lift the foreclosure ban which throws the whole "supply and demand" claim out the window.