The Investment Thread

[nate82]

And dropped another 800 points today. Lots of uncertainty surrounding the impact this is going to have.

 

Nothing like 2008, however. There are no underlying issues with the financial system. Just like in Trading Places, those buying calls on margin had their pants pulled down and have to cover their margin calls and sell, putting further downward pressure on the markets. Now you're seeing money move from where the anticipated issues will be (anything relating to travel or sourcing from China) to what is not likely to be affected (low interest rates benefit the consumer - buying houses, buying vehicles, remodeling, refinancing, plus boons to the healthcare system, suppliers to healthcare, technology, etc.), and not a broad sell-off.

 

To me the Corona Virus is a minor concern. The change from LIBOR to the new system(s) is what is worrying me. LIBOR is ending by 2022 and the financial institutions are not liking the new system that they will be changing to.

 

A few links about LIBOR:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-libor-transition-analysis-idUSKBN1WN0H4

 

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/is-the-end-of-libor-a-threat-to-financial-stability

[brewcrewdue80]

Another 1000÷pt gain. Ouch.

[superfly]

I guess I’ll be the contrarian and say most of the coronavirus “market fear” is BS and rather much of it was the market beginning to price in Bernie Sanders vs Trump campaign. That kind of unraveled last night and the markets began readjusting again. We’re not out of the woods though most likely.

 

MOD EDIT: removed political opinions. next time's a temp ban

[owbc]

Coronavirus has been going around Seattle for weeks. I’ve talked to several people who probably had it in February but there hasn’t been any testing yet. Expect to see hundreds of confirmed cases in the next week as widespread testing ramps up. Many of the school closures and work from home directives just went out this evening. Say what you want about whether it is dangerous or not but there’s going to be a huge hit to the economy...at least in the short term.

[homer]

Annnnnd back down 1000 points today so far. Real see-saw action these days.

[brewcrewdue80]

I could use a 1200pt or more session loss. Moved conservative last year in April as it approached All time high. This referring to 401k. Should finally be able to buy back what I moved and more.

 

 

Hey got what I hoped for, but now methinks DJ is headed for much bigger drop. I did put back some bonds in to stock funds today because I told myself I would below 24.5k. What a dip!

[JackNicholson1974]

Bizarre day for sure. I was positive 16% today, but that is because for years I have been heavily invested in $ATHX a company that is close to breaking out with their product, one of the indications it treats is ARDS which is essentially one of the complications from COVID-19 that leads to death.

[RollieTime]

Circuit breaker tripped twice in 4 days after never needing to be used since implementation. This is a pretty wild drop the last few weeks and I’m not sure it’s going to stop quite yet. Over 26% drop for DOW the last few weeks.

[nodakfan17]

I haven’t dipped my toe in yet, but came close yesterday when Disney, Target, and P&G all got below $100. However, it looks increasingly likely that some folks may lose their jobs in the coming months. That really takes the fun out of what merely seemed like a ‘great buying opportunity’ a few weeks ago.

[brewcrewdue80]

I haven’t dipped my toe in yet, but came close yesterday when Disney, Target, and P&G all got below $100. However, it looks increasingly likely that some folks may lose their jobs in the coming months. That really takes the fun out of what merely seemed like a ‘great buying opportunity’ a few weeks ago.

 

With all the Closings, Cancellations, travel bans, etc, the World economy has to only continue down. I seen a post on my Facebook that early indications from recovered are dealing with20-30% lung damage, and that if you smoke or Vape it is worse.

Think I read what we are seeing is called a Dead-Cats bounce. I don't see any way how the Markets can be any higher with all this stoppage over the next 30days. Market has to be lower than it stands now 30 days from now. Just wish we didn't have the insta down/ups or overnights, vs a long slow gradual decline. Losing 10% in one day is just brutal, and many of the stocks are I watch were actually down 15-20% yesterday. 1% here 1.5% there, gradual vs this overnight 5-6.5% start to the day.

[AKCheesehead]

Metals are plummeting. Does anyone have a source they would recommend from their own experience buying and selling?

[DHonks]

So far made some nice money simply day trading 1 stock over the last 2 weeks. Bought and sold it 3 times. Guessing Monday and Tuesday will be down, so I’ll target a low level Monday, and hope to add to it lower Tuesday

[nodakfan17]

Metals are plummeting. Does anyone have a source they would recommend from their own experience buying and selling?

What’s your objective? If it’s to speculate, I’d go with the iShares Silver Trust ETF (ticker: SLV). The transaction costs on trading physical gold and silver will eat into your profits. Do you have sales tax in Alaska? It’s a killer in Wisconsin for trading physical precious metals. You pay a 5% premium to buy, but you don’t get it back when you sell. The state keeps it.

[nodakfan17]

New financial goal for 2020: Keep job.

[AKCheesehead]

Metals are plummeting. Does anyone have a source they would recommend from their own experience buying and selling?

What’s your objective? If it’s to speculate, I’d go with the iShares Silver Trust ETF (ticker: SLV). The transaction costs on trading physical gold and silver will eat into your profits. Do you have sales tax in Alaska? It’s a killer in Wisconsin for trading physical precious metals. You pay a 5% premium to buy, but you don’t get it back when you sell. The state keeps it.

 

No statewide sales tax, just city sales taxes in some towns. There are dealerships over in anchorage for gold and silver, and no city tax there. But that’s a 400 mile plane ride away.

 

My objective of course is buy low and sell high. Just following prices it seems like there may be a good opportunity right now, trying to figure out a smooth way to do it and of course most importantly not get burned.

[nodakfan17]

Rates to zero ... yikes.

[Jaylyn]

Rates to zero ... yikes.

They just used their last bullet!! smh

[pacopete4]

How will that rate affect mortgage rates? Or won’t it?

[nodakfan17]

How will that rate affect mortgage rates? Or won’t it?

It won’t. At least not in the short term.

 

Most banks have full refi pipelines and are going to be hesitant to book new volume at anything less than 3%. But when their pipelines thin out, who knows?

[PeaveyFury]

It'll cause mortgage rates to decline eventually, though not as quickly as shorter-term rates.

[nodakfan17]

Rates to zero ... yikes.

They just used their last bullet!! smh

They should never have cut rates three times in 2019 when the economy was humming along just fine.

[BMuch25]

Rates to zero ... yikes.

They just used their last bullet!! smh

They should never have cut rates three times in 2019 when the economy was humming along just fine.

 

Funny, they should never have raised rates 4 times in 2018 while simultaneously Quantitative Tightening.

 

From 2012 - 2016 economists where looking for one rate hike per year, but Yellen continued to sit on her hands. Slow and steady would have been a better solution.

[wallus]

Rates to zero ... yikes.

They just used their last bullet!! smh

 

Could always go negative...

[owbc]

There’s no way out of this now. This is on the scale of 9/11. The economic hit is going to be massive and it is going to take years to get out of the hole.

[nodakfan17]

There’s no way out of this now. This is on the scale of 9/11. The economic hit is going to be massive and it is going to take years to get out of the hole.

At this point, I’d take a 9/11-type recession. Unemployment ‘only’ increased from 4%-6%. At least there’s a bottom.