Player Comps for Brewers Prospects

[Eye Black]

I have been thinking about starting a thread like this for a while, but seeing Adam McCalvy's comparison between Keon Broxton and Eric Davis' low hand placement pre-swing load comparisons (something I had been ruminating on recently) pushed me over the edge. Player comparisons are so intriguing, but can also prove reckless. Player comps are often given using past players who were All-Star caliber, and in some cases even HOF players. In these cases the comparisons represent the absolute ceiling for a player, their top 5% outcome. Comparisons can also border on being dangerously generic for outlier attributes (i.e. tall pitching prospect with Randy Johnson, or shorter pitching prospect with a good fastball with Pedro Martinez). Still, the comparisons can provide value to understand successful paths that have been forged by players with similar skills sets, or strengths/weaknesses. Certainly using player comparisons is not a perfect science, and in many cases the comparison is very specific to a single trait or skill a player possesses (i.e. Trout-ian size neck).

 

My goal for this thread is two fold. First, hopefully it sparks some discussion of prospect player comps and their perceived worthiness (or lack thereof). Second, I wanted to provide a place where we could share and collect player comps attributed to Brewers prospects. Below I have listed a few of the Brewers prospects with comps I've heard. Feel free to comment, or share additional Brewers prospect player comparisons whether an original thought or something you have heard from another source.

 

Lewis Brinson

On a recent Baseball America podcast they compared Brinson to Adam Jones. I believe it was John Manual who repeated the comp a couple of times. Bernie Pleskoff in an article on Lewis Brinson compared his game as similar to Chris Young. In the BF.net Lewis Brinson thread some posters compared Brinson to Mike Cameron. I always find it interesting when a player offers up insight on who they grew up watching or emulating, and in Brinson's case he has noted that he grew up idolizing Juan Pierre.

 

Corey Ray

You can't discuss Corey Ray comps without immediately thinking about Harold Reynolds famously (or infamously?) dropping repeated Odibe McDowell comps on Ray at every possible opportunity. With Ray the comparison that surfaces the most often is Ray Lankford. That comparison seems to make a lot of sense. Another comparison I have thought made sense was Brett Gardner, although others have pointed out to me that Ray may not possess Gardner's speed. Some have asked Corey Ray himself and he brings up two names, he discusses working closely in the past with Curtis Granderson and has also mentioned that he patterns his game after Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Trent Clark

I don't have much in the way of Clark comps, but I have never been able to get the "Troutian Neck" comparison out of my mind. Obviously there is much, much more to being a great baseball player than neck size.

 

Luis Ortiz

Since he was in high school I've thought Ortiz's connection to Matt Garza was interesting, but obviously they have different physiques and pitching styles. The not-so-complimentary body type comp recently placed on Ortiz by Fangraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen was Rich Garces.

 

Isan Diaz

I don't own the Baseball Prospectus annual, but I did come across the comparisons listed for Diaz in this year's BP annual. They were Corey Seager, Addison Russell, and Trevor Story. Maybe someone with access to the annual can give some context regarding whether all comps listed lean towards far-fetched highest ceiling possible comparisons, but obviously those are high praise.

[NolanBratt]

Some that initially come to mind:

 

 

Lewis Brinson -- Mike Cameron

 

Brett Phillips -- Albert Almora w/ less average

 

Trent Clark -- Nori Aoki as a Brewer

 

Luis Ortiz -- Carlos Carrasco

 

Lucas Erceg -- Matt Carpenter

 

Marcos Diplan -- poor man's Yordano Ventura

 

Corbin Burnes -- Braden Shipley

 

Ryan Cordell -- Bubba Starling

 

Phil Bickford -- Tyler Clippard

 

Mauricio Dubon -- Adeiny Hechavarria

[markedman5]

Ortiz....Bartolo Colon

[sheetskout]

The Brinson/Mike Cameron comps are valid. Roughly the same size and even look similar in the box. I see some similarities with Adam Jones as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

Erceg- Ted Williams

[Eye Black]

Erceg- Ted Williams

Ha, [sarcasm]obviously anything less would be a disappointment[/sarcasm].

 

On a recent Fangraphs podcast Dave Cameron compared the offensive profile of Byron Buxton to Lewis Brinson. Buxton is only 6 months older than Brinson. It brings up a good question, barring injuries which player would you bet on to develop into a better offensive player? Both have had some struggle with contact, and I think I would bet on Brinson to develop more power. I think a lot of Buxton's value will be tied to his defense, but I don't think I would pick him as likely to become a better offensive player than what I hope for Brinson to develop into. Curious which player others would choose offensively?

[TooLiveBrew]

Great idea for a thread, EyeBlack!

 

The Broxton comp I'd been thinking about in recent weeks (due to the lowering of his hands), at least in terms of offense, is Rickie Weeks.

[sveumrules]

Dubon = infield version of Ender Inciarte.

[MrTPlush]

Dubon = infield version of Ender Inciarte.

 

Inciarte has zero power though.

[homer]

Isan Diaz's swing reminds me of Robinson Canoe's.

[sveumrules]

Inciarte has zero power though.

 

Before posting a .199 ISO in AA & a .197 ISO in the AFL Dubon hadn't really shown any power either. ISOs ranged from .051 to .127 with a career mark of .080 up to that point.

 

Ender's minor league ISOs ranged from .071 to .129 with a career mark of .088.

 

I'm hoping that the jump in power production is at least somewhat sustainable for Mauricio but even if it isn't the high contact rates & plus speed (more Inciarte similarities) should give him a pretty decent floor for offensive production.

[MrTPlush]

Inciarte has zero power though.

 

Before posting a .199 ISO in AA & a .197 ISO in the AFL Dubon hadn't really shown any power either. ISOs ranged from .051 to .127 with a career mark of .080 up to that point.

 

Ender's minor league ISOs ranged from .071 to .129 with a career mark of .088.

 

I'm hoping that the jump in power production is at least somewhat sustainable for Mauricio but even if it isn't the high contact rates & plus speed (more Inciarte similarities) should give him a pretty decent floor for offensive production.

 

I read that as Diaz in the original tweet. My apologizes

[MrTPlush]

Isan Diaz's swing reminds me of Robinson Canoe's.

 

Diaz gets that comp a lot.

[MrTPlush]

Great idea for a thread, EyeBlack!

 

The Broxton comp I'd been thinking about in recent weeks (due to the lowering of his hands), at least in terms of offense, is Rickie Weeks.

 

Hmm that's an interesting one. If Broxton can keep the strikeouts reasonable that type of profile could be a reasonable ceiling offensively(obvious peak Weeks before the injuries). Of course Broxton has the opportunity to provide a lot defensively and on the basepaths too.

[yfinn6]

Great idea for a thread, EyeBlack!

 

The Broxton comp I'd been thinking about in recent weeks (due to the lowering of his hands), at least in terms of offense, is Rickie Weeks.

 

Hmm that's an interesting one. If Broxton can keep the strikeouts reasonable that type of profile could be a reasonable ceiling offensively(obvious peak Weeks before the injuries). Of course Broxton has the opportunity to provide a lot defensively and on the basepaths too.

 

Weeks and Broxton have two different swings in my mind. One thing it seems that Broxton's hand adjustment has done is allowed his bat a longer path through the zone so his timing doesn't have to be exact. Weeks was more down and through the zone, from what I remember and it forced him to have almost perfect timing. Of course that also meant when he hit the ball he had awesome backspin. Again, I could be wrong, but this is just how I remember Weeks' swing vs what Broxton is doing now.

[Eye Black]

Reviving this thread because I enjoy having a place to record player comps.

 

The newest Baseball America Prospect Handbook includes this phrase regarding Tristen Lutz: “Lutz is explosive, with tools across the board. He has a muscular frame that evokes a young Matt Holliday, runs and throws well, and has a chance to be average or better in all five tools.

[clancyphile]

Troy Stokes

I think there is a physical resemblance to Jose Altuve - Stokes is 5'8" 182 pounds. While he plays outfield as opposed to the middle infield, Stokes has shown speed (95 career SB) and good OBP skills (156 BB in 1211 ABs). He's recently developed more power (20 HR in 2017, 9 the previous three years).

 

I think offensively and defensively, he comps to Brady Clark as a floor, but he could be a home-grown Christian Yelich.

[sheetskout]

Time to add Keston Hiura. Who I think is difficult to comp.

 

At first his size and build seem pretty similar to Daniel Murphy but Murphy is a left-handed hitter. The next logical player comp. is D.J. LaMahieu but I think Hiura will hit for more power ultimately (LeMahieu a much better fielder as well). I think maybe the closest is Schoop with Hiura maybe not quite reaching that power ceiling. Thoughts?

[Eye Black]

Time to add Keston Hiura. Who I think is difficult to comp.

 

At first his size and build seem pretty similar to Daniel Murphy but Murphy is a left-handed hitter. The next logical player comp. is D.J. LaMahieu but I think Hiura will hit for more power ultimately (LeMahieu a much better fielder as well). I think maybe the closest is Schoop with Hiura maybe not quite reaching that power ceiling. Thoughts?

Well the first time we tried the Hiura comp exercise the names mentioned included:

 

Kolton Wong

Wade Boggs

Jose Altuve

Craig Biggio

Honus Wagner

Jeff Kent

Rogers Hornsby

 

I think it’ safe to say some of those were said in jest.

 

Coming up with a new set of comps for Hiura is probably a good idea.