Orlando Arcia's Hitting Ability (And/Or the Lack There of)

[3and2Fastball]

I know it is just a week or so into Spring Training, and I know that he is just 22 years old, but does anyone think that Arcia can really hit MLB pitching?

 

I am not the world's foremost authority on hitting (duh) and Darnell Coles has forgotten more about Baseball than I will ever know, but I have coached at the high school level and played the game (I know, who cares). I see nothing about Arcia's hitting mechanics, his approach at the plate, his stance, anything honestly other than pure athletic ability & hand/eye coordination that looks like a guy who could hit over .230 in MLB. Meanwhile he doesn't walk that much so that .230 could be a .290 OBP

 

Based on his fielding ability we do know that he has truly elite level hand/eye coordination, but can that alone translate into a passable MLB hitter? He looks like a guy who should have spent the winter overhauling his entire approach at the plate, his stance, his swing, everything and...just...didn't

[adambr2]

Depends what your expectations are, I guess. Arcia was always going to be a glove first SS. But he's got a career .742 OPS in the minors, so we're not talking about a horrible bat here. And like you said, he's only 22. There's likely still some projection in that bat as he develops. It's not at all uncommon to see a kid struggle in his first 200 or so MLB at-bats, and while he struggled he wasn't completely overmatched either.

 

If his eventual ceiling is gold glove caliber shortstop with a .700-.725 OPS, that will be a quality player. I think he'll be fine.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't know about expectations, but my "hope" was that he could be a .270/.330 hitter with 30 Doubles, 30 to maybe even 40 SB guy with a ceiling of a few years hitting .307/.347 like he did in AA, along with Gold Glove defense. i.e. living up to the "Top Prospect" status

 

If he is Alcides Escobar 2.0 that certainly isn't a bust

 

I will remain hopeful

[adambr2]

Meh, Alcides Escobar 2.0 wouldn't be a bust, but I'd be disappointed. Escobar has had 3 nice years sprinkled in to a bunch of years when he's been basically replacement level.

 

Jean Segura 2.0 would be fine provided we get the SS version of last year's Jean.

[MrTPlush]

Arcia was always going to be a glove first SS.

 

Maybe when he was still down in A ball. Once he had the big year and shot up prospect rankings he was suppose to (hopefully) be a glove and bat SS. That is why he was a Top 15 MLB prospect.

[Austin Tatious]

He's got a long way to go at the plate, and it's fair to be concerned, but he does have good quickness in his swing. I am still hopeful he's a .270 hitter. From there, the glove makes him a really nice player.

 

I will say this. I like that there is no end to Stearns' focus on acquiring middle of the diamond ballplayers. If Arcia wets the bed permanently, we've got Dubon, and so on. Villar is still here.

[sveumrules]

I think everyone was kind of underwhelmed when Orlando hit 267/320/404 at Colorado Springs last year but if he were to reproduce those numbers in Milwaukee this year I think everyone would be pretty encouraged. Baseball is funny.

[gregmag]

If we're going to make anything of small samples, he improved his OPS from .565 in 104 August PA to .691 in 112 Sept/Oct PA. I think that's consistent with my eye test (FWIW) and IIRC what most people were saying, which was that he looked lost at first but looked much better once he got his feet under him. If we put any stock in that improvement, it's very encouraging. Another modest step forward and he's at .725. Another substantial step forward and he's at .750-.775, which I wouldn't sneeze at for say his age-26 season. He has a ton of time and a decent foundation to build on.

[brewcrewdue80]

Half a year and giving concern towards a 22/23yr old? It's not just overall hitting improvement that will come (look at Villar,Broxton, even Santana) but also his body maturing and filling out. He's going to tap in to some more HRs than Escobar ever has. He uses the opposite field, which bodes well at this stage. Im sticking to my original proclamation of him, the Franchise's Derek Jeter the next 12 years or more.

[Ennder]

I have never seen anything in his bat that suggests it will bring value and that includes the minor leagues. His batting eye isn't great, his power is pretty average for a SS, he isn't all that fast.

 

On the other hand he has been young for every level and he hasn't failed at any of them so there is plenty of reason to believe that more will come. There just isn't any proof that it will.

 

It is very plausible he turns into a 35 doubles, 12 HR type guy with a decent average and great defense. That has a ton of value at SS.

[jerichoholicninja]

I have zero expectations for his hitting. He had one good year in the minors and followed it up with a poor year in Colorado Springs where he should have been able to put up some inflated numbers. His value is in his glove and if he can keep his OPS north of .700 he'll be worth holding on to through his team controlled years. But for the love of god Craig please never hit him higher than 7th.

[molitor fan]

If we're going to make anything of small samples, he improved his OPS from .565 in 104 August PA to .691 in 112 Sept/Oct PA. I think that's consistent with my eye test (FWIW) and IIRC what most people were saying, which was that he looked lost at first but looked much better once he got his feet under him. If we put any stock in that improvement, it's very encouraging. Another modest step forward and he's at .725. Another substantial step forward and he's at .750-.775, which I wouldn't sneeze at for say his age-26 season. He has a ton of time and a decent foundation to build on.

 

 

Gregmag brings the goods again....not certain why people are so dour on Arcia's offense...I think he will be good this year on both ends

[bork]

People seem to forget his 800 OPS as a 21 year old in the pitcher friendly Southern League 2 years ago.

[3and2Fastball]

Never mind, he's hitting .308/.400/.462 now in Spring Training, all is good

 

On a serious note, I hope that many of you are right. Arcia living up to the Top Prospect projections would be huge for the Crew

[FVBrewerFan]

People seem to forget his 800 OPS as a 21 year old in the pitcher friendly Southern League 2 years ago.

 

No, I don't think anyone has forgotten that. In fact, that's why a lot of us who are concerned about his bat have some hope.

 

Last season can't just be ignored. I mean, when .691 in Sept. is mentioned as a big improvement, that is telling. His ceiling is never going to be .850+ He will never walk enough and hit enough HRs to get there. But that's ok. If he can develop into an elite SS defensively, and hit .750 I will take that all day long. And yes, I do think he CAN get there, it's just that I'm not convinced yet.

[And That]

Arcia's career minor league wRC+ is 109, which is not only pretty good, it is pretty good while generally being much younger than the competition. While I don't think there's any reasonable expectation that he turns into a Carlos Correa type hitter, I'd bet that his elite hand/eye coordination will keep him from being a Daniel Descalso/Alexei Amarista type hitter, either.

[brewcrewdue80]

So he is certainly struggling this Spring Training. He'd have 58 days of service time. I wonder if the team would consider starting him in AAA if he's still showing struggles at the plate through all of ST? It'd be what? 72days? to rewind his clock an added year? You have Perez and Gennett who along with Villar can certainly fill you 2b/SS while you've sent him down.

1-13 with a walk this week. So this idea starts to set in based on the team's flexibility.

 

Of course there's also the Eric Thames concern where Shaw winds up at 1b and Arcia is necessary for SS.

[pacopete4]

So he is certainly struggling this Spring Training. He'd have 58 days of service time. I wonder if the team would consider starting him in AAA if he's still showing struggles at the plate through all of ST? It'd be what? 72days? to rewind his clock an added year? You have Perez and Gennett who along with Villar can certainly fill you 2b/SS while you've sent him down.

1-13 with a walk this week. So this idea starts to set in based on the team's flexibility.

 

Of course there's also the Eric Thames concern where Shaw winds up at 1b and Arcia is necessary for SS.

 

 

Naw with that thinking, we best just start the season with Erceg in our infield. He's killing it in ST. He got some reps at shortstop too. It's perfect!

[FVBrewerFan]

It's not just ST. He didn't hit well in AAA last year, didn't hit well when he got called up, didn't hit well in short season ball, and now ST.

 

He was brought up too soon, and I don't think starting him in AAA is a crazy idea. Do I think that will happen though? No.

[Ennder]

Since we are so deep in the minors at SS I think I'd rather just see how he grows for a couple of years and if the bat never comes around just re-evaluate him when the next guy is ready.

[monty57]

It's not just ST. He didn't hit well in AAA last year, didn't hit well when he got called up, didn't hit well in short season ball, and now ST.

 

He was brought up too soon, and I don't think starting him in AAA is a crazy idea. Do I think that will happen though? No.

 

I agree. It wouldn't be a bad idea to start him in AAA, but I don't think there's any chance it happens. Personnel-wise, all we would need to do is move Villar back to SS, and platoon Gennett/Perez at 2B, and we'd probably keep Rivera or DeJesus as backup SS. If there was any chance of this happening, they would have Villar spending some time at SS, with Genentt playing more 2B. This isn't happening, so there seems to be no chance they'll start Arcia at AAA.

 

That said, if he isn't ready, then he shouldn't be up. I hope that the new regime cares more for the long-term benefit to the team and the player than the short-term cares of the "casual fan." I have faith in Stearns, and it seems that Attanasio has learned from past mistakes, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they believe that Arcia is ready, and playing in the majors is better for him and the team for the long-term than having him take the experience he got last year to Colorado to hone his skills so he will come back to the Brewers better ready to help them win.

[And That]

Since we are so deep in the minors at SS

They have Dubon, but after that the depth drops off pretty quickly. Neither Diaz nor Lara are generally thought to be shortstops long term (2B, 3B respectively). Beyond that there are backup types like Rivera, Blake Allemand, and Luis Aviles. J.C. Carmona has upside, but he hasn't had a pro plate appearance yet.

[jerichoholicninja]

He never really was a great hitter in the minors outside of one year in Huntsville. Even in that one year he had 3 great months to go along with 3 so-so months. You can say he was young for every level he's played at but that doesn't change the numbers he put up. I personally have never had any expectations for his hitting. Give me a .720 OPS with stellar defense for 6 years and then have some other team overpay for declining defense and a putrid bat.

[And That]

He never really was a great hitter in the minors outside of one year in Huntsville. Even in that one year he had 3 great months to go along with 3 so-so months. You can say he was young for every level he's played at but that doesn't change the numbers he put up.

Again, his minor league career wRC+ is 109, which is above average. He has been young for his leagues, and has hit well over the course of his career.

[monty57]

He wouldn't have been as highly touted if he was simply a guy who could play excellent defense but couldn't hit. That's what Rivera is, and there are guys like that all over the minors.

 

He has the potential to be a good player. I just wonder if right now he and the Brewers are better off with him in the MLB lineup every day or if he could use more time in AAA. I hope he's up because the Brewers truly believe that playing in the majors is the best thing for his development, and not because they want to show the fans one of their well-known prospects to keep them interested.

 

It seems to me like we're trading in a year of his prime (when hopefully we'll be a good team) for a year when he's still not quite ready as a hitter (and we're not competing for the playoffs).