Villar passed up extension

[monty57]

After watching him last year, suggesting that Villar is not a great defender isn't hating on him, it's just pointing out something that seems pretty obvious.

 

I'm very glad we got him, and think he is an upgrade over Gennett. He just hasn't been a very good defender, and I hope he can improve on that. If he does, then he will be a very good player.

[JohnBriggs12]

We are going to be playing Game Three of the entire season this evening. Can the Villar haters please just take a breath and give the man at least two weeks worth of games?

 

When he gets through one game without costing his team a win with a bad defensively play, a mental lapse or a boneheaded baserunning mistake I see no reason to "take a breath".

[Thurston Fluff]

We are going to be playing Game Three of the entire season this evening. Can the Villar haters please just take a breath and give the man at least two weeks worth of games?

 

When he gets through one game without costing his team a win with a bad defensively play, a mental lapse or a boneheaded baserunning mistake I see no reason to "take a breath".

 

No game is ever lost on one play. Sure sometimes a bad play at a critical time amplifies the mistake but every game has dozens of mistakes in it that made that mistake look so critical. Pitchers fail to hit their spots, batters strike out on a meatball pitch down the middle or swing at pitches well out of the zone and catchers fail to properly frame a pitch turning strike three into ball four every game. The key is to reduce those mistakes so the cumulative effect doesn't cost the game. I don't think anyone thinks Villar is going to win us games with his defense but he was not brought in to. He was brought in to upgrade the team's overall talent. In that respect he did.

[endaround]

After watching him last year, suggesting that Villar is not a great defender isn't hating on him, it's just pointing out something that seems pretty obvious.

 

I'm very glad we got him, and think he is an upgrade over Gennett. He just hasn't been a very good defender, and I hope he can improve on that. If he does, then he will be a very good player.

 

Except he really won't be.

 

A few things:

 

1) Villar's UZR/150 of -22.5 at SS is the worst since at least 2000. He's not just bad, he's approaching Braun at 3B bad. He likely can be somewhat less horrendous at 2B but that is still a huge deficit.

 

2). Villar's bat is solid but not special at 2B compared to SS. His wRC+ of 118 would rank #10 at 2B in 2016. Which puts him in solid starter category not All Star. And that is with decent defense.

 

3). Villar is about to turn 26. So his defensive peak is likely already in the past. His bat might pick up, but he already had a BABIP of .373 last year which can expect to regress.

 

Villar is intriguing but there was a reason why a SS who had a wRC+ for 109 was available for basically nothing.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'll give him a pass on defense for a while at a somewhat new position but he's the same dumb baserunner he was before so far.

[DHonks]

Villar is from DR. His offensive skill set is ahead of many fellow players from Latin America in that he actually knows how to work the count and walk. I'm willing to give him time with the defense. As people said in the Opening Day thread, he's young. He statistically shouldn't peak for 3-6 years. We've got a keeper. People are furious after his first day. We experienced about 40 of those each year with Weeks at 2b.

[brewcrewdue80]

After watching him last year, suggesting that Villar is not a great defender isn't hating on him, it's just pointing out something that seems pretty obvious.

 

I'm very glad we got him, and think he is an upgrade over Gennett. He just hasn't been a very good defender, and I hope he can improve on that. If he does, then he will be a very good player.

 

Except he really won't be.

 

A few things:

 

1) Villar's UZR/150 of -22.5 at SS is the worst since at least 2000. He's not just bad, he's approaching Braun at 3B bad. He likely can be somewhat less horrendous at 2B but that is still a huge deficit.

 

2). Villar's bat is solid but not special at 2B compared to SS. His wRC+ of 118 would rank #10 at 2B in 2016. Which puts him in solid starter category not All Star. And that is with decent defense.

 

3). Villar is about to turn 26. So his defensive peak is likely already in the past. His bat might pick up, but he already had a BABIP of .373 last year which can expect to regress.

 

Villar is intriguing but there was a reason why a SS who had a wRC+ for 109 was available for basically nothing.

 

 

About that 10th. ranking for 2b. 2b has had some Out of normal Batting or expectations for him to rank after the first 9.

Expected would fit Altuve, Cano, Zobrist and one of Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler. 2 older guys who can have a great year or fall off completely at any point. Daniel Murphy magically found a bat during the Mets' Postseason run and continued last year. Same can be said for Jean Segura, Rockies DJ Lemahieu, and Dozier. Matt Carpenter played 40games at 2b and isn't really a 2b priority.

 

Now Jason Kipnis or Roughned Odor could without surprise beat a 118wRC+ so I'll add 1 vs. the names I'm removing.

 

All in all that would put Villar 6th to 10th for everyday 2b. But 4th is very reachable to be in the rankings. I don't expect Dozier to hit 42HRs again. Jean Segura to bat .319 or Lemahieu to bat .348 Kinsler and Pedroia being age 33+ to both repeat a higher season than both have had in last 3seasons.

 

What Villar did last year by the numbers is repeatable. He didn't have that .319 or higher season. He didn't have 42HRs when 28 had been previous best. The one thing you would say he can't repeat is 62 SBs And that stat isn't affecting his wRC+.

 

We can knock Villar on his defense, but I'd guess Pedroia/Kinsler/Dozier/Murphy/Kipnis/ and Odor, at least half would be lacking defensively as well.

[BarneyStinston]

Right now, I'm happy to see a guy who is basically a hybrid between Carlos Gomez and Yuni Betancourt pass up an extension.

[Noche]

Right now, I'm happy to see a guy who is basically a hybrid between Carlos Gomez and Yuni Betancourt pass up an extension.

 

6 games lol

[lynchp]

Hard to believe a middle infielder has 15 K's in 30 at bats. Need to have a higher on base percentage from the middle infield. Generally you give up a little something to have a good defense up the middle. Brewers giving up the defense for offense but not getting the offense.

[And That]

Going to go out on a limb here and guess Villar doesn't finish the season with a 48.4% strikeout rate, a 3.2% walk rate, or a .231 BABIP. The defense remains worrisome, but he's not a bad offensive player. He's going through an awful stretch that just happens to be at the beginning of the season. If this were happening in August after putting up a 750 OPS for the first 4 months of the year, it's probably not a huge topic.

[brewerfan82]

All players go through ugly stretches, he had similar stretches in last year's campaign (including to open the season):

 

April 4-10: 8 Ks in 17 ABs (47% K rate)

June 28 - July 5: 15 Ks in 31 ABs (48%)

August 12-19: 13 Ks in 27 ABs (48%)

September 11-18: 12 Ks in 26 ABs (46%)

 

Even the good ones go through stretches:

 

Mike Trout August 4-15: 16 Ks in 30 ABs (53%)

Manny Machado May 21-29: 14 Ks in 30 ABs (47%)

Nolan Arenado June 27 - July 2: 10 Ks in 22 ABs (45%)

Kris Bryant July 30 - August 5: 10 Ks in 21 ABs (48%)

 

A bad 2 series stretch is way too small to draw many conclusions from. Doesn't hurt to take notice, but I wouldn't hit the panic button yet.

[monty57]

His .167 BA is still higher than Santana (.111), Perez (.095), Broxton (.091), and Nieuwenhuis (.077).

 

It happens. They'll all improve.

[Lee16]

At this point I assume he actually wanted to sign the extension but just kept dropping the pen.

[crickets]

At this point I assume he actually wanted to sign the extension but just kept dropping the pen.

 

I thought I read in the offseason that he got caught stealing a pen from walgreens in order to sign the contract, thus the reason for not signing it.

[rickh150]

Like every game so far has been something....

1. not fielding a ball and getting an error

2. not fielding grounder/liner he could have made (not an error) and extending the inning allowing runs

3. not turning an easy two (not an error) and extending the inning

4. getting picked off

5. not covering the base on throw from catcher AND right fielder

 

 

#1 and #2 are fairly common for fielders; #4 is common for really good base runners; however, #3 and #5 are really concerning. Sadly, his defense wasn't the issue last year nearly as much as his little league base running (although it did improve drastically after he was benched).

 

Also, I believe he is the only player to start in each game.

[TURBO]

We might, MIGHT, all be very glad he didn't sign that extension after all...

[Jenkins5]

Reliving Segura situation over again this 1st week. Turn down big contact & then drops off.

 

However, Villar I believe will bounce back. He never got going in spring & just seems out of whack right now. Overall Brewers as a whole outside very few (Shaw, Aguilar, Braun, Pina and Thames) have been pretty terrible.

 

In the end, Villar's job is to raise stock this year & maybe next to clean up in trade. While he is one of my favorites on the team.... Dubon & Diaz will be knocking soon. Diaz I feel is the future.

[Ennder]

Russell Martin should be released by the Blue Jays, he is 0 for 12. Miguel Cabrera is 2/17 with a .404 OPS, he is done, just too old.

 

I mean these sample sizes are worthless for judging players.

[MrTPlush]

Segura dropped off before he was ever offered an extension. The second half of his big year left a lot to be desired.

[adambr2]

I know that small sample defensive metrics are basically meaningless, but I still found it incredible that Fangraphs grades out Villar as a slightly above average defender at 2nd for his first 10 games.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10071&position=SS

[homer]

If this stretch of futility happens in July instead of April no one even notices.

[adambr2]

If this stretch of futility happens in July instead of April no one even notices.

 

While I do think he's struggled at 2nd, I think it's probably been a little overstated because we've had him under such a microscope.

 

I thought yesterday was probably the best and most complete game he had defensively at 2nd even though he went 0 for 4. Hopefully he can build on it.

[monty57]

If this stretch of futility happens in July instead of April no one even notices.

 

Only because they will be used to it by then ;-)

[endaround]

I know that small sample defensive metrics are basically meaningless, but I still found it incredible that Fangraphs grades out Villar as a slightly above average defender at 2nd for his first 10 games.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10071&position=SS

 

There aren't any defensive grades yet. The top defensive score is just the average weight given for playing 2B in WAR calculations.