Villar passed up extension

[bjkrautk]

I have to wonder if the move from SS to 2b is at least a partial factor in the hesitance to buyout FA year(s) on Villar's part. We know he can play shortstop...and shortstop pays a good deal more on the open market, for the same offensive production.

[adambr2]

Did we ever hear how many years? Tough to really comment without knowing. But if it's a 5/20 or 4/20 he should definitely say no as that is a serious lowball and try to negotiate more. Probably shouldn't walk away from the table but he should counter to 4/34-38, something like that.

 

It's really not a lowball, though. It's the sacrifice of some long-term riches for security. They would never offer him 4/34 or 4/38 right now. If the Brewers do nothing they'll probably get him for 4/$30.6M in a best case scenario for Villar (600K or so this year, and $8M, $10M, and $12M in 3 arby years.)

 

But that's a projection that assumes Villar remains as productive as he has been last year. He would need to take a lower amount to compensate for the risk of course, thus the lower offer.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, my apologies for overspeaking a bit. I hadn't looked totally into how many arby years he had left etc, and shouldn't have even spoken specifics about years. What I was really getting at is the total dollars aspect of it to be closer to 40 so it is 'set for life' type security. Even if that means buying out another year or two of FA for him. I'm sure you're right in the specific of the arby amounts and if that math comes out to low 20s then it's not a lowball offer per se. But if I'm him I'd maybe add on another year or two to get that total guaranteed $ up since 20 mil post tax/agent isn't quite live like a truly rich person for the next 50-60 years money. I think you know what I'm getting at.

[brewcrewdue80]

Did we ever hear how many years? Tough to really comment without knowing. But if it's a 5/20 or 4/20 he should definitely say no as that is a serious lowball and try to negotiate more. Probably shouldn't walk away from the table but he should counter to 4/34-38, something like that.

 

Which if at 4years, doesn't that just take him to the end of his team control?

 

I said earlier somewhere else, I find it wrong to just sign an early extension through 1 year of FA. If we are trying to extend someone it should include 2 years of FA and an option or 2 beyond it. Do you think you are signing a player to be a fixture for years to come in to a playoff run? Lock him up for a longer time. 1 year beyond team control/Arbitration yeah, I'd wait year to year too after a 4WAR season. Segura just got 6.2mil 2nd arb year. Based on the typical growth of Arb that's about 11.5 next year with a similar season. That'd be 22.5million then for his career with only half being of Value. And FA payday forthcoming.

 

You've gotta take a bigger risk than 20mil for 4 or especially 5years. Rickie Weeks got 180PAs last year for 1.5mil. He hasn't had a productive year since 2011 after we extended him 3years. There's going to be money for Villar to make in 5 seasons regardless what he does now til then. And with how Arb works seeing Chris Carter having an 8.2mil projection for his 2nd arb year it's worth betting on yourself vs taking 20mil. He's already made over 1million in 6years of time. And another guaranteed 530k roughly in the next 7months. That's already life changing. After the season he had in 2016, he's easily going to have a 2+million 1st arb payday. Scooter Gennett just got 2.5mil and guess who's replacing him as everyday starter?

I just don't see how it's worth it for him. He suffers a career ending injury? At his age, health and knowledge of how rare that will be with medical help.

 

I'm his agent I'm telling him he's leaving behind 15million to guarantee 20mil...well really an extra 10mil in the next 4 years at the worst. So long as he can play terribly.

 

6years 46million with option years at this point. I think that could be enticing to avoid going year to year. Paying 5,6,7,8million the next team controlled years. 9 and 11mil buying out his FA years. Remember this team's payroll-lite currently. You could hand that 10mil signing bonus to reduce his salary hit in future years. You have Castro's and Andrus contract extensions already out there to compare yourself with.

 

It's disappointing offer.

[adambr2]

 

6years 46million with option years at this point. I think that could be enticing to avoid going year to year. Paying 5,6,7,8million the next team controlled years. 9 and 11mil buying out his FA years. Remember this team's payroll-lite currently. You could hand that 10mil signing bonus to reduce his salary hit in future years. You have Castro's and Andrus contract extensions already out there to compare yourself with.

 

It's disappointing offer.

 

Why would we pay him $5M in a season that we can literally pay him any amount we want to? He will make near league minimum this year, just like every other 0 to 3 year player.

 

Take that away and you have 6/41, which makes some sense if you really believe in Villar, but there's really no motivation on the Brewers part to take on that much risk when again they can literally have him for probably 4/30 at the worst just going year to year even if Villar remains productive.

 

Being payroll-lite shouldn't be a factor in what we should or shouldn't pay anybody. Value, not price.

[monty57]

He's already made over 1million in 6years of time. And another guaranteed 530k roughly in the next 7months. That's already life changing.

 

Not really. If he stopped baseball now, he'd have to get a job making whatever he could make outside of baseball, which probably isn't very high paying. As it has been used in this thread, life changing means that you would be set monetarily for the long term and not have to work again. Even if he's a good saver, it's not likely that he's there yet.

 

As to his arby schedule, assuming he starts all year this year, Reilly was probably close in his projection in post #22. Arby rulings are "old school," so they overvalue things like HR, which is why Carter got cut. I think you're overvaluing him if you think he will get $30-35M over the next four years by going year-to-year, but we'll just have to wait and see. I hope 2016 becomes his "norm" and he becomes a perennial All Star. If that happens, the Brewers will benefit both by having him as a player and by having the opportunity to trade him for a king's ransom in a few years.

 

But, lots of players have a "flash in the pan" year and go on to short, mediocre careers, and lots of players get injuries that limit their effectiveness. If either of those things happen, Villar will probably spend 20-30 years of his life in the "normal" working world. That's why some players choose to take the safer route and accept offers like the one Villar just turned down. It's certainly not a "disappointing offer." Rather, it's a sensible offer considering the risk the team would be assuming. They know that not everyone will take it, but offering significantly more would be financially imprudent.

[JohnBriggs12]

You make the offer and hope he accepts and you can cash him in like they did with Gomez and Lucroy who ended up being bargains. If not, he gets what he gets in arbitration and maybe you try again in a couple years. In the meantime, you have a lot better read on your top 2B prospects Diaz and Dubon.

[MrTPlush]

I am betting $20mil is quite the life changing money in the Dominican Republic.

[homer]

$20 million is life changing anywhere.....unless you already have a billion.

[reillymcshane]

If the Brewers do nothing they'll probably get him for 4/$30.6M in a best case scenario for Villar (600K or so this year, and $8M, $10M, and $12M in 3 arby years.)

This is really overvaluing his arby year values - at least up front. Manny Machado got $5M in his first year of arby. Dallas Keuchel got $7.2M after winning the Cy Young award.

 

If he repeats his 2016 performance, you might see $4.0-4.5M price in his first year. Do it again - perhaps $8-9M in his second year of arby.

 

Manny Machado, one of the best players in baseball, is on pace to to probably make around $32-34M in his three arby years ($5M in 2016, $11.5M in 2017, then probably $16-17M next year (assuming nothing bad happens, and he keeps playing great).

 

Villar can still make a lot. If he keeps playing like 2016, he probably gets around $24-25M (roughly three years at $4M, $8M, $12M).

[adambr2]

If the Brewers do nothing they'll probably get him for 4/$30.6M in a best case scenario for Villar (600K or so this year, and $8M, $10M, and $12M in 3 arby years.)

This is really overvaluing his arby year values - at least up front. Manny Machado got $5M in his first year of arby. Dallas Keuchel got $7.2M after winning the Cy Young award.

 

If he repeats his 2016 performance, you might see $4.0-4.5M price in his first year. Do it again - perhaps $8-9M in his second year of arby.

 

Manny Machado, one of the best players in baseball, is on pace to to probably make around $32-34M in his three arby years ($5M in 2016, $11.5M in 2017, then probably $16-17M next year (assuming nothing bad happens, and he keeps playing great).

 

Villar can still make a lot. If he keeps playing like 2016, he probably gets around $24-25M (roughly three years at $4M, $8M, $12M).

 

It was probably an overestimate, but part of the overestimate was deliberate to demonstrate that in the worst/best case scenario for the Brewers (depending on the perspective you look at it from), Villar is under control the next 4 years for a moderate cost, even if he kills it and becomes a perennial all star. So there's no reason the Brewers would do a 4 year deal for any large sum at all.

 

If I had to venture a wild guess as to the offer, it was probably something like 5 years /$21.6M with a 10M team option/1M buyout for a 6th year.

 

That would put his arby values at 3/4.5/6 and a FA year bought out for 7.5M. It's obviously a lot lower than he'll make if he stays productive going year to year, but it's a pretty good tradeoff and balance of security and risk.

[BrewCrewForever]

Wish he would have taken it, but I also like that he is betting on himself to continue to play well and get an even bigger contract.

[adambr2]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/nl-central-notes-villar-lemahieu-cubs-pirates.html?fv-home=true&post-id=86315

 

Supposedly Villar's offer was for a 3 year extension (presumably after this year, buying out his arby years).

 

If that's the case I'm shocked he didn't accept basically 7M a year for his arby years this early. That's a lot of coin to leave on the table without having to sacrifice any of his free agency.

[reillymcshane]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/nl-central-notes-villar-lemahieu-cubs-pirates.html?fv-home=true&post-id=86315

 

Supposedly Villar's offer was for a 3 year extension (presumably after this year, buying out his arby years).

 

If that's the case I'm shocked he didn't accept basically 7M a year for his arby years this early. That's a lot of coin to leave on the table without having to sacrifice any of his free agency.

I would be there was at least a year or two of club options with the $20M guarantee. Otherwise, there's really not a lot of reason for Milwaukee to lock up a guy only through his arby years. Understanding your costs is nice, but there has to be some more reward for the club if they are putting together an extension this early for the guy.

[tmwiese55]

Yea if it was only through the arby years I can't believe he didn't take it.

[Greenleaf1]

To be fair to Villar also, it's not like he made this decision in a vacuum. I'm sure his agent has spreadsheets and data for stuff like this showing what a player of his caliber would make in those 3 arbitration years plus in whatever FA years he would have to give up if he continued to play as well as he did last year, and I'm sure it's well over what he would be paid in this deal.

 

That said, $20M (or even the $10M he's likely to see after taxes and agent fees) is seriously life changing money and I'd have real difficulty turning it down if it were me. So many talented athletes have lost future millions due to injuries that stopped their careers before they ever really started, I'd hate to see that happen to Villar.

[monty57]

To be fair to Villar also, it's not like he made this decision in a vacuum. I'm sure his agent has spreadsheets and data for stuff like this showing what a player of his caliber would make in those 3 arbitration years plus in whatever FA years he would have to give up if he continued to play as well as he did last year, and I'm sure it's well over what he would be paid in this deal.

 

That said, $20M (or even the $10M he's likely to see after taxes and agent fees) is seriously life changing money and I'd have real difficulty turning it down if it were me. So many talented athletes have lost future millions due to injuries that stopped their careers before they ever really started, I'd hate to see that happen to Villar.

 

I think that's important. Villar made a business decision the same way the Brewers made a business decision. As a fan of the Brewers, I wish he'd have taken the deal, but turning down the deal doesn't make him a bad person.

 

Some players will take deals like this, knowing they're giving up some money for security. Some will prefer to go year-to-year bearing more risk for the potential to get more money. Neither is wrong, they're just making an informed decision.

 

The Brewers need to treat this as a business as well. Villar is still a Brewer for several more years, but they need to keep a plan in place so that they will be able to replace him a little earlier than they would if he signed an extension. Hopefully, that plan will allow for him to be adequately replaced a year or two before he becomes a free agent, so we can trade him away for a haul of talent, while replacing him internally with a solid prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

In the long run, his turning this down could be a good thing. It remains to be seen if he can follow up his fine 2016 with another solid year. He needs to cut down on strikeouts, make better decisions on the bases and be solid defensively at 2B. Besides, the Brewers are loaded with middle infielder prospects so why tie up any money now on one guy off one year?

[brewerfan82]

If the offer really was just to buy out his arbitration years, then I'm very glad he turned it down. There is very little upside from the Brewers standpoint to him taking that.

 

Here are some of the higher arbitration numbers for infielders the past couple seasons:

 

Manny Machado - $5m (1st yr), $11.5m (2nd yr)

Neil Walker - $3.3m (1st yr), $5.75m (2nd yr), $8m (3rd yr)

Todd Frazier - $3m (1st yr), $7.5m (2nd yr), $12m (3rd yr)

 

Even if he stays healthy and produces at elite levels (and he's no Manny Machado), he's only likely to get at most a few million more than the $20m we were going to guarantee him, which puts all the risk on us. If he doesn't produce at the same level or he gets hurt, it's a bad deal for the team. It really only makes sense if we're trying to buy out some of his more expensive free agent years as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

Only one game, and cactus league game at that, but he was picked off 1B again and couldn't field a bad throw by Lopez. (Bad throw, but a play that a MLB 2B should make.) So as Briggs said, jury is still out. If he continues the performance of 2016, even with the bone-headed plays, you can live wit it. But much like Gomez, that stuff gets more irritating when you're not hitting.

 

Also, keep in mind some players rely exclusively on their agent to make these decisions. Sure, his agent gave him both sides and explained everything but Villar may have easily said "That's what I have you for Mr. agent, tell me what to do." Would be curious to see what Josh thinks about this.

[clancyphile]

To be fair to Villar also, it's not like he made this decision in a vacuum. I'm sure his agent has spreadsheets and data for stuff like this showing what a player of his caliber would make in those 3 arbitration years plus in whatever FA years he would have to give up if he continued to play as well as he did last year, and I'm sure it's well over what he would be paid in this deal.

 

That said, $20M (or even the $10M he's likely to see after taxes and agent fees) is seriously life changing money and I'd have real difficulty turning it down if it were me. So many talented athletes have lost future millions due to injuries that stopped their careers before they ever really started, I'd hate to see that happen to Villar.

 

And Villar probably is eyeing the depth the Brewers have in the system.

 

I don't think it rules out an extension next year, either. It may be a bit more if he hits like 2016, but that may also be in the cards.

 

We know we have a pair of superb players in Villar and Perez. We don't know exactly how Arcia or the prospects will shake out.

[reillymcshane]

Another thing I want to point out about a Villar extension is the timing he would actually become a free agent.

 

First, I am guessing (perhaps incorrectly) that in addition to the $20M he would earn from 2018-2020, the club proposed that there be one or two years of team options. That's generally the trade off for an extension - the player gets guaranteed money, and the team gets an extra year or two of control.

 

Villar is set to be a free agent in 2021 - his age 30 season. If there are two years of options on a deal he signs now, he delays free agency until his age 32 season.

 

Odds are that Villar's production is going to better at age 29 than age 31. And any contract he signs before his age 30 season is likely to be bigger and better - in years and in numbers - than one that he signs before his age 32 season.

 

Obviously, there are no guarantees - especially when injuries get factored in.

[tmwiese55]

Yea that's a very good theory, being that he got started in MLB at a bit older age it pushes him back. Sticking point could easily be that we want those post arby years as options and he wants them guaranteed to accept moving his real FA back to age 32.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the offer really was just to buy out his arbitration years, then I'm very glad he turned it down. There is very little upside from the Brewers standpoint to him taking that.

 

Here are some of the higher arbitration numbers for infielders the past couple seasons:

 

Manny Machado - $5m (1st yr), $11.5m (2nd yr)

Neil Walker - $3.3m (1st yr), $5.75m (2nd yr), $8m (3rd yr)

Todd Frazier - $3m (1st yr), $7.5m (2nd yr), $12m (3rd yr)

 

Even if he stays healthy and produces at elite levels (and he's no Manny Machado), he's only likely to get at most a few million more than the $20m we were going to guarantee him, which puts all the risk on us. If he doesn't produce at the same level or he gets hurt, it's a bad deal for the team. It really only makes sense if we're trying to buy out some of his more expensive free agent years as well.

 

Machado did miss half a season so some of that affects his value.

Walker would have been a Super 2 so his 2nd, 3rd and 4th year 5.75/8/10.55mil would be the 3years Villar said no to. And I think Walker is below Villar in value.

Todd Frazier is a slugger below BA, OB avg. for 3b at that. Villar you're talking getting comped in a 2b/util when he goes through Arb will have a higher value than Frazier's 3b batting line.

 

And Remember, Gennett just achieved 2.525mil his first Arb. So Villar once again exceeds that value. If Frazier and Walker are averaging 10mil for their final year, Villar has to see himself at minimum there and likely above. Another great batting season and you can assert him in the Machado money comparisons. Because he's doing it now at 2b. Removes some of the defensive errors that he incurred with 3b and SS will be less of a hit on his value thus increasing it. He's also very good batting from both sides.

 

You get an offer just through Arb and it shows your scared what he could be valued at. Villar's side must know this is worth the gamble. He goes 3+WAR at 2b he's locked in above 20mil these next 3 Arb.s

[crickets]

Extremely early, but Villar looks very lost at 2nd base. I wouldn't think a transition from SS to 2nd would be that difficult especially when he was playing there last year and all spring training. Hopefully he isn't putting too much pressure on himself knowing he turned down several million dollars guaranteed...