Villar passed up extension

[billymac]

Per Rotowire for 20m...

[adambr2]

Hard to know what to think of this without knowing how long the deal was for.

 

My guess is 5 years, 20M, which would buy out his arbitration plus a FA year. A good idea. I can understand why Villar passed on it, but he's betting high on himself.

[dacbrewers]

Of course the Brewers are going to try and get him for a low ball offer. I'm glad to see that he thinks that he is worth more.

[rwa12]

I'm good with this. I hope Villar can play himself into a nice trade chip down the road (and a large contract with someone else), and that some of the multitude of middle infield depth is ready to backfill him.

[502 to Right]

I totally get why players might take a deal like this. $20 million is life changing money. Guaranteed.

 

You never know when a career ending injury could occur. Or regress to a point where you only get 1 year minimum deals offered.

[brewmann04]

Hope he has another monster season good for him better for the Brewers.

[pacopete4]

That has to be a hard call to make by passing up $20mil guaranteed. I can't imagine the pressure you feel if you get out of the gate slow come April.

[paul253]

I totally get why players might take a deal like this. $20 million is life changing money. Guaranteed

 

With all the ridiculous contracts being thrown out there people sometimes forget about much $20 million actually is. That's more than most people will make in 4 lifetimes, working for decades each lifetime. I sure hope he doesn't bomb or have a career ending injury.

[MadScientist]

There are definitely risks on both sides with this offer, but it is nice to see Villar with the confidence to bet on himself.

[pogokat]

At the end of the season, I was all about Villar as a building block moving forward, but the more I've looked into what he actually did last season, I kind've think the Brewers should trade him after this year. If he has a season within 20% of last season (hopefully 20% better!), his value will still be very high and the Brewers will get extreme talent for him. He looks to me like the kind of player who is going to have lots of warts throughout his career---sort've like BJ Upton (Melvin right now). The kind of guy that can hit .300, 30hrs, steal 60, but never in the same season. I really feel like he's going to be a bit of an enigma.

 

Either way, if he hits .280 with 15 hr's and 50 sbs this season, he's going to cost a fortune in arbitration, so it might be wise to trade him before that starts and his value is at its highest point. I sold in my Dynasty League.

[billymac]

Casey McGehee wished he would have..

[JackNicholson1974]

Jean Segura wished he would have...

[MrTPlush]

Jonathan Villar had an amazing year from start to finish and the scouts think he is legit after watching him all year. Thats probably why he passed it up. It is a common sense move to try and lock up a player like Villar cheap. These offers happen way more than they are reportsed. I wish him luck on this dangerous endeavor of passing up on so much money. I think he will have another great year and still be worth that or more come next offseason. Never known though.

 

He is different from guys like Segura/McGehee though. Segura was like a 2 month wonder and probably a bad extension idea even at the time. McGehee came out of no where and was never really highly regarded. Jonathan Villar was a pretty good prospect and had some success in sporadic MLB at-bats before we got him.

[adambr2]

Jean Segura wished he would have...

 

Why? He's coming off a 5 WAR season and is 2 years from FA. Even if he regresses some he's still likely to break the bank when he becomes a free agent.

[Montezuma]

Casey McGehee wished he would have.. Well said BillyMac

[reillymcshane]

We can come up with a hundred names of people who wish they had taken extensions - and those that wish they hadn't.

 

To me, it's about the person. Some people thrive on the year-to-year challenge. Others hate the pressure - and just want to have their life figured out for a while.

[adambr2]

When McGehee had his big year, he struck me as someone who would likely take a long-term deal. I know he has a special needs child and so for someone like him I would have thought the long-term security would be more important than breaking the bank. And I'm not saying it wasn't or that he should have settled for much less because of it -- I have no idea what the extent of his negotiations were with the team and I don't think any of us do.

 

The good news is he still made 10.5M in his pro career, not including whatever he got in Asia. So I would think he's doing just fine.

 

For me, I'd like to think if I get a chance early on at 20M, I'm taking it. Whether I make 20M or 200M in my career, it's going to be life changing. I don't think I'd like to run the risk of flaming out in my 0-3 years and never even seeing a MLB offer again in my career. But I can understand why some don't see it that way. And I would think that they may be under some pressure from the MLBPA to ensure they don't sell themselves short.

[Greenleaf1]

I personally think this is a mistake for any player who isn't a slam dunk absolute all star to turn down an early extension offer like this. Pro sports is a fickle profession, and you could be out on your ass tomorrow, and I think the security of knowing you aren't playing for your life anymore would really help take a lot of weight off a player's shoulders. Then again, to be successful in the MLB you have to have shockingly high amounts of confidence anyways, so I'm not really in a position to say what's going on in Villar's head.

 

Obviously I would've preferred that he take this deal, but Villar probably would've been viewed as leaving a ton of money on the table if he took a deal that pays him less per year than Eric Thames.

[Outlander]

Hard to say if it is a smart move or not without knowing the length of the deal but I imagine Adambr2 is accurate in that they tried to buy out a year of free agency. If that is the case I think it is more risk than reward for Villar. Sure he would delay free agency by a year but if he is still a solid player he would still get a real nice contract at 30 vs the 29 he will be when he is set to become a free agent. Of course Villar may still be willing to sign and is just holding out for a few million more.

[tmwiese55]

Did we ever hear how many years? Tough to really comment without knowing. But if it's a 5/20 or 4/20 he should definitely say no as that is a serious lowball and try to negotiate more. Probably shouldn't walk away from the table but he should counter to 4/34-38, something like that.

[MrTPlush]

Did we ever hear how many years? Tough to really comment without knowing. But if it's a 5/20 or 4/20 he should definitely say no as that is a serious lowball and try to negotiate more. Probably shouldn't walk away from the table but he should counter to 4/34-38, something like that.

 

That would make zero sense for the Brewers. Why would they garauntee his arby salaries and get no FA years out of it? If it is 4 years it would have the be way less than $34mil. Any deal would have to be 5+ years or include attractive cheap option(s). 4/$20mil wouldn't really be a bad deal for Villar if it just went through his arby years.

[reillymcshane]

$20M sounds like it would take him through arby years. Something like:

 

$1M signing bonus (gets a little extra cash up front)

2017: $1M

2018: $3M

2019: $6M

2020: $9M

2021 and beyond: team option(s)

 

Again, just a guess on what something like a $20M deal would look like.

 

Those were the guarantees - then there was a team option a year or two, which was not part of the reported $20M.

[tmwiese55]

Did we ever hear how many years? Tough to really comment without knowing. But if it's a 5/20 or 4/20 he should definitely say no as that is a serious lowball and try to negotiate more. Probably shouldn't walk away from the table but he should counter to 4/34-38, something like that.

 

That would make zero sense for the Brewers. Why would they garauntee his arby salaries and get no FA years out of it? If it is 4 years it would have the be way less than $34mil. Any deal would have to be 5+ years or include attractive cheap option(s). 4/$20mil wouldn't really be a bad deal for Villar if it just went through his arby years.

 

Yea not exactly sure where he's at in the process, so not arguing specifics and I'm sure you know more than me on that. Was just saying he'd be greatly underselling himself and 20mil while a lot of money still isn't enough to never have to worry about it for his whole life after you factor in taxes and agent fees. Unless of course he's willing to live a very normal life, which of course is rare for these guys. I'm just saying he should try and get more total dollars somehow, however it works out with the years. If he can somehow get it to where 35+ mil is locked in that is a huge difference from 20. Basically I just think he should negotiate himself up a bit and hope the Brewer's give it, it's basic negotiation. And still we don't know the years so it's tough to comment with certainty. Just that most of these early sign moves are usually locking in more than 20 mil for the guy.

[monty57]

These type deals are not "lowball offers," which insinuates that the team is trying to screw over the player. In pre-arby years, the player has a lot of risk because nothing is guaranteed beyond the current year, and they aren't making that much money. Any injury or bad play can seriously hamper the possibility of future income. By offering a guaranteed deal, the team is taking on all of this risk, so therefore should be "compensated" for taking on this risk by paying less than the player would receive if they continued to play at an above average, healthy level. Think of it in the same way as buying insurance.

 

I'm glad that the Brewers are making these offers to deserving players, and have no ill will against a player if they would rather not "buy the insurance." This is a business, so now we just have to hope that someone like Dubon or Diaz is ready in 2-3 years so we can bring them up and trade Villar off for a boatload of prospects, continuing to keep the entire system filled with talent.

 

In the grand scheme of things, the hope for these type of deals is to add value to a commodity. With more years of hopefully under-market-value team control, the player is more valuable to you whether you are playing him or trading him. We always need to be looking to add value to the franchise any way we can. Like any risk scenario, there is a chance it doesn't work, so you just need to weigh the potential risk versus the potential added value.

[tmwiese55]

Well said Monty. Maybe we'll know more details soon and for all we know they're still negotiating. I bet there's a number there that works for everyone and I'm confident he'll at least be a solid contributor even with some regression from last year.