Chris Archer in 2018 or 2019

[3and2Fastball]

I tend to look for "who is the next Wade Davis?" and I think Chris Archer just might be the guy. Now, Archer obviously has had more success as a starter than Davis ever did, but he got pounded last year, giving up 30 HR's and had a ERA+ of just 101. Hitters are increasingly killing his fastball, which has lost a couple of ticks. He may bounce back, but I'm predicting that he is done as a frontline starter.

 

His slider & changeup, however, are completely nasty and downright unhittable when he's on. As a closer he could be dominant. If the Rays give up on him after '17 or '18, he could be exactly the type of player the Brewers could trade for without giving up the farm for him. With a club option he'd be under team control through 2021

[MrTPlush]

Sounds like a thread to start when he actually starts sucking as a starter. He was still a mid rotation guy last year and is only 28(cheap too). The Rays aren't going to move him anywhere unless he falls off the cliff.

[adambr2]

The Rays turned down an offer from the Astros this offseason of the #20, #35, and #54 prospects in all of baseball plus two additional prospects for Archer.

 

No way do they turn that down only to settle for a low ball deal from us next year.

[mlloyd10]

His FB is faster than it was two years ago and his xFIP is lower than it was two years ago. He is still really good.

[JosephC]

I hope the Rays keep all of their starters (although I think there is a good chance they deal Odorizzi). That staff could be really, really interesting.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm not sure how you get to Archer "being the next Wade Davis". Davis had 2 mediocre years as a starter before being moved to the bullpen. Archer had one down year (still better than Davis's bad years) after 3 terrific years in a row.

[reillymcshane]

Archer is already a pretty amazing pitcher - and everyone knows it. The ERA was inflated last year and he had all those loses, but most everyone can point to his peripherals and see a guy who is really good.

 

As noted, teams have made some big offers for the guy already - and he hasn't been moved.

 

I think it was Fangraphs that did an article basically showing he was just as valuable as Sale. Again - that's saying he has more value than Sale - essentially because he's controlled for five years instead of four (which is what Sale's contract is for).

 

If the Rays do poorly this year, look for Archer to be a huge trade chip this summer - or next off season - assuming the Rays go into a semi-rebuild mode.