Yankees sign Chris Carter 1 year 3 Million

[rwa12]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18639431/new-york-yankees-agree-1-year-deal-chris-carter

 

Not a bad sign at that price for the Yankees.

[monty57]

Good for him, but this shows how out of whack the arbitration process is in valuing players if two teams in a row gave up his rights rather than pay what he would have been awarded, only to have him sign a deal for far less money in free agency.

[sveumrules]

Glad Chris didn't end up in Japan, though it would have been interesting to see if he could have made a run for Wladimir Balentien's single season HR record.

 

Out of the rumored destinations to this point NY is pretty sneaky good for Chris. Bird is relatively unproven at 1B & Holliday's had two injury shortened seasons in a row, though moving to DH should theoretically help that.

 

Even if Bird & Holliday are healthy all year I could easily see Carter getting a good 60 starts or so between platooning with Bird at 1B and giving Holliday occasional days off at DH.

[Ennder]

Good for him. That park may rob a few of his HRs though since he hits so few to the right field porch.

[adambr2]

Good for him, but this shows how out of whack the arbitration process is in valuing players if two teams in a row gave up his rights rather than pay what he would have been awarded, only to have him sign a deal for far less money in free agency.

 

It's mind-boggling to me. It's 2017 and almost the entire baseball world has figured out better and more accurate ways to judge a player's performance and predict their future performance than just raw traditional statistics.

 

Yet for whatever reason, MLB arbitration panels are still stuck in the 1980's, awarding salaries based on batting average, HRs, and RBIs.

 

Until they fix this you'll rightfully see more guys non-tendered than there otherwise would be. Considering Carter's market value was $3M over one year, and we would have been forced to pay him 8 to 10 million, Stearns clearly made the right call even though it was questioned at the time.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm sure Chris would have gotten more than that had he stayed in Milwaukee but numbers weren't exchanged so the $8M figure we are all assuming is a guess based off of MLB Trade Rumors predictions. They are generally very close but all numbers are still just speculation from outside sources. I believe he was non-tendered before Thames was signed so maybe he would have stuck around for $4 or $5 million.

[monty57]

I'm sure Chris would have gotten more than that had he stayed in Milwaukee but numbers weren't exchanged so the $8M figure we are all assuming is a guess based off of MLB Trade Rumors predictions. They are generally very close but all numbers are still just speculation from outside sources. I believe he was non-tendered before Thames was signed so maybe he would have stuck around for $4 or $5 million.

 

The rumor (I believe from a McCalvy article) was that the Brewers thought they could have to pay around $11M if it went to arby. I agree that if Thames went elsewhere, the Brewers probably would have approached Carter with an offer like you suggested.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It's funny....... over at Deadspin their "sportswriter" is like "THIS GUY JUST HIT 40 HUGE DINGERS!!!!!, and wrote an article about how homerun hitters are getting the shaft this off-season when it comes to huge contracts (Mark Trumbo, Batista, Carter)

 

Some of the commenters are trying to point out that overall value (Carter was a .9 WAR player) has far more to do with what players are (and should) be paid than just "huge dingers", but sadly, yeah, a lot of people still think it's 1985 and Homeruns r awesome!!!!

[CheezWizHed]

Well, I think its more than homeruns. He did OPS 820 last year with a respectable OBP. However:

1) He has done that twice in his career with horrible years before and after.

2) Defense seems to be his WAR downfall. Frankly I'm still a bit surprised by this. I did watch a ton of games last year (30-40), listened to 20-30 more. I can only really think of one bad mistake. The eyeball test didn't seem to think he was bad (not great either, but average). But the metrics sure hate him. Maybe my 1B defensive expectations are too low?

 

3TO has died.

[brewerfan82]

Does anyone know what his WAR would have been last year had he been a full time DH?

[JohnBriggs12]

Call me old fashioned but I'll take a guy who every 13.5 AB's puts a point on the board. He was a one man rally. It's why I like Khris Davis. Those guys have HR rates that compare with the All Time greats. Isn't the object to score more runs than the opponent?

 

The Brewers rightfully needed their lineup to get more left-handed. Unfortunately with no DH in the NL, so no room for Carter. I think that had more to do with it than his price tag. It's unfortunate they didn't get any return for the kind of production Carter had in his one season as a Brewer. Yankees got a huge bargain at that price.

 

A lot of Carter's value downgrade was his defensive limitations, but shifting the 2B to short RF against LH pull hitters minimizes that a lot. He doesn't have stone hands, but he does lack range.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, I think its more than homeruns. He did OPS 820 last year with a respectable OBP. However:

1) He has done that twice in his career with horrible years before and after.

2) Defense seems to be his WAR downfall. Frankly I'm still a bit surprised by this. I did watch a ton of games last year (30-40), listened to 20-30 more. I can only really think of one bad mistake. The eyeball test didn't seem to think he was bad (not great either, but average). But the metrics sure hate him. Maybe my 1B defensive expectations are too low?

 

3TO has died.

 

 

I think calling his OBP respectable at .321 (right at league average) is fair, but that's counting pitchers batting into the league average as well.

 

His defense is pretty brutal. He has the mobility of a statue, and no reach at all. He made 11 errors, and he doesn't get to anything. I know defense at first base is deemed to be not important, but I think that the market is figuring out that defense everywhere is actually important.

[sveumrules]

Does anyone know what his WAR would have been last year had he been a full time DH?

 

Fangraphs "credited" Carter -5.2 runs for his defensive performance and gave him a -11.5 positional adjustment for a total defensive contribution of -16.9 runs. He had 631 PAs as a first baseman.

 

Compare that to David Ortiz who received a -15.1 positional adjustment for his 612 PAs as a DH and it looks like as a full time DH Carter would pick up an extra two runs or so in value or about 0.2 WAR, so a pretty marginal difference.

[brewmann04]

was asked a ton of questions about him from my Yankee friends the last two days

[3and2Fastball]

Call me old fashioned but I'll take a guy who every 13.5 AB's puts a point on the board. He was a one man rally. It's why I like Khris Davis. Those guys have HR rates that compare with the All Time greats. Isn't the object to score more runs than the opponent?

 

A lot of Carter's value downgrade was his defensive limitations, but shifting the 2B to short RF against LH pull hitters minimizes that a lot. He doesn't have stone hands, but he does lack range.

 

I think you are 100% correct. I believe the game has shifted a little too far in the Sabermetric/WAR direction, and will adjust back with the realization that one or two 3TO players in a lineup have value.

 

I think it depends on the team, the rest of the roster and the type of park you are pitching in in terms of how much you can leverage a great HR hitter, but as you correctly state: Carter is in scoring position every time he steps in the batter's box. There is real value in that! . I'd prefer to see the Brewers in an extreme pitcher's park in order to have a better chance of reducing opponent's runs, but it is too late for that. In an extreme pitcher's park, a great HR hitter has even more value, ala Willie Mays & Willie McCovey in Candlestick Park in the 60's....

[MrTPlush]

Carter is in scoring position every time he steps in the batter's box. There is real value in that!

 

That is true and all, but there is also dumpster fire value in a guy who strikes out 200+ times, has months where he hits <.200, and only gets 120 hits a year despite having a lot of ABs.

 

Sure he goes through little bursts where he hits a streak of dingers, but when he isn't he is the worst thing to have on a team.

[3and2Fastball]

Carter is in scoring position every time he steps in the batter's box. There is real value in that!

 

That is true and all, but there is also dumpster fire value in a guy who strikes out 200+ times, has months where he hits <.200, and only gets 120 hits a year despite having a lot of ABs.

 

Sure he goes through little bursts where he hits a streak of dingers, but when he isn't he is the worst thing to have on a team.

 

 

I'm not sure about that. What you are saying makes sense, and you may be right, but I'm not 100% sure. It depends on how he's being pitched. Are they pitching around him? Are the hitters in front of him seeing better pitches? Lots of things to factor in.

 

Carter is a little more extreme, I recognize that. But Khris Davis, for instance, had 42 bombs and was worth 2.8 WAR, despite the .307 OBP and 166 K's, my gut instincts tell me he's undervalued. Considering that Billy Beane traded for him, it would seem that Beane thinks he was undervalued too

[Ennder]

A win is worth something like 7.5 million dollars. He is roughly a 1 WAR player. His contract is really low compared to what he has done in recent years. He shouldn't get a huge contract but it should likely have been bigger than this.