You can change one Brewers draft pick...

[LouisEly]

Yes - 5 slots for 1st round picks, 10 slots for 2nd round or later. I don't want to get into a game of "Player X was 21 picks later/3 rounds later/etc." because I want to stick to guys who realistically could have been in the conversation for that pick. If a guy went 15 picks or whatever later, then he likely wasn't in the conversation otherwise 14 other teams wouldn't have passed on him as well.

 

Speaking of Arnett, another reason for doing this exercise is what you see after the Arnett pick. Of the 23 picks after Arnett in the 1st round, only two have a career bWAR >3 - Garrett Richards and Rex Brothers (Paxton doesn't count because he didn't sign that year.) Chris Owings and Brad Boxberger are the only two who have >2 career bWAR. 12 of the 23 picks have a career bWAR of 0.2 or less. We like to say how much of a wasted pick that was, how much Seid screwed up, etc., but the reality is that most teams did just as poorly with their pick as the Brewers did.

 

Just as bad are the 19 picks after the Brewers slot in 2010, excluding Yelich. Heck, of the 36 picks after Covey only four have a career bWAR >1 - they are a big four (Yelich, Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Taijuan Walker), but that means that 32 other picks were botched as well.

 

I'd probably still rather have Bellinger + Gatewood, right now. This is probably unfair over such a small sample but it scares me a bit how bad Reed has been at the MLB level.

 

Anthony Rizzo didn't look so hot his first 150 PAs either...

[brewcrewdue80]

Oh, I only thought is was 5picks any round, maybe I just forgot already Triston Mckenzie was my 2nd thought in choice. Dont remember the round or year.

[clancyphile]

I think my choice would be Garrett Richards over Eric Arnett as a first-round pick.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Drop Corey Ray

Add Matt Manning

[3and2Fastball]

Trea Turner instead of Medeiros would have been nice

[OnTheBlack]

Yeah, I didn't think I'd have to state that re: Fernandez, but it's been well documented that he and his agent said they weren't signing with anyone except the Marlins (per Adam McCalvy) otherwise he would have went before Jungmann.

 

What I'm getting at - and why I limited it to 2009 and later - is what you think would have the most value for the Brewers right now.

 

 

I don't blame the Brewers for either of the pitchers they picked in that draft...they were projected to go where they went. It wasn't like either was a reach. In fact both were top 10 prospects. But I'd go with Fernandez as well.

 

As for him not playing for anyone other than the Marlins, it's one thing to say he won't play for any other franchise...it's another to turn down millions of dollars. Even being a Cuban who grew up in South Miami. I believe Josh Bell was even more adamant in his decision to go to college(not just refuse to play for anyone but one team, he refused to sign with ANYONE), yet look how that turned out.

[LouisEly]

Josh Bell also signed for $5M, tied for 5th highest signing bonus in that draft, so for all intents and purposes he was the #5 overall pick.

 

The four who signed for more - Gerrit Cole ($8M), Bubba Starling ($7.5M), Danny Hultzen ($6.5M), and Anthony Rendon ($6M). Buying Starling out of his college commitment... look how that turned out.

[patrickgpe]

well the rules makes it a little harder, but i would have drafted Brinson instead of Roache.

 

honorary mention: Gray over Bradley.

[StearnsFTW]

Paxton for sure for me. His stuff is simply filthy. Obviously injury prone, but he is incredible when right.

[Eye Black]

One more player that appears destined to be added to this list is Braves 3B prospect Austin Riley. As noted prior to the 2015 MLB draft, Riley attended a pre-draft workout with Brewers, but ultimately the Brewers selected Nathan Kirby #40 overall, one pick before the Braves took Riley at #41.

[PeaveyFury]

Eric Arnett is a name I had completely forgotten. Remembering it made me sad.

[LouisEly]

Eric Arnett is a name I had completely forgotten. Remembering it made me sad.

If it makes you feel any better, Nick Franklin (1.3 bWAR) was the very next pick. Followed by Ray Fuentes (-0.4), Slade Heathcott (0.4), LeVeon Washington (never made it to AA), Brett Jackson (0.0), Tim Wheeler (AAA), and Steven Baron (-0.3).

 

Lots of teams want to forget their first round pick that year. If you drafted after the Brewers, the best you could have gotten was Garrett Richards (7.1), a career LOOGY (Rex Brothers, 4.6), or Chris Owings (3.2). (Paxton didn't sign.) If you picked before the Brewers, you are kicking yourself for passing on Trout.

[adambr2]

The guy taken before Arnett was Mike Trout.

 

Doug Melvin hinted that the pick would have been Trout if he had been available. If true, the Yankees signing Mark Texieria cost us Mike Trout. Just in case you needed another reason to hate the Yankees.

[OnaBadger58]

The guy taken before Arnett was Mike Trout.

 

Doug Melvin hinted that the pick would have been Trout if he had been available. If true, the Yankees signing Mark Texieria cost us Mike Trout. Just in case you needed another reason to hate the Yankees.

Teixeira was he only free agent that was rated ahead of CC for this to happen too (not sure how they decide who should be rated higher). Still depressing to think about...

[brewmann04]

Yes never understood how that worked and yes i hate the yanks for that too.

[brooks_quichenick]

2011 4th Rd

 

Nick Ramirez (131st overall)

 

for

 

Mike Clevinger (135th overall)

[Harry Doyles JD]

I tend to wonder how many of today's stars or top prospects would still be so if we had picked them.

 

Certainly we haven't drafted well enough, I'm just curious as to whether there is a major coaching flaw in the farm system that has helped contribute to the problem. It isn't normal to take this many pitchers as we have over the years, especially picking high most years, and literally have two that turn out to be more than #4s in 25 years.

Great post, Adam. I have been wondering the same for years and hoping someone would overhaul the minor league instruction.

[LouisEly]

I tend to wonder how many of today's stars or top prospects would still be so if we had picked them.

 

Certainly we haven't drafted well enough, I'm just curious as to whether there is a major coaching flaw in the farm system that has helped contribute to the problem. It isn't normal to take this many pitchers as we have over the years, especially picking high most years, and literally have two that turn out to be more than #4s in 25 years.

Great post, Adam. I have been wondering the same for years and hoping someone would overhaul the minor league instruction.

I can tell you what their philosophy was in the late 90's/early 2000s - they put the high schoolers as the starters in the minors because "they needed to throw more innings" and the college pitchers as the relievers. They didn't subscribe to the innings jump limit until 2004/2005, but neither did most teams.

 

The acronym TINSTAPP really applied prior to 2005 because they (and most teams) didn't understand the fragility of HS arms. Also, until protection for unsigned picks (2010) and the draft bonus pool (2012) they were not on a level paying field. They had to go for signability and hope they developed. Post draft bonus pool implementation, they've been as good as anyone but have picked very few pitchers early.

 

2012 - no pitcher until 3rd round, but Tyler Wagner, Damien Magnifico, Anthony Banda, and this Brent Suter guy

2013 - no first round pick, but Taylor Williams in the 4th and Ryan Yarbrough (who didn't sign, but is pitching well for the Rays) and Devin Williams was developing nicely until he got hurt

2014 - jury still out on Medeiros, but nabbed Brandon Woodruff and Jordan Yamamoto in the 11th and 12th rounds; Sneed was good enough to be flipped for Villar (and Sneed is having a good year in AAA this year)

 

Anything else is too recent, but 2015 has Ponce and Kirby, and 2016 is the infamous Braden Webb, Corbin Burnes, Zack Brown run with Thomas Jankins in the 13th.

[clancyphile]

I'd re-do that 2012 first round:

27. OF Lewis Brinson vice C Clint Coulter

28. LHP Brian Johnson vice OF Victor Roache

38. 3B/1B Joey Gallo vice OF Mitch Haniger

[HiAndTight]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

 

Dont care on the rules. This is my answer as well. Great pick find Plush.

 

This is baseball and a rarity for a draft pick to make the team the same year. Barely 50/50 to make the Majors to begin with. Picking top-line talent and letting the kid find out what life is. You dont get your way when playing sports til you are a FA. Go ahead, dont sign, spend a year or more hoping to retain your talent without serious injury. And certainly delay youtself from the big FA payday.

 

Ace on staff, or future MVP bat at 3rd base. Yep easy choice

 

I know I'm REAL late to this party, but there are several guys who've stated one thing and done another.

 

For instance, Josh Bell wasn't siging under ANY circumstance and was going to school at UT. Then when the money was real(and well above slot IIRC) he signed.

[MrTPlush]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

 

Dont care on the rules. This is my answer as well. Great pick find Plush.

 

This is baseball and a rarity for a draft pick to make the team the same year. Barely 50/50 to make the Majors to begin with. Picking top-line talent and letting the kid find out what life is. You dont get your way when playing sports til you are a FA. Go ahead, dont sign, spend a year or more hoping to retain your talent without serious injury. And certainly delay youtself from the big FA payday.

 

Ace on staff, or future MVP bat at 3rd base. Yep easy choice

 

I know I'm REAL late to this party, but there are several guys who've stated one thing and done another.

 

For instance, Josh Bell wasn't siging under ANY circumstance and was going to school at UT. Then when the money was real(and well above slot IIRC) he signed.

 

That doesn't really change the draft plan here.

[HiAndTight]

That doesn't really change the draft plan here.

 

 

I'm not sure what you're saying. I'm pointing out that sometimes MLB prospects say one thing, then do another. I'm comparing Bell's situation to Fernandez's. One said he was only going to sign in Miami, one said he wasn't going to sign and was instead going to go to college no matter what. Things change when the money gets real.

[Eye Black]

In Ken Rosenthal’s article for The Athletic yesterday he had a nice anecdote about the Brewers 2005 draft coming down to deciding between Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Braun. He basically said the Brewers we looking to draft for need and find their future third baseman. He interviewed Jack Zduriencik who had contacted Tulowitzki’s agent, Paul Cohen, prior to the draft to see if Tulo was willing to move to 3B. This was the response he got...

 

“Would Tulowitzki be interested if he had to move to third base?” Zduriencik asked.

 

“Nah,” Cohen replied, “he’s not going to want to do that.”

 

Later on in the piece Jack Z is attributed with this quote:

 

“If Braun would have been gone, I think we would have taken Tulowitzki anyhow and just said the hell with it,” Zduriencik said. “We would have just lived with it and figured, ‘Ok, maybe somebody gets traded.’”