You can change one Brewers draft pick...

[LouisEly]

Just having a little fun with this. You can go back in time and change one Brewers draft pick, but here are the rules:

 

1) Pick must have been 2009 or later

2) For a first round pick, the player you pick instead must be one of the next five picks. For any other round it can be one of the next ten picks.

3) If you know a guy was a big oversign (applies to 2009-2011 drafts mostly) please exclude that player

 

The first one that comes to mind is A.J. Reed, the pick immediately after Jake Gatewood in 2014. A big, young LH 1B stick would be nice to have right now... but I think the Brewers will have a bargain in Thames.

 

Any of the five picks after Medeiros wouldn't be a bad call, but I haven't given up on Kodi yet.

 

The Brewers could have already had Lewis Brinson, instead of drafting Coulter or Roache. But then what would they have gotten for Lucroy?

 

Speaking of those picks... five picks after Coulter and four picks after Roache was Jose Berrios. His minor league numbers in 2014 and 2015 look eerily similar to Brandon Woodruff's from this past season.

 

In the 24th round of the 2013 draft, two picks after Chris Razo, was Jose De Leon. But who can look that far into a draft?

 

I'm going to go with the 2009 draft, and nine picks after Max Walla and eight picks after Cam Garfield was Kyle Seager. He will be 29 next year - maybe he would still be around/good when the Brewers compete again, but if not I think they could trade him for a haul as his contract is only through age 34 at most, 33 w/o the option, and a LHH All-Star 3B is a heck of an asset.

[adambr2]

This might be a bit of a touchy one, but I would pass on Taylor Jungmann and draft Jose Fernandez. I'm obviously assuming that if we had, that the circumstances from last year would not have occurred. Fernandez was emerging as one of the top aces in baseball, something which would be a huge asset right now.

[MrTPlush]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

[jerichoholicninja]

This might be a bit of a touchy one, but I would pass on Taylor Jungmann and draft Jose Fernandez. I'm obviously assuming that if we had, that the circumstances from last year would not have occurred. Fernandez was emerging as one of the top aces in baseball, something which would be a huge asset right now.

 

We wouldn't even know if they would happen because he said he wasn't signing with any team but the Marlins.

[LouisEly]

Yeah, I didn't think I'd have to state that re: Fernandez, but it's been well documented that he and his agent said they weren't signing with anyone except the Marlins (per Adam McCalvy) otherwise he would have went before Jungmann.

 

What I'm getting at - and why I limited it to 2009 and later - is what you think would have the most value for the Brewers right now.

[adambr2]

Interesting, I never knew he was all or nothing on the Marlins. I wonder if he would have been amenable with a big enough over slot bonus, or if he was dead set.

 

Tyler Glasnow was taken in the 5th round in 2011, but we didn't have a pick 10 picks prior so that doesn't fit with the above rules.

 

Of the ones that did, there are some good options. Turner over Medeiros. Maybe Gallo over Haniger? And Brinson over dither of Roache or Coulter assuming we still got a comparable return for Lucroy. Or DeLeon.

 

But my pick would probably be Cody Bellinger over Taylor Williams in the 4th round of the 2013 draft. I wish it wasn't Taylor Williams because I really like the guy, but adding Bellinger is a no-brainer.

[brewcrewdue80]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

 

Dont care on the rules. This is my answer as well. Great pick find Plush.

 

This is baseball and a rarity for a draft pick to make the team the same year. Barely 50/50 to make the Majors to begin with. Picking top-line talent and letting the kid find out what life is. You dont get your way when playing sports til you are a FA. Go ahead, dont sign, spend a year or more hoping to retain your talent without serious injury. And certainly delay youtself from the big FA payday.

 

Ace on staff, or future MVP bat at 3rd base. Yep easy choice

[A Swing and A Drive]

2011 MLB Draft: I'll go with Pick #18 RHP Sonny Gray over Pick #15 Jed Bradley.

 

 

Honorable Mention...

 

2012 MLB Draft: I desperately wanted the Brewers to pick 1B Joey Gallo. They have 3 high picks (27,28,38)

 

They pick...

27. C Clint Coulter

28. OF Victor Roache

38. OF Mitch Haniger

 

Gallo goes pick 39. F my life!

[MrTPlush]

Honorable Mention...

 

2012 MLB Draft: I desperately wanted the Brewers to pick 1B Joey Gallo.

 

You and me both. I don't always think I am an expert, but I wanted Gallo bad and REALLY BAD with that #38 pick.

[trwi7]

I'll trade Medeiros for Trea Turner who was taken one pick later.

[MrTPlush]

I'll trade Medeiros for Trea Turner who was taken one pick later.

 

Ahhh another solid option. Another player I liked at the time.

[LouisEly]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

Interesting idea, but very risky taking a HS player with an unprotected pick (comp picks for unsigned players are not protected). The Dodgers had to go $400K over slot to sign Seager and that was with a protected pick; any halfway decent agent is going to leverage that unprotected pick and hold the team hostage. If Seager walks away from the table, the Brewers get nothing from either pick. Unlikely but very possible.

 

Not sure that Glasnow would be eligible because he was a significant oversign - he signed for almost 4x the slot value.

[MrTPlush]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

Interesting idea, but very risky taking a HS player with an unprotected pick (comp picks for unsigned players are not protected). The Dodgers had to go $400K over slot to sign Seager and that was with a protected pick; any halfway decent agent is going to leverage that unprotected pick and hold the team hostage. If Seager walks away from the table, the Brewers get nothing from either pick. Unlikely but very possible.

 

Not sure that Glasnow would be eligible because he was a significant oversign - he signed for almost 4x the slot value.

 

I mean we are playing this game in retrospect so I will give Seager the entire bonus pool and take an penalty I must incur to do it.

[ZBTMP]

I'd consider Nelson for Simmons, but I don't think Simmons could have prevented 2014 collapse so I'll go with Turner over Medeiros as well at this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

2011 MLB Draft: I'll go with Pick #18 RHP Sonny Gray over Pick #15 Jed Bradley.

 

 

Honorable Mention...

 

2012 MLB Draft: I desperately wanted the Brewers to pick 1B Joey Gallo. They have 3 high picks (27,28,38)

 

They pick...

27. C Clint Coulter

28. OF Victor Roache

38. OF Mitch Haniger

 

Gallo goes pick 39. F my life!

 

You do realize some are projecting Haniger to be right in the mix for ROY? I'm just happy they got Davies essentially for him. But Coulter and Roache have been huge misses.

 

Give me Turner over Medeiros.

[brewcrewdue80]

I am taking Jose Fernandez in 2011 and after he doesn't sign I am selecting Corey Seager in 2012 with the pick.

Interesting idea, but very risky taking a HS player with an unprotected pick (comp picks for unsigned players are not protected). The Dodgers had to go $400K over slot to sign Seager and that was with a protected pick; any halfway decent agent is going to leverage that unprotected pick and hold the team hostage. If Seager walks away from the table, the Brewers get nothing from either pick. Unlikely but very possible.

 

Not sure that Glasnow would be eligible because he was a significant oversign - he signed for almost 4x the slot value.

 

 

Brewers would have selected him 13th vs the 18th the Dodgers selected so that 400k overslot, is that total even the Slot for Milwaukee at that point? And going back: 2.678million to 2.110mil or 568k difference.

If it means anything Seager by MLB was rated #22 for that draft season, but that does tend to come out early. Roache was 27 Coulter 49 Brinson 39 Haniger 45.

[colbyjack]

He doesn't fall within the parameters of the challenge since he's more than 5 picks behind Coutler and Roache (and a couple of picks ahead of Haniger) but Stephen Piscotty has quickly turned himself into essentially what the Brewers hoped to get with either Coulter or Roache.

 

Staying within the parameters for that year I take Berrios. Lance McCullers is another that applied but the bonus that was required to sign him obviously was huge, and a big reason why the Astros went with Correa #1 (who talents were still warranted for the pick).

 

Overall I take Corey Seager as others have mentioned. I don't think you have to overthink the risk involved, as others have noted he still would have been plenty high of a pick.

[MrTPlush]

This thread has me thinking of two things:

 

1. Everyone is always saying we need to pick so high in the draft, but just about every year within 5 picks after ours an elite player(or prospect right now) was picked. Not just positional players as there were multiple pitchers too. Many times in the comp round and the second round too.

 

2. This team has flat out just sucked at drafting for years.

[adambr2]

I tend to wonder how many of today's stars or top prospects would still be so if we had picked them.

 

Certainly we haven't drafted well enough, I'm just curious as to whether there is a major coaching flaw in the farm system that has helped contribute to the problem. It isn't normal to take this many pitchers as we have over the years, especially picking high most years, and literally have two that turn out to be more than #4s in 25 years.

[LouisEly]

But my pick would probably be Cody Bellinger over Taylor Williams in the 4th round of the 2013 draft. I wish it wasn't Taylor Williams because I really like the guy, but adding Bellinger is a no-brainer.

Interesting choice. Given that A.J. Reed was the pick after Gatewood, would you rather have Bellinger and Gatewood or Taylor Williams and Reed?

[Mass Haas]

Only looking ten rounds deep on these...

 

Angels took Garrett Richards three picks after Brewers selected Kentrail Davis in the supplemental 1st round in 2009. Davis was the pick for losing CC Sabathia.

 

DJ LeMahieu and Kyle Seager were taken within ten picks of Max Walla / Cameron Garfield in the 2009 2nd round.

 

***

 

2010:

 

J.T. Realmuto went eight picks after Tyler Thornburg in the 3rd round, tough call, but Realmuto looks to have a fine future at a premium position.

 

James Paxton was taken three picks after Hunter Morris in the 4th round.

 

2011:

 

I'm going to break the rules by one pick and note Mookie Betts went 11 picks after Michael Reed in the 5th round.

 

Anthony DeSclafani went eight picks after Brewers took RHP Daniel Keller in the 6th round.

 

Side note, again breaking the rule by one pick: Travis Shaw was taken 11 picks after Brewers took OF Malcolm Dowell in the 9th round.

 

***

 

I'll try and add notables from 2012 and forward later, or if someone wants to volunteer, Baseball Reference makes this very easy. Here's 2012's first and supplemental round, and then there's a link on the very same page to help you quickly move through rounds 2 into round 10.

 

One thing you learn from researching this exercise is just what an amazing crapshoot / dartboard the MLB draft is. My goodness.

[LouisEly]

Good call on Paxton, not sure how I missed that one. He's been hurt quite a bit, but coming back from injury at the end of 2014 would he have been able to help reverse the skid that the 2014 season ended on? Maybe, but after Seid passed away I don't think anything was going to bring that team back.

 

I thought about Richards, but am a bit worried about him putting off TJ surgery for stem cell therapy. I was looking at who would have the most value now, and serious injuries certainly decrease a player's value. And Richards going down at the end of the 2014 season might have amplified the agony of the last two months of that year even more.

[adambr2]

But my pick would probably be Cody Bellinger over Taylor Williams in the 4th round of the 2013 draft. I wish it wasn't Taylor Williams because I really like the guy, but adding Bellinger is a no-brainer.

Interesting choice. Given that A.J. Reed was the pick after Gatewood, would you rather have Bellinger and Gatewood or Taylor Williams and Reed?

 

I'd probably still rather have Bellinger + Gatewood, right now. This is probably unfair over such a small sample but it scares me a bit how bad Reed has been at the MLB level.

 

But there's a lot of good 'what if' deals that I'd like just as much that fall into this category. You certainly can't go wrong with Turner over Medeiros.

[dacbrewers]

2009...Remove Eric Arnett...add Steven Matz.

[brewcrewdue80]

Wasnt it 5picks? Did we move to 10picks recently?