Forsythe to Dodgers - DeLeon to Rays

[patrickgpe]

I don't get it for the dodgers, I know they needed a 2nd baseman but to give a top prospect up for one that is probably only slightly better than MLB average seems like a steep price.

http://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-trade-rumors-la-engaged-serious-talks-rays-logan-forsythe/2017/01/23/

[monkeyman343434]

Guess the Brewers won't be acquiring him in any deal now.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/dodgers-deep-in-talks-to-acquire-logan-forsythe-from-rays.html

[miggs721]

is forsythe that good? seems like a steal

[Greenleaf1]

1 year of Forsythe for De Leon seems like an absolute steal for the Rays. Also shows how desperate the Dodgers were for a 2B.

 

Really bummed about this.

[MadThinker88]

Wonder how the Tampa INF will shake out?

Perhaps they might have an interest in Scooter on a minor deal. Hate to interrupt the honeymoon of DS, but someone (he or an AGM) needs to be on the phone with Tampa and flush out a few details and get conversations started...

 

In retrospect, I believe the Twins overplayed their hand with Dozier. Now if he struggles out of the gate in '17 like he did in '16, his value will be suspect.

[Greenleaf1]

Apparently there's a club option for 2018 as well according to Twitter.

 

Baseball Reference has a typo or something as it says it's a 2017 team option, but in his salary history at the bottom there's a row for a 2018 option, maybe it doesn't update that until the 2017 option is selected although I'm assuming that happened already so maybe they're just slow to update.

 

2 years of Forsythe makes a LITTLE more sense than 1 year but this still seems like a dramatic overpayment. Dodgers have so much pitching depth that this doesn't hurt them that badly right now I guess.

[patrickgpe]

Scooter to the rays makes sense, I think given the chance to play every day he would put up similar numbers to Forsythe anyway at a lower price.

[adambr2]

It's basically a 2 year/16M commitment to a 2B who has been worth about 4 WAR a year since he became a full time player.

 

Cheap contract for a team that needs to save money, and it solves the 2B problem and helps the hitting vs LHP problem with 1 guy. Good deal for the Rays, but nothing not to like about it for LA.

 

Nothing to be disappointed about either. It doesn't close the door on a Braun deal, and DeLeon was never coming here for Braun anyway.

[Eye Black]

Well Andrew Friedman has now acquired Logan Forsythe on two seperate occasions, so he is at least familiar with what he is getting. I do wonder if De Leon was valued slightly less by the Dodgers front office staff than by the rest of the prospect-verse? The fact his name was floated out there so blatantly when we have heard some other Dodgers top prospects were considered nearly off-limits (i.e. Bellinger, Alvarez), makes me think they may not see a mid-to-top of the rotation future for De Leon.

 

Also curious how this effects the Twins. Do you now hold onto a second baseman entering his age 30 season that you were publically shopping the majority of the offseason while coming off a 59 win season? If the Twins believed De Leon was realistically a future mid-rotation starter, they should have pulled the trigger in my opinion.

[adambr2]

Well Andrew Friedman has now acquired Logan Forsythe on two seperate occasions, so he is at least familiar with what he is getting. I do wonder if De Leon was valued slightly less by the Dodgers front office staff than by the rest of the prospect-verse? The fact his name was floated out there so blatantly when we have heard some other Dodgers top prospects were virtually off-limits (i.e. Bellinger, Alvarez), makes me think they may not see a mid-to-top of the rotation future for De Leon.

 

Also curious how this effects the Twins. Do you now hold onto a second baseman entering his age 30 season that you were publically shopping the majority of the offseason while coming off a 59 win season? If the Twins believed De Leon was realistically a future mid-rotation starter, they should have pulled the trigger in my opinion.

 

It's possible the Twins were just not that high on DeLeon. He was never a highly touted prospect coming up. He just came out of nowhere.

 

We'll see what they do with Dozier now. There's still enough interest for them to deal him if they want to this offseason, but his market just shrunk.

[reillymcshane]

Well Andrew Friedman has now acquired Logan Forsythe on two seperate occasions, so he is at least familiar with what he is getting. I do wonder if De Leon was valued slightly less by the Dodgers front office staff than by the prospect-verse. The fact his name was floated out there so willingly when we have heard some other Dodgers top prospects were virtually off-limits (i.e. Bellinger, Alvarez), makes me think they may not see a mid-to-top of the rotation future for De Leon.

I heard last summer from a baseball writer that the guy the Dodger were willing to deal most of their top prospects was DeLeon. So I think your speculation may have some merit to it. I think the general argument is that he's probably more of a mid-rotation arm than a top-of-the-rotation guy.

[adambr2]

Scooter to the rays makes sense, I think given the chance to play every day he would put up similar numbers to Forsythe anyway at a lower price.

 

Scooter has about an identical amount of PAs the last 3 years as Forsythe, so lack of opportunities is not the issue. Forsythe is a much better player than Scooter both at the plate and in the field besides being far more versatile.

 

Scooter to the Rays makes enough sense, just don't expect anything of value in return.

[JosephC]

I think this is a pretty even deal. From the Dodgers perspective I would have preferred Dozier but he was going to cost more (rightfully so) and I believe Forsythe is a good fallback plan at a lesser price. He fills their second base hole with a right-handed bat and has pretty good pop in the bat for a middle infielder. With the excess of starting options it made sense for the Dodgers to move one and De Leon had the right combination of enough talent to get something of real value back but not with so much upside that he becomes a guy you refuse to let go of. The Rays don't have enough hitting to compete IMO, but they have Archer, Odorizzi, Snell and De Leon in the rotation and Colome at the back of the bullpen and those five guys all have at least 3 years of team control remaining. If those guys all hit their ceilings this pitching staff could be lights out in the near future.

[jerichoholicninja]

Forsythe is way underrated. .347 OBP, 119 OPS+, 37 HR, over 8 WAR the last two seasons, defense looks to be above average, and not that they need it but he can play 3B and 1B too. The only downside is he's only controlled for 2 years but LA could easily afford to extend him if they want.

[NievesNoNO]

Forsythe is way underrated. .347 OBP, 119 OPS+, 37 HR, over 8 WAR the last two seasons, defense looks to be above average, and not that they need it but he can play 3B and 1B too. The only downside is he's only controlled for 2 years but LA could easily afford to extend him if they want.

 

Agreed.

 

If I'm a fan of either team I'm happy. The Dodgers fill a need and deal from some depth. Tampa doing what they do, acquiring young pitching.

[patrickgpe]

Scooter to the rays makes sense, I think given the chance to play every day he would put up similar numbers to Forsythe anyway at a lower price.

 

Scooter has about an identical amount of PAs the last 3 years as Forsythe, so lack of opportunities is not the issue. Forsythe is a much better player than Scooter both at the plate and in the field besides being far more versatile.

 

Scooter to the Rays makes enough sense, just don't expect anything of value in return.

 

last season scooter hit .263/14/56

Forsythe hit .264/20/52

 

minus the power numbers, they are very similar. I agree that defensively and versatility are 2 big advantages over scooter. i don't expect a top prospect back for Scooter, but he wouldn't be a bad replacement for Logan for the Rays.

[monty57]

Scooter to the rays makes sense, I think given the chance to play every day he would put up similar numbers to Forsythe anyway at a lower price.

 

Scooter has about an identical amount of PAs the last 3 years as Forsythe, so lack of opportunities is not the issue. Forsythe is a much better player than Scooter both at the plate and in the field besides being far more versatile.

 

Scooter to the Rays makes enough sense, just don't expect anything of value in return.

 

last season scooter hit .263/14/56

Forsythe hit .264/20/52

 

minus the power numbers, they are very similar. I agree that defensively and versatility are 2 big advantages over scooter. i don't expect a top prospect back for Scooter, but he wouldn't be a bad replacement for Logan for the Rays.

 

Yeah, Gennett really doesn't have a role in Milwaukee, so any potential trade partner should be checked out. He is a relatively inexpensive, starting-caliber MLB player with some team control, so hopefully the Brewers can get something for him. Not elite talent, but something useful.

 

As to the trade-at-hand, two years of a decent MLB player for six years of a potentially good player is probably fair. I wouldn't be happy if the Brewers did this, but for the Dodgers, they have deep enough pockets that they can afford to trade away some prospects in order to win now.

[JohnBriggs12]

Rays could just stay in house and stick Nick Franklin or Tim Beckam at 2B.

[Austin Tatious]

I agree that this is a possible scenario. Matt Arnold would know their system so that might be interesting.

 

The bloom has fallen off the rose for Chris Betts. MLB has dropped him to their 30th prospect. He's had elbow problems but they are still going to try him at catcher. He's young so he's a boom or bust guy. A lot of their other prospects are somewhat on the older side. I wouldn't say Betts is enough. Scooter is an established MLB player with some pop and Betts is a pure lottery ticket.

[pogokat]

I agree with briggs--- i doubt they trade for anyone. I suspect his beckham guess is a good one.

[jerichoholicninja]

Scooter to the rays makes sense, I think given the chance to play every day he would put up similar numbers to Forsythe anyway at a lower price.

 

Scooter has about an identical amount of PAs the last 3 years as Forsythe, so lack of opportunities is not the issue. Forsythe is a much better player than Scooter both at the plate and in the field besides being far more versatile.

 

Scooter to the Rays makes enough sense, just don't expect anything of value in return.

 

last season scooter hit .263/14/56

Forsythe hit .264/20/52

 

minus the power numbers, they are very similar. I agree that defensively and versatility are 2 big advantages over scooter. i don't expect a top prospect back for Scooter, but he wouldn't be a bad replacement for Logan for the Rays.

 

I don't know if I could think of a worse way to compare these two guys than batting average, homeruns, and RBI's. Logan and Scooter aren't anywhere near the same player. Logan bested Scooter by 50 points of OPS, 21 points of OPS+, and 2.5 points of WAR last year in pretty much the same amount of playing time.

[Greenleaf1]

I think De Leon is not valued lower by the Dodgers, I just think when you're looking for a trade partner, they're going to look at where your depth is and what you can most afford to lose, so De Leon is a great prospect but at an area of depth for the Dodgers so they can more easily get rid of him. So basically everyone will ask for De Leon and if you want what they have to offer you have to be willing to deal him or someone better and they didn't want to deal someone better.

 

In a similar vein, everyone knows we're done with Gennett after trading for Shaw and moving Villar to 2B, so he has absolutely no value on the trade market. You could probably sign a guy for relatively similar cost and performance, so at this point we'd be trading Gennett as a salary dump (which is fine by me) since he won't get enough playing time to try to re-establish himself anyways. Not entirely sure why they even tendered him a contract (or made a deal before they had to) since the writing seemed to be on the wall already that Villar would move to 2B.

 

Gennett might have some value as an add-on in another deal (Guerra?) if you can find the right team with a need at 2B. Maybe it's like the housing crisis where if you package enough of these bad assets together (Gennett/Garza package anyone?) you can send them back to the ratings board and get them AAA-certified (hopefully I'm not the only one here who saw The Big Short).

[WV Brew]

Gennett has the better lifetime OPS. He is also 3 years younger than Forsythe and has been much better at the same age. Maybe he won't improve as Forsythe has done the last two years but there is still that possibility despite all the hate he gets here.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I don't know if I could think of a worse way to compare these two guys than batting average, homeruns, and RBI's. Logan and Scooter aren't anywhere near the same player. Logan bested Scooter by 50 points of OPS, 21 points of OPS+, and 2.5 points of WAR last year in pretty much the same amount of playing time.

 

To be fair, he mentioned that Forsythe was better defensively, and had more defensive versatility, but yeah, I agree. RBI is a stat that almost doesn't matter one bit. It's entirely dependent on where you hit in the order, so for comparison purposes, should pretty much just be tossed out the window.

 

I think other GM's maybe are not going to see a lot of viability in Scooter for the two facts that he does NOT have any defensive versatility at all, and historically, he's been super terribad vs. lefties. Yes, he did better vs. lefties this year, but does another GM see that as an abberation in the small sample size, or is it a change in his approach?

 

I think it might be tough for Scooter/the Brewers to find someone who wants to find a full time job to give to a guy who's probably at best a 2 WAR player if they have younger/cheaper in house options, even if they're not as good. Better to find out what you might have, than a known quantity like Gennett, who has a pretty low ceiling.

[brewcrewdue80]

About Gennett, can he be optioned to AAA? I don't recall him being sent back to the minors multiple times. If at all. Looking at his minors and ML time. 0 time in 2014 in minors. 2games last year which I'll guess is of a DL stint. 2015 he had 2 stints of time in the minors so maybe early in 2015 or is that injury DL stints as well?

 

I'm thinking Gennett can just be optioned to AAA and be a veteran backup in case any of the 2b,SS, and 3b go down in injury.

 

As to the trade. Figure out the WAR for Forsythe vs Dozier for 2015? Dozier has an equal slg, worse .236BA-.280/.307-.359OB not much defensive. 0 to .9DWAR but 2.6 more Wins. Overall, the two are being paid the same which considering the Dodgers money situation 7million doesn't make it better. I think Dozier is certainly the better player but understand going with Forsythe for 1 prospect. Tampa loses it's 2nd highest cost on payroll and they avoided taking in any contract for a better return which is sad that a MLB franchise struggles to run above 70million in payroll. 77mil is their all-time highest which is barely even double what Trout/Kershaw get next season.

 

I'm thinking in the Dodgers case they went ahead and parted with De Leon because they are full with Pitchers on the MLB team and in their upper minors if they need to call any up. We'll see how Forsythe's game translates to NL West parks vs the AL East's. I guess this is a fair deal maybe just a little overpay on the Dodgers end