Brewers sign Neftali Feliz to 1 year/$5.35MM deal; Latest: DFA'd on June 14th

[pacopete4]

But by using advanced stats we can clearly tell he's been quite lucky to even be 8 out of 9 in save chances. You can always be preemptive in making a move before the guy costs us more games.

 

Moved this here since the other one will eventually go away.

 

In the four games where Feliz has taken the loss he is:

0-4 with 1 blow save, 9 earned runs allowed in 3.1 innings pitched, walking 2, striking out 3 and allowing 4 homers.

 

In the other 13 games he has pitched:

0-0 with 8 saves, 2 earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched, walking 7, striking out 13 while allowing 0 homers.

[MillerParkSouth]

I like it. Would have been nice if there was an option year to maximize the upside/potential return, but if he can keep his HR numbers down, he could thrive and be flipped for an interesting piece at the deadline.

 

D'OH

[patrickgpe]

i do not like to overact to closers, but i think it would be smart to let Feliz pitch it low-leverage situations, promote Knebel to the closer, let barnes set up and see what happens.

[pacopete4]

You take Feliz out of the closers spot and you lose anything you'll get for him. He's a guy that has been good at getting the last out so far. Use him when we have a lead and build up his worth. Don't tear it down because he reminds us of Krod by the walks and homers. Someone will bite on him if he does well enough by mid July.

[JimH5]

He should be banished to mop-up duty for awhile and give Knebel the 9th inning.

 

This is Eric Gagne-lite.

[SomewhereInTime]

But by using advanced stats we can clearly tell he's been quite lucky to even be 8 out of 9 in save chances. You can always be preemptive in making a move before the guy costs us more games.

 

Moved this here since the other one will eventually go away.

 

In the four games where Feliz has taken the loss he is:

0-4 with 1 blow save, 9 earned runs allowed in 3.1 innings pitched, walking 2, striking out 3 and allowing 4 homers.

 

In the other 13 games he has pitched:

0-0 with 8 saves, 2 earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched, walking 7, striking out 13 while allowing 0 homers.

 

I get that, I'm just not sure he'll continue to have good numbers in save situations given his struggles in non save situations. He's still walked too many in those successful saves. With how Knebal has pitched it's tough to not want him in the closers role.

[bjkrautk]

High- or low- leverage situations don't seem to be the problem. He has pitched reasonably well in save situations, but has been cuffed around in non-save situations. Stop pitching him in tie games, and stop pitching him when up more than 3 runs.

 

(Extra innings or bullpen fatigue may affect the viability of this pattern, I realize.)

[mrn1ceguy]

I truly hope the guy bounces back, but this is a pretty great exhibit for why signing a guy to trade him later that same year is not a worthwhile strategy.

 

I actually disagree and this situation shows why this strategy even exists (even though it doesn't look like it will work this year for the Brewers). People often claim in the off-season for the teams expecting to compete to sign 2-3 of the top bullpen players to high dollar contracts and not have to worry about greatly over-paying for relievers at the deadline. Teams don't do that because they can't afford to get stuck with an expensive reliever who under performs for 40 or more innings like Feliz is doing right now. So instead, the non completing teams sign these relievers to one year deals and the competing teams can then overpay for 30-40 innings of whichever 2 or 3 relievers are performing well from the non-competing teams and the left over relievers who aren't performing (i.e. Feliz) can be "stuck" with the non-completing teams. Being stuck with the bad reliever is an acceptable risk when the reward is considered.

 

In the grand scheme, we leveraged 30-40 innings to a risky reliever who could potentially turn into a great haul (top 100 prospect) at the deadline whose poor performance (if he doesn't perform) likely doesn't change the outcome of our season. If he succeeds, we get more long term talent. If he fails, we waste 30-40 high leverage innings to a bad reliever, he gets demoted to a mop-up role mid season and we waste a few millions. This only works because of the high flame out rate and the contenting teams can't afford to be stuck with a high cost / poor performing reliever.

 

While this strategy didn't work this year, it shows why it exists and will be something the brewers will likely be involved with again (hopefully as the contending team).

[pacopete4]

 

I get that, I'm just not sure he'll continue to have good numbers in save situations given his struggles in non save situations. He's still walked too many in those successful saves. With how Knebal has pitched it's tough to not want him in the closers role.

 

Easy to see the messy results right now and make a move that doesn't help this team moving forward. If they move Feliz from the closers role then just cut him because you've lost any value in him. Knebel will have his day. Just doesn't have to be tomorrow.

[tmwiese55]

Yea might as well ride him for another few weeks and see what happens. We're not winning it all this year. If he continues this way then move to Knebel. Who knows, maybe could even flip hiim right away too while he's hot and get a good return ala the Smith, Thornberg, Jeffress strategy.

[JimH5]

I like this in part because it probably gives Tyler Cravy some satisfaction. I do hope they call him up sometime soon and he is able to stick it to the man.

[pacopete4]

I like this in part because it probably gives Tyler Cravy some satisfaction. I do hope they call him up sometime soon and he is able to stick it to the man.

 

You're kidding, right?

[JimH5]

I like this in part because it probably gives Tyler Cravy some satisfaction. I do hope they call him up sometime soon and he is able to stick it to the man.

 

You're kidding, right?

 

Not really. It's a long season and I like drama sometimes.

 

Obviously, I'd like it more if Feliz was dominant, but if he's going to stink, I'm happy for Cravy.

 

Haven't you ever been passed over for a promotion and then smiled to yourself when the new guy falls on his face? That is one of life's great pleasures!

[sveumrules]

Feliz has looked pretty shaky even when he hasn't given up runs (only 6 of his 18 appearances have been baserunner free & 2 of those were only a single batter faced) but I think you've got to give him a few more blowups before you shuffle the roles at this point & hope he figures things out.

[trwi7]

 

What are we flipping this guy for at the deadline again?

 

I was told about 10 days ago that we would get good value because he was striking guys out or something. Just ignoring that he was also walking a ton of guys and leaving meatballs over the plate that consistently get crushed.

 

I was dubious of getting a nice haul for him even if he was pitching well. Only signed for 2 months and he's clearly not in the Chapman tier that could get you a really good piece despite being a rental.

[patrickgpe]

Easy to see the messy results right now and make a move that doesn't help this team moving forward. If they move Feliz from the closers role then just cut him because you've lost any value in him. Knebel will have his day. Just doesn't have to be tomorrow.

 

there is no evidence that the brewers will be able to flip Feliz no matter how many saves he has at the deadline. Last season the brewers had the NL HR champ on a cheap 1 year deal that they got from the scrap heap just like Feliz and wasn't able to get ANYTHING for him. I know teams will start trying to inquire about relievers in July but given rate that he gives up HR's, not just this season but in his career, why would a team want to bring him into a playoff race.

 

Last season, even after the Pirates traded their closer, they gave the ball in the 9th to someone else, and he was having a pretty decent season last year.

[brewmann04]

The brewers lucky to give him only a 1 year deal

[MrTPlush]

I like this in part because it probably gives Tyler Cravy some satisfaction. I do hope they call him up sometime soon and he is able to stick it to the man.

 

Yah he was definitely satisfied that Felix gave up 3 runs against an elite line up where as Cravy put up a 4 ER dud in AAA at the same time.

[istanbultaye]

The brewers may not be able to get anything for Feliz at the deadline, but I am not overly concerned. I'm one of the believers that the "closer" isn't truly the most important bullpen spot, so if having him be the "closer" let's Counsell mix and match his other relievers a little bit based on who's hot for the 6/7/8 innings then it's not that bad of a thing to have the lesser reliever be the closer. If, at the end of June, he is still having too many bad outings then cut the losses and put him on waivers to see if anyone might at least claim him to save some salary. If he turns it around and has at least a solid month going into July, even if his overall numbers aren't great, they would still probably be able to trade him for some sort of low level prospect.

[JimH5]

I like this in part because it probably gives Tyler Cravy some satisfaction. I do hope they call him up sometime soon and he is able to stick it to the man.

 

Yah he was definitely satisfied that Felix gave up 3 runs against an elite line up where as Cravy put up a 4 ER dud in AAA at the same time.

 

Ugh. So no storybook ending for Cravy today. Or for me.

[adambr2]

Yeah Cravy, Dillard, and Goforth all with total ERA busters today.

[JohnBriggs12]

Time to put Peralta in the pen where I think he can flourish.

 

Brewer relievers in general (not just Feliz) have a hard time getting strike one on anybody. I think Peralta would be a bulldog in late innings. For an inning he could work at 96-98 with a formidable slider.

[danzig6767]

Time to put Peralta in the pen where I think he can flourish.

 

Brewer relievers in general (not just Feliz) have a hard time getting strike one on anybody. I think Peralta would be a bulldog in late innings. For an inning he could work at 96-98 with a formidable slider.

Peralta already throws 95-98 as a starter and he doesn't have a formidable slider because his command of it is to erratic.

 

Willy has the same problem Feliz has, a lack of command. Both have a history of walking to many batters and in relation to that, getting behind in the count to much which leads to problems for any pitcher in regards to hard hit balls.

 

Watching Kimbrell compared to Feliz was so stark. For as much as Kimbrell is known for his high 90's fastball, he also has great command of his filthy slider. Both pitches combined are a nightmare for hitters. Feliz on the other hand has terrible command of his slider, so hitters don't really have to think of it and a 95-98mph fastball isn't exactly rare in today's baseball. He gets behind in the count and hitters sit dead red on his fastball because he can't command the slider enough to trust it down in the count.

[jerichoholicninja]

Never understood the Wily to the pen desire. He can't throw strikes. He'd go out and do the exact thing everyone is already complaining about.

[Ennder]

Never understood the Wily to the pen desire. He can't throw strikes. He'd go out and do the exact thing everyone is already complaining about.

 

Because he exactly fits the profile of starter turns into RP. Walks don't hurt as much as a RP, you can throw even harder and fastball+slider is a viable combo. Peralta screams bullpen guy with every single skill he shows. I don't know about closer since he can't get out lefties, but he would be so much better in the pen than as a starter. Guys with 2 pitches just don't do well as starters.

 

OPS by time through lineup

 

.725, .754, .818.

 

OPS at 75+ pitches is .871.

 

He doesn't have the stamina or arsenal to be a starter.