2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

[shanedog19]

I really hope we saw Garza's last start in a Brewer uniform last night.

[A Swing and A Drive]

When is Brent Suter expected to be back from the DL if at all this season?

[JohnBriggs12]

When is Brent Suter expected to be back from the DL if at all this season?

 

Bet on Sept. 1. Whether or not it's in the pen or starting depends on what other guys do the next 10 days.

[markedman5]

As expected Woodruff sent down to make room for Chase

[pacopete4]

There's no reason Woody shouldn't be in Garza's slot come Sept. 1

[djoctagone]

As expected Woodruff sent down to make room for Chase

unless recalled for an injured player, woodruff will burn his first option, having accumulated more than 20 days optioned.

[rickh150]

Garza needs to go.

[JosephC]

There's no reason Woody shouldn't be in Garza's slot come Sept. 1

 

Woodruff should be in Garza's spot now. Pretty incredible that the Brewers are going down to a four man rotation for the rest of the month and decided Garza is one of their four best starters?!

 

Can't figure out what would be so attractive about Garza's 9.16 ERA/1.98 WHIP in August that would motivate the Brewers to keep him in the rotation. Too small a sample size? How about the totally mediocre 4.81 ERA/1.40 WHIP/5.10 FIP he has on the season. Maybe his historical performance should keep him in the rotation? From 2015-2017 he has a 5.07 ERA/1.50 WHIP/82 ERA+.

[adambr2]

There's no reason Woody shouldn't be in Garza's slot come Sept. 1

 

Woodruff should be in Garza's spot now. Pretty incredible that the Brewers are going down to a four man rotation for the rest of the month and decided Garza is one of their four best starters?!

 

Can't figure out what would be so attractive about Garza's 9.16 ERA/1.98 WHIP in August that would motivate the Brewers to keep him in the rotation. Too small a sample size? How about the totally mediocre 4.81 ERA/1.40 WHIP/5.10 FIP he has on the season. Maybe his historical performance should keep him in the rotation? From 2015-2017 he has a 5.07 ERA/1.50 WHIP/82 ERA+.

 

It's probably only going to be 2 starts, but 2 starts is pretty huge at this point in the season.

 

It'll be Garza vs Moore in SF, which is a very winnable game, but if Garza gets shelled again and we lose 9-8 and end up missing the playoffs by 1 game, that will give Stearns and Counsell something to think about in the off-season, no doubt.

 

With that said, I'm okay with this one last shot to get back on track, but if he puts up another clunker, it's time to pull the plug. Even if you can't make it til September 1st. Guerra has been pitching well for Colorado Springs and could cover the last start in August since you now can't recall Woodruff for 10 days.

[bill hAll Star]

I think they'd have had to have gone with Woodruff on 3-days rest to throw him where Garza is throwing @SF.

[Outlander]

Or they could have just gone with their original plan of Woodruff Friday and Garza Saturday but they were planning all along to send Woodruff down no matter how well he pitched or poorly Garza did.

[FVBrewerFan]

I like it. I rather limit Woodruff a bit now so he's fresh at the finish line. I still have bad memories of Marcum wearing down at the end of the season. Let Garza have his start, put him on a short leash and Hader will be ready to pitch multiple innings.

[newrivervalley]

Nice to have many arms in minors, but..... At some point Brewers will need a proven starter in trade or FA.

[KeithStone53151]

I like it. I rather limit Woodruff a bit now so he's fresh at the finish line. I still have bad memories of Marcum wearing down at the end of the season. Let Garza have his start, put him on a short leash and Hader will be ready to pitch multiple innings.

 

Starting in September, we should have enough arms up that Garza should never be allowed to get into a position to allow more than 5 or 6 runs in a game...possibly not even that many. Hader/Suter/Guerra possibly Jungmann...all can go 3+ innings if needed.

[FVBrewerFan]

I like it. I rather limit Woodruff a bit now so he's fresh at the finish line. I still have bad memories of Marcum wearing down at the end of the season. Let Garza have his start, put him on a short leash and Hader will be ready to pitch multiple innings.

 

Starting in September, we should have enough arms up that Garza should never be allowed to get into a position to allow more than 5 or 6 runs in a game...possibly not even that many. Hader/Suter/Guerra possibly Jungmann...all can go 3+ innings if needed.

 

I basically agree with that, I guess I was talking more about Garza's next start. If he's bad in that start, no reason for him to pitch again this season. As you said, they'll have lots of options in September.

 

But when I say short leash for his next start, I wouldn't even let it get to 5 or 6 runs.

[pacopete4]

In his next start I would have Hader lined up to go or a roster move with a long man called up ready to go. If he stinks in the 2nd, replace him and give us a chance.

[Ennder]

Hader hasn't shown anything that gives me confidence he is one of our best 5 starters. He has still walked over 6 per 9 and has an xFIP over 5. An insanely lucky LOB% does not a starter make.

[OnTheBlack]

There's no reason Woody shouldn't be in Garza's slot come Sept. 1

 

Woodruff should be in Garza's spot now. Pretty incredible that the Brewers are going down to a four man rotation for the rest of the month and decided Garza is one of their four best starters?!

 

Can't figure out what would be so attractive about Garza's 9.16 ERA/1.98 WHIP in August that would motivate the Brewers to keep him in the rotation. Too small a sample size? How about the totally mediocre 4.81 ERA/1.40 WHIP/5.10 FIP he has on the season. Maybe his historical performance should keep him in the rotation? From 2015-2017 he has a 5.07 ERA/1.50 WHIP/82 ERA+.

 

It's probably only going to be 2 starts, but 2 starts is pretty huge at this point in the season.

 

It'll be Garza vs Moore in SF, which is a very winnable game, but if Garza gets shelled again and we lose 9-8 and end up missing the playoffs by 1 game, that will give Stearns and Counsell something to think about in the off-season, no doubt.

 

With that said, I'm okay with this one last shot to get back on track, but if he puts up another clunker, it's time to pull the plug. Even if you can't make it til September 1st. Guerra has been pitching well for Colorado Springs and could cover the last start in August since you now can't recall Woodruff for 10 days.

 

 

My impression on them sending Guerra down was for him to get a couple starts and then come back up. He hadn't pitched THAT poorly. I go back to that Pitt start where he came out and for the first 5 innings he looked like he did last year before tiring, then had a bad start, and then obviously didn't give up any runs, but was taken out after 3 innings despite not allowing any runs because his control was so bad.

 

We'll probably need something like him pitching like he did last year, or a young guy coming up and having a surprisingly good Sept for us to have a shot at the playoffs. I don't see the Brewers making it to the end of the season even in a race with Garza pitching..in any capacity.

[OnTheBlack]

Hader hasn't shown anything that gives me confidence he is one of our best 5 starters. He has still walked over 6 per 9 and has an xFIP over 5. An insanely lucky LOB% does not a starter make.

 

 

You can't just blame EVERYTHING that goes against the norm on luck. Hader's stuff is electric and while he struggles with command, he's able to walk guys and then leave them on base because he's so hard to hit.

 

I don't know what Hader's gonna do in the future, but the guy has incredible stuff and is almost uninhabitable vs lefties in particular so his LOB% is likely going to defy statistical norms.

 

To be a successful long term pitcher...obviously he's gonna have to bring his walk rate down by...at least 1/3rd...which would still be high.

[Baldkin]

It is a huge amount of luck.

 

The biggest correlation to giving up runs is letting guys on base and right now Hader is doing that a lot. He's stranded 93% of runners he's given up this year, that should be expected to be about 75% going forward.

 

He's given up a .211 BABIP against RHB's and .236 overall that is unsustainable, it will regress towards .300 going forward (everyone besides huge GB pitchers do)

 

He's also faced way more LHB's than he would as a starter thus far (40% vs LHB's).

 

His xFIP is 5.03.

 

I'm rooting for the guy, and want him to be a great starter, but thus far, every single peripheral he has shows he's been put in the best possible position to succeed (good on CC for that) and he's been lucky.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Starting in September, we should have enough arms up that Garza should never be allowed to get into a position to allow more than 5 or 6 runs in a game...possibly not even that many. Hader/Suter/Guerra possibly Jungmann...all can go 3+ innings if needed.

 

I basically agree with that, I guess I was talking more about Garza's next start. If he's bad in that start, no reason for him to pitch again this season. As you said, they'll have lots of options in September.

 

But when I say short leash for his next start, I wouldn't even let it get to 5 or 6 runs.

 

I wasn't really disagreeing with you, more than anything agreeing while adding that little tidbit. And when I say in a position to allow 5-6 runs, I meant moreso if he gets to the 2nd inning and has 2 on with 3 runs in...yeah that's enough. At most he could allow 4 runs in that case. No way should he be allowed to stay in there to allow the big fly to let it actually get to 5 runs. Even now, we have 8 in the bullpen and they haven't been worked all that hard recently with the off days(and we have 2 more coming up in the next week). If on a Garza start day, we have to use Hader/Torres/Jeffress for 4-6 innings...so be it. We shouldn't be giving away any games at this point, every game should be managed like a playoff game would be.

[KeithStone53151]

It is a huge amount of luck.

 

The biggest correlation to giving up runs is letting guys on base and right now Hader is doing that a lot. He's stranded 93% of runners he's given up this year, that should be expected to be about 75% going forward.

 

He's given up a .211 BABIP against RHB's and .236 overall that is unsustainable, it will regress towards .300 going forward (everyone besides huge GB pitchers do)

 

He's also faced way more LHB's than he would as a starter thus far (40% vs LHB's).

 

His xFIP is 5.03.

 

I'm rooting for the guy, and want him to be a great starter, but thus far, every single peripheral he has shows he's been put in the best possible position to succeed (good on CC for that) and he's been lucky.

 

Pitchers with electric stuff tend to strand more runners and have lower BABIP as they generate weaker contact. Just like guys with the highest exit velocities tend to have the highest BABIP numbers. You can't simply say "league average is X, so he should regress toward that". He's surely been lucky(nobody has a BABIP in the 220/230s or 93% strand rate), he isn't a 1.3 ERA pitcher. But he also isn't a 5 ERA pitcher in his current role, and probably not even a 4 ERA pitcher.

[shanedog19]

Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?

[OnaBadger58]

Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?

He has to be close to his innings limit. The earliest we will see Burnes imo will be next June.

[tmwiese55]

I'd think we can all be fairly comfortable that Woodruff will be the #4 starter come September. Also, I would think he'd be back before that in order to have him post season eligible, the way I understand the rules anyway. So who knows, maybe even if Garza gets beat up by SF they'll bring Woodruff up for Garza's next start and then sort it out after Sept comes around.

 

So the real question is on who they'll use as the 5 when needed. Would come down to Garza, Suter, Jungmann at this point I would think. This really rides on how Garza does the next two starts, if he recovers he carries on. If not I'd think they'd give Suter a couple runs at it when he's back.