2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

[pacopete4]

Is this a playoff rotation?

 

Guerra

Davies

Peralta

Nelson

Hader

 

If Hader is the ace some people feel he can be.

If Guerra can come back and pitch like he did a season ago.

If Peralta truly is the pitcher we've seen this season already.

If Nelson is the first two starts Nelson and not the last start Nelson.

If Davies is as good as he was a year ago.

 

Sure, then its a playoff rotation.

[FVBrewerFan]

Is this a playoff rotation?

 

Guerra

Davies

Peralta

Nelson

Hader

 

If Hader is the ace some people feel he can be.

If Guerra can come back and pitch like he did a season ago.

If Peralta truly is the pitcher we've seen this season already.

If Nelson is the first two starts Nelson and not the last start Nelson.

If Davies is as good as he was a year ago.

 

Sure, then its a playoff rotation.

 

To answer the question, I'll be even more blunt. No.

[Ennder]

Royals rotation was pretty terrible the year they won the World Series. Last years indians rotation was nothing special since their ace was hurt. There is no such thing as looking like a playoff rotation. You can win in the playoffs a myriad of ways.

 

Assume the Brewers rotation pitches to its career bests they would have a solid 1-2. You assume Hader is some sort of good number 3 and that one of the other guys actually steps up and you have a completely plausible playoff rotation. I doubt it happens but it is plausible. I don't know why we are talking playoffs this year anyway and if we are going for it next year we probably sign someone unless a couple guys break out.

 

Guerra - 2.81

Peralta - 3.53

Hader - 3.50

[superfly]

Is this a playoff rotation?

 

Guerra

Davies

Peralta

Nelson

Hader

 

For all the (rightful) discussion of Milone Jimmy Nelson sure delivered an A+ himself last night. And Counsell gets an A+ himself for how he handled it. The answer is definitively a no until proven otherwise.

[JohnBriggs12]

As one who has dismissed Milone, I must say after seeing him in person today handle the Cubs with relative ease, he is winning me over. He broke Bryant' s bat not once but twice. There was really no reason to pull him after 5 innings. Milone is a soft tosser but his 87-88 was beating Hendricks' 84-85.

[ZBTMP]

Basing a decision based on projections makes zero sense. Projections are fun, but they mean nothing. Silly really.

Making decisions exclusively based off of projections is silly. Ignoring projections in decision making is incompetence. Now they may have better inputs than publicly available systems, but I guarantee you every team has some projection system they utilize in decision making. Now projection systems are just a forecast and can be wrong (hi Ramon Flores…). Despite notorious inaccuracy, Im guessing you still utilize weather forecast to plan because it is the best data we have. I agree that you still need to look up at the clouds as the day goes on.

Since most of the other factors in this case are a wash between Garza and Milone (longterm upside, performance in previous season, etc.) its make logical sense to utilize projections that can take a large data set of historical equivalents.

That being said, I also cited advanced stats of xFIP and SIERA showing that Milone hasn’t pitched terribly just unlucky by random events so far. I still don’t like Milone and haven’t since Maas reported the Brewers were dining him, but Milone now has a 12:1 K:BB ratio with 2 starts being against the best team in the world. Anyway you look at it that is encouraging

As one who has dismissed Milone, I must say after seeing him in person today handle the Cubs with relative ease, he is winning me over. He broke Bryant' s bat not once but twice. There was really no reason to pull him after 5 innings. Milone is a soft tosser but his 87-88 was beating Hendricks' 84-85.

The best argument I’ve heard for Garza over Milone is Milone makes people uncomfortable. I don’t know what about Garza being 2 years removed from competing with Lohse for the league ERA title and another year further on the downside of his career with troubling drops in secondary metrics instills comfort.

We shall see what the Stearn & co decide to do, but they’ve made decisions in past showing they have some affinity toward Milone. I haven’t seen that for Garza.

[reillymcshane]

Is this a playoff rotation?

 

Guerra

Davies

Peralta

Nelson

Hader

It all depends on the hitters.

 

If guys who are hitting keep hitting (Thames, Braun, Pina, Bandy, Aguilar, Shaw, Santana), and guys that should be hitting better improve - or we replace them (Villar, Perez, Broxton, Arcia, Kirk N.) - then who knows. We have the 2nd highest OPS in the NL right now. And while Thames will regress, there's a lot of room for improvement.

 

With luck, the pitching could be average. But the hitting could be above average. Get into the playoffs, get some guys hot -- who knows. Also, in the playoffs, a 5th starter might not be needed - eliminating a potential weakness.

 

Note: I don't necessarily believe my scenario I just painted is super feasible. But I'm not discounting it.

[monty57]

Royals rotation was pretty terrible the year they won the World Series. Last years indians rotation was nothing special since their ace was hurt. There is no such thing as looking like a playoff rotation. You can win in the playoffs a myriad of ways.

 

Assume the Brewers rotation pitches to its career bests they would have a solid 1-2. You assume Hader is some sort of good number 3 and that one of the other guys actually steps up and you have a completely plausible playoff rotation. I doubt it happens but it is plausible. I don't know why we are talking playoffs this year anyway and if we are going for it next year we probably sign someone unless a couple guys break out.

 

Guerra - 2.81

Peralta - 3.53

Hader - 3.50

 

Yeah, it's nice to have this decent start to the season, but the playoffs are still a long, long shot this year. However, if we see some good signs, like shoring up 1B & 3B with above average players and seeing some of our SP break out, then it is possible we will look at 2018 as a potential playoff year.

 

If that's the case (not saying it is, but if) then the Brewers will try to use some of their free cash flow to land themselves a good starting pitcher, either in free agency or by taking on a lot of salary in trade. I'd love to bring in a good SP if we're using mostly cash instead of top prospects to land him.

 

To this year's rotation, it was nice to see Milone pitch well yesterday. I said above that Milone would basically need a no hitter to save his spot. He didn't do that, but he pitched well against a very good offense. , Both he and Garza are placeholders until Guerra's back and one of them will get some starts until then. I wonder if his outing yesterday is enough for the Brewers to dump Garza, who hasn't shown anything. I guess it's really whether the Brewers like holding onto Garza more then Marinez at this point, as Milone will probably at least be in the pen.

[bork]

I wonder if they'll kick the can down the road a bit and have Garza make another rehab start, since he wasn't sharp in his last one. Give Milone one more start.

 

And I'd rather not sign a FA SP, given our history. You've got to overpay or go a year or two longer than you should, being stuck with a crappy pitcher making a lot of money at the end of the contract. That's the nice part about actually having SP prospects in the minors.

[FVBrewerFan]

Nothing wrong at all with acquiring a pitcher via FA or trade. Doesn't have to be signing a Suppan type for 7 years at $50MM a year. Like everything else, you can find the right guy at the right time. There is risk, but you're not going to win the WS without some risk. Since Stearns seems to be right far more often than wrong, I would trust him to sign a pitcher that will help them and not break the bank.

[djoctagone]

brent suter has definitely earned a spot in the brewers rotation. assuming matt garza comes back next week, and that chase anderson returns one to two weeks ahead of schedule, what should happen to the weakest link in junior guerra?

 

guerra has one minor league option remaining, but it could go unused if he spends less than 20 days optioned to the minor leagues. perhaps the brewers will explore guerra getting a couple starts in the minors after anderson returns and recall guerra in september?

[NYChez]

brent suter has definitely earned a spot in the brewers rotation. assuming matt garza comes back next week, and that chase anderson returns one to two weeks ahead of schedule, what should happen to the weakest link in junior guerra?

 

guerra has one minor league option remaining, but it could go unused if he spends less than 20 days optioned to the minor leagues. perhaps the brewers will explore guerra getting a couple starts in the minors after anderson returns and recall guerra in september?

I'd be surprised if Anderson returns before August 20, but your plan makes sense. Guerra seems unlikely to turn it around this season and may end up as a long reliever in September.

[MrTPlush]

Junior Guerra is definitely get the boot when Anderson returns at this point. It should work out to where they can recall him and save the option which really is total luck for the Brewers.

[adambr2]

Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Garza/Suter seems like the pretty likely rotation for the rest of the season once Anderson returns, which looks pretty solid.

 

Guerra seems like a pretty easy choice for the first man out right now, but I'm not sure who would go after that if they went out and got Gray before the deadline. I doubt Suter was ever intended to be permanently in the MLB rotation, but you certainly can't take him out now. Not unless the rest of the league starts catching up to him and he puts up a couple duds, anyway.

[Boomer5]

Not sure where to put this but Brewer Nation on Twitter says Kirk N is headed to Milwaukee today.

 

Let the speculation begin!

[MrTPlush]

If they went out and got a starter I bet Suter would be demoted(actually maybe go to the bullpen, but might want him stretched out). While he has done well so has Davies and Davies has previous experience. I would personally option Davies and keep Suter. I think Suter will benefit from the league not seeing him before. Unfortunate everyone else in the rotation is also doing really well of late which hurts Suter.

[Boomer5]

If they went out and got a starter I bet Suter would be demoted(actually maybe go to the bullpen, but might want him stretched out). While he has done well so has Davies and Davies has previous experience. I would personally option Davies and keep Suter. I think Suter will benefit from the league not seeing him before. Unfortunate everyone else in the rotation is also doing really well of late which hurts Suter.

 

I don't know how they can demote Suter, He pitched the biggest game of the year like an ace. I know the analytics folks hate the term clutch because they don't understand it, but that was clutch.

 

I know that watching him pitch says he has no business getting major league hitters out but the results have been fantastic. He reminds me a bit of John Tudor.

[Ennder]

Suter has a 3.55 scFIP so the peripherals mostly support him pitching well as well. This doesn't just look all sorts of flukish like Guerra last year.

 

For what its worth Anderson is at a 3.59 and Nelson is at a 3.45. Those 3 have been legitimately good pitchers this year.

[djoctagone]

I would personally option Davies and keep Suter.

same advantage with davies as with guerra: keep him optioned for less than 20 days, and the option isn't burned. davies has two minor league options remaining.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Davies isnt getting optioned.

[crossface21]

Guerra will the one to go IMO, but then again-Wily Peralta is still on this roster, so who knows what they'll do when it gets to be decision time.

[MrTPlush]

Please realize my comment was if the Brewers added a starter(like Gray etc.) and then once Anderson came back. Because after ditching Guerra that leaves Davies/Suter as the next one out. Of course one could get traded if we were to acquire a starter.

 

It is becoming quite obvious Guerra will be the first starter out...not really a debate.

[crossface21]

Based off of how the starting pitching is shaking out, do they really need to go get another starter? If Davies has in fact found "it" again, a rotation of Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Garza, and Suter isn't too bad. Pretty solid. Then they have Guerra(yuck) or Woodruff waiting if something happens. I don't think there are any starters out there that are difference makers or at least worth what the the Brewers would be giving up. I say get another bullpen arm and shorten the game up.

[djoctagone]

say what you will about the 3-3 homestand, but we got a taste of a playoff-caliber rotation in five of these six games against two really good teams. that has to give fans hope down the stretch.

[brewmann04]

Very proud of this staff not so much of the offense