2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

[brewmann04]

Garza will replace Milione when he comes back and Guerra will come back and whomever is pitching the worst will move out of the rotation.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garza will replace Milione when he comes back and Guerra will come back and whomever is pitching the worst will move out of the rotation.

 

I don't see them moving any of Davies, Peralta, Anderson or Nelson out of the rotation unless one is just awful. Davies started like this last year too so I think it's just a matter of time when he'll settle it. That doesn't mean that Garza can't win a spot or force them to a 6 man rotation with a strong 5-6 starts, but it's going to take more than he's shown the last couple years. Mediocre won't cut it.

[FVBrewerFan]

Garza will replace Milione when he comes back and Guerra will come back and whomever is pitching the worst will move out of the rotation.

 

I don't see them moving any of Davies, Peralta, Anderson or Nelson out of the rotation unless one is just awful. Davies started like this last year too so I think it's just a matter of time when he'll settle it. That doesn't mean that Garza can't win a spot or force them to a 6 man rotation with a strong 5-6 starts, but it's going to take more than he's shown the last couple years. Mediocre won't cut it.

 

When Garza comes back, it won't be a 6 man rotation. He will replace Millone.

[adambr2]

Garza will replace Milione when he comes back and Guerra will come back and whomever is pitching the worst will move out of the rotation.

 

I don't see them moving any of Davies, Peralta, Anderson or Nelson out of the rotation unless one is just awful. Davies started like this last year too so I think it's just a matter of time when he'll settle it. That doesn't mean that Garza can't win a spot or force them to a 6 man rotation with a strong 5-6 starts, but it's going to take more than he's shown the last couple years. Mediocre won't cut it.

 

When Garza comes back, it won't be a 6 man rotation. He will replace Millone.

 

I think he means when Guerra returns.

[Greenleaf1]

Who would've thought that the concerns at this point in the season would be Guerra and Davies? Obviously Guerra's is only because of injury, but very happy so far with the performances of Peralta, Anderson, and Nelson (granted Nelson just has the one start so far).

 

Anderson is at 0.3 WAR already this year, halfway to his 2016 number for the entire season (although obviously poor performance could send it back down again). Hoping this is a breakthrough year for some of these guys and we don't have to get rid of everyone in our current rotation in order to be competitive again.

[joepepsi]

After two starts last year Anderson's ERA was 0.00 and the team won both games. After that he was awful until July. He was pretty good from then to the end of the season. I expect a similar 4 starter type performance this year. Sure looked good last night though.

[FVBrewerFan]

Peralta is living off FB command, and probably a little higher velo (hard to tell with new way of capturing pitch speed.) That's great if he can keep that up, but I have my doubts. His slider doesn't usually break much, almost looks more like a "get me over curve." I've seen him get lucky a few times hanging that pitch, but speed was enough to fool batters. On another night, they're HRs.

 

I have more confidence in Nelson. He added a change-up, but more importantly he actually threw it 9% of his pitches the first start. Doesn't sound like a lot, but that will really work for him. Very common for a pitcher to work on a new pitch in ST, but quickly abandon it once the season starts. So it was good to see that he looked comfortable throwing it. If he can command that pitch, my stock in Jimmy Nelson goes up 50%.

 

Davies has been the victim of getting squeezed, and he's a guy that simply can't function with a small and/or inconsistent strike zone. So how good he is will all depend on the ump each start. Over-simplifying, but not much.

 

Anderson, I missed both his starts- only heard parts on the radio so no real thoughts on him yet.

 

So that's what I'll be watching. Peralta's slider and Nelson's change, because I think their future depends on commanding those pitches.

[MrTPlush]

Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson all all intriguing. They could all make watching baseball a lot more fun to watch this year.

[brewmann04]

Yes guerra will take his spot at the top and they will go with Garza in the pen

[JohnBriggs12]

Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson all all intriguing. They could all make watching baseball a lot more fun to watch this year.

 

Nelson and Peralta have always had pretty high ceilings. If this is the year they put it together simultaneously for a full season it changes the outlook for this team dramatically. Add in a career year for Anderson and who knows what they can do. They'll need Guerra back healthy and Davies to settle in and some contribution from the likes of Garza or a young arm too but strong starting pitching can take a team a long way.

[ZBTMP]

If given the choice between Milone and Garza, If Milone pitches decently tomorrow against the Cubs, the Brewers should stick with Milone. While my preference is still Wilkerson or Barbosa (I guess they want him as a pen option) or even Espino and Suter, but between the 2, every projection has Milone as the better pitcher.

Zips: Garza 5.04 ERA 4.75 FIP / Milone 4.79 ERA 4.6 FIP

Steamer: Garza 4.90 ERA 4.72 FIP / Milone 4.29 ERA 4.25 FIP

Pecota: Garza 4.80 ERA / Milone 4.19 ERA

Milone has at least not walked hitters so far. I’ve seen nothing out of Garza that indicates he has anything left in the tank. Let him pitch out of the bullpen if you want the depth. But that also bring up who are they sending down. Despite his unimpressive start, I have far more faith in Marinez being a contributor this season than Garza.

[Outlander]

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Davies is fighting for his job this Thursday. There are only so many guys with options and think they will at least take a look at Garza before they get rid of him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Davies is fighting for his job this Thursday. There are only so many guys with options and think they will at least take a look at Garza before they get rid of him.

 

I don't think so. Davies had a bad April last year. His start Sunday was better than the numbers showed. Garza's strictly filler till Guerra is healthy. Milone will likely get rocked by Cubs again and will be DFA'd sooner rather than later.

[monty57]

I'd guess Milone starts tomorrow and then becomes our LHP out of the 'pen. Garza will take his spot in the rotation and Marinez will get sent to AAA.

 

Garza hasn't done anything to impress anyone so far this spring, including giving up 4 ER in 5.2 IP against Class A Iowa on Monday. He'll get a couple of starts before Guerra comes back to see if he has anything left in the tank. If everyone else is healthy when Guerra returns, that could be the end for Garza as a Brewer. By that time, if another SP goes to the DL we'll just call up a prospect rather than messing around with a washed-up vet.

[And That]

Yah, I'd wager Davies would have to have another 4-5 poor starts in the next month before they'd even consider sending him down.

 

My guess is that Milone is sent back to the bullpen. A Nieuwenhuis DFA wouldn't be completely surprising if they think CF is covered with Perez.

[MillerParkSouth]

I fail to see what Milone has done to deserve to keep his spot, especially since he shouldn't have had it in the first place!

[monty57]

I fail to see what Milone has done to deserve to keep his spot, especially since he shouldn't have had it in the first place!

 

I don't want to see Milone get another start. Seeing his picture in the "upcoming pitchers" slot virtually eliminates any potential we have of sweeping the Cubs. But, we need a warm body for one more day. Having two starting pitchers on the DL from day 1 sucks. Hopefully Guerra is back soon and we'll stay relatively healthy from here on out.

 

That said, barring him throwing a no-hitter tomorrow, I doubt there's any way he keeps his spot. They need one more outing before Garza will be ready, since he just pitched on Monday. Then Milone will be out of the rotation. I don't have a lot of faith in Garza either, but he will get at least a couple starts until Guerra's ready.

 

As to Milone's future, my guess is that he will remain in the pen since the Brewers don't have any other LHP in the pen. Marinez has not been pitching well, so he seems to me to be the odd man out. Milone is far from secure, but let's see if he can come in and get LH hitters out in a reliever role. That could really help the team, but if he stinks at that he's gone.

 

The silver lining is that we have some good prospects who are not too far off. We're still seeing what we have in some of the MLB guys, but soon we will be dumping some of the guys who don't have it, and replacing them with younger guys with more talent. The way Anderson, Peralta and Nelson are pitching is why it is important to use this year to see what we have in some people. This offseason, we were discussing sending Nelson to AAA, putting Peralta in the 'pen, and dumping Anderson. By giving them a chance, some will sink, some will swim and hopefully in the near future we'll be better off for giving these guys a chance and letting the prospects get some more "seasoning" in the minors. So far, Anderson, Peralta and Nelson have risen, while Milone and Suter have sunk. Given the way he's pitched lately, Garza will probably not do well, but he'll get a chance to see what he can do.

 

Then, the days of "seeing what aging vets have left" will hopefully be over. The MLB rotation will constantly be pitching for their jobs as young, talented guys are doing everything they can to force their way into the MLB rotation. That's a day I've been waiting for for a long time, and it looks like it's nearly here.

[ZBTMP]

I fail to see what Milone has done to deserve to keep his spot, especially since he shouldn't have had it in the first place!

There is something weird about Garza going out for multiple rehab starts a week removed from a full spring training.

Milone’s SEIRA is 4.14. His xFIP is 3.93. His PECOTA and ZIPs projections are over ½ run better than Garza. I know he sucks but I see zero evidence that Garza will be better. There is a possibility Garza outpitches him going forward, but I don’t think it is likely. Im just arguing the Brewers should play probability and that means Milone between the 2. We will have more data tomorrow night that may change my opinion.

[MrTPlush]

Basing a decision based on projections makes zero sense. Projections are fun, but they mean nothing. Silly really.

 

I think Milone is meant to be a veteran garbage can and the fact no better lefty exists that can also start. Too early to bring up young guys so this is what we get to see. Shows the lack of depth when it comes to lefties to a degree.

[pacopete4]

If Milone wasn't a lefty, he would've been out of out of the league awhile ago. The guy sucks. Garza will be back in that role after his next start more than likely and he should be. We are paying him a lot of money and if we are going to have one sucky starter, it might as well be a guy we are paying $10mil+

[FVBrewerFan]

I'd guess Milone starts tomorrow and then becomes our LHP out of the 'pen. Garza will take his spot in the rotation and Marinez will get sent to AAA.

 

Garza hasn't done anything to impress anyone so far this spring, including giving up 4 ER in 5.2 IP against Class A Iowa on Monday. He'll get a couple of starts before Guerra comes back to see if he has anything left in the tank. If everyone else is healthy when Guerra returns, that could be the end for Garza as a Brewer. By that time, if another SP goes to the DL we'll just call up a prospect rather than messing around with a washed-up vet.

 

This is exactly how I see it. Garza takes Millone's spot, Millone to BP, Marinez to AAA. Garza gets a couple starts, and then when Guerra comes back Garza is DFA. Of course, there could always be another injury before then. If Garza is decent, then I don't know what they do.

[And That]

Marinez can elect free agency if he's DFA'd and unclaimed on waivers. Dunno how much value they place on him internally, but if they take him off of the roster, he's probably not going to remain a member of the organization for long.

[Roderick]

Marinez can elect free agency if he's DFA'd and unclaimed on waivers. Dunno how much value they place on him internally, but if they take him off of the roster, he's probably not going to remain a member of the organization for long.

 

You think someone would put them on their 25 man roster? Probably someone else churning their bottom of the bullpen.

 

If not, then I assume the Brewers could tell him we are going to pay you more than the going rate to stay in the system. You know at some point during the year the Brewers will go with a 13 man bullpen. Adding in injuries and performance issues, you would think he would have every chance to get back to the majors with the Brewers.

[DR28]

Is this a playoff rotation?

 

Guerra

Davies

Peralta

Nelson

Hader

[adambr2]

Is this a playoff rotation?

 

Guerra

Davies

Peralta

Nelson

Hader

 

Not one that is probably going to win a series. Playoff rotations generally have only 3-4 starters, so one or two of those would probably head to the pen.

 

Guerra and Hader I would guess would be our best bets in the playoffs. Maybe Woodruff if he emerged as hoped. Then just take your pick from whoever has emerged from the rest.