2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

[LouisEly]

I'm in the "it will shake out in spring training" camp. Right now I'd say Nelson is the odd man out, given how he finished poorly and has options, but it could change.

 

Milone will be the next Gorzelanny/Zach Duke bullpen lefty, but not a starter unless emergency.

 

If I'm ranking them:

 

1) Guerra - earned it, and if he can come anywhere near what he did in 2016 he will be a very valuable trade chip

2) Peralta - downright dominant 2.92 ERA the 2nd half of 2016, got back to hitting 97/98

3) Davies - the most consistent (and will give a different look to hitters after seeing Peralta's 97/98 the day before)

4) Garza - finished strong, if he can replicate his 2nd half he could bring back a quality prospect or two

5) Anderson - by virtue of finishing strong, 3.02 ERA 2nd half of 2016, but Counsell needs to find confidence in him going more than five innings

 

6) Nelson - sending Peralta down helped, maybe it can help Nelson too

7) Jungmann - pretty darned good in AA when he got his confidence back, 2015 was pretty good too; Colorado Springs will not do him any good

8) Woodruff - not because he's better than Hader, but because he can go more innings in 2017 (158 innings in 2016)

9) Hader - might see early in the year if there are injuries, but only 126 innings in 2016 - I think Brewers will focus on building his innings with an eye on 2018 instead of yanking him back and forth between the minors

10) Lopez (see: Jungmann)

11) Wang

12) Wilkerson

[Mass Haas]

Aaron Wilkerson from the Aaron Hill deal.

 

Wow. He's been around for half a year and I'd never heard of him before.

 

Brewerfan Minor League Link Report -

 

 

Ah, just having fun on a Saturday AM, not everybody's cup of tea.

[ZBTMP]

No doubt. If you were referring to my statement, I meant getting AAAA depth to put after Wilkerson/Hader. Wilkerson's shot in 2017 largely depends on what happens with other players, though. If the Brewers feel Hader, Lopez, or one of those guys is ready, they probably get in line in front of him. And actually, not having a spot on the 40-man right now might work against him a little.

 

Nope just the general dismissal of Wilkerson as a viable rotation candidate entering the season is perplexing to me. MLB hitters may or may not be fooled by his fastball, but I would put the odds similar or higher than Nelson or Jungmann throwing enough strikes or Matt Garza finding the fountain of youth. Most projections peg him as our 3rd best starter behind only Davies and Hader ahead of Guerra.

 

Wilkerson? Burgos? There are 6 rotation arms right now. If half are traded that leaves 2 openings - Hader, Lopez, Milone, Jungmann are all taking a spot over those guys

 

Explain to me why with his statistical profile or scouting report why Wilkerson cannot achieve results similar to Mike Fiers.

Now you can argue we've evolved beyond needing players of Mike Fiers' talent level but I think we could always find a use for a player who can give us 3.5 ERA/FIP in his first 230 innings.

[CheezWizHed]

I hadn't included Wilkerson, Burgos or anyone else in my OP because they aren't on the 40-man roster. That could change of course, but I just see it as less likely to happen.

[RobDeer 45]

Maas Haas - Great use of the movie quote. I use that one all the time!

 

I'm just hoping that Garza can be better than worthless this year. Wish we could get rid of him.

[3and2Fastball]

Organizationally this is my biggest concern. A lot is riding on Hader for 2018/2019 etc. I'd bring him along slowly

[JohnBriggs12]

Maas Haas - Great use of the movie quote. I use that one all the time!

 

I'm just hoping that Garza can be better than worthless this year. Wish we could get rid of him.

 

Nothing's stopping them from getting rid of him just as nothing stopped them from getting rid of Suppan a few games into his last contract year. Problem with Garza is that even if he's okay, and sports something around his career ERA of around 4 through half a season, will that make him a target for contending teams when there will likely be other options available as well? Probably not. Could he put together a string of really good starts and turn into some actual value? Anything's possible, but if he does that, there's a chance the Brewers will be within striking distance themselves.

 

Brewers need to evaluate what they have in Arizona as best they can and go with their 5 best healthy starters regardless of contracts. If they deem Garza to be one of those 5, keep him. If not, let him go. It's not all that complicated.

[brewcrewdue80]

Maas Haas - Great use of the movie quote. I use that one all the time!

 

I'm just hoping that Garza can be better than worthless this year. Wish we could get rid of him.

 

Nothing's stopping them from getting rid of him just as nothing stopped them from getting rid of Suppan a few games into his last contract year. Problem with Garza is that even if he's okay, and sports something around his career ERA of around 4 through half a season, will that make him a target for contending teams when there will likely be other options available as well? Probably not. Could he put together a string of really good starts and turn into some actual value? Anything's possible, but if he does that, there's a chance the Brewers will be within striking distance themselves.

Brewers need to evaluate what they have in Arizona as best they can and go with their 5 best healthy starters regardless of contracts. If they deem Garza to be one of those 5, keep him. If not, let him go. It's not all that complicated.

 

See, I think Garza's contract in that exact situation makes him a deadline deal. You see a decent amount of that 4ERA type exchanging hands. And especially with 5mil option for 2018 that puts the likes of Pitts, Tampa, Minn, Miami, Oak, Sea, Baltimore all in play. Types that are cash strapped, or not expected to compete, but may be in position with a clearer view to sorta compete...Tampa, Minn, Miami, Oak in that regard. Not expecting much in the return, but the money saved, and the open SP slot he vacates.

[djoctagone]

it's interesting to note that the projected #1 and #2 starters for the 2017 rotation (junior guerra and zach davies) aren't highly paid, are both pre-arbitration and that either can still be optioned to the minor leagues.

[bork]

Also interesting that we have a week left in spring training and no clue how 3,4,5 will end up.

[FVBrewerFan]

Also interesting that we have a week left in spring training and no clue how 3,4,5 will end up.

 

Sure we do. Peralta and Nelson are 3,4. Then they can cut Garza and Anderson is #5 or keep Garza and Anderson is in BP. (Barring any trades or injuries, of course)

[bork]

I'm talking about what will happen which I think will be different than what we hope or expect to happen.

[Jenkins5]

Role Garza #5 and hope he builds stock to flip. Anderson long. Garza has until June before Hader hopefully forces way into rotation.

[Greenleaf1]

I imagine Garza will make the rotation but with a VERY tight leash. How many starts did Jungmann make before we optioned him? 4? I'd guess Garza gets April to show anything, and if he can't then he'll be gone because there'll be no realistic expectation that we can trade him and we'd rather have Anderson in the rotation than in the bullpen or AAA, since 2017 is likely his year to prove he belongs (or doesn't).

 

I think Jungmann is going to take the long man role in the bullpen.

[bork]

I'm pretty sure Milone won't make the rotation, but I wonder if he'll even make the bullpen or just get released.

[MVP2110]

Garza to the DL so we have our starting five.

Guerra, Davies, Peralta, Anderson, Nelson in the order

[dacbrewers]

Please put Milone on 10 day DL...or release him.

[And That]

Milone made the team as a reliever.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garza hurt? What's the point of keeping him around using a 40 man spot?

[FVBrewerFan]

I did predict a convenient injury at the end of camp to keep all 6 guys around.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Interesting that there was a story about them policing injuries more now that the DL is only 10 days. See if that's true now. Anybody really think Garza has a groin injury? I don't.

 

From Rosiak and the JS

"Garza didn’t appear to be in any discomfort after making his final start of the spring on Sunday"

[monty57]

Garza hurt? What's the point of keeping him around using a 40 man spot?

 

The article said they hope he's ready by the end of April, so this allows him to be insurance against another pitcher either getting hurt or completely stinking up the joint for a month. Shortly after that, they will be beyond the cutoff and can bring up Hader to replace anyone who is injured or under-performing.

[bill hAll Star]

Garza hurt? What's the point of keeping him around using a 40 man spot?

 

Other than the longstanding "why didn't they protect Diaz" debate which obviously is not currently relevant, who is worth a 40-man spot right now and what is the value of it? Garza is a heavily sunk cost, but he has 2 forms of value to me:

 

1. The Rangers paid $2 million dollars for 2 weeks of Kyle Lohse last year. Contending teams will be dying for any sort of pitching late in the year. Garza may be able to squeeze an ounce of trade value out. Even a million bucks saved in a trade would be nice.

 

2. He's another arm to soak up innings to keep service clocks from starting.

[tmwiese55]

He's essentially insurance on another guy getting hurt or really underperforming. You're already paying the money anyway, might as well keep him around just in case. A guy like Nelson could easily continue to struggle and they decide to send him down mid-April. Just like happened with Peralta later last year. Then you can throw Garza in for a few starts and see how he does, hopefully eat up some innings.

[dacbrewers]

Garza did a hell of job selling the phantom injury. Made me think his next role will be in Hollywood.