2017 Starting Pitching Rotation

[KeithStone53151]

Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?

 

I personally don't think so, but hard to say. Last year, Hader was not brought up during his breakout year. Woodruff followed a fairly similar pattern to Burnes last year and also was not called up. The year prior, Jorge Lopez WAS brought up during his breakout year in AA. Burnes has also thrown 137 innings this season and has 1-2 starts left prior to september and potentially could have AA playoffs. That's plenty of work to prepare him for potentially 180-190 innings in 2018 if the opportunity arises.

[FVBrewerFan]

Any chance at all Corbin Burnes gets brought up to start when rosters expand?

 

I personally don't think so, but hard to say. Last year, Hader was not brought up during his breakout year. Woodruff followed a fairly similar pattern to Burnes last year and also was not called up. The year prior, Jorge Lopez WAS brought up during his breakout year in AA. Burnes has also thrown 137 innings this season and has 1-2 starts left prior to september and potentially could have AA playoffs. That's plenty of work to prepare him for potentially 180-190 innings in 2018 if the opportunity arises.

 

Yea, I think the difference this year is they're in a pennant chase at the moment. If they wanted to be bold, they could have Burnes skip his next start and be available to start for the Brewers in September. Actually, he could even be in the post-season rotation if he has a couple great starts in September.

 

I will trust the Brewers to do what is best for Burnes and the team, as they have far more info on his medical history, how labored his delivery is, how many innings can they stretch him this year, etc. Maybe they keep that option open while they see what happens the rest of this road trip?

[Greenleaf1]

Seems like with all the options we have for September, it doesn't make much sense to bring up Burnes. I'd rather that they at least wait until next year and see what the rotation needs are come Spring Training (maybe bring him up either a few weeks into the season or in June after super 2 has passed).

 

Guerra and Jungmann seem like near-certainties to get September call ups as soon as the minor league season is over (maybe even before), and Jungmann would be a nice long-relief option in order to limit starts if they start to get out of hand (basically have a shorter leash on Garza is his struggles continue, or any other pitcher). Not sure how Guerra fits in, but they definitely will call him up if only to see what they have for next year. Seems possible that he gets a start or two to see if he can re-establish himself, and have Jungmann or Hader available to go multiple innings if he isn't getting it done.

 

Does anyone know what Guerra's velocity has been like since being sent down?

[tmwiese55]

Can't speak to his velocity but the results have been bad. High erea, poor whip, poor K to 9, still too many walks. If we're in contention I feel like he'll be low on the list to start.

[Greenleaf1]

Can't speak to his velocity but the results have been bad. High erea, poor whip, poor K to 9, still too many walks. If we're in contention I feel like he'll be low on the list to start.

 

Guerra's results at AAA:

 

2.45 ERA

25.2 IP

16 K

10 BB

0 HR

1.36 WHIP

 

So not stellar or anything, but the ERA and WHIP aren't "high" or "poor", especially not for CS.

[FVBrewerFan]

Seems like with all the options we have for September, it doesn't make much sense to bring up Burnes.

 

It makes sense if you want to go all-out to make the playoffs. Burnes is better than Wilkerson, Guerra, Jungmann, or anyone else. Not even saying they SHOULD do this, but that would be the reason. They would obviously know what that means, starting his clock early. There's also no guarantee he could come up and be really good immediately. All these things need to be weighed.

[tmwiese55]

Can't speak to his velocity but the results have been bad. High erea, poor whip, poor K to 9, still too many walks. If we're in contention I feel like he'll be low on the list to start.

 

Guerra's results at AAA:

 

2.45 ERA

25.2 IP

16 K

10 BB

0 HR

1.36 WHIP

 

So not stellar or anything, but the ERA and WHIP aren't "high" or "poor", especially not for CS.

 

I must have misread somehow. What i found on baseball reference was a 5.0 ERA but don't recall exacts on the other. Maybe I had some dyslexia going on with the categories or something, my bad if so.

 

ETA: figured it out. I put the .500 win % in the ERA category. 5.6 K to 9 though isn't ideal but yea for CS the rest is OK. Control was the issue up here more than anything and the BB rate isn't terrible, but also isn't good either in order to think it's still not an issue. But yea I'd think a key datapoint missing is the velocity.

[monty57]

Guerra was so far off that he obviously had something going on in his head. Hopefully the lower stress atmosphere of the minors allows him to correct that and he can come back strong. Unfortunately, no one will know until he's back in the majors if he's completely over it.

[gregmag]

So, Garza. Five decent innings against the second-worst team in baseball last week; otherwise he's a train wreck. Is there any earthly reason to keep him in the rotation when rosters expand? Could Guerra or Jungmann possibly be a worse bet as the fifth starter (I'm assuming Woodruff will be back as essentially #4)?

[reillymcshane]

One thing the club could do is put Garza on irrevocable waivers. Just let him go. The team that claims him, gets him. Why do this?

 

Save roughly $2M - that's what Garza is owed for the rest of 2017.

 

Would anyone want Garza? Perhaps. They'd be on the hook for the $2M this year - and then have the option of keeping him for $5M in 2018. Someone looking for a back of the rotation guy might want him. Stress might. I mean, if we don't want him, would anyone else? He might just go unclaimed as someone would rather spend the money on someone else. But even guys like Garza seem to get paid decently in FA.

 

Obviously, waiving Garza would mean turning over his spot the last month to Jungmann or Guerra or Suter (assuming Woodruff gets a spot). But to be honest, that might be better. If Suter is back, I'd trust him over Garza. And Jungmann has been decent at AAA. Maybe give him a chance to step up.

 

Also, waiving Garza opens up a roster spot.

 

Just an idea.

[KeithStone53151]

One thing the club could do is put Garza on irrevocable waivers. Just let him go. The team that claims him, gets him. Why do this?

 

Save roughly $2M - that's what Garza is owed for the rest of 2017.

 

Would anyone want Garza? Perhaps. They'd be on the hook for the $2M this year - and then have the option of keeping him for $5M in 2018. Someone looking for a back of the rotation guy might want him. Stress might. I mean, if we don't want him, would anyone else? He might just go unclaimed as someone would rather spend the money on someone else. But even guys like Garza seem to get paid decently in FA.

 

Obviously, waiving Garza would mean turning over his spot the last month to Jungmann or Guerra or Suter (assuming Woodruff gets a spot). But to be honest, that might be better. If Suter is back, I'd trust him over Garza. And Jungmann has been decent at AAA. Maybe give him a chance to step up.

 

Also, waiving Garza opens up a roster spot.

 

Just an idea.

 

I absolutely agree it should be considered. If he isn't claimed then what happens?

 

I could see the 5th rotation spot kinda being a bullpen game. Maybe Suter starts and when his spot in the order comes up they go to Guerra or Jungmann. We would be maximizing our offense, utilizing our strength of quantity of starting pitching, and you could also have a super quick hook on any guy if he doesn't have it a given day. You could also opt to leave a starter in if he's on fire on a given day. Regardless, the main idea of using pinch hitters early in games and utilizing our quantity of AAA SP that can serve as long relief to get through that 5th rotation spot when needed would be an interesting strategy and could very well work.

[reillymcshane]

One thing the club could do is put Garza on irrevocable waivers. Just let him go. The team that claims him, gets him. Why do this?

 

Save roughly $2M - that's what Garza is owed for the rest of 2017.

 

Would anyone want Garza? Perhaps. They'd be on the hook for the $2M this year - and then have the option of keeping him for $5M in 2018. Someone looking for a back of the rotation guy might want him. Stress might. I mean, if we don't want him, would anyone else? He might just go unclaimed as someone would rather spend the money on someone else. But even guys like Garza seem to get paid decently in FA.

 

Obviously, waiving Garza would mean turning over his spot the last month to Jungmann or Guerra or Suter (assuming Woodruff gets a spot). But to be honest, that might be better. If Suter is back, I'd trust him over Garza. And Jungmann has been decent at AAA. Maybe give him a chance to step up.

 

Also, waiving Garza opens up a roster spot.

 

Just an idea.

 

I absolutely agree it should be considered. If he isn't claimed then what happens?

He is a free agent. We are responsible for the rest of his salary (although if someone signs him, they are responsible for the pro-rated league minimum - so probably around a 100k.

 

If no one claims him, it shows you he had minimal value. If they can't get him free now, no one is going to trade for him in the off season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Guerra pulled after just 58 pitches tonight. Could he be making the start Sunday instead of Garza?

[KeithStone53151]

Guerra pulled after just 58 pitches tonight. Could he be making the start Sunday instead of Garza?

 

I think suter probably has dibs on starting before Guerra at this point. I do suspect they saved his arm a bit for potential long relief in September. I'm curious how they'll balance aaa playoff run with mlb stretch run.

[pacopete4]

Guerra over Suter for me.

[clancyphile]

So, Garza. Five decent innings against the second-worst team in baseball last week; otherwise he's a train wreck. Is there any earthly reason to keep him in the rotation when rosters expand? Could Guerra or Jungmann possibly be a worse bet as the fifth starter (I'm assuming Woodruff will be back as essentially #4)?

 

I'd keep Garza for garbage time, but try to package him in the off-season.

 

Even with his 4.77 ERA, at only $5 million, he's still got some value. Granted, it's probably gonna be two or three low-level lottery tickets - about what Lind brought back in the 2015-2016 offseason - or he is a throw-in to a Keon Broxton deal. That $5 million option is really cheap considering how much free agents will cost.

[KeithStone53151]

So, Garza. Five decent innings against the second-worst team in baseball last week; otherwise he's a train wreck. Is there any earthly reason to keep him in the rotation when rosters expand? Could Guerra or Jungmann possibly be a worse bet as the fifth starter (I'm assuming Woodruff will be back as essentially #4)?

 

I'd keep Garza for garbage time, but try to package him in the off-season.

 

Even with his 4.77 ERA, at only $5 million, he's still got some value. Granted, it's probably gonna be two or three low-level lottery tickets - about what Lind brought back in the 2015-2016 offseason - or he is a throw-in to a Keon Broxton deal. That $5 million option is really cheap considering how much free agents will cost.

 

Many free agents of Garza's current caliber and age don't end up finding jobs at all or get picked up on minor league deals. The way he's pitched down the stretch, that is very likely.

[clancyphile]

So, Garza. Five decent innings against the second-worst team in baseball last week; otherwise he's a train wreck. Is there any earthly reason to keep him in the rotation when rosters expand? Could Guerra or Jungmann possibly be a worse bet as the fifth starter (I'm assuming Woodruff will be back as essentially #4)?

 

I'd keep Garza for garbage time, but try to package him in the off-season.

 

Even with his 4.77 ERA, at only $5 million, he's still got some value. Granted, it's probably gonna be two or three low-level lottery tickets - about what Lind brought back in the 2015-2016 offseason - or he is a throw-in to a Keon Broxton deal. That $5 million option is really cheap considering how much free agents will cost.

 

Many free agents of Garza's current caliber and age don't end up finding jobs at all or get picked up on minor league deals. The way he's pitched down the stretch, that is very likely.

 

Perhaps, but at $5 million, he's still cheap considering the market.

[brewcrewdue80]

I saved Woodruff on my fantasy roster and update is him starting Saturday and moving forward as #5 starter.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd keep Garza for garbage time, but try to package him in the off-season.

 

Even with his 4.77 ERA, at only $5 million, he's still got some value. Granted, it's probably gonna be two or three low-level lottery tickets - about what Lind brought back in the 2015-2016 offseason - or he is a throw-in to a Keon Broxton deal. That $5 million option is really cheap considering how much free agents will cost.

 

Many free agents of Garza's current caliber and age don't end up finding jobs at all or get picked up on minor league deals. The way he's pitched down the stretch, that is very likely.

 

Perhaps, but at $5 million, he's still cheap considering the market.

 

Not at all. Guys like Guerra/Suter can do what Garza can do for $600k. Why would someone pay him $5 million? And for the few teams with no farm system options, why would they pick Garza over a dozen other similar guys that would likely do it cheaper. The return we might get if all breaks perfectly doesn't outweigh the risk of having to cut him for nothing. We wouldn't get anywhere near the Lind return for Garza, we'd get the Swarzak return at best.

[shanedog19]

Is Garza really going to make his scheduled start on Sunday? I was really hoping his start Tuesday night would be his last one in a Brewer uniform. Someone please console me.

[tmwiese55]

Is Garza really going to make his scheduled start on Sunday? I was really hoping his start Tuesday night would be his last one in a Brewer uniform. Someone please console me.

 

At least they moved Scherzer to Sunday. Sunday could be reminiscent of the 26-1 game in WAS a few weeks ago that Perez pitched in where we just punted the game before it started.

[pacopete4]

Is Garza really going to make his scheduled start on Sunday? I was really hoping his start Tuesday night would be his last one in a Brewer uniform. Someone please console me.

 

At least they moved Scherzer to Sunday. Sunday could be reminiscent of the 26-1 game in WAS a few weeks ago that Perez pitched in where we just punted the game before it started.

 

Scherzer vs. Garza?!? Drooling to see that matchup. Sounds like a W!

[tmwiese55]

Is Garza really going to make his scheduled start on Sunday? I was really hoping his start Tuesday night would be his last one in a Brewer uniform. Someone please console me.

 

At least they moved Scherzer to Sunday. Sunday could be reminiscent of the 26-1 game in WAS a few weeks ago that Perez pitched in where we just punted the game before it started.

 

Scherzer vs. Garza?!? Drooling to see that matchup. Sounds like a W!

 

Right, but it's better than having Max go Sat and then still have Garza or whoever the callup is go Sunday. Now you only have one game you're going into negatively. I bet this is Garza's last game starting, they'll sit Braun and others Sunday and just punt the game. Then try to use the bye days the next two weeks so you might only need a #5 one more time until the week of the 17th, and who knows they could be as good as out of it by then.

[shanedog19]

With the Cards promoting Jack Flaherty to their rotation, I would love to see them do the same with Corbin Burnes. What do we have to lose? He can't be any worse than Garza, can he?