Broxton article

[reillymcshane]

A lot of hype for Keon of late. Let's just hope he can sustain what he started last year.

[brewmann04]

They should be fun to watch

[adambr2]

If Keon ends up being for real, who between Broxton and Brinson has a more valuable glove in CF and which should be sent to a corner spot?

[trwi7]

If Keon ends up being for real, who between Broxton and Brinson has a more valuable glove in CF and which should be sent to a corner spot?

 

I'd say Brinson stays in CF.

[Ennder]

Anderson seems to be a 4+ ERA type.

Guerra most likely is a 4+ ERA type with a lucky year.

Garza is likely a 4+ ERA type.

Peralta is awful.

Jimmy Nelson seems to be a 4+ ERA type.

Zach Davies can't do it all himself.

 

The rotation is terrible and will stop this team from being any good.

 

If Broxton becomes the stud we all think he can become it just means Santana loses a job as he is a very average player in the OF and is easily replaced by Brinson. Not to mention Braun is likely on the way out.

[adambr2]

Fun stat for Pirate fans: Broxton had triple the WAR of Andrew McCutcheon last season in about 1/3rd of the innings and PAs. After being pretty much the worst player in baseball up until the AS break.

[pacopete4]

 

If Broxton becomes the stud we all think he can become it just means Santana loses a job as he is a very average player in the OF and is easily replaced by Brinson. Not to mention Braun is likely on the way out.

 

 

I think a lot of people are giving up on Santana and I'm not sure why? He played very well off of an injury last year and is young, very young. His exit velo is one of the tops in the league.

[Ennder]

 

If Broxton becomes the stud we all think he can become it just means Santana loses a job as he is a very average player in the OF and is easily replaced by Brinson. Not to mention Braun is likely on the way out.

 

 

I think a lot of people are giving up on Santana and I'm not sure why? He played very well off of an injury last year and is young, very young. His exit velo is one of the tops in the league.

 

Sorry I didn't mean that to sound like I'm giving up on him. Average isn't a bad thing. Corey Hart was average most of his career. Just if Brinson forces his way onto the team and Braun is still around I expect he is forcing his playing time away from Santana and not Broxton.

[ZBTMP]

Anderson seems to be a 4+ ERA type.

Guerra most likely is a 4+ ERA type with a lucky year.

Garza is likely a 4+ ERA type.

Peralta is awful.

Jimmy Nelson seems to be a 4+ ERA type.

Zach Davies can't do it all himself.

 

The rotation is terrible and will stop this team from being any good.

 

If Broxton becomes the stud we all think he can become it just means Santana loses a job as he is a very average player in the OF and is easily replaced by Brinson. Not to mention Braun is likely on the way out.

 

If those were the only 6 pitchers they had, I'd agree that they'd be terrible. But they have options. If you have 10 pitchers who have a 10% chance of being a good pitcher, its likely at least one will be a good pitcher. The best 2 pitchers last season weren't on the opening day roster. Could happen again.

Also; somehow, pretty much those 6 guys produced a sub 4 era and the 12th highest WAR in baseball in the 2nd half last season.

 

As for Santana, Im not ready to conclude "he is a very average player". May end up that, may end up less than that. But he is only 24 and did hit 122 wRC+ in the second half. Though I agree with the overall point that they will find a spot somewhere when Brinson is ready.

[adambr2]

All of this talk is why I really wanted Braun traded last August.

 

With no DH in the NL, we've kind of painted ourselves into a corner with him the next 4 years if he doesn't waive his NTC.

[monty57]

If Arcia is above .700 it will be tough for them to have 1,000+ ABs by sub .700 hitters. Although MrAllen shows it's entirely possible I guess. Tough to fight history.

Of the four highest OPS teams in baseball last year only Boston had fewer than 1,100 ABs by sub .700 hitters (BOS with 577 ABs, COL with 1,247 ABS, CHC with 1,106 ABs, and DET with 1,874 ABs). So it's possible, I just think it's very unlikely. Maybe this shows that a .700 OPS threshold isn't low enough to draw many conclusions from. Each team has about 5,500 ABs in a season, so we're only talking about 20% of a teams ABs, how the other 80% breaks down is probably more informative of a team's total offense. Anyways, not trying to be combative, just curious and found it interesting to dig into a little

 

As long as the sub-.700 guy is a whiz defensively, I'm fine with that. Last year's Brewers had a lot of those bad PAs going to guys who couldn't field very well and just had all-around bad years. Hopefully that's not going to happen as much this year.

 

Arcia could be sub-.700, but still be a plus to the team due to his hopefully elite-level defense. Shaw could be sub-.700, and is supposed to be a good defender, so he could still at least have some value even if the bat doesn't come around. The catchers... well, we have three of them so hopefully at least one of them steps up and has a good season. Other than that, barring injuries I don't see any other potential sub-.700 positions.

 

To topic of the thread, I'm very excited to see what Broxton brings this season. The Brewers could be in an interesting position if everyone stays healthy and productive, as all three of their MLB OFs have All-Star potential, and possibly their best OF going forward is sitting in AAA and looks to be MLB ready.

[Warning Track Power]

All of this talk is why I really wanted Braun traded last August.

 

With no DH in the NL, we've kind of painted ourselves into a corner with him the next 4 years if he doesn't waive his NTC.

I hear you Adam. While I have no clue as to what Ryan Braun thinks, I have to believe that given the way most Brewer fans stood by him and still cheered him after the PED thing, I would imagine he would not stand in the way of the Brewers continuing making progress in the rebuild by blocking a trade (provided the Brewers deal him to a place he already informed them he would go). With Braun, I am less worried about the 10 and 5 and more concerned about one of the ideal landing spots (California teams, Miami) wanting to make a move for him.

[MoreTrife]

I see a lot of talk of promise and hope with Broxton. Anyone worried about the fractured wrist? isn't that a pretty difficult injury to come back from hitting wise? Didn't Weeks fracture his wrist sliding into a base and didn't it affect his hitting? And Victor Roache as well? I want to be hopeful as well just not sure how to think abouthim coming back from that wrist.

[sveumrules]

Bill/Brian interviewed Keon between innings during the ST game against the Royals and he said despite the recovery/rehab taking longer than expected that his wrist feels 100% now.

[MoreTrife]

Bill/Brian interviewed Keon between innings during the ST game against the Royals and he said despite the recovery/rehab taking longer than expected that his wrist feels 100% now.

 

Cool. hope that's the case.

[Ennder]

If those were the only 6 pitchers they had, I'd agree that they'd be terrible. But they have options. If you have 10 pitchers who have a 10% chance of being a good pitcher, its likely at least one will be a good pitcher. The best 2 pitchers last season weren't on the opening day roster. Could happen again.

Also; somehow, pretty much those 6 guys produced a sub 4 era and the 12th highest WAR in baseball in the 2nd half last season.

 

As for Santana, Im not ready to conclude "he is a very average player". May end up that, may end up less than that. But he is only 24 and did hit 122 wRC+ in the second half. Though I agree with the overall point that they will find a spot somewhere when Brinson is ready.

 

 

It is probably too early to bring up the young starters and the reality is most young starters struggle at least most of their first season unless they are super ace type pitchers. The pitching on this team is going to hold them back this year. Stick a league average rotation on this offense and we can talk playoffs as a possibility. Even if a lot of the offense might not be the long term solutions they have talent all over it.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Ennder,

 

Why dont you think we will have a league average rotation? Brewers pitching staff last year was slightly better than league average (4.08 ERA vs. 4.11 league avr). It was the offense that was well below average. Do you expect a dramatic change in that this year? I dont see it, maybe even a slight improvement based on what we saw in the second half. Its the offense that concerns me.

[wallus]

I am not a fan of Santana's defense and wish they would have converted him to a 1st baseman.

[trwi7]

Why dont you think we will have a league average rotation?

 

The starters were 17th in ERA, 24th in FIP, 24th in xFIP, 20th in WAR, 28th in K/BB. There's not a single thing they were even average in last year.

[Ennder]

Why dont you think we will have a league average rotation?

 

The starters were 17th in ERA, 24th in FIP, 24th in xFIP, 20th in WAR, 28th in K/BB. There's not a single thing they were even average in last year.

 

 

And I don't think those FIP and xFIP numbers are the outliers. A number of pitchers had better ERA's than their actually peripherals suggested they should have. I also think the bullpen will be worse this year than last year.

[And That]

Why dont you think we will have a league average rotation?

 

The starters were 17th in ERA, 24th in FIP, 24th in xFIP, 20th in WAR, 28th in K/BB. There's not a single thing they were even average in last year.

The problem with that analysis is that those metrics have the following year-to-year correlations:

 

ERA: 0.38

FIP: 0.59

xFIP: 0.68

WAR: 0.61

K/BB: 0.63

 

So performances within those metrics from one year to the next don't correlate particularly well. The same group of pitchers could perform quite differently from year x to year y.

 

GB% has a better correlation, at 0.85. Brewers starters were above average at producing ground balls, and with improved infield defense this year that should bode well. On the other hand, Swinging Strike %, has a 0.81 correlation and the Brewers starters produced the lowest swinging strike rate in baseball last year.

 

Also, technically "17th in ERA" doesn't say anything about being above average or below average, it just means they were 17th out of 30. The arithmetic mean could lie around the 13th best team, or the 19th best team.

 

FWIW, Fangraphs has the Brewers starters at about 2.5-3 wins below MLB median this coming season.

[ZBTMP]

If those were the only 6 pitchers they had, I'd agree that they'd be terrible. But they have options. If you have 10 pitchers who have a 10% chance of being a good pitcher, its likely at least one will be a good pitcher. The best 2 pitchers last season weren't on the opening day roster. Could happen again.

Also; somehow, pretty much those 6 guys produced a sub 4 era and the 12th highest WAR in baseball in the 2nd half last season.

 

As for Santana, Im not ready to conclude "he is a very average player". May end up that, may end up less than that. But he is only 24 and did hit 122 wRC+ in the second half. Though I agree with the overall point that they will find a spot somewhere when Brinson is ready.

 

 

It is probably too early to bring up the young starters and the reality is most young starters struggle at least most of their first season unless they are super ace type pitchers. The pitching on this team is going to hold them back this year. Stick a league average rotation on this offense and we can talk playoffs as a possibility. Even if a lot of the offense might not be the long term solutions they have talent all over it.

 

Not sure I agree that most starter struggle initially beyond stepping up to a more challenging lever. Sure performance is volatile, but for every Dana Eveland that comes up and gets shellacked; there is a Taylor Jungmann who big league hitters inexplicably cannot figure out for a dozen starts.

Which starter is too early? We have limited developmental options with a AAA team at 6,000 feet Luis Ortiz, sure. Woodruff is 24. Do we really need to wait to his 25th birthday if he repeats or builds off of last season? Even if you wait ‘til after the expected super 2 cutoff, its not unreasonable that Hader could get 17 starts/100 innings. If Jorge Lopez continues ~3:1 K:BBs at AA to start the year, you really want to send him back to AAA over giving him a shot at some role in Milwaukee.

Even the Brewers fringe types, who have non-zero chances of going on a productive run. I like Wilkerson more than most. Barbosa does a lot of nifty things. Milone, while more track record of inconsistency and mediocrity than fringe, has a past ~3 win season to his name. Maybe Jungmann re-finds his velocity and enough command in the bullpen that he makes a successful couple start run.

There is likely scenarios where we suck, granted; but Im not ready to call it a certainty.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I like the Brewers depth at rotation including in the high minors. If there are injuries or under performance we have a lot of options, which will mitigate rotation poor performance. This is why I don't think the rotation will be that bad and will likely be around league average (however you want to define that) or slightly under.

 

As for the offense, I like the Brewers OFs and they have a ton of depth if Santana or Broxton under perform, but there is little high-upside options at the other positions. If Shaw performs poorly we can use Perez but I'm not expecting huge upside there. They wont be able to replace Lucroy's bat at C. Thames is the real wildcard. With a 3yr contract they will give him a long leash and we have no top prospect who could replace him. I'm hopeful on Thames, but if he flops I think we have a black hole in the lineup at 1b.

[homer]

Watching the game today and Broxton and Villar could end up being one of the more dynamic 1-2 punches in the league.

[Eye Black]

I just saw Adam McCalvy's ARTICLE on Broxton's mechanical tweak lowering his hands. Last month I watched some of Eric Davis hitting highlights (Eric Davis' swing/power still fascinates me) and had this exact same thought about how notably low Davis' hands were loaded pre-swing. I honestly (realizing no one is going to believe me now) had intented to post about some similarity to Broxton's low hands (and frame) earlier. The pictures from the article shows the similarity well...

 

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/assets/images/7/6/8/217862768/cuts/batters_vgmkd3wz_z5q303lr.jpg

 

One other link between the two from the article, Sky Sox manager Rick Sweet was with the Reds organization during Davis' playing days.