Broxton article

[markedman5]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-keon-broxton-looks-like-the-brewers-best-player/

[billymac]

Very excited to see how he performs this year. Didn't realize his exit velocity was that high, in the elite levels...

[JohnBriggs12]

An article such as this is why I don't understand there not being a little more short term optimism about this team. There's simply too many unknowns at this point for Brewers to simply be completely written off in 2017. What if Broxton becomes a star? What about Thames or Shaw or Santana or Arcia? Isn't it possible that any of these guys could break out as Villar did in 2016? Can Guerra be an ace? Aren't there plenty of viable major league arms competing for rotation spots?

[StearnsFTW]

Kinda reminds me of prime Devon White, maybe with more power.

 

Lots of strikeouts, elite defense, very good speed.

[sveumrules]

An article such as this is why I don't understand there not being a little more short term optimism about this team.

 

I think the lack of short term optimism is mostly due to the sheer quantity of "ifs" this team has.

 

On offense: IF Villar can repeat last year, IF Arcia can build on the progress he showed at the plate as the year went on, IF Shaw can get back to being a league average regular, IF Santana can stay healthy & put it all together, IF the gains Broxton made in the 2nd half are for real, IF Braun can stay healthy and ward off aging, IF Thames KBO production carries over...

 

On the mound: IF Guerra can pitch a full season at the same level he did last year, IF Davies can repeat or build upon his performance, IF Nelson/Peralta can get back to pitching like league averagish starters for a whole season, IF Hader can come up at some point & make an impact, IF the bullpen can overcome the losses of Jeffress/Smith/Thornburg...

 

With that many "ifs" some are bound to break good and others to break bad. There are pretty sizable error bars around all team projections but the Brewers are that much bigger given their sheer quantity of young players with limited track records of success.

[Bombers]

I agree Svuem - lots of iffs will temper the excitement. Not a whole lot of proven track record on this team.

[MKE81]

Agree with the above. Additionally, I don't think people are writing off this team being competitive, generally speaking, rather strictly in terms of being playoff contenders. This won't happen even if the rotation gets back to their potential. Cubs will win around 100. Nationals, Dodgers, Giants should all make the playoffs. Then you have the Mets, Cardinals. If everything stayed equal we'd have to win an additional 15 games to steal a wild card spot.

 

I'm not shocked to hear good articles about Santana or Broxton having elite exit speed as well as what their potential is. I've long been a huge Santana supporter, and defender, on here. I firmly stated Broxton will carry over his 2nd half moving forward as lowering the bat was a game changer for him allowing greater, and more consistent, power. His confidence was glowing, his body language was that of a season vet instead of a scared, timid MLB debut player when he started the season. The key to both of their success is health.

[NievesNoNO]

An article such as this is why I don't understand there not being a little more short term optimism about this team. There's simply too many unknowns at this point for Brewers to simply be completely written off in 2017. What if Broxton becomes a star? What about Thames or Shaw or Santana or Arcia? Isn't it possible that any of these guys could break out as Villar did in 2016? Can Guerra be an ace? Aren't there plenty of viable major league arms competing for rotation spots?

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic for this season. Maybe not playoff contender optimistic but I think they can challenge for a .500ish record and be a tough game for any team with their athleticism on the bases and on defense. They really do have the potential for an above average offense if Braun is still on the roster, Villar and Broxton continue where they left off, Santana starts hitting fly balls, and Thames comes close to his new projection, etc. They just don't have the pitching to really turn the corner yet.

 

Even in a smallish sample, you can't fake exit velocity. That's real and elite. I'm optimistic about Broxton continuing his progression and becoming a really nice player. There's still too much swing and miss in his game but even if he can maintain 80% of what he achieved last year, that's a nice player.

[LouisEly]

What this says to me is that players don't have to be consensus top 100 prospects in order to have a high ceiling.

 

And while Rogers was drafted by the Brewers, there is no harm in signing a veteran on a one or two year deal to fill a hole - provided he isn't blocking a top prospect from getting experience - with the hope that he can be flipped at the deadline in a minor deal because minor deals can have big rewards. I'm not advocating spending big in free agency, but a guy like Neftali Feliz could bring back the next Keon Broxton.

[Jenkins5]

What this says to me is that players don't have to be consensus top 100 prospects in order to have a high ceiling.

 

And while Rogers was drafted by the Brewers, there is no harm in signing a veteran on a one or two year deal to fill a hole - provided he isn't blocking a top prospect from getting experience - with the hope that he can be flipped at the deadline in a minor deal because minor deals can have big rewards. I'm not advocating spending big in free agency, but a guy like Neftali Feliz could bring back the next Keon Broxton.

 

Feliz is only 28, if his deal is 2 years as I believe it is, he is a guy who could bring back something pretty nice with what the relief market is. Guy has a huge arm.... if he can get back to his promising & dominate ways, he is a great flip for this team. We need Texas Feliz back.

 

Fangraphs has been raving about Santana & Broxton! It is great to see! They have elite exit velocity, both have outstanding understanding how the zone.... as long as they put ball in play consistently, they could have monster seasons! Braun, Braxton, Santana becomes extremely danagerous OF bats

 

The biggest thing is all the ifs. Thames & Shaw, what do we have in them? Arcia, is he who we hoped he'd be? Villar & Perez, can they repeat? If they all hit maybe we are a 50/50 depending on pitching

[FVBrewerFan]

Brewers were 73-89 last year. It's January, who am I to tell anyone not be optimistic? Go for it! Even losing Lucroy, I could buy into the offense being as good as last season. Who knows, maybe even better.

 

But swap out Jeffress, Thornburg, and Smith for Feliz, Knebel and whoever? You start to lose me. Now convince me there's any possible way this rotation can take this team above .500.

 

Like last year, I will enjoy the process. Villar,Broxton emerged and I hope they keep it up. Will be fun to see if Arcia and Santana develop. Maybe Brinson. The young catchers, and our Korean import. Maybe Hader and Lopez. That's why I'm optimistic, plenty of talent to watch develop.

[pete]

You're also swapping out Presley, a ton of at bats by the LH OF I can't remember his name and the rule V guy I can't remember his name (dang, I wish he had hit some). There are other things that didn't go well and there were a bunch of young guys getting their first regular playing time in the majors. I think they'll be surprisingly competitive.

 

But don't get me wrong. I hope they trade about 8 players between now and the trade deadline and get a top 5 pick. I'm still really excited to see the team this season.

 

Edit: and oh yeah, Thames! The potential for entertainment is big.

[FVBrewerFan]

You're also swapping out Presley, a ton of at bats by the LH OF I can't remember his name and the rule V guy I can't remember his name (dang, I wish he had hit some). There are other things that didn't go well and there were a bunch of young guys getting their first regular playing time in the majors. I think they'll be surprisingly competitive.

 

Flores, Walsh, Elmore, Walsh, etc. Roughly 900 PA by guys like that (I did include Maldy.) That's basically 200 games played by guys with sub .700 OPS!

 

*That's not even including Kirk N, who barely broke the .700 barrier, plus he's still on the roster. Although, hopefully, he won't get anywhere near as many ABs this year.

[reillymcshane]

 

Flores, Walsh, Elmore, Walsh, etc. Roughly 900 PA by guys like that (I did include Maldy.) That's basically 200 games played by guys with sub .700 OPS!

 

This is part of the process of simply giving guys a chance. Villar, Perez, Broxton, Pina, Guerra, etc. - good so far. Other guys were mediocre or outright awful. The nice thing is that we found quite a few keepers from the bargain bin. That's part of building the team into a winner. Of course, that means hundreds of ABs from Flores and Walsh and guys like that. But that's life. You don't win them all.

 

I think we'll have a lot more of that this year - not as much - but still a lot of it.

[brewerfan82]

 

Flores, Walsh, Elmore, Walsh, etc. Roughly 900 PA by guys like that (I did include Maldy.) That's basically 200 games played by guys with sub .700 OPS!

 

This is part of the process of simply giving guys a chance. Villar, Perez, Broxton, Pina, Guerra, etc. - good so far. Other guys were mediocre or outright awful. The nice thing is that we found quite a few keepers from the bargain bin. That's part of building the team into a winner. Of course, that means hundreds of ABs from Flores and Walsh and guys like that. But that's life. You don't win them all.

 

I think we'll have a lot more of that this year - not as much - but still a lot of it.

It's likely we'll actually see more sub .700 at bats this year than last. I checked the past ten years, last year we had 1,307 at bats by players with sub .700 OPS. That was actually the fewest in that entire span. We average 1,756 at bats by sub .700 OPS players each year, including an incredible 2,538 at bats in 2015 alone. Even in our playoff seasons of '11 and '08 we had 2,071 at bats and 1,692 at bats respectively by players with sub .700 OPS.

 

It's easy to think that's a pretty low threshold and not expect new players to hit that low or for returning players not to repeat, but it apparently happens every year and a lot.

[liveforoctober]

 

Flores, Walsh, Elmore, Walsh, etc. Roughly 900 PA by guys like that (I did include Maldy.) That's basically 200 games played by guys with sub .700 OPS!

 

This is part of the process of simply giving guys a chance. Villar, Perez, Broxton, Pina, Guerra, etc. - good so far. Other guys were mediocre or outright awful. The nice thing is that we found quite a few keepers from the bargain bin. That's part of building the team into a winner. Of course, that means hundreds of ABs from Flores and Walsh and guys like that. But that's life. You don't win them all.

 

I think we'll have a lot more of that this year - not as much - but still a lot of it.

It's likely we'll actually see more sub .700 at bats this year than last. I checked the past ten years, last year we had 1,307 at bats by players with sub .700 OPS. That was actually the fewest in that entire span. We average 1,756 at bats by sub .700 OPS players each year, including an incredible 2,538 at bats in 2015 alone. Even in our playoff seasons of '11 and '08 we had 2,071 at bats and 1,692 at bats respectively by players with sub .700 OPS.

 

It's easy to think that's a pretty low threshold and not expect new players to hit that low or for returning players not to repeat, but it apparently happens every year and a lot.

 

Yunnnniiiiiiiiii!!!

 

Sorry, anytime I get to mention his name I'm jumping on it.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

Flores, Walsh, Elmore, Walsh, etc. Roughly 900 PA by guys like that (I did include Maldy.) That's basically 200 games played by guys with sub .700 OPS!

 

This is part of the process of simply giving guys a chance. Villar, Perez, Broxton, Pina, Guerra, etc. - good so far. Other guys were mediocre or outright awful. The nice thing is that we found quite a few keepers from the bargain bin. That's part of building the team into a winner. Of course, that means hundreds of ABs from Flores and Walsh and guys like that. But that's life. You don't win them all.

 

I think we'll have a lot more of that this year - not as much - but still a lot of it.

 

Oh, don't get me wrong I get they needed to kick the tires on a lot of guys. I don't expect nearly as much of that this year.

 

If Arcia is above .700 it will be tough for them to have 1,000+ ABs by sub .700 hitters. Although MrAllen shows it's entirely possible I guess. Tough to fight history.

[brewerfan82]

It's likely we'll actually see more sub .700 at bats this year than last. I checked the past ten years, last year we had 1,307 at bats by players with sub .700 OPS. That was actually the fewest in that entire span. We average 1,756 at bats by sub .700 OPS players each year, including an incredible 2,538 at bats in 2015 alone. Even in our playoff seasons of '11 and '08 we had 2,071 at bats and 1,692 at bats respectively by players with sub .700 OPS.

 

It's easy to think that's a pretty low threshold and not expect new players to hit that low or for returning players not to repeat, but it apparently happens every year and a lot.

 

Yunnnniiiiiiiiii!!!

 

Sorry, anytime I get to mention his name I'm jumping on it.

Haha, good call. Even without his 556 ABs in 2011, that team still had about 1,500 ABs from other sub .700 OPS players. Craziness.

[brewerfan82]

If Arcia is above .700 it will be tough for them to have 1,000+ ABs by sub .700 hitters. Although MrAllen shows it's entirely possible I guess. Tough to fight history.

Of the four highest OPS teams in baseball last year only Boston had fewer than 1,100 ABs by sub .700 hitters (BOS with 577 ABs, COL with 1,247 ABS, CHC with 1,106 ABs, and DET with 1,874 ABs). So it's possible, I just think it's very unlikely. Maybe this shows that a .700 OPS threshold isn't low enough to draw many conclusions from. Each team has about 5,500 ABs in a season, so we're only talking about 20% of a teams ABs, how the other 80% breaks down is probably more informative of a team's total offense. Anyways, not trying to be combative, just curious and found it interesting to dig into a little

[CheezWizHed]

Yunnnniiiiiiiiii!!!

 

Sorry, anytime I get to mention his name I'm jumping on it.

 

[sarcasm]Please refer to the list of banned words policy and stop violating it.[/sarcasm]

[FVBrewerFan]

If Arcia is above .700 it will be tough for them to have 1,000+ ABs by sub .700 hitters. Although MrAllen shows it's entirely possible I guess. Tough to fight history.

Of the four highest OPS teams in baseball last year only Boston had fewer than 1,100 ABs by sub .700 hitters (BOS with 577 ABs, COL with 1,247 ABS, CHC with 1,106 ABs, and DET with 1,874 ABs). So it's possible, I just think it's very unlikely. Maybe this shows that a .700 OPS threshold isn't low enough to draw many conclusions from. Each team has about 5,500 ABs in a season, so we're only talking about 20% of a teams ABs, how the other 80% breaks down is probably more informative of a team's total offense. Anyways, not trying to be combative, just curious and found it interesting to dig into a little

 

Oh, no, I didn't take it that way at all. Quite the opposite, really good information here.

[danzig6767]

Brewers were 73-89 last year. It's January, who am I to tell anyone not be optimistic? Go for it! Even losing Lucroy, I could buy into the offense being as good as last season. Who knows, maybe even better.

 

But swap out Jeffress, Thornburg, and Smith for Feliz, Knebel and whoever? You start to lose me. Now convince me there's any possible way this rotation can take this team above .500.

 

Like last year, I will enjoy the process. Villar,Broxton emerged and I hope they keep it up. Will be fun to see if Arcia and Santana develop. Maybe Brinson. The young catchers, and our Korean import. Maybe Hader and Lopez. That's why I'm optimistic, plenty of talent to watch develop.

Yea i'm excited to see how the lineup and defense ends up performing. Both have the chance at least to be better than many expect.

 

It's the pitching though where things could be pretty ugly, especially the rotation. The bullpen is much harder to guess on because from year to year some guys do better or worse than you'd expect for many teams who lack proven arms in the pen.

[RobDeer 45]

Brewers were 73-89 last year. It's January, who am I to tell anyone not be optimistic? Go for it! Even losing Lucroy, I could buy into the offense being as good as last season. Who knows, maybe even better.

 

But swap out Jeffress, Thornburg, and Smith for Feliz, Knebel and whoever? You start to lose me. Now convince me there's any possible way this rotation can take this team above .500.

 

Like last year, I will enjoy the process. Villar,Broxton emerged and I hope they keep it up. Will be fun to see if Arcia and Santana develop. Maybe Brinson. The young catchers, and our Korean import. Maybe Hader and Lopez. That's why I'm optimistic, plenty of talent to watch develop.

Yea i'm excited to see how the lineup and defense ends up performing. Both have the chance at least to be better than many expect.

 

It's the pitching though where things could be pretty ugly, especially the rotation. The bullpen is much harder to guess on because from year to year some guys do better or worse than you'd expect for many teams who lack proven arms in the pen.

 

I think this is the way I feel right now. Excited to see how our defense and bats play out. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, but I'm hoping to see promise is some of the young players. On the other hand, I'm really worried about our rotation. I just don't see them being very good.

[adambr2]

Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report calls Keon Broxton the biggest emerging MLB star centerfielder. Pretty high praise with the company he's in.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2694833-the-biggest-emerging-mlb-star-at-every-position-entering-2017

[MillerParkSouth]

Jason Rogers for Keon Broxton and Trey Supak. What a trade.