Travis Shaw Projection

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

This could be Shaw's break out year. Is .260, 25 HR's and 85 RBI a pipe dream? I have a good feeling about "The Mayor of Ding Dong City." If Santana can produce similar results and Braun stays it could be a decent 3, 4 and 5 in the batting order.

[sveumrules]

I don't think it's a pipe dream, necessarily. From Shaw's debut in 2015 thru the 2016 All Star Break he hit 269/330/469 (109 wRC+) with 22 HR & 84 RBI in 585 plate appearances so he's done it once already.

 

The only problem is that the second half of 2016 (194/259/360 59 wRC+) also happened & more recently. Hopefully Shaw is an adjustment or two & some consistent playing time away from getting back to the hitter he started his MLB career as.

[MadScientist]

280 and 35HR would be a pipe dream, yours is more of an optimistic fan dream. This is the time of year for those. And yes, the Brewers' lineup has the potential to be solid this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

I see .255 and 18 hr and him sitting vs. lefties. He's not a 3, 4 or 5 hitter.

 

Thames will hit cleanup. Shaw will hit 6th.

[pete]

Has Shaw talked about his terrible 2nd half in any of the interviews? I know I heard an earlier one but can't recall.

[reillymcshane]

If Shaw hits .260 with 15 HR and plays good defense (which he has in the past) - it's a great season for the guy. Could he hit 25 HR? Sure. But I also think he's the kind of guy who could just tank. It will be interesting to actually see him in action this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

I see .255 and 18 hr and him sitting vs. lefties. He's not a 3, 4 or 5 hitter.

 

Thames will hit cleanup. Shaw will hit 6th.

 

Yeah no chance Shaw hits higher than 6th. Broxton, Villar, Braun, Thames or Santana, Santana or Thames. Maybe only when a couple of these guys are out of the lineup.

[MKE81]

Shaw is averaging 21HR per 500 AB while playing half his games in one of the worst parks for left handed power. And still managed to have equal home/away HR splits. The power is real and I think he's for sure in the 20-25HR area with the potential to hit a few more posting a slash line more in line to his 2015. He's also not sitting vs lefties. He was terrible last year vs lefties but absolutely destroyed them 2yrs ago. The ability is there. Shaw will bat 6 as Thames is a better overall hitter and is more patient with better bat to ball skills. When guys have a day off he can easily slide into the 4-5 hole for a game here and there. He's also going to play good defense at 3b.

[danzig6767]

Shaw is averaging 21HR per 500 AB while playing half his games in one of the worst parks for left handed power. And still managed to have equal home/away HR splits. The power is real and I think he's for sure in the 20-25HR area with the potential to hit a few more posting a slash line more in line to his 2015. He's also not sitting vs lefties.

Yes he will sit often vs lefties unless he hits them early on. That's precisely where Perez will get many of his at bats unless an injury on the infield forces Perez into a starting role elsewhere.

 

Arcia and Villar are going to play pretty much everyday assuming good health. Same for Thames. Counsell isn't going to have Perez locked to the bench and thirdbase is his best position. So unless Shaw hits lefties so well that it forces Counsell to play him everyday, i see it ending up being a soft to strict platoon at third.

[brewerfan82]

I'd say there's a pretty good chance Perez will get starts at 3rd against lefties, but it has more to do with "cuz he's a righty and Shaw's a lefty" than with anything they've "proven" at the big league level so far.

 

Neither player has a huge sample size to draw from, but in their careers against lefties you've got:

 

[pre]vs. Lefties AB HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

Shaw 189 10 8 50 .249 .285 .476 .761

Perez 280 7 8 66 .254 .270 .421 .691[/pre]

 

It's certainly a spot to get Perez some atbats throughout the season, but I think it's a bit premature to hold Shaw to a strict platoon at this point.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd say there's a pretty good chance Perez will get starts at 3rd against lefties, but it has more to do with "cuz he's a righty and Shaw's a lefty" than with anything they've "proven" at the big league level so far.

 

Neither player has a huge sample size to draw from, but in their careers against lefties you've got:

 

[pre]vs. Lefties AB HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

Shaw 189 10 8 50 .249 .285 .476 .761

Perez 280 7 8 66 .254 .270 .421 .691[/pre]

 

It's certainly a spot to get Perez some atbats throughout the season, but I think it's a bit premature to hold Shaw to a strict platoon at this point.

 

[sarcasm]Forget the statistics! That can't be! We need balance in the lineup! Everyone knows that righties hit lefties better than lefties on lefties![/sarcasm]

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

As a reminder, Thames played in Korea last season. Korea is not AAA. Hope Thames is average but I am not sold on it happening.

[And That]

Relatively small sample, but Shaw hit LHP a lot better than RHP in 2015. His career OPS vs. RHP is still .010 lower than vs. LHP. I'd like to think that the analytically-driven Brewers would be above the "he's left handed so he shouldn't play against lefties" stigma. But maybe not.

[MKE81]

Shaw is averaging 21HR per 500 AB while playing half his games in one of the worst parks for left handed power. And still managed to have equal home/away HR splits. The power is real and I think he's for sure in the 20-25HR area with the potential to hit a few more posting a slash line more in line to his 2015. He's also not sitting vs lefties.

Yes he will sit often vs lefties unless he hits them early on. That's precisely where Perez will get many of his at bats unless an injury on the infield forces Perez into a starting role elsewhere.

 

Arcia and Villar are going to play pretty much everyday assuming good health. Same for Thames. Counsell isn't going to have Perez locked to the bench and thirdbase is his best position. So unless Shaw hits lefties so well that it forces Counsell to play him everyday, i see it ending up being a soft to strict platoon at third.

Early on? So Shaw has a short leash? Perez is a backup. He fills in for injuries, days off and trades. If everyone is healthy and not falling on their face for an extended period of time then he's not playing. It's that simple. You don't take ABs away from more talented players because your super utility is good at being versatile. 3b isn't Perez's best position either - it's just the position that allowed him to play more games because Segura/Villar + Scooter occupied the middle spots and Aramis/Hill were traded at the break opening a spot for him.

 

Stearns traded Thornburg for a MLB starting 3b, not a platoon player. Shaw has slashed 279/337/889 vs LH Starters (far superior to Perez). Even though he struggled last year vs them he's clearly had success, which means his ability to repeat is there. There are plenty of people who aren't high on Shaw in general and a lot of people point to his collapse the final 2 months as being troubling. Yet these same people love the production from Perez last year. So explain how that's the case when Shaw's wRC+ and wOBA were 2pts below Perez with his ISO 23pts higher, walk rate was twice as good and his WAR was .3 better? Shaw's 2015 destroys Perez last year. Shaw is better. There is no platoon. Perez will certainly get some time at 3b but make no mistake about it that's Shaw's position

[MKE81]

I'd say there's a pretty good chance Perez will get starts at 3rd against lefties, but it has more to do with "cuz he's a righty and Shaw's a lefty" than with anything they've "proven" at the big league level so far.

 

Neither player has a huge sample size to draw from, but in their careers against lefties you've got:

 

[pre]vs. Lefties AB HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

Shaw 189 10 8 50 .249 .285 .476 .761

Perez 280 7 8 66 .254 .270 .421 .691[/pre]

 

It's certainly a spot to get Perez some atbats throughout the season, but I think it's a bit premature to hold Shaw to a strict platoon at this point.

I prefer to look at what they do VS Starters as opposed to VS Lefties overall given the vast, vast majority of ABs are against starters where he get a chance to see them multiple times. Mostly everyone does worse against pen arms regardless of who they face and which side of the plate they're on

[JosephC]

I feel pretty confident that Shaw will have enough pop in his bat to stick in the lineup if he gets on base enough. OBP seems to be the biggest question mark. I'd guess he'll slash something like .240/.310/.440. If that OBP dips too far below that he won't stick as a regular. If he gets it above .320 he'll probably be in there most everyday. If he does a good job hitting righties, the Brewers could keep him in there against lefties even if he's struggling for experience purposes. Maybe the most intriguing aspect of this team are the corner infielders.

[djoctagone]

the mayor of ding dong city has certainly exceeded the expectations stated in this thread.

[Outlander]

Has struggled quite a bit in August but yes has exceeded pretty much everybody's expectations and is a heck of a lot more fun than a player not meeting expectations. Also like how he has started over 80% of the Brewers games at cleanup.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

280 and 35HR would be a pipe dream, yours is more of an optimistic fan dream. This is the time of year for those. And yes, the Brewers' lineup has the potential to be solid this year.

 

I would say this is actually a pretty good bet. If he gets hot again before the end of the season, .300, 40 HRs and 110 RBIs isn't out of the question. Even if he doesn't, I imagine he'll pop another 8 HRs before the end of the year. I think it's safe to say that Shaw has been the team's MVP this year. And while Arcia and Santana have been good as well, it's not even really that close.

[MrTPlush]

Haha this thread is why I love baseball. You go Shaw.

[MilwaukeesBest]

Haha this thread is why I love baseball. You go Shaw.

 

+1. Also gives us reason sometimes to back down from our hard-headedness. Lol.

[rcc]

.285 average 27 homers 81 RBIs for Travis as the cleanup hitter on Aug. 23. I would say he has beaten a lot of projections.

[Ennder]

For what it is worth his xStats are .282 AVG, 22 HR, .867 xOPS.

 

That is mostly park neutralized so Miller Park is probably adding a few HR and a little OPS. It looks largely legit, not a lot of luck involved here.

[Pugger]

I just hope we resign him this offseason.

[JackNicholson1974]

I just hope we resign him this offseason.

 

Why wouldnt they resign him? He isn't even eligible for Free Agency until after 2021. I can't imagine they would non tender him.