Neftali Feliz - Because Random Tweets Have Come Through This Offseason

[yfinn6]

Why is the assumption that developing a closer in the form of Knebel/Barnes/Peralta/Lopez/etc would lead to an immediate trade of said closer? The Brewers should begin developing relievers to contend, not to trade away. (Maybe with the exception of Peralta/Torres given their control remaining.)

 

Any innings Feliz pitches takes away higher leverage opportunities from guys who still might be here in a year or two.

 

There are going to be plenty of opportunities for guys who will be here in a year or two. Relatively speaking, $6MM in 2017 for a pitcher who could rebound and net us some more talent is really a drop in the bucket. Yes, the Brewers don't have unlimited funds, but this signing doesn't prevent them from signing other players or getting younger pitchers high-leverage innings. Your argument seems to be switching between "it's a money issue" to "it's a playing time issue", which makes me wonder if there is some other reason you just don't want to see the Brewers sign Feliz. I'm trying to see the negatives to it, but there just aren't any that are glaring (to me). If he stinks then we're out $6MM in a non-contending season; the Brewers have spent way more money in way worse ways in seasons that they thought they should contend.

[MKE81]

Basically, I'd rather they focus on spending money on guys that could be around for when the club is contending, like Hwang or a creative deal with a Henderson Alvarez or Nate Eovaldi. Spending money on a guy to try to turn into another guy who might be around seems like a wasted step.

Eovaldi had a pretty big spike in HR rate last year too, which is probably why the Yankees released him. He throws hard, but that's about it - career K rate of 6.6/9. Might be worth seeing if he can pick up a couple of mph moving into the pen - if he can get to 98/99 out of the pen that would get interesting.

 

Looks like he tried picking up a split-finger fastball last year as fangraphs has him throwing that pitch 22% of the time but not previously in his career. Maybe that's what wasn't working for him. Bullpen with fastball/slider would be intriguing; maybe Guerra can show him how to throw the splitter better.

Eovaldi and the other pitcher I referenced, Henderson Alvarez, are both coming off of injury and I wouldn't sign either unless it was a multi-year deal. Eovaldi actually might not pitch in 2017 at all. Again, I'm looking for what might help the Brewers when they are ready to contend, not who will accumulate counting stats in a non-contending year.

The Brewers first year for realistically contending would be 2019 if the rookies at that time perform rather solidly. But the players you're naming make ZERO sense. Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Davies, etc etc. The guys you're mentioning have been hit every single year. They give up more hits than IP and their K/9 aren't impressive. And they've had arm injuries on top of not producing. Why would you target that profile for our contending years...

[Bnowell4evr]

One big reason that I like signing a free agent to be our closer is that it will keep our in house relievers arbitration costs down going forward. I personally don't see any difference between pitching in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning. As long as it's a high leverage situation and they perform whats the problem? I like using your best relievers like the Indians did with Andrew Miller instead of being pidgeon-holed into having him pitch the 9th inning.

 

Corey Knebel and Jacob Barnes will be an important part of this team and might even end up closing games in August and September. They have PLENTY of time to develop into core members of this team going forward.

 

Another bonus is that Neftali Feliz will only be 29 next year. This is a player in his prime of his career and is starting to get healthy again. His upside is tremendous and David Stearns has already proven he can turn water into wine being apart of the Jose Veras for David Paulino trade.

[Brew Kricket]

Why is the assumption that developing a closer in the form of Knebel/Barnes/Peralta/Lopez/etc would lead to an immediate trade of said closer? The Brewers should begin developing relievers to contend, not to trade away. (Maybe with the exception of Peralta/Torres given their control remaining.)

 

Any innings Feliz pitches takes away higher leverage opportunities from guys who still might be here in a year or two.

 

I do not believe it necessarily would lead to a trade of the new closer, but it would lead to a noticeable bump in salary in the arbitration process for potentially 3 years (or 2 for Peralta) due to the arbitration process valuing saves like it does. The 4 million being paid to Feliz will be offset by suppressing the salary of any potential new closer we wish to develop, thus neutralizing the minimal downside of the salary.

If we put Chris Paddack level return as a reasonable expetation (50 fv prospect averages .5 surplus WAR over controllable contract thus averaging approximately 4 million in value), with 20% potential outcome of one 55/60 fv prospect or two 50 fv prospects, and worst case of 30% chance Feliz struggles, and is not movable at the deadline, I do this signing in a second. It is worth the risk to me. I also am not considering the experience for a younger reliever getting save opportunities in '17 as adding much to their ability in '19 or '20. To me, this is minimal. Their will be plenty of high leverage situations for the younger relievers this season, even with Feliz.

 

Again, I would value Paddock return as a 50 fv prospect with helium looking to be 55 by seasons end. Also, the chance exists that we are competitive this year at the deadline, and want to keep Feliz for the stretch run, but I do not think that is reasonably considered "the plan" for this year.

[adambr2]

 

Jeffress basically netted Ryan Cordell.

 

If you're suggesting that Lucroy alone would have netted Brinson and Ortiz I would have to disagree. Stearns has a stated preference not to package guys except when absolutely necessary. If we hypothetically had 2 offers from Texas, Option A being Lucroy for Brinson and Ortiz and Option B being Jeffress for Cordell, I'd be willing to bet the house that we would have taken Option A and declined B without hesitation. Jeffress was a necessary piece to get what we did.

 

If I had to try to break the trade down in terms of who netted what even though it isn't really possible, I would say that Lucroy for Brinson and Cordell, and Jeffress for Ortiz is a lot closer to where the trade values lined up.

[brewcrewdue80]

About trade and getting a piece. We're getting so deep, I don't care to try getting a mediocre return on Feliz. Think, more like Lucroy in that the inclusion of Feliz nets a real talent....I don't think Brinson or maybe Ortiz is offered back w/o Jeffress.

 

The player that jumps out at you would be Hernan Perez with Feliz.

 

The clearest example on what a trade could be for Feliz alone can be KRod, since we traded him twice. Nick Delmonico 1st, Javier Betancourt/Manny Pina 2nd.

 

I'm not comparing the two pitching styles, just results. I think for a rental, a GM seeks that. They don't care if the FB is 100 or 88.

 

The team lost 3 relievers. Replacing 1 outside the organization, still leaves 2 spots to fill in with inside the organization. And in Feliz, they have a veteran presence with Post Season experience. Who has had big time success as well as failing. So maybe within the bullpen he can bring some calm or reassurance coaches just don't give them.

[And That]

Your argument seems to be switching between "it's a money issue" to "it's a playing time issue", which makes me wonder if there is some other reason you just don't want to see the Brewers sign Feliz.

I'm not really sure what the second part of that sentence means, but it is a value issue. You don't create value by spending as much as or more than what someone is likely worth and taking away opportunity from players who are making less than they are likely worth. If the Brewers were contending, it would be a different story. But they aren't.

 

Again, I don't hate the deal, it's just in my mind more likely than not a meaningless use of a roster spot at this point in the talent cycle. I think signing a guy with spotty command whose only plus pitch is a 2-seam fastball, and lets about 2/3 of balls hit against him into the air, is not a great fit for Miller Park. Maybe Stearns and company have other analytics and scouting that would suggest his slider can be improved, or that the way he pitches will keep fly balls in the park more regularly than he did last year.

 

If the Brewers sign him, I hope he does really well and they get a really great package of prospects in return for him at the deadline. Just dubious that either of those things will happen.

[MKE81]

Nobody ever stated what Feliz's return could be other than both you guys saying Chris Paddack as best case scenario. The same Paddack who will have a plus fastball, plus to plus-plus change, average breaking ball and above average-plus command. Sounds terrible.

And Tommy John surgery. He was a 50 OFP prospect before surgery, maybe teetering into 55, with likely landing spot in the 45-50 range. Now that's all a question mark, and it is possible the Marlins knew about some structural issues before they traded him.

 

The Melancon deal netted the Pirates two 45-ish guys, one who is a reliever and the other who likely will be.

 

Joe Smith netted some random dude.

 

Tyler Clippard netted someone whom the Diamondbacks thought highly enough of to lose on waivers shortly thereafter.

 

Mike Montgomery basically netted Dan Vogelbach, who is a good bat but can't play in the NL.

 

Jeffress basically netted Ryan Cordell.

 

I've seen the term "nice haul" used a handful of times for what the insinuation was the Brewers would be expected to get for signing Feliz. Ignoring the fact that Feliz might not pitch well enough to be traded at all, if the above returns would be considered "nice hauls" - I'm willing to acknowledge the semantic difference and move on.

Yes because nobody is coming back stronger and better after TJ these days. Paddack having a low-mid 90s fastball with a borderline plus-plus change makes him lethal. Nevermind the above average or better command he has or the potential average breaking ball added in the mix. All that apparently makes him below average - average according to you. His numbers in A ball as a 20yr old are outrageous. Anybody would drool over those numbers.

 

2009-2016 Feliz has had one bad year (2015) and the rest have been very good so not sure why you think the possibility of him not pitching well is this very real thing. Every pitcher can have an off-year. But there's nothing in his background to suggest it's a very real possibility he's not good in 2017, especially since he bounced back very well last year and improved his velocity up to 98 as the season went on.

 

Thornburg netted Shaw, Dubon, Pennington. Smith netted Bickford, Susac. And somehow you believe our actual closer (Jeffress) who had the best track record of them all solely netted Cordell. Try again.

 

Melancon netted (2) 45-ish players? Oh my. Rivero is a 25yr old with electric stuff and 5yrs of control. He's already had success at the MLB level having a 2.79 ERA in 48ip as a 23yr old then struggled first half last year before the trade and bounced back with a 3.29 ERA with Pitt and 12.8/9 K ratio. His stuff is legit and he'll be very good. The 2nd piece is a 22yr old who will start in A+ and profiles to a young Rivero (13/9 K rate last year in A).

 

Smith is 4yrs older than Feliz and his WHIP, K rate is worse over career and the 1.5yrs prior to his trade his ERA jumped to 3.5-3.8 with large spike in WHIP and drop in K rate. If Feliz continues pitching the same as last year then how are they similar?

 

Clippard netted Vicente Campos (Top 15 Yankees prospect) who pitched well across 3 levels and made his MLB debut at 23. Why did you leave out the part about him having surgery on his fractured ulnar requiring an 8 month recovery period? I'm sure it had nothing to do with why AZ tried to push him through waivers, right?

 

Montgomery netted Volgelbach, who can't play in the NL except that he can. His range is below average but he fields what he touches - he's not going anywhere with Rizzo anyway. Good thing for him Seattle is in the AL so he has 2 positions now. He was rated just outside the Cubs Top 10 and is the future 1b/DH for Seattle making his MLB debut at the very end of last year. Seattle also netted Blackburn, 1st rd pick in 2012, who's gone level by level every year posting the same numbers as a starter (3.2 ERA). He'll be in AAA as a 23yr old this year.

 

But you're right. All the returns on these trades are "light" and won't make a difference for any team. If you don't want the Brewers to sign Feliz because you don't like him or think there's better options out there, then fine. But your reasoning is illogical and your examples don't make any sense.

[MKE81]

 

Jeffress basically netted Ryan Cordell.

 

If you're suggesting that Lucroy alone would have netted Brinson and Ortiz I would have to disagree. Stearns has a stated preference not to package guys except when absolutely necessary. If we hypothetically had 2 offers from Texas, Option A being Lucroy for Brinson and Ortiz and Option B being Jeffress for Cordell, I'd be willing to bet the house that we would have taken Option A and declined B without hesitation. Jeffress was a necessary piece to get what we did.

 

If I had to try to break the trade down in terms of who netted what even though it isn't really possible, I would say that Lucroy for Brinson and Cordell, and Jeffress for Ortiz is a lot closer to where the trade values lined up.

One could argue Lucroy for Brinson (top 15) and Jeffress for Ortiz and Cordell. Lucroy to Indians brought back 4, which was depth over high quality and none were Top 100 even though Mejia slid in afterwards. Exchange an A ball catcher, 2 quality backups, pen arm for 1 elite 5 tool player who's a Top 15. Smith brought Bickford (ranked right by Ortiz) and Susac (ex-top 100 with MLB experience) and Jeffress has a better track record than Smith and was a closer. Regardless how you want to shake it down, in no way shape or form did Jeffress solely bring Cordell.

[And That]

But you're right.

Thanks!

[MrTPlush]

Maybe the Brewers are going to start keeping relievers for the future and don't feel like making them super expensive in the future due to saves?

[CheeseheadInQC]

In the longshot event they are actually in the race at the deadline, this lessens the pressure to acquire a bullpen piece at that point. Also, if Knebel and Barnes can prove their mettle in high-leverage situations, it probably doesn't hurt their value to not be closing as much as it used to.

[reillymcshane]

I'm in the 'meh' ballpark on this one.

 

First of all, I don't think Feliz is that good - he's a solid guy, but nothing spectacular. To me he's a set up type guy a contender should be getting - not a rebuilding club.

 

Second, I'm happy to give guys we already have a chance to pitch regularly in 2017. I still think this is a year to help figure out who our long term assets are going to be - and that means giving guys playing time.

 

Third, if he pitches good - but not great - I don't think he'd net that much in a mid-season trade.

 

Of course, Stearns and Company might see something special in the guy. If so, by all means, sign him. But I'm not sweating this one out. He's a decent arm and would help the club, but I can see positives to not adding him at this time.

[Oldcity]

Also baffled at the negativity over this. His 14.2 SwStrk% was elite--he misses a lot of bats. We're upset that Knebel/Barnes won't close until July? Thornburg closed for two months and brought back a pretty nice return. That doesn't matter.

 

Knebel/Barnes etc. will be pitching in higher leverage than they ever have in 2017. Feliz will be flipped, hopefully for a decent prospect. This is basically a no risk move.

[monty57]

I think a big part of this potential signing is that the Brewer management doesn't want to take a step back and completely suck this year. I want to see young guys get their shot, but filling an entire bullpen with guys with little experience and little "fanfare" could get brutal. This isn't blocking someone like Brinson or Hader, this is pushing our worst middle reliever back to AAA, while allowing the relievers who do have some talent to get more experience as a setup guy before they get moved to closer when Feliz is likely traded at the deadline.

 

I understand where And That is coming from, as naming someone "closer" is the easiest way to add value to a player, but I think that falling back and losing 95-100 games would not be good for this team, as it would be bad for player confidence, and it would turn fans off of the rebuild. Of course, Feliz himself is not that big of a difference maker, but the combination of getting him (and maybe another vet reliever) along with acquiring MLB players like Shaw and Thames could keep us closer to .500 than 100-losses while not really blocking anyone.

[JohnBriggs12]

To underscore monty57's point, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts responded by correcting a national correspondent who mentioned to him the pain of going through multiple 90 loss seasons saying, "we wish would have had only 90 loss seasons". Dale Sveum was fired after losing 197 games in two seasons. Even rebuilding teams need to maximize their potential or the manager pays the price. As nice as Miller Park is, it doesn't have the museum type attraction that draws a large fan base even when the team is awful. There are limits on what even patient fans will endure and still show up.

[FVBrewerFan]

As nice as Miller Park is, it doesn't have the museum type attraction that draws a large fan base even when the team is awful. There are limits on what even patient fans will endure and still show up.

 

No, but it has the tradition of being a place to be during the summer. County Stadium, and now Miller Park has and always will draw huge crowds from June- August regardless of the record. Throw in some give-away days etc. at other times of the year, and there is definitely a floor in attendance.

 

Back to Feliz, I think part of it is they don't want to put the pressure of closer exclusively on Knebel or especially Barnes to start the year. It would be much better if they grew into that role. Knebel was back and forth last year, and not a very good year overall. Barnes with very limited MLB experience. I don't think it's wide to ask guys like that to be the closer before they're ready.

[Roderick]

I don't have any issue with bringing in a bullpen guy to close. It isn't like a current youngster has earned the spot. Plenty of innings to go around next year to earn the spot for the future.

 

I think all the naysayers are really just hoping to get KRod back to close.

[ilikewisco]

I think a big part of this potential signing is that the Brewer management doesn't want to take a step back and completely suck this year. I want to see young guys get their shot, but filling an entire bullpen with guys with little experience and little "fanfare" could get brutal. This isn't blocking someone like Brinson or Hader, this is pushing our worst middle reliever back to AAA, while allowing the relievers who do have some talent to get more experience as a setup guy before they get moved to closer when Feliz is likely traded at the deadline.

 

I think this is right on the money. There's plenty of room on the payroll and Feliz seems like a guy who can get the job done for a rebuilding team. On a contender I don't think it would make much sense with the question marks around him. But for the Brewers he's a once highly regarded prospect who has had his career derailed by injury. I could see Feliz coming in and putting up stats in line with what Jeffress was able to do last year if healthy. He has the stuff to do it if his velocity is all the way back. The only thing is it would make a lot more sense to sign him to a multi-year deal. I wonder if a team could structure a deal to give the team an opt out after a couple years, if he is pitching well let the contract run to when it's time to compete, if not performing well opt out.

[homer]

To underscore monty57's point, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts responded by correcting a national correspondent who mentioned to him the pain of going through multiple 90 loss seasons saying, "we wish would have had only 90 loss seasons". Dale Sveum was fired after losing 197 games in two seasons. Even rebuilding teams need to maximize their potential or the manager pays the price. As nice as Miller Park is, it doesn't have the museum type attraction that draws a large fan base even when the team is awful. There are limits on what even patient fans will endure and still show up.

 

True, but it is a dome and thus there will always be a game rain or shine. So folks from the outer reaches of the state that like baseball will always have a place to watch it and don;t need to worry about rain outs.

[And That]

I think all the naysayers are really just hoping to get KRod back to close.

Nailed it!

 

And then we can trade him for Delmonico again.

[Austin Tatious]

With or without Feliz, I'm going to predict this bullpen will be poor and will cost us ten extra losses with meltdowns. So, if you look at the offense and some potential bounce backs in the rotation to put you on a 77 win level, you'd fall to 67 wins with bullpen implosions.

 

I probably wouldn't get Feliz myself but I can see the attempt to minimize heinous losses caused by a subpar pen.

 

I think a lineup of:

 

2b Villar

Cf Broxton

Lf Braun

1b Thames

Rf Santiago

3b Shaw/Perez

SS Arcia

C Susac/Bandy

 

With a rotation of Guerra, Davies, Garza, Peralta, Nelson

 

That's 77-81 win talent if things go well. But the bullpen blows ten from there.

[And That]

Also baffled at the negativity over this. His 14.2 SwStrk% was elite--he misses a lot of bats.

The other side of that is that because he relies on a 2-seamer so heavily, when he misses location - which he is prone to do - he gets clobbered. Above average LD% and way, way above average HR/FB. Guessing all three of those metrics revert somewhat next year, but unless he finds something to compliment his hard fastball, I'd expect lots of rockets to go along with the Ks.

[MilwaukeesBest]

With or without Feliz, I'm going to predict this bullpen will be poor and will cost us ten extra losses with meltdowns. So, if you look at the offense and some potential bounce backs in the rotation to put you on a 77 win level, you'd fall to 67 wins with bullpen implosions.

 

I probably wouldn't get Feliz myself but I can see the attempt to minimize heinous losses caused by a subpar pen.

 

I think a lineup of:

 

2b Villar

Cf Broxton

Lf Braun

1b Thames

Rf Santiago

3b Shaw/Perez

SS Arcia

C Susac/Bandy

 

With a rotation of Guerra, Davies, Garza, Peralta, Nelson

 

That's 77-81 win talent if things go well. But the bullpen blows ten from there.

 

Pet Peeve: I really dislike it when posters spell player's names incorrectly, especially when they butcher Santana as Santiago. Crossing my fingers as it being autocorrect but I've seen it before and it's cringeworthy.

[Austin Tatious]

Sorry about that. I know his name but not sure what happened there. Could have been autocorrect. I know Feliz started to come out as Perez.