Neftali Feliz - Because Random Tweets Have Come Through This Offseason

[MKE81]

And Feliz will only cost a team 2M if traded at the break

But, Milwaukee will be on the hook for at least $4MM. And $6MM if they can't deal him (or have to send cash to deal him). That's a pretty substantial hurdle to get excess value out of.

 

The Sneed and Rogers deals also need to thought of as one possible outcome of a trade - not all deals will work out that well. So it's not only getting a prospect (or prospects) worth more than what they're paying Feliz, it's having those guys also turn into valuable major leaguers.

4M means nothing to the Brewers. Neither does 6M. He's proved his entire career that when he's healthy he's very good. There's zero downside to this signing.

[And That]

Basically, I'd rather they focus on spending money on guys that could be around for when the club is contending, like Hwang or a creative deal with a Henderson Alvarez or Nate Eovaldi. Spending money on a guy to try to turn into another guy who might be around seems like a wasted step.

[billymac]

Does anyone say it's a 1 year deal. Couldn't it be 2 years for 6.5m and the promise to close?

[And That]

There's zero downside to this signing.

The downside is the opportunity cost of not allowing a younger, controllable pitcher a shot at the closer's role in a year when having a closer won't be that important. I don't think that downside is worth the upside of whatever it is you may or may not get for Feliz in July.

[MKE81]

Basically, I'd rather they focus on spending money on guys that could be around for when the club is contending, like Hwang or a creative deal with a Henderson Alvarez or Nate Eovaldi. Spending money on a guy to try to turn into another guy who might be around seems like a wasted step.

Huh? They're both SPs and FAs after this year I believe. By 2018 the Brewers will have Hader, Woodruff, Davies + possibly still Nelson, Chase, Guerra and others with Ortiz knocking on the door. What does adding Alvarez and Eovaldi do? They both give up more hits than IP and bring nothing to separate themselves over the others we already have moving forward.

 

Regarding the pen, the Brewers have several younger pen arms and will add to that over the next few years with other guys coming through the system (including SPs converted to the pen)

[MKE81]

There's zero downside to this signing.

The downside is the opportunity cost of not allowing a younger, controllable pitcher a shot at the closer's role in a year when having a closer won't be that important. I don't think that downside is worth the upside of whatever it is you may or may not get for Feliz in July.

Disagree. The only young, controllable internal candidates for closing are Barnes, Knebel and Magnifico (who has 3IP in MLB so he's not even an option right now). Barnes (27ip in career) and Magnifico are controlled for 6yrs and Knebel (92ip in career) for 5yrs. If Feliz takes the closer role for 1yr then there's plenty of time for these guys to gain closer experience. Thornburg barely has half a season as a closer. These young guys need more experience to begin with before being put in the closer role so when you can add a talent like Feliz you take that opportunity

[sveumrules]

Stearns & Counsell have both been pretty vocal about believing that competition is good for development. I think this potential signing helps to accomplish that. If Knebel or Barnes or anyone else proves they deserve to close they will get that opportunity. This rumored acquisition seems to imply the organization doesn't believe they are there yet.

[MKE81]

Again, the best return for a non-elite reliever on a short deal at the deadline last year was the Rodney-Paddack swap. Is Chris Paddack (who incidentally is now hurt and out for the year due to TJ surgery) worth more than $6 million bucks? And Rodney had to post an obscenely low ERA to get Paddack.

Rodney is 10yrs older than Feliz and maybe you should compare their numbers over the past 8yrs and let us know which one is consistent and predictable.

[MadThinker88]

I completely agree with MKE81.

Felix is a good pickup if it can be finalized and at a reasonable cost. It helps with internal competition and development. Assuming Felix is doing a solid job during the first 4 months, he could be a trade chip at the deadline (if the return is good).

 

Thumbs up on this.

[JohnBriggs12]

Man I can't believe the negativity about this move. The Brewers have the lowest payroll in baseball. It's not like they are spending Aroldis Chapman money. It's likely a one year commitment and it still allows guys like Barnes and Knebel to gain plenty of experience in high leverage situations. Neither of those two has stuff that screams closer right off the bat.

 

It's very deflating blowing game after game late, I don't care if your team is capable of 100 wins or 70 wins. We didn't have to suffer through that last year and that made a rebuilding year a little more palatable. Yes the odds them contending in 2017 are long but they aren't completely nil. A lot would have to happen sure, but there are a lot of unknowns on this team. The least they can do is start the year with a respectable competitive roster.

[MKEguy]

I also don't get the negativity regarding this possible trade.

 

If the upside of a trade this July is the Rodney - Paddock trade, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

 

This is from MLB TR last summer...

 

"In order to gain the low cost and relatively high-upside reliever, Miami had to part with a fairly intriguing prospect. Paddack was just an eighth-round pick in the 2015 draft, but he has been nothing short of remarkable at the Class A level in 2016. Over 28 1/3 innings, he has allowed a ridiculous nine hits and carries a brilliant 0.95 ERA with a 48-to-2 K/BB ratio. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis rate him the 17th-best prospect on an poorly-regarded Marlins farm — the same offseason ranking he received from Baseball America — but it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise."

 

Paddock is now rated a "50" overall pitching prospect that's still years away. Who wouldn't want to pay $4M to buy that prospect right now?

 

Like others have said, worst case is Feliz gives up 84 homers and we pay him $6.5M to throw in the 5th. By that time, the youngsters will get the opportunity to close anyways.

[brewcrewdue80]

I see nothing wrong with the signing if/when it happens. MLBTR gave a shout out to BF.net and Jim Goulhart. Wonder how many check out the site, maybe join with the little bit of extra exposure.

 

Kneble and Blazek were types when traded for to be closer potentials, but both didn't give the safe feeling to be. Barnes just seemed to inexperienced to be awarded the job. I'm better with having either as setup and play in to a closer role with some more experience to decide which is better to place in the role. Feliz hasn't reached 60+IP since 2011 season, so there's strong chance Barnes or Kneble will get some closer chances even if we keep Feliz all season. This certainly makes the bullpen more predictable and I'd assume more likely to return to 73wins vs. a 65 win season.

[narwhalattack]

I like this move. Feliz is still relatively young and has the potential to provide a decent season. If he does well the Brewers have a solid reliever on their hands and can flip him for a prospect or two. If he doesn't do well it's not the end of the world.

[Outlander]

There isn't a lot of negativity, it is really one person. Nothing wrong with having a different opinion just that it isn't true that there is a lot of negativity.

[pacopete4]

Going to be the Stearns specialty of 2017. Probably will have 50 saves this year as we win 88 games. Can't wait!

[LouisEly]

Basically, I'd rather they focus on spending money on guys that could be around for when the club is contending, like Hwang or a creative deal with a Henderson Alvarez or Nate Eovaldi. Spending money on a guy to try to turn into another guy who might be around seems like a wasted step.

Eovaldi had a pretty big spike in HR rate last year too, which is probably why the Yankees released him. He throws hard, but that's about it - career K rate of 6.6/9. Might be worth seeing if he can pick up a couple of mph moving into the pen - if he can get to 98/99 out of the pen that would get interesting.

 

Looks like he tried picking up a split-finger fastball last year as fangraphs has him throwing that pitch 22% of the time but not previously in his career. Maybe that's what wasn't working for him. Bullpen with fastball/slider would be intriguing; maybe Guerra can show him how to throw the splitter better.

[NievesNoNO]

There's zero downside to this signing.

The downside is the opportunity cost of not allowing a younger, controllable pitcher a shot at the closer's role in a year when having a closer won't be that important. I don't think that downside is worth the upside of whatever it is you may or may not get for Feliz in July.

 

Agree with the opportunity cost. Although this would be better than the proposed Holland deal even if it's just a one year contract. But I agree, the upside of what he could return at the deadline is being overstated. I'd say the max return could be similar to Rodney or Melancon, and he'll have to close and be great. The opportunity to have one of our younger guys with more years of control pitch in those higher leverage situations and create value should definitely be a consideration.

 

On the other hand, the market has shown it values hard throwing elite relievers. Feliz is still young enough to potentially still have some untapped potential. If he can reign in his control or figure out how change one of his pitches to either generate more ground balls or more swings and misses he could elevate himself to elite status.

 

In a vacuum, for this year's team I would actually like the move. It's always at least more interesting/entertaining to have guys coming out of the pen that can run it up there at 95-96 or so.

[MKE81]

Nobody ever stated what Feliz's return could be other than both you guys saying Chris Paddack as best case scenario. The same Paddack who will have a plus fastball, plus to plus-plus change, average breaking ball and above average-plus command. Sounds terrible.

 

Again, Rodney is 10yrs older than Feliz and has been a much worse and more inconsistent reliever since 2009. So how will the Rodney trade be the ideal comparison? The only stated reasoning has been because he's a FA after this year. So then using that logic if Holland, Romo, etc sign for a 1yr deal and pitch well then you can expect a Paddack return at best, right? I mean previous production seems to be irrelevant along with age.

 

Again, Barnes and Knebel aren't experienced relievers and they have 6 and 5yrs of control. There's no logical reason to force them into the closer role right now. They'll get plenty of high leverage experience in the 7th and 8th innings with the occasional close opportunity. Feliz is a great move and hopefully he adds one more reliever

[And That]

Nobody ever stated what Feliz's return could be other than both you guys saying Chris Paddack as best case scenario. The same Paddack who will have a plus fastball, plus to plus-plus change, average breaking ball and above average-plus command. Sounds terrible.

And Tommy John surgery. He was a 50 OFP prospect before surgery, maybe teetering into 55, with likely landing spot in the 45-50 range. Now that's all a question mark, and it is possible the Marlins knew about some structural issues before they traded him.

 

The Melancon deal netted the Pirates two 45-ish guys, one who is a reliever and the other who likely will be.

 

Joe Smith netted some random dude.

 

Tyler Clippard netted someone whom the Diamondbacks thought highly enough of to lose on waivers shortly thereafter.

 

Mike Montgomery basically netted Dan Vogelbach, who is a good bat but can't play in the NL.

 

Jeffress basically netted Ryan Cordell.

 

I've seen the term "nice haul" used a handful of times for what the insinuation was the Brewers would be expected to get for signing Feliz. Ignoring the fact that Feliz might not pitch well enough to be traded at all, if the above returns would be considered "nice hauls" - I'm willing to acknowledge the semantic difference and move on.

[And That]

Basically, I'd rather they focus on spending money on guys that could be around for when the club is contending, like Hwang or a creative deal with a Henderson Alvarez or Nate Eovaldi. Spending money on a guy to try to turn into another guy who might be around seems like a wasted step.

Eovaldi had a pretty big spike in HR rate last year too, which is probably why the Yankees released him. He throws hard, but that's about it - career K rate of 6.6/9. Might be worth seeing if he can pick up a couple of mph moving into the pen - if he can get to 98/99 out of the pen that would get interesting.

 

Looks like he tried picking up a split-finger fastball last year as fangraphs has him throwing that pitch 22% of the time but not previously in his career. Maybe that's what wasn't working for him. Bullpen with fastball/slider would be intriguing; maybe Guerra can show him how to throw the splitter better.

Eovaldi and the other pitcher I referenced, Henderson Alvarez, are both coming off of injury and I wouldn't sign either unless it was a multi-year deal. Eovaldi actually might not pitch in 2017 at all. Again, I'm looking for what might help the Brewers when they are ready to contend, not who will accumulate counting stats in a non-contending year.

[And That]

There isn't a lot of negativity, it is really one person. Nothing wrong with having a different opinion just that it isn't true that there is a lot of negativity.

I'm not really even that negative about it, more nonplussed. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if they sign Feliz. I might just lament the opportunity passed over to develop an in-house closer for when the Brewers are ready to contend again, perhaps as soon as the next year or two from now.

 

Would definitely be worse ways to light $6MM on fire.

[CheezWizHed]

Before Jeffress and Thornburg were closers, they were high leverage setup relievers. No real difference in situation as closer. And they aren't raking up saves to inflate their future arbitration. I don't see anything wrong with that

[jerichoholicninja]

Thornburg and Jeffress turned less than a full season as a closer after a couple years as great setup guys into decent returns. Barnes and Knebel have have no track record and a spotty track record respectively. Let's worry about them pitching well at all before we worry about making them closers to up their trade value.

[And That]

Why is the assumption that developing a closer in the form of Knebel/Barnes/Peralta/Lopez/etc would lead to an immediate trade of said closer? The Brewers should begin developing relievers to contend, not to trade away. (Maybe with the exception of Peralta/Torres given their control remaining.)

 

Any innings Feliz pitches takes away higher leverage opportunities from guys who still might be here in a year or two.

[nate82]

Any innings Feliz pitches takes away higher leverage opportunities from guys who still might be here in a year or two.

 

Not really the majority of closers pitch in low leverage opportunities. Think about it when do closers come into the game? The majority of their opportunities are when the team is up by 3 runs. The 7th and 8th inning pitchers come in when it is close and late in the game. The 7th and 8th inning guys are going to get at a minimum the same amount of high leverage opportunities if not more than your closer will. So Feliz is not going to be taking away high leverage opportunities from the guys who still might be here in a year or two. The only thing Feliz will be taking away from them is the counting stat of saves. Which actually benefits the Brewers as it will keep their arbitration numbers down.