Neftali Feliz - Because Random Tweets Have Come Through This Offseason

[Mass Haas]

Neftali Feliz -- take it for what it may be worth

 

Random Unsubstantiated Tweet

 

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Stache Face @1_squashing_u

 

@Haudricourt friend of mine who works for Frisco Rough Riders just text me and said @Brewers getting Neftali Feliz. Any truth to this?

 

10:19 AM - 14 Jan 2017

[Mass Haas]

And this translated tweet (again rumor, but hey, fun rumor) says $6.5 million for Mr. Feliz.

 

silfredo melo ‏@silfredomelo 14m14 minutes ago

 

Rumor tells us that our azuano Neftali Feliz has one foot in the Brewers and that is 6.5 #MLB

 

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Random tweets can be fun for fans who don't have to bother with substantiating things like pro journalists have to, so this is typed with respect for Tom and Adam who can follow-up on their own, but just can't re-tweet or speculate like we can.

[Bnowell4evr]

I hope it's true. Hes the reliever I wanted to target the most.

[And That]

If the Brewers wanted a HR-prone hard thrower with spotty control to be their closer, they already had Corey Knebel.

[BrewCrewForever]

If it is a 2 year deal for $6.5 mill then I am fine with it. But I doubt it is.

[homer]

If the Brewers wanted a HR-prone hard thrower with spotty control to be their closer, they already had Corey Knebel.

 

His HR/FB spiked last year. Could have been a one off. At any rate his velocity is back up where it was his ROY year. I'm ok taking a flier on him for a year.

[And That]

If the $6.5MM figure is right, then the Brewers gave him a $2.6MM raise as a reward for that HR rate spike. Seems to be kind of the opposite of buying low.

 

Even if they think it was a fluke/can fix the underlying issue, what is the upside? Unless he has a first half similar to Rodney did in SD last year, they likely aren't getting anything much of value at the deadline.

[Outlander]

Another nice find Mass Haas, even Heyman is suggesting Brewers now. I would actually like the signing. Velocity was up and it was a nice bounceback from his miserable 2015, except for the home runs.

[MrTPlush]

If the $6.5MM figure is right, then the Brewers gave him a $2.6MM raise as a reward for that HR rate spike. Seems to be kind of the opposite of buying low.

 

Even if they think it was a fluke/can fix the underlying issue, what is the upside? Unless he has a first half similar to Rodney did in SD last year, they likely aren't getting anything much of value at the deadline.

 

He took his SO/9 from 7.3 to 10.2.

 

H9 went from over 10 to 6.7

 

WHIP from 1.55 to 1.1

 

Those numbers create a lot of upside along with the arsenal he brings to the table. HR numbers drop and he could put up good numbers and he is a known name. Thats a great piece to gamble on as the return in July could be nice.

 

They have lots of money and no obvious closer. Why not?

[markedman5]

[homer]

The money doesn't really bother me. It's not like signing him is preventing another move. At worst they eat some of the contract when they trade him.

[homer]

Also, shout-out to Mass Haas for finding this AND alerting the Brewers to Guerra's intention on pitching this winter

[And That]

Thats a great piece to gamble on as the return in July could be nice.

 

If recent history is a guide, it won't be.

[And That]

The money doesn't really bother me. It's not like signing him is preventing another move. At worst they eat some of the contract when they trade him.

I don't really care about the money either, it's just not creating any value. There's a lot, lot more upside in letting Knebel or Barnes develop as a closer.

[homer]

The money doesn't really bother me. It's not like signing him is preventing another move. At worst they eat some of the contract when they trade him.

I don't really care about the money either, it's just not creating any value. There's a lot, lot more upside in letting Knebel or Barnes develop as a closer.

 

How long are those guys controlled? Maybe Brewers figure they can let one of them close after Feliz is traded - ala Thornburg this year.

[And That]

How long are those guys controlled? Maybe Brewers figure they can let one of them close after Feliz is traded - ala Thornburg this year.

Thornburg was behind two controllable guys in Smith and Jeffress. Feliz is on a 1-year deal. It's just a wheel-spinning move.

[Outlander]

Nah, Knebel and Barnes have plenty of time to close, it is a low risk move that stabilizes the bullpen and can payoff at the deadline. History would seem to indicate they can get a nice haul.

[And That]

it is a low risk move that stabilizes the bullpen and can payoff at the deadline. History would seem to indicate they can get a nice haul.

I would urge you to look at the returns on non-elite relievers on short term deals from around the 2016 deadline. Not much payoff.

[MKE81]

Knebel and Barnes have like 5-6yrs of control left. There's plenty of time to let them develop as closers but they need to get their feet wet in the 7th and 8th innings more. Feliz is talented and his numbers last year were more in line with his highly productive years. I'm hoping it's a 2yr deal.

 

And how is there no value in signing him? He had one bad year (2015). He had a 2.85 ERA in mid-Aug last year then ran into arm issues and was shut down for the year a couple weeks later (and his ERA ballooned to 3.52 as a result). If he continues to bounce back to his 2010-2014 years, which he was doing last year, there's plenty of value in a player like him. The guy has a better, and longer, track record than Thornburg and Smith (clearly they had 3yrs of control left, which plays a factor) but only Jeffress had similar numbers to him but Feliz has a long track record there too

[MKE81]

How long are those guys controlled? Maybe Brewers figure they can let one of them close after Feliz is traded - ala Thornburg this year.

Thornburg was behind two controllable guys in Smith and Jeffress. Feliz is on a 1-year deal. It's just a wheel-spinning move.

Has it been reported that it's a 1yr deal?

[And That]

And how is there no value in signing him?

Didn't say he had no value, said he wasn't creating any value. Likely deadline return on him, if he produces, is probably going to be pretty light, and at a cost of $6MM. If they don't trade him, he's a closer on a 70-75 win club and is pitching for someone else next year*.

 

Would be a good signing for a club on the cusp of/in contention. Brewers are not that club.

 

*Assuming it's a one-year deal, which it seems to be. If it's a 2-year deal, it's more defensible.

[MKE81]

But by you saying he's not "creating" value you're saying he's worth the same regardless of his performance. I disagree with that. He has a track record of being very effective. From 2009-2014 he threw 241.2ip, 151h, 92bb, 226k, 2.53 ERA. 2015 wasn't good. 2016 up until mid-Aug he posted 47.1ip, 31h, 16bb, 53k, 2.85 ERA (better H/9, BB/9, K/9 rates than first 6yrs of career). Then he was roughed up next half dozen outings and was shut down for the year so one can point to his arm issues affecting him as his H and BB rates sky rocketed along with his ERA. If he performs this year how he did last year (before injury) then that's another year of success added to his track record and another year of production removed from his bad 2015 showing a trend he's back to usual self thus creating more value for him.

 

You don't need an Ortiz or Bickford in return to have a great trade. Sneed and Rogers brought back Villar and Broxton.

[And That]

Sneed and Rogers brought back Villar and Broxton.

Sneed and Rogers didn't cost $6MM.

 

Again, the best return for a non-elite reliever on a short deal at the deadline last year was the Rodney-Paddack swap. Is Chris Paddack (who incidentally is now hurt and out for the year due to TJ surgery) worth more than $6 million bucks? And Rodney had to post an obscenely low ERA to get Paddack.

[MKE81]

Sneed and Rogers brought back Villar and Broxton.

Sneed and Rogers didn't cost $6MM.

They also won't provide critical production to a contender down the stretch and potentially in the playoffs - mainly because neither will have MLB careers to begin with. And Feliz will only cost a team 2M if traded at the break

[And That]

And Feliz will only cost a team 2M if traded at the break

But, Milwaukee will be on the hook for at least $4MM. And up to $6MM if they can't deal him (or have to send cash to deal him). That's a pretty substantial hurdle to get excess value out of.

 

The Sneed and Rogers deals also need to be thought of as one possible outcome of a trade - not all deals will work out that well. So it's not only getting a prospect (or prospects) worth more than what they're paying Feliz, it's having those guys also turn into valuable major leaguers.