Storen to the Reds

[JDBrewCrew]

Cincinnati Reds ‏@Reds 33s34 seconds ago

The #Reds have signed Indianapolis native RHP @DrewStoren to a 1-year major league deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

Pretty reasonable deal of $3 million plus incentives. I had Storen near the top as fit for Brewers.

[MadThinker88]

I like the move from a couple of view points:

1 - Storen is betting on himself to rebound and if successful he likely lands a multi year/ multi million per year deal next off season

2 - Reds pick up an arm that has late inning experience & if he does very well they have a trade chip for the deadline

3 - Reds bolster their pen to minimize/ reduce the number of late inning meltdowns that really suck the life out of a ball club, especially one rebuilding and trying to avoid another 95+ loss season. Avoiding those life draining heartbreaks really helps a rebuilding ball club grow.

[patrickgpe]

seems pretty reasonable as a closer option / reclamation project. not sure how much the brewers were in on him, but both organizations have a pretty clear path to the closers job if he has a good spring.

 

interesting to see that there is a 500k bonus if he is traded though.

[jerichoholicninja]

I couldn't believe when I saw he's only 29. I would have guessed mid 30's. Seems like he's been around forever.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like the move from a couple of view points:

1 - Storen is betting on himself to rebound and if successful he likely lands a multi year/ multi million per year deal next off season

2 - Reds pick up an arm that has late inning experience & if he does very well they have a trade chip for the deadline

3 - Reds bolster their pen to minimize/ reduce the number of late inning meltdowns that really suck the life out of a ball club, especially one rebuilding and trying to avoid another 95+ loss season. Avoiding those life draining heartbreaks really helps a rebuilding ball club grow.

 

All very valid which is why it would behoove the Brewers to see if they can re-acquire Jeffress for one of their excess (Nelson or Anderson in particular) starters even if they have to include a lower B or C level prospect.

[monty57]

I expect/hope the Brewers make a move like this, and hopefully this helps set the price tag for them. It's well worth a $3M gamble for the chance to trade him away for some nice prospects at the deadline if he plays well.

[MillerParkSouth]

Trading one of our back end starters (and a prospect?!) for Jeffress would be total lunacy. I have no doubt we will sign a "proven closer" looking to rebound so we can trade him, but under no circumstances should we give up any real assets other than cash to do so.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know, bit of a reach to hope to flip a Storen for a really good prospect. A big reason why the Brewers were able to get quality back for Jeffress, Smith, and Thornburg was the several years of control that came with these young, cheap late inning guys.

 

Hey, I have no problem with this deal but I could take it or leave it. And I would be shocked if they don't add another BP arm before the season starts.

[monty57]

I don't know, bit of a reach to hope to flip a Storen for a really good prospect. A big reason why the Brewers were able to get quality back for Jeffress, Smith, and Thornburg was the several years of control that came with these young, cheap late inning guys.

 

Hey, I have no problem with this deal but I could take it or leave it. And I would be shocked if they don't add another BP arm before the season starts.

 

I would look for a guy with "name value" and no real check marks against him. Winning teams will also be going after him, but they would only be able to offer a setup or middle relief role, while the Brewers can promise him the closer role (at least to start the season in case he totally bombs). If he succeeds, by proving himself in the 9th inning his trade value should be elevated, which would help the Brewers, and he will be a "proven closer," which will help him sign a bigger deal next offseason.

 

The main risk to the Brewers is the few million they pay him, while the upside could be a decent half season out of a reliever and some decent prospects at the deadline. It may not be a blockbuster haul, but it's a low-risk way of adding talent to the system.

[3and2Fastball]

We've repeatedly seen teams overpay for closers. This is the type of signing you roll the dice on, for sure. If he has a great 1st half he can be flipped for a strong return

[And That]

If he has a great 1st half he can be flipped for a strong return

How often does a non-elite reliever get flipped for a strong return right after signing a FA contract, though? Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculously low ERA in the first half last year, and that netted Chris Paddack a month before the deadline, who might develop into a #3/#4 if he develops a breaking ball at some point, and if he can stay healthy. He's a nice prospect but just had TJ surgery - strong return? Maybe?

 

On the other hand, if you look at the returns for Tyler Clippard, Jason Grilli, Brad Ziegler, Joe Smith, or Zach Duke around the deadline last year, they range from middling to meh.

 

So if the Reds' plan is to spend $2-3 million on Storen and best-case end up with a Chris Paddack, why not just call up teams and start offering them $2-3 million for a Chris Paddack-type prospect? Cut out the middle man and give someone you want to keep around a chance.

 

Not saying it's a bad move to sign Storen, it's not, but the Reds should be hoping for long-term value from Storen, not a scratch-off ticket.

[TURBO]

 

Not saying it's a bad move to sign Storen, it's not, but the Reds should be hoping for long-term value from Storen, not a scratch-off ticket.

 

Why is it any different for the Reds than us? I constantly see posts about getting a player and flipping them later, hardly a day goes by that it isn't mentioned. If it's good for the Brewers, why not good for anyone else? Not saying that Storen won't be that kind of player, but if it is as common as most here think, more power to the Reds.

[mrn1ceguy]

If he has a great 1st half he can be flipped for a strong return

How often does a non-elite reliever get flipped for a strong return right after signing a FA contract, though? Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculously low ERA in the first half last year, and that netted Chris Paddack a month before the deadline, who might develop into a #3/#4 if he develops a breaking ball at some point, and if he can stay healthy. He's a nice prospect but just had TJ surgery - strong return? Maybe?

 

On the other hand, if you look at the returns for Tyler Clippard, Jason Grilli, Brad Ziegler, Joe Smith, or Zach Duke around the deadline last year, they range from middling to meh.

 

So if the Reds' plan is to spend $2-3 million on Storen and best-case end up with a Chris Paddack, why not just call up teams and start offering them $2-3 million for a Chris Paddack-type prospect? Cut out the middle man and give someone you want to keep around a chance.

 

Not saying it's a bad move to sign Storen, it's not, but the Reds should be hoping for long-term value from Storen, not a scratch-off ticket.

 

It's not that you are trading 2-3 million for a prospect. You are risking 2-3 million to create a valuable commodity that will be highly sought after at a time where that commodity is not available for just money (the trade deadline).

 

Any number of playoff contenders could have signed Storen right now for that price, but would rather have someone else take the risk and then if it works out and if the contending team needs another BP arm, overpay with a prospect to get the player. In theory it should cost them more later but it allows them to make sure the BP arm they are trading for is being productive this season and also to see if maybe they have a good enough BP and don't need one. This way the contending team can sign their version of storen now and if he fails, trade for the successful version of storen later or do none of it if their storen is successful.

 

Also, based on the weird AZ to ATL trade of Toussaint, it took a $10 million dead contract to get him, so straight up 2-3 million now doesn't get you reputable or high upside prospects. If you want those prospects, you have to roll the dice on these reclamation projects and hope they work out.

[And That]

Also, based on the weird AZ to ATL trade of Toussaint, it took a $10 million dead contract to get him, so straight up 2-3 million now doesn't get you reputable or high upside prospects. If you want those prospects, you have to roll the dice on these reclamation projects and hope they work out.

That's the point though, at least judging by last year's market, you almost certainly aren't getting a Toussaint-level (or at least at the level Toussaint was a year and a half ago) prospect for a reliever you're just signing now. Unless Storen is amazing and posts an immaculate ERA, they're probably paying a couple million for this guy or maybe this guy.

 

Again, I don't think it's a bad signing and I understand why contending teams wouldn't be as willing to take a chance on Storen (though maybe they should). It's just the idea that scrap pile relievers can suddenly be worth their weight in prospect gold at the deadline doesn't seem to be true.

[jerichoholicninja]

Storen needs a full year and a half of success before he starts bringing back anything special in a trade. This one year deal doesn't really help the Reds at all unless there's a team option for next season.

 

Storen at least does have a track record of success until he got hurt. It's not like a good 2017 will be a flash in the pan season.

[And That]

Why is it any different for the Reds than us?

It's not.

[mrn1ceguy]

That's the point though, at least judging by last year's market, you almost certainly aren't getting a Toussaint-level (or at least at the level Toussaint was a year and a half ago) prospect for a reliever you're just signing now. Unless Storen is amazing and posts an immaculate ERA, they're probably paying a couple million for this guy or maybe this guy.

 

Again, I don't think it's a bad signing and I understand why contending teams wouldn't be as willing to take a chance on Storen (though maybe they should). It's just the idea that scrap pile relievers can suddenly be worth their weight in prospect gold at the deadline doesn't seem to be true.

 

I would say that none of the reclamation projects last year panned out, so the trade market looked for the proven relievers (chapman, miller, even Will Smith and Jeffress). If the reclamation projects worked, then their might have been the mid-range trades of good single prospects for good one year wonder relievers. I would also say that last years reliever market trade was a bubble that's unlikely to repeat itself where top relievers can get 2+ elite prospects, so overall the quality of prospects should be limited. For example if we were trading away our prospects, we would be giving up a Woodruff or Devin Williams instead of the Ortiz and/or Bickford(+). But I have a lot of conjecture in this post so who knows.

[homer]

His dad (Mark Patrick) used to do the sports segment with Bob and Brian.

[monty57]

From MLBtraderumors:

 

The Brewers have been in contact with the representatives for seasoned free-agent closers, but there’s no guarantee they’ll sign any of the remaining available options (e.g. Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Greg Holland).

 

These are all good pitchers with good track records. If we can get one of these guys by guaranteeing them that they will be our closer, then I think someone would give up a prospect at the deadline if they are pitching well.

[And That]

There's also an opportunity cost to signing a cheap veteran arm to close out games. There's a lot more valuation upside in giving Knebel/Barnes high leverage/end of game opportunities than there is giving those some opportunities to a Santiago Casilla. The Brewers have to weigh development of the guys they already have rostered against the odds of increasing the value of a guy that is still unsigned 5-6 weeks out from pitchers and catchers reporting.

 

The guys monty listed likely will command a healthy bit higher salary than Storen as well. The Brewers basically blew a couple million on Boyer/Capuano last year, so it makes me wonder if they'll be hesitant to commit salary to a veteran pitcher unless it comes at a really good value.