Trading Broxton

[And That]

Broxton is going to have so much more value at the end of this season than he does now, assuming he produces at the plate like many of us think he will. If he's traded next December, the team that trades for him will still control his contract through the 2022 season - 5 seasons! That's valuable even with just decent offensive production and plus defense.

 

The poster above, adambr2, is right. No one will give the Brewers the value that Broxton has right now. There's still a lot of uncertainty of what he can produce, so the Brewers will continue assuming the production risk (at almost no cost). If Keon goes nuts and is hitting like .280/.380/.500 at the deadline, perhaps the team can start to get closer to realizing his trade value, but even then I think it behooves them to wait until the offseason.

[MrTPlush]

Odds are you aren't going to get any real value as long as he strikes out 1/3 of his ABs. That's not a really good place to be in and unless you have sustained success for a lot of ABs no one will trust what you are doing.

 

No one is going to point to first half Broxton. He was totally different back then. That's like saying a pitcher sucked in the first half, but you fail to mention his fastball was 85mph and now it is 93mph. There is a reason for the improvement. That being said the second half still has a lot of concerns itself.

[adambr2]

That being said the second half still has a lot of concerns itself.

 

Like what? The K's? If he played like he did in the second half he would be a perennial All-Star and likely MVP candidate, yes even with the 33% K rate.

 

Broxton is always going to strike out a ton. That's not changing. Maybe he can get it down to the 28-30% range but even if he can't that doesn't change the fact that he can still be extremely valuable.

[brewcrewdue80]

In 31 ABs he's got 3HRs, 2 2bs, 1 3b and 2 SBs though says caught 3 times oops.

Even with 32% K rate when he returned, He took his .441OPS to .784 by season's end. And he's got great numbers ongoing in this ST. He doesn't have to drop his K rate much and especially not if he's going to carry an .800+ OPS, which seems very capable with his HRs and OB and near finish above .800 after that horrid start. Only 6 CFs had an OPS above .800 with as many ABs as Broxton. Jackie Bradley carried a .267 BA with an approximate 23% K rate last season. 5.3WAR(via ESPN) Joc Pederson approx. 27.5% K finished at .246 3.4WAR(via ESPN)

Both are not SB threats like Broxton. So I would consider that Broxton's window .245-.265 but with .350 OB like these two and an over .800OPS. This puts him in that 3.5-5.5 WAR which may be higher with defense/SB activity. Pederson was a top 20 prospect, Bradley a 23-50 top prospect.

 

So putting that in perspective since he would be in a similarity of these two and proving this value. You have to assess him in the 15-45 type range for a headlining prospect in a trade. And then + or ++ since he's cheap and controllable as well as proving. I doubt many fans would be upset on what it did cost in prospects to get him, if he's being a 25-30HR 45SB type.

[brewmann04]

Let the kid play at least until the all star game until thinking about possible moving him.

[MrTPlush]

Only way Broxton will be traded is if he were to be good, but a fringe to OK starter. There is no way he is being traded if he is borderline All Star(Corey Hart value) or better. He isn't FA eligible until after 2022. It would make little sense to trade him this early on or just in general. You aren't going to get the ridiculous value it would take to move him. Only way you trade him is if you truly feel an option in the minors is notably better. That problem is a ways from happening.

 

We need to keep cheap controllable players now...not trade them. The only argument to trade him starts with the return including a near MLB ready bonafide starting prospect. Even then if Keon Broxton is a proven commodity controllable through 2022 trading him just seems weird.

[FVBrewerFan]

If you believe they still need a really high quality SP, then trading Broxton or Villar may be the best way to get that done. At this point, I don't think either of them would fetch one, but if they show last season wasn't a fluke their value really goes up.

 

That's the only way I trade Broxton, if it was for a top shelf SP somewhere between AA-MLB. And I would want a low minors pitcher with upside to go along with it.

[homer]

I think they need to see what they have in Brinson and Arcia/Diaz/Dubon before they trade Villar or Broxton.

[CheeseheadInQC]

If Broxton proves the end of last season isn't a fluke and keeps hitting at a .850+ OPS clip, this might become moot simply because not only would it be difficult to justify trading a top-3 center fielder on a pre-arb deal, but you're also not going to have many teams that can afford to trade for one, especially in a pitching-centric deal. I mean at that point you're talking Giolito+Kopech or Glasnow+Keller given what Eaton fetched this offseason. The teams that have that kind of pitching prospect quality are going to be loath to give it up.

[Boomer5]

Only way Broxton will be traded is if he were to be good, but a fringe to OK starter. There is no way he is being traded if he is borderline All Star(Corey Hart value) or better. He isn't FA eligible until after 2022. It would make little sense to trade him this early on or just in general. You aren't going to get the ridiculous value it would take to move him. Only way you trade him is if you truly feel an option in the minors is notably better. That problem is a ways from happening.

 

We need to keep cheap controllable players now...not trade them. The only argument to trade him starts with the return including a near MLB ready bonafide starting prospect. Even then if Keon Broxton is a proven commodity controllable through 2022 trading him just seems weird.

 

Agreed. However IF, and its a big if, Broxton plays the first half of 2017 like he did the second half of 2016 you'd have one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball. If Eaton could net that crazy Nats package, I can't even come up with a trade that could get Broxton with his years of control remaining.

[MrTPlush]

Only way Broxton will be traded is if he were to be good, but a fringe to OK starter. There is no way he is being traded if he is borderline All Star(Corey Hart value) or better. He isn't FA eligible until after 2022. It would make little sense to trade him this early on or just in general. You aren't going to get the ridiculous value it would take to move him. Only way you trade him is if you truly feel an option in the minors is notably better. That problem is a ways from happening.

 

We need to keep cheap controllable players now...not trade them. The only argument to trade him starts with the return including a near MLB ready bonafide starting prospect. Even then if Keon Broxton is a proven commodity controllable through 2022 trading him just seems weird.

 

Agreed. However IF, and its a big if, Broxton plays the first half of 2017 like he did the second half of 2016 you'd have one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball. If Eaton could net that crazy Nats package, I can't even come up with a trade that could get Broxton with his years of control remaining.

 

At which point it becomes "Why are we even going to consider trading him?" or "He is so valuable his performance makes his value so high no one can offer fair exchange."

[Greenleaf1]

There's a reason players like that would get so much in return. It's because they're so valuable to their own team that the team would never want to trade them.

 

Some people on here seem to act like the idea will ALWAYS be to flip players for younger players. At some point, we want to actually win with the young players we have, and Broxton is a prime success story that might be our first major piece toward a World Series. I have no interest in trading the guy who could potentially be our best overall player the next 3 years. It's like saying the Pirates should've traded McCutchen 5 years ago.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think it is so much they think we always have to flip young players. I think some people think we are still in the trade for as many prospects as we can stage and we aren't. The Jonathan Villar extension attempt is pretty good proof the dismantling times are done. Now we are actually rebuilding the franchise and looking to add add add.

 

Keon Broxton is 100% a building block if he turns out to be good. The guy is going to be around a long time and that's assuming we don't extend him.

[mrn1ceguy]

There's a reason players like that would get so much in return. It's because they're so valuable to their own team that the team would never want to trade them.

 

Some people on here seem to act like the idea will ALWAYS be to flip players for younger players. At some point, we want to actually win with the young players we have, and Broxton is a prime success story that might be our first major piece toward a World Series. I have no interest in trading the guy who could potentially be our best overall player the next 3 years. It's like saying the Pirates should've traded McCutchen 5 years ago.

 

But, would you have traded McCutchen 5 years ago to get the next Garret Cole because you have the next Mike Cameron waiting in AAA? If that's the trade being offered, I would happily move Broxton.

[monty57]

No reason to trade Broxton now, just let things play out through this season.

 

It appears Braun is going to be a Brewer for the rest of his contract, so the best case scenario is for Braun, Brinson, Broxton and Santana to all play well. If that happens, we will probably have to look at trading one of Broxton, Brinson or Santana next offseason. In this scenario, Broxton or Santana should be able to bring back far more than they would net right now, we would have three excellent OFs, and we'd have a lot more young talent from the trade.

 

If someone doesn't pan out, or someone gets injured, then we should still have three very good OF.

[FVBrewerFan]

Some people on here seem to act like the idea will ALWAYS be to flip players for younger players. At some point, we want to actually win with the young players we have, and Broxton is a prime success story that might be our first major piece toward a World Series. I have no interest in trading the guy who could potentially be our best overall player the next 3 years.

 

Sorry if I give that impression, but I don't always want to flip every player. But I won't back down from saying every player CAN be traded at all times.

 

My hope is they build the possible team to be a contender in a window of 4-6 years. #1 need is and always has been starting pitching. They have far more OF depth than they do starting pitchers, so I would absolutely be open to trading Broxton for a really good SP. Braun isn't going anywhere, so only two spots for a whole lot of talent coming through.

 

The drop from Broxton to Brinson, Ray, Phillips, etc. is far less (if any) than the gain you would get from a great SP in the rotation instead of a Nelson or Lopez.

 

That doesn't mean they try to trade Broxton in some sort of panic. It means you keep yourself open to all offers, and if the phone rings you discuss any legit offer. They are dealing from a position of strength, and you only trade Broxton on your terms.

[MrTPlush]

There's a reason players like that would get so much in return. It's because they're so valuable to their own team that the team would never want to trade them.

 

Some people on here seem to act like the idea will ALWAYS be to flip players for younger players. At some point, we want to actually win with the young players we have, and Broxton is a prime success story that might be our first major piece toward a World Series. I have no interest in trading the guy who could potentially be our best overall player the next 3 years. It's like saying the Pirates should've traded McCutchen 5 years ago.

 

But, would you have traded McCutchen 5 years ago to get the next Garret Cole because you have the next Mike Cameron waiting in AAA? If that's the trade being offered, I would happily move Broxton.

 

I like how you talk about this hypothetical situation like these prospects are sure things. I mean yah sure if it worked that way who wouldn't? Too bad it's likely both don't get anywhere near their ceilings and very possible at least one dissapoints big time. That is the problem. Why gamble my known superstar like that?

[brewcrewdue80]

No reason to trade Broxton now, just let things play out through this season.

 

It appears Braun is going to be a Brewer for the rest of his contract, so the best case scenario is for Braun, Brinson, Broxton and Santana to all play well. If that happens, we will probably have to look at trading one of Broxton, Brinson or Santana next offseason. In this scenario, Broxton or Santana should be able to bring back far more than they would net right now, we would have three excellent OFs, and we'd have a lot more young talent from the trade.

 

If someone doesn't pan out, or someone gets injured, then we should still have three very good OF.

 

I think you just keep the 4 on the roster when the time comes. Im not 100% to Brinson being the insert to everyday lineup producer. The bb rate has concerns. I still think he'd get 50 games starting rotating days off. And it's not like Broxton/Santana have been injury proof, nevermind Braun's aging injury concerns.

 

I feel I started this renewed ferver of Broxton conversation when I suggested what by the numbers he should be worth, should he be an 800+ OPS even around 30% k rate. It wasn't a call to trade him, just an idea what it should begin with in a headline. Brewers are in a great position because between the 3 of Broxton, Santana, and Brinson a valuable player will come in any trade between the 3.

[3and2Fastball]

I would not be opposed to trading Broxton, but I'd want to be blown away by an offer for him. He is entering his age 26 season, so he isn't as young as other top prospects, but he's under team control until 2023. There is a lot of value there.

 

Long term durability is a legit concern http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/brewers-keon-broxton-leaves-game-with-wrist-discomfort/

 

Keon seems like an insurance policy if Brinson, Phillips, Ray don't turn out. I personally think he is better than Phillips, but we shall see.