Trading Broxton

[pacopete4]

Not saying it is a must but would the Blue Jays or Mariners be a good landing spot for a guy like Broxton?

 

Keon Broxton would be a upgrade over Kevin Pillar-TOR or Leonys Martin-SEA

 

 

Or possibly Denard Span-SFG & Jacoby Ellsbury.

[mlloyd10]

Aren't the mets looking for a CF? Szapucki and Nimmo?

[brewcrewdue80]

I wouldnt give Broxton the better than to those two after a rookie season.

Exactly what are we doing if we're trading away the better players thus far on this team who arent getting A prospects in return? Weve gone from Melvin extending players whom he should have traded, to wanting to rid of every good player of 1yr with 4+ years of team control, not named Zach Davies.

What if Broxton is the best OF in this organization? You trade him, and get back a Kevin Pillar type prospect, and a Wily Peralta type prospect.

Well great, we're worse now than we were with keeping Broxton.

Now if we were trading for a Chris Sale type pitcher who definitely improves the team, that is different. But that isnt realistic at this moment for that kind of trade. If Puig can live off of his first 2seasons, Broxton&Villar can certainly live on 2016 til their 2nd year of Arbitration. The value is 90% not going to reduce what it is today. But it can increase.

[adambr2]

I'm all for listening on any offers for anyone, but Broxton isn't a guy I would be motivated to move without a return consistent with what he did in the last few months of 2016 with a high level of cheap control.

 

I don't think anyone will give us that now and Broxton is a guy with 6 years left of control who's value will skyrocket in 2017 if he proves the last half of 2016 wasn't a fluke, so I doubt he gets moved.

[FVBrewerFan]

Broxton belongs in the same bucket as Arcia, Villar, and Davies. Young, cheap, controllable for years, and potentially part of the next competitive team. In theory, any of them could be traded for the right deal. I just don't see a team willing to offer what it would take to trade any of those guys. If someone offered a Hader for him? Sure, I would do that.

[pacopete4]

Broxton only belongs there if you think his second half play was more in line with him. If you think it's more towards his first half play you get what you can and run.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't see Broxton getting dealt unless the Brewers are absolutely sold that he's a fluke just because he is probably the toughest guy to correctly value. If the second half of last season is even close to sustainable, you might just have the best center fielder in the National League, a guy worth more than the White Sox got for Eaton. If the first half form comes back, you've got a nice pinch-runner/defensive replacement. He has tons of tools but almost no track record. He has eye-popping numbers, but in a combination that gives you almost no points for comparison and makes him nearly impossible to project.

 

Also, is a contender going to place as much value in a high ceiling, low floor guy as a rebuilding team such as the Brewers' would or would they want more of a sure thing? A trade between the Brewers and a second rebuilding team might actually be more likely if he gets dealt, but I just don't see it happening.

[adambr2]

Yeah, it would make me sick to deal Broxton now and then watch him hit 20 HR and steal 60 bases next year. Because literally, if you project his stats last year out to a full season of ABs, that's what you'd get. So if his last 2 months were anything legitimate at all, he's going to be really good.

 

I know it probably feels like I am overselling Broxton, but I don't believe I am. BWar and FWar were in agreement, he was a 2.1 WAR guy last season, (basically near $17M in FA value), and this was with literally about 1/3rd of a full season's worth of ABs, and this was after he was basically the worst player on the team til about the end of July. When you put it that way, it's a pretty astonishing rise.

 

So to me, it's hard to sell a guy like that when you just really don't know what you have and no one is going to pay a top prospect price for the complete unknown.

[splitterpfj]

Braxton broke his wrist, then got himself arrested - even if you favor dealing him, this doesn't seem like the best time.

[adambr2]

The Mets are looking for a long-term every day CF in trade, but yeah, a team that was cheap on Lucroy up until the last possible minute isn't going to give us enough.

 

I'm excited to see Broxton play for the Brewers in 2017. One of the things that still really makes the game fun when you know you're not going to contend, is finding out who your future stars are.

 

Broxton, Villar, Arcia, Brinson when he gets here, those will all be my favorite guys to watch next year.

[patrickgpe]

i am fine with moving him because I am not 100% sure that he will not regress to his 1st half of last season stats. that being said a team would have to blow DS away with an offer. they are probably a year away from Brinson playing every day in center and have plenty of CF depth in the pipeline.

[pacopete4]

Braxton broke how wrist, then got himself arrested - even if you favor dealing him, this doesn't seem like the best time.

 

 

I hadn't really even considered these two things. Whether you are believer in his second half or not, these two things might drive the price down all by itself. [sarcasm]Who started this thread anyways?[/sarcasm]

[rwa12]

**Completely Irrelevant Comment**

 

Every time I see one of these "Trading x" posts, it makes me think of the "Killing x" book series by Bill O'Reilly. (Which are really good, regardless of how you feel about him)

[pacopete4]

**Completely Irrelevant Comment**

 

Every time I see one of these "Trading x" posts, it makes me think of the "Killing x" book series by Bill O'Reilly. (Which are really good, regardless of how you feel about him)

 

 

Agreed.

[jerichoholicninja]

Broxton only belongs there if you think his second half play was more in line with him. If you think it's more towards his first half play you get what you can and run.

 

His two halves of last season are such total opposites I don't think you can really take anything he did last year as a projection going forward.

[Roderick]

Broxton only belongs there if you think his second half play was more in line with him. If you think it's more towards his first half play you get what you can and run.

 

His two halves of last season are such total opposites I don't think you can really take anything he did last year as a projection going forward.

 

I am thinking that he is closer to that second half batter than the first half guy who started slow so and it just snowballed on him (not quite Brad Nelson style).

 

After starting anew with 47 games in Colorado (I know) he was a .924 OPS there.

 

Which is much closer to his post all star game .937 in the majors. Pre all star game MLB ops was .441

[adambr2]

Well, he won't OPS .937 in 2017...Or I sure don't think he will, because if he does, he'll probably compete for an MVP award next year with his baserunning and D.

 

But even if you take the cumulative average of what he did last year and project it out for a full season, that's a very valuable player.

 

I agree he's a very tough projection. But we need to find out what the bigger picture is on him, so he absolutely needs to play every day next year, not 2 or 3 times a week, no matter how fast or slow he starts.

[brewcrewdue80]

You can project the Defense and SB ability. certainly to the 40SB+ range. And I'm pretty sure based on minors you could at least give him 15HRs with potential over 20. Below avg BA but avg or better OB. If he remains a positive Defensive CF there is not much keeping him from exceeding 3WAR with 125+ games played. And with a .260/.335/.425 type line with 20HRs, and 45 SBs I'd think that he reaches 5WAR if not higher.

 

Just why would you risk trading that away before it's happened? Denard Span would be a little comparable minus the power. He got Alex Meyer a top 50 type pitching prospect, yet to pan out, but that type of prospect with 3 years/20.25mil contract control remaining. Span pretty much had a sub .700 OPS the last 3 years played with Minn before the trade when he produced 5WAR with a .738OPS 4HRs/17SBs .283/.342 year. And that's why I say Broxton's year last season, his finished totals, will carry with him for awhile, his trade value just won't drop the next 3seasons to what it must be today. It can only go higher.

While we have a far greater number of OF prospects, until they've reached the team and performed to a higher value than Broxton, He remains more valuable to this team than they are. What a trade to acquire him for Rogers, and also get Trey Supak.

[NievesNoNO]

Boy, I'd have to be really shocked by the offer. A front-line starter type is the only thing right now that'd make much sense, imo. Yes, he could flame out but for half a season he's flashed all-star potential. He's the prototype the Brewers are trying to acquire so unless it's a Blake Snell type in return I'm not interested.

 

There's still a whole lot of swing and miss in his game but if he progresses in that one area he could be a All-Star. Even if he doesn't improve in that area there's still plenty to like.

[chuckiehacks]

I don't think there's any chance they trade Broxton this off-season. Partly because of his short track record, but mostly because he's coming off a broken wrist, which can wreak havoc on hitting, particularly bat speed (Rickie Weeks nods in agreement).

[reillymcshane]

**Completely Irrelevant Comment**

 

Every time I see one of these "Trading x" posts, it makes me think of the "Killing x" book series by Bill O'Reilly. (Which are really good, regardless of how you feel about him)

 

 

Agreed.

That's bizarre. i always thought the same thing. Glad I'm not crazy.

[adambr2]

Given how good he has looked since changing his stance and how controllable he is, I would honestly need a top 20 overall MLB prospect to move Broxton right now, and even then it would depend who it was.

 

I know no one is going to give that for him, but with the possibilities with him right now and with 6 years cheap control I see no reason for Stearns to sell short on him.

[Greenleaf1]

I would want a package similar to what we got for Lucroy to even CONSIDER trading Broxton at this point. The guy clearly has perennial all star potential at this point and this is the first year where we're really going to see if he's likely to hit that potential. I would so much rather that he get that chance with us over some other team.

 

Guys like Broxton breaking out are what we're going to need in order to win a WS, so I don't think I'd really be entertaining any offers unless the return was way more than any team is ever going to be offering for a relatively unproven player.

[pacopete4]

If trading Broxton meant getting our next Ace to go along with Hader, I'm all for it.

[adambr2]

If trading Broxton meant getting our next Ace to go along with Hader, I'm all for it.

 

But there's the problem, no one is going to give that for him. They'll point to his first half last year and his lack of being a big time prospect coming up, and we'll point to how good he's been after the change in his swing.

 

There's going to be such a gap in the perceived value of Broxton by us compared to anyone else right now that I think he's about the least likely guy on the roster to be shipped out anytime soon.

 

Basically would take Kopech or Giloto from the Sox and they won't do that.