Some Brewers projections - 2017

[yfinn6]

Yeah, the comps are always interesting. Villar as Tony Phillips, yes please! Travis Shaw as Joe Dillon, ugh. Keon Broxton as Chris Dickerson, please no. Chris Carter as Rob Deer, duh. Zach Davies as Storm Davis, Storm Davies? Brandon Woodruff as Ben Hendrickson, covers eyes.

 

Good grief, that's a name I had almost been able to forget.

[reillymcshane]

Yeah, the comps are always interesting. Villar as Tony Phillips, yes please! Travis Shaw as Joe Dillon, ugh. Keon Broxton as Chris Dickerson, please no. Chris Carter as Rob Deer, duh. Zach Davies as Storm Davis, Storm Davies? Brandon Woodruff as Ben Hendrickson, covers eyes.

 

Good grief, that's a name I had almost been able to forget.

Careful. Ben's dad might come after you.

[yfinn6]

The highlight of Ben Hendrickson's brief MLB career was most certainly his dad posting on Brewerfan. I only wish I would have seen them in real-time. I believe a poster shared a link or a part of them a few years ago.

[reillymcshane]

The highlight of Ben Hendrickson's brief MLB career was most certainly his dad posting on Brewerfan. I only wish I would have seen them in real-time. I believe a poster shared a link or a part of them a few years ago.

He would send private messages to people. I got one. And it was for the weirdest things. I said something like, "I think Hendrickson is best as a starter as he relies on his curveball and I think he's best when he gets into a groove." It was pretty harmless, but the guy PMed me saying Ben would be good as a reliever and I didn't know what I was talking about, etc. It was very strange because I didn't know who he was at the time.

 

He wasn't super rude to me - but I've heard some people got some really combative messages.

[gregmag]

It's been a long time, but wasn't Hendrickson kind of a soft tosser? If the Woodruff-Hendrickson comparison is purely statistical, then we may have exactly the kind of information (about how the talent that creates the stats is likely to translate to MLB) most likely to cast doubt on the projection.

 

BTW, I love projections. We just need to know what they are and aren't, and accordingly how to use, question, and supplement them.

[Jenkins5]

There is zero chance Woodruff turns into Ben Hendrickson.... Maybe a Neggy or Rogers ( even though both were more injury related). Ben topped out low 90s and was crafty. Woodruff tops out at 99 I've read.

 

I remember his dad being on here, never got any messages but I was very high on Ben. It was nice though that his dad did more than just sit here & talk up his son. He discussed the system as a fan as well. Not a homer type poster like you'd expect out of a parent on a site like this.

 

My favorite poster ever was probably coach! He was outstanding and Angel Salome was a top prospect we all loved so it was great to have this inside info on him! Def with what all was going on at the end of his time here! I was more Salome over Lucroy back in those days. Two examples why I do not work in front office lol

 

Woodruff is such a mystery. He legit could be one of those guys who comes "out of nowhere" to be a top frontline guy.

 

Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Lopez, Ortiz could all be in rotation by 2018 if he cleared space.... That is exciting!

[yfinn6]

It's been a long time, but wasn't Hendrickson kind of a soft tosser? If the Woodruff-Hendrickson comparison is purely statistical, then we may have exactly the kind of information (about how the talent that creates the stats is likely to translate to MLB) most likely to cast doubt on the projection.

 

BTW, I love projections. We just need to know what they are and aren't, and accordingly how to use, question, and supplement them.

 

I believe Hendrickson sat around 90-92 (at best), or maybe it was even slower than that. Wasn't his out pitch supposed to be a big 12-6 curveball? Problem was, he could never throw it for a strike, and it was really slow (not THAT huge of a problem, plenty of pitchers have slow curveballs). I also don't think there was a big MPH difference from his curve to his fastball - which was pretty lifeless.

 

I remember watching him pitch in MLB and, aside from falling behind every hitter, I wondered how he was ever going to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. It was ugly.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't understand why anyone (not saying anyone recently in this thread is) should be surprised that the Brewers may very well be a bottom 5 team in 2017. Some of the best players from 2016 are gone, including a star catcher and the top 3 arms in the pen. Sure there are some names that could enjoy breakout years, but there's also guys who aren't likely to replicate their 2016 success. I don't see enough reinforcements on the way this year to indicate even a higher win total than last year. It's possible, but I also can understand why the projections are coming in under our W/L from last year.

 

Improvement in a rebuild isn't always evident in a incremental increase in your W/L total. Just because we are getting closer to our end goal than we were a year ago doesn't mean that we're going to have a better MLB team this year than we had last year.

 

If they just sit around and continue to trot players out who are failing, I'd agree with you that it's quite possibly bottom 5 team, but I don't expect that to happen. If Broxton's 2nd half was a mirage, then Brinson will replace him. Perez is around to fill in anywhere for a position hit with injury or poor performance. If any of the starters on opening day aren't performing, there will be any number of arms to choose from as a replacement. Likely 3 of the 5 starters on opening day still will have options. Whoever the other two are, between Anderson, Peralta, Milone and Garza can be discarded without hesitation. The bullpen for 2017 isn't fully in place yet.

 

There's plenty of reasons to believe that there will be enough improvements to offset the downgrade at catcher too. Santana missed most of last year. CF looks completely different than it did a year ago. The lineup has better balance and much more depth to it. Can they still make it better between now and opening day? Absolutely as they have pieces that can be moved.

[reillymcshane]

It's been a long time, but wasn't Hendrickson kind of a soft tosser? If the Woodruff-Hendrickson comparison is purely statistical, then we may have exactly the kind of information (about how the talent that creates the stats is likely to translate to MLB) most likely to cast doubt on the projection.

 

BTW, I love projections. We just need to know what they are and aren't, and accordingly how to use, question, and supplement them.

 

I believe Hendrickson sat around 90-92 (at best), or maybe it was even slower than that. Wasn't his out pitch supposed to be a big 12-6 curveball? Problem was, he could never throw it for a strike, and it was really slow (not THAT huge of a problem, plenty of pitchers have slow curveballs). I also don't think there was a big MPH difference from his curve to his fastball - which was pretty lifeless.

 

I remember watching him pitch in MLB and, aside from falling behind every hitter, I wondered how he was ever going to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. It was ugly.

You're correct - Hendrickson had a nasty curveball. When it was working, it was a thing of beauty. Too bad it didn't work that often.

[CheezWizHed]

Yep, 90 MPH FB, hammer curve and control in the MiLB level. Control eluded him at the MLB level, which is death to a 90MPH pitcher.

 

Coach was cool at first, but he was an ultimate homer. Salome was going to be the greatest of all time! Well, in coach's eyes anyway. But the insider info is always nice.

 

I'm interested in seeing Woodruff. Seems like we keep hearing that he hits 95-98 regularly. Then most scouting reports have him in the low 90s (maybe why the BH comp comes in).

 

Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Lopez, Ortiz could all be in rotation by 2018 if he cleared space.... That is exciting!

 

A lot needs to go right for these guys yet this year for this to happen, but its certainly exciting to see some P prospects at the brink.

[FVBrewerFan]

Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Lopez, Ortiz could all be in rotation by 2018 if he cleared space.... That is exciting!

 

Add Taylor Williams to that list. Looked really good by all accounts in Fall ball, full velo back on his FB and had control of all pitches. At his age, they're going to fast track him. And it shouldn't take long, remember he was on the verge of being called out when he blew out his elbow.

 

Also wouldn't surprise me if Ponce gets an opportunity before Ortiz, just because of age. Throw in Nelson and Peralta (maybe even Guerra yet) and you're talking about 10 guys who could have a legit chance to start in 2018. But since quantity does not always mean quality, I am guardedly optimistic.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not to be a downer, but Taylor Williams much like Devin Williams, has 174.2 Professional IP total going back to 2013....4 seasons' time. Devin has 287.1 IP in same timeframe but never more than 100IP in a season. These guys are not ML callups soon for all of 2017 easily and very little if any for 2018 unless put in the bullpen.

[And That]

I'd be a little surprised to see Taylor Williams back in the rotation full time. With all his arm problems, do the Brewers want to press their luck on ramping up his innings and slowing his development by having him try to refine a changeup? I would think they would prefer to have him air it out over shorter bursts. His FB/SL combination should work great in the bullpen.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, that's possible. Obviously we have no idea what he's physically able to do, but TJ has actually been a positive for many pitchers. I don't expect him in the 2017 rotation, no, but 2018 is definitely possible if his wing is sound. They will need to ramp up his innings, sure, but they can always shut him down early.

[Jenkins5]

While Taylor Williams could be a nice starter, with all our depth and his arm history, I'd bit the bullet and just put in the bullpen. He'd be able to fast track quick to Milwaukee. It is a similar case with Thornburg. Thorny could have been a really nice starter. Still think he was the better of the two between him and Nelson. However, there wasn't a spot for him and he excelled as late inning reliever. Williams has the arm and Fastball/Slider combo to be a really good back end of the bullpen arm! He is more needed there than in the rotation.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would be fine with Williams in the BP, Ponce too for that matter. Not sure if his arm will hold up as a starter. And nothing says they can't start in the bullpen and be moved to the rotation at some point if they're capable, makes sense at the time, etc.

[CheezWizHed]

I was thinking the same about Williams and the BP. Seems like he could move up quickly if they moved him to the pen. And be a pretty high level arm there also.

[sveumrules]

Jeff Sullivan takes a pretty interesting look at how teams projected to win less than 70 games (as the Brewers currently are) have fared over the last dozen or so years...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/how-much-hope-do-the-bad-teams-have/

[Ennder]

Statistically speaking there was no reason to think Hendrickson would be good. His 2004 season in Indianapolis must be why people think he could be good when he actually posted a decent K/BB% but the rest of his minor league career looked like future failure. Not enough K's, too many BB's, too many hard hit balls. I never understood why anyone believed he would be good, I was praying he would manage to be a #6 SP as a future. He is the poster boy for why judging pitchers by ERA is such an awful way to go about it because none of his stats ever predicted a good pitcher.

[3and2Fastball]

Jeff Sullivan takes a pretty interesting look at how teams projected to win less than 70 games (as the Brewers currently are) have fared over the last dozen or so years...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/how-much-hope-do-the-bad-teams-have/

 

 

Good article, I especially like the last line "I’ll pick the Brewers, and live with it."

 

I dunno, call me crazy but I think the Crew will be pretty good this year, i.e. better than expected, possibly all the way to 80 wins. I guess it depends on the pitching, of course, but MLB is trending towards younger, athletic, versatile players and the Brewers have that in bunches of talent. Would it shock me if Arcia, Villar, Broxton, Santana, Shaw & Perez are all better than they were last year and better than projected? Not at all. And if "old man" Braun can hit like he did last year, this team could surprise some people.

 

At any rate I think they'll be an entertaining team to watch & cheer for. Here's hoping Hader becomes an ace

[adambr2]

Jeff Sullivan takes a pretty interesting look at how teams projected to win less than 70 games (as the Brewers currently are) have fared over the last dozen or so years...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/how-much-hope-do-the-bad-teams-have/

 

 

Good article, I especially like the last line "I’ll pick the Brewers, and live with it."

 

I dunno, call me crazy but I think the Crew will be pretty good this year, i.e. better than expected, possibly all the way to 80 wins. I guess it depends on the pitching, of course, but MLB is trending towards younger, athletic, versatile players and the Brewers have that in bunches of talent. Would it shock me if Arcia, Villar, Broxton, Santana, Shaw & Perez are all better than they were last year and better than projected? Not at all. And if "old man" Braun can hit like he did last year, this team could surprise some people.

 

At any rate I think they'll be an entertaining team to watch & cheer for. Here's hoping Hader becomes an ace

 

I've been on record as saying I think the Brewers will be worse than the 73 wins they posted last year. With that said, if I look at the ceilings on this team, I can see what gives people hope. IF Braun doesn't fall off. IF Villar and 2nd half Broxton are the real deal If Nelson and Peralta can put it together, if Guerra and Davies are legit, if Hader, Woodruff, and Brinson can come up and help immediately. If Thames can do half of what he did in Korea and Arcia breaks out.

 

There are so many question marks, but there are some great ceilings on some of these guys. If you figure from the easier posts that about 4% of teams with 70ish win projections will blow that away and make the playoffs -- hey its not much of a chance, but it's a chance. And I can see why people think this team has the mold to be a team like that.

[stalton]

Would it be fair to say that (generally speaking of course) that Melvin worried more about the floor than the ceiling and Stearns is showing more importance to ceiling than floor? I feel with DM, our range was rather narrow, but with DS our possible outcomes runs a bigger chunk of the spectrum.

[reillymcshane]

Would it be fair to say that (generally speaking of course) that Melvin worried more about the floor than the ceiling and Stearns is showing more importance to ceiling than floor? I feel with DM, our range was rather narrow, but with DS our possible outcomes runs a bigger chunk of the spectrum.

I don't know if 'floor' and 'ceiling' are the right words - but I do think that Melvin operated a little more 'safe' than Stearns has done.

 

Now, I think some of that is because Stearns has basically been given a nod to do whatever is needed - while Melvin had teams that - for better or worse - were too good to tear down, but not good enough to win. Sort of of perennial .500 teams.

 

Thus, I think Melvin thought more short term - and therefore, less risk. He took known quantities - even bad known quantities - and put them out there year after year (Overbay, Yuni, etc., etc.). He signed mediocre veteran starters to big contracts (Suppan, Wolf, Garza, Lohse) who could certainly help the team, but weren't going to carry them over the top.

 

Whether all of that was just Doug operating the way he felt was right - or a refusal to take risks - who knows. But I think the circumstances are pretty different - and Stearns has been given the go ahead take some risks. So I think he's definitely got a wider range of outcomes in his arsenal.

[Ennder]

They had very different situations so it is hard to compare Melvin to Stearns. Melvin's goal was to get fans in the seats to make sure the new park worked out. Pretty much every single good young player under Melvin was brought up a season too early just to get fans in the seats with hope. The team had gone so long without a winning team that once they got good his direction was to keep the window open as long as he could.

[homer]

The highlight of Ben Hendrickson's brief MLB career was most certainly his dad posting on Brewerfan. I only wish I would have seen them in real-time. I believe a poster shared a link or a part of them a few years ago.

 

It was truly an epic night in the history of the site.