Some Brewers projections - 2017

[Ennder]

I simply take issue with a projection system that seems to be extremely conservative when it comes to players with limited data to draw on. In my opinion, such a projection system has very little utility. Based on this, it would seem inexperienced players will rarely project well. I would find more value in a projection system that would occasionally project someone such as a Keon Broxton to break out. It appears as though FanGraphs projects no young Brewers' players to show significant improvement. I'll admit, I'm a relative newbie to sabermetrics, so maybe I'm just ignorant to the methodology behind such projection systems. I still maintain a strong nostalgic feeling for stats on the back of baseball cards, dating back to my childhood, but I am open to learning.

 

 

The fact is very few young players actually take big steps up so conservative is reality. It is more likely that some of our inexperienced players flame out than they break out. I mean these are based on nothing but math and numbers so they aren't going to be terribly useful when it comes to small sample players.

 

The way they build projections is usually building a range of outcomes so part of the projection includes the times a player breaks out or totally collapses. They only show a weighted mean of the overall projection. If you look at one like baseballprospectus they actually give breakout values so you can see which players are higher upside etc. They just charge for these fuller projections.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't understand why people think they're going to be better than last year. The 2016 team for much of the season had Lucroy at catcher, Jeffress, Smith, and Thornburg locking things down at the end of games, and the NL home run leader. The bullpen was a clear strength. Sure new arms could produce decent results but it's hard to expect dominance out of the 2017 pen. And if Braun is moved, which I still think will happen at some point, that's a whole lot of talent cast off from last year's team. Sure there are talented replacements on the way but it would be misguided to assume they're all going to play to their potential right away. And it certainly wouldn't surprise me if guys like Villar and Broxton still have some growing pains to work through. I really think 2017 is going to be the bottom out year.

People thinking the Brewers will be worse as a result of no Lucroy, Thornburg, Jeffress, Smith, Carter (HR champ) is logical. It makes sense on the surface but there are a lot of factors I look at when thinking they'll be better. The rotation as a unit should be better than last year. Going from a defensive IF of Hill/Perez, Villar, Scooter, Carter to Shaw, Arcia, Villar, Thames is an upgrade at every single position (the right side of the IF is a huge upgrade). Defense matters greatly and it gets overlooked far too often. Anyone we put behind the dish is a downgrade from Lucroy. However, the Brewers weren't terrible after he was traded and Maldy is below average as a starter (would be terrible if his arm/framing weren't so good). Susac should win that starting job and if he's anything remotely close to what he's done in the minors you'll get a good offensive catcher and an avg defensive one with Bandy being better defensively, supposedly, of the two. Braun is Braun. I'm expecting Broxton and Santana to be solid players - 800+ OPS offensively while having good on base numbers. They're talented and have flashed what their potential is. Our #4-6 OF received almost half the OF ABs last year. That's not good. The pen takes a step back as Jeffress/Thornburg were great. Smith was replaceable with his first half last year. He wasn't his typical self. Barnes will play a much more significant role as will Knebel. Both are young and have a lot of potential to be very, very good. There should be 5 guys back in the pen so mixing in a couple other strong shouldn't be an issue. Lets not forget that Thornburg blew 8 of 21 save opportunities. if this pen closes that gap there's additional Ws. The young guys got some good PT last year and that experience will only help moving forward.

 

I was with you until the comment about Thornburg who allowed 2 ER all year to division opponents in 30 innings, including nothing to the Cubs and Cardinals. He's a huge loss as he was one of the few difference makers on the roster. With him they were a real threat to surpass last year's win total. As it stands now I see a significant number of winnable games squandered in the 9th. There's still time to bolster the pen though with a solid veteran acquisition.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yah, the Brewers are a pretty tough team to project. Their only two starting pitchers to put together two solid halves were rookies, their bullpen is getting remade, outside of Braun they don't have a lot of experience on offense, Thames is pretty much impossible to project under a stats-based model and Fangraphs themselves has written so many articles on how bizarre Broxton's statistical profile is that it wouldn't have surprised me if there had just been an NA next to his name with an asterisk leading to a footnote saying that trying to run his numbers caused their computer to start on fire.

 

And you know what, I'm perfectly fine with that. During a rebuild is the time to be high-risk, high-reward. There's no point in raising the floor from 65 to 70 wins if it doesn't change or lowers the ceiling.

[markedman5]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-potential-breakout-slugger/

[JohnBriggs12]

Interesting that Jeff Zimmerman, the fantasy guru on fangraphs projects Thames as the 21st best first basemen, between Brandon Belt and C.J. Cron. That's a far cry from their stats projections, considering Belt's posted back to back OPS seasons of .834 and .868 playing in a pitcher's park.

[PaulLeoMolitor]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-potential-breakout-slugger/

 

Thanks for sharing. It was an interesting read, identifying a couple of Brewers' youngsters that have potential to break out. In my opinion, that's one thing that could propel the Brewers to an overachieving season... a couple of players like Santana or Broxton having breakout seasons.

[reillymcshane]

As a note, Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs said to ignore the Eric Thames steamer projection. He said they literally don't have one for him yet.

 

Sullivan slots him as right around league average - maybe a bit higher.

 

Jeff Sullivan: I have him mentally slotted around 110-115. Ignore what it says right now on the depth charts; Steamer just doesn’t have a projection for him yet

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-122316/

[clancyphile]

Blown saves can be deceiving for sure. At the end of the day it's still a blown save though. We were in position to win that game (some we did some we didn't). I think anyone who covers the 7th-8th inning consistently shouldn't have an issue with the occasional close.

 

I wouldn't have Knebel close. Barnes or a new veteran

 

Suter?

 

Didn't allow a run in any relief appearances. If not the rotation, why not try him as the closer?

[Jenkins5]

Blown saves can be deceiving for sure. At the end of the day it's still a blown save though. We were in position to win that game (some we did some we didn't). I think anyone who covers the 7th-8th inning consistently shouldn't have an issue with the occasional close.

 

I wouldn't have Knebel close. Barnes or a new veteran

 

Suter?

 

Didn't allow a run in any relief appearances. If not the rotation, why not try him as the closer?

 

Not that they can't be successful but I'm not a fan of closers who toss 87-89....give me an explosive arm. Suter is solid middle relief guy.

[Jenkins5]

The forgotten man not mentioned in rotation or pull pen, what is plan for Jungmann? He compete for a bullpen spot or keep him starting? Can't send him to Springs.

[MKE81]

I would never attempt to put Suter in the rotation or as a closer. His 12ip in relief in the 5-6th innings is a small sample size and far cry from the closer role, especially when factoring in his 83-85 fastball. I'm all for Suter being given a shot in that same reliever role as last year as I think he can be effective. That's where he'd earn his keep.

 

Briggs, Thornburg was great and even better vs Cubs/STL, but that still doesn't negate the fact he blew 8 out of 21 saves. If he was still a Brewer I'd expect him to regress. Barnes, Knebel, Torres, Marinez should all be holding down spots leaving 3 open. I'd assume Magnifico takes one and Stearns adds a vet. The bullpen won't be as good overall but they'll still be good - we've had a pretty good pen for a while now with moving parts every year.

 

Thames is going to surprise people and I think Shaw will too. FanGraphs having Broxton all over the place makes sense given they bury their heads in their models instead of watching him play and factoring in other variables last year - being his first season in MLB he was clearly pressing, being too tentative at the plate putting himself in deep holes every AB. By the time he came back up in the 2nd half he was much more confident - relaxed yet aggressive at the plate. Dropping his hands played a role in his success but models don't account for anything I just listed. The player Broxton will be is much closer to his 2nd half than 1st. 500+ AB of Braun/Broxton/Santana will be important.

[ebmackenzie]

I disagree about DMagnifico; I think he is more in line for the CS closer job. I would rather see inning eaters Cravy or AWilkerson (0.947 at AA Portland and 1.083 at AAA Pawsox) get a shot rather than DMagnifico. Also in addition to those 4, I would add LOOGY Suter or Milone and maybe Jungmann's two pitch arsenal or Wily P's heavy fastball.

 

Hader, LOrtiz, Taylor Williams, JLopez and maybe Woodruff keep me thinking that some starters will be moved to the pen or outta town.

[reillymcshane]

Steamer released its projection for Thames: .272 BA, .350 OBP, .515 SLG%, wRC +124, 2.5 WAR

 

That's pretty great - and Dave Cameron talks quite a bit about Thames' different projections:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-that-eric-thames-projection/

[adambr2]

That literally just added 4+ wins to our team projection I would imagine, haha.

[brewmann04]

I think he needs to stay as a starter IMO

[trwi7]

I would be shocked if he's anywhere close to that.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would be shocked if he's anywhere close to that.

 

You base that on what?

 

Kang's posted almost identical numbers to those since joining the Bucs: .273/.355/.483 and he's done it in a pitcher's park. Thames' KBO numbers were a smidge better than Kang's and he'll be playing in a hitter's park.

[Mass Haas]

VIDEO: Fantasy perspective on Keon Broxton

[sveumrules]

ZIPS projections released for Brewers today at Fangraphs...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

 

Villar 256/332/410

Braun 282/343/477

Arcia 245/289/379

Broxton 216/297/408

Domingo 243/333/441

Brinson 254/294/458

Thames 247/321/493

 

Davies 3.99 ERA/3.95 FIP

Hader 3.90 ERA/3.85 FIP

Guerra 4.24 ERA/4.54 FIP

Barnes 3.52 ERA/3.42 FIP

Knebel 3.65 ERA/3.61 FIP

[brewcrewdue80]

ZIPS projections released for Brewers today at Fangraphs...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

 

Villar 256/332/410

Braun 282/343/477

Arcia 245/289/379

Broxton 216/297/408

Domingo 243/333/441

Brinson 254/294/458

Thames 247/321/493

 

Davies 3.99 ERA/3.95 FIP

Hader 3.90 ERA/3.85 FIP

Guerra 4.24 ERA/4.54 FIP

Barnes 3.52 ERA/3.42 FIP

Knebel 3.65 ERA/3.61 FIP

 

If that happened this is a 60 win team. Far too many under 300OB bats and little power. So Thames is best hitter on the team? Obviously a number of players missing from your list but based on what im seeing above. Not going to be a season to watch.

[sveumrules]

The 2017 projected standings on Fangraphs currently have the bottom five projected as SD 66, MKE 67, CIN 69, PHI 70 & CWS 71 wins before a small gap up to the Twins 75 & Braves 76. I believe those projections are based on STEAMER alone as ZIPS hasn't come out for all teams yet. Once it does I believe FG blends the two for their final preseason projections.

 

Thames would be the second best hitter behind Braun with that ZIPS projection, which could well end up being the case. I think Thames, Santana, Villar & Broxton all have a pretty decent chance to end up in the 110-120 wRC+ range when all is said & done.

[stalton]

Man those projections are brutal. Only a slight improvement from Orlando, Broxton falling even from his full year stats, Junior as our worst pitcher. Yikes! I second that those stats equal a horrible team.

[CheezWizHed]

ZIPS projections released for Brewers today at Fangraphs...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

 

Villar 256/332/410

Braun 282/343/477

Arcia 245/289/379

Broxton 216/297/408

Domingo 243/333/441

Brinson 254/294/458

Thames 247/321/493

 

Davies 3.99 ERA/3.95 FIP

Hader 3.90 ERA/3.85 FIP

Guerra 4.24 ERA/4.54 FIP

Barnes 3.52 ERA/3.42 FIP

Knebel 3.65 ERA/3.61 FIP

 

Ryan Braun's #1 comp for this year is Dusty Baker. I sure hope he doesn't have any say in pitching decisions...

 

And its probably not a great sign that our current pitching staff comps out similar to many former Brewer pitchers:

Brandon Woodruff -> Ben Hendrickson

Wily Peralta -> Wes Obermueller

Corey Knebel -> Francisco Cordero

Ryan Webb -> Chuck Crim

[adambr2]

I don't understand why anyone (not saying anyone recently in this thread is) should be surprised that the Brewers may very well be a bottom 5 team in 2017. Some of the best players from 2016 are gone, including a star catcher and the top 3 arms in the pen. Sure there are some names that could enjoy breakout years, but there's also guys who aren't likely to replicate their 2016 success. I don't see enough reinforcements on the way this year to indicate even a higher win total than last year. It's possible, but I also can understand why the projections are coming in under our W/L from last year.

 

Improvement in a rebuild isn't always evident in a incremental increase in your W/L total. Just because we are getting closer to our end goal than we were a year ago doesn't mean that we're going to have a better MLB team this year than we had last year.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, the comps are always interesting. Villar as Tony Phillips, yes please! Travis Shaw as Joe Dillon, ugh. Keon Broxton as Chris Dickerson, please no. Chris Carter as Rob Deer, duh. Zach Davies as Storm Davis, Storm Davies? Brandon Woodruff as Ben Hendrickson, covers eyes.