Some Brewers projections - 2017

[adambr2]

From Fangraphs - haven't dove into the pitching staff yet but here is the lineup :

 

Villar: .730 OPS, 1 WAR

Broxton: .682 OPS, 1 WAR

Braun: .837 OPS, 1.9 WAR

Thames: .626 OPS, -1.8 WAR

Shaw: .741 OPS, 1.1 WAR

Susac: .707 OPS, 0.9 WAR

Arcia: .666 OPS, 0.3 WAR

Santana: .787 OPS, 0.9 WAR

 

I really hope our scouts are right and the computers are wrong, because if not, that's barely better than a AAA quality lineup.

 

For the record, most of it doesn't make much sense to me. I expect some dropoff from Villar offensively but figure on a little bit improved D if he sticks at 2nd. All in all, I'd be surprised if he was worse than a 2 WAR player.

 

Broxton...mostly the same. The guy played terrible baseball for all but about 6 weeks last year and still put up a 2.1 WAR.

 

Braun, some regression wouldn't surprise me but below 2...that would be tough.

 

Thames, I realize that it's tough to translate Korea to MLB stats, but I can't understand why they project him to be a complete disaster.

 

Shaw, Susac, and Santana I guess look pretty close to me. They're projecting basically zero progression from Arcia.

[pacopete4]

Lol, I needed a good chuckle today. Good stuff.

[JosephC]

They also have Tommy Milone as the third most valuable pitcher on the staff (1.2 WAR behind Guerra's 1.9 and Davies 1.6).

 

Among the hitters the Villar projection is the most questionable. I could see Thames flopping but it's hard to see him being .626 OPS bad. It seems like Shaw is about the fairest evaluation of the bunch, but he's blessed because he is a product of the AL East and therefore will get the benefit of a doubt.

[adambr2]

Lol, I needed a good chuckle today. Good stuff.

 

They pegged the Brewers at 71 wins last year, and the Brewers won 73.

 

This year they have the Brewers pegged at 64 wins, worst in baseball.

 

Laugh all you want but they were 2 games off on their projection last year. Obviously some guys are going to outperform their projections, that's the whole reason it's just a 'projection', and when PECOTA releases theirs I'll post that to compare. But they aren't just meaningless opinionated drivel, they're based on data.

[Eye Black]

I could see Thames flopping but it's hard to see him being .626 OPS bad.

I agree, I have fairly low expectations for Thames (probably more pessimistic than most), but a .626 OPS from a major league 1B getting regular at-bats would be a disaster. Seems like the floor should be closer to .675 (still terrible obviously).

 

Overall, the current roster does look like a mid-60's win team in my opinion.

[pacopete4]

Lol, I needed a good chuckle today. Good stuff.

 

They pegged the Brewers at 71 wins last year, and the Brewers won 73.

 

This year they have the Brewers pegged at 64 wins, worst in baseball.

 

Laugh all you want but they were 2 games off on their projection last year. Obviously some guys are going to outperform their projections, that's the whole reason it's just a 'projection', and when PECOTA releases theirs I'll post that to compare. But they aren't just meaningless opinionated drivel, they're based on data.

 

 

Oh I'll laugh alright. You mention they predicted last year to be 71 wins but don't mention how they never predicted Guerra to be our ace, Villar to be the best lead off hitter since Molitor, and Braun to just play like Ryan Braun does. And probably much, much more if we really wanted to look into it. They were wrong, no matter how you want to slice it.

[adambr2]

Lol, I needed a good chuckle today. Good stuff.

 

They pegged the Brewers at 71 wins last year, and the Brewers won 73.

 

This year they have the Brewers pegged at 64 wins, worst in baseball.

 

Laugh all you want but they were 2 games off on their projection last year. Obviously some guys are going to outperform their projections, that's the whole reason it's just a 'projection', and when PECOTA releases theirs I'll post that to compare. But they aren't just meaningless opinionated drivel, they're based on data.

 

 

Oh I'll laugh alright. You mention they predicted last year to be 71 wins but don't mention how they never predicted Guerra to be our ace, Villar to be the best lead off hitter since Molitor, and Braun to just play like Ryan Braun does. And probably much, much more if we really wanted to look into it. They were wrong, no matter how you want to slice it.

 

First of all, they just about nailed Braun's WAR projection. PECOTA actually overestimated him.

 

Secondly...

 

Of COURSE they were wrong about individual players. It's a PROJECTION. It doesn't mean this guy is going to do exactly this, and this guy is going to do exactly that. It's a best assumption based off a TON of data, not emotion.

 

You brought up Guerra and Villar, but last year they also way overestimated Flores, Cecchini, Santana, and even Arcia. Nelson too, I would almost certainly assume. That's how projections generally pan out. Some guys you miss high, some guys you miss low. Where did I ever imply that they just nailed it with every player? How in the world do you think they still came within 2 games on their cumulative projection if that wasn't how it worked, and they just underestimated our whole team?

[Ennder]

They are projections not predictions. They aren't really wrong. if you look at the full projections most likely Villar hit his 90th percentile projection. If you just study players careers the range of yearly outcomes is very large for most players, not very many show the same type of stats year after year. It is a very high variance sport.

[MrTPlush]

Projections can be a bit iffy. For inexperienced players accuracy will likely always be off.

[adambr2]

Yeah, younger players are less projectable than veterans.

 

My original point on this was simply Braun's WAR to try to illustrate why the rest of the league isn't nearly as bullish on him as we are just because he was good and somewhat healthy in 2016. But it's a slow time of year and I thought the entire roster and their projections is worthy of an offseason conversation.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

And with the 1st overall pick of the 2018 MLB first-year player draft the Milwaukee Brewers select...

[MKE81]

Cool, they pegged the Brewers with 71 wins last year - just like plenty of people on this board who haven't created analytical models.

 

Villar: .730 OPS, 1 WAR (so his OPS is dropping 20pts below what he did in 2015, which negates his massive improvement in 2016)

Broxton: .682 OPS, 1 WAR (Maldy put up 683 OPS this year - Broxton elevated his game after dropping his hands, that adjustment can be critical)

Braun: .837 OPS, 1.9 WAR (no. just no. he's done that once in his career and he was injured)

Thames: .626 OPS, -1.8 WAR (so he's -2 WAR below Carter while being better defensively? an OPS 60pts below Maldy lol. Thames has a 727 OPS overall (769/672) when he was 24-25 in MLB and he's a better hitter/state of mind now)

Shaw: .741 OPS, 1.1 WAR (maybe but i think more 770+)

Susac: .707 OPS, 0.9 WAR (disagree unless he's injured. his 666 OPS in 2015 he played the entire year with a wrist injury, and thumb injury too part of that, and ended up missing the final month+ on season ending DL because of it. if healthy it should be 770+)

Arcia: .666 OPS, 0.3 WAR (no idea given he's 22 and we'll see how he progresses)

Santana: .787 OPS, 0.9 WAR (his OPS essentially means he shows no improvement as a hitter even though he showed improvement from the beginning of the year, when healthy to the end when healthy)

 

Why is there a discussion over projection vs prediction. A projection is a forecast of a trend. On what planet do some of these projections make sense based on the definition of projection?

[And That]

Why is there a discussion over projection vs prediction. A projection is a forecast of a trend. On what planet do some of these projections make sense based on the definition of projection?

There's an important difference between a projection and a prediction. A projection is a hypothetical interpretation of existing data without assuming any specific level of certainty. A prediction is a projection, except that a prediction seeks to produce a level of certainty that a projection does not. For instance, financial professionals can get in a lot of hot water if they say they can predict something, whereas in certain situations they won't be held liable if they use the term projection. (And in some situations, they can't even do that, they have to forecast).

 

All of the various projection models out there - ZIPS, PECOTA, Marcel, etc., do not make a prediction of certainty at the player level. It would be virtually impossible to do that because there isn't enough data gathered within the course of a season for an individual player to make anything other than a vague guess at future outcomes. Those same models do aim for some certainty on league-wide production, and generally get that more or less right, and could probably be considered a prediction at that higher level. Team-level projections fall somewhere in between, and I guess it could be argued that seasonal win totals are predictions, though I doubt the creators of the analytics would say that.

 

A forecast, as I usually see the term used, is using data that occurred in the past and assuming it will continue along undisturbed in the future. No hypotheticals and no interpretation like projections (and therefor predictions). Strictly speaking, a forecast would actually probably be more useful on the individual player level, i.e. Braun did this last year, so let's assume he'll do it again next year. For established players, this is going to be pretty accurate most of the time.

[ebmackenzie]

Brew 4 U...you are my witness...I said my 65 before I saw this but Fangraphs is pretty much my thinking...I am not convinced of Thames or Arcia progression...and what if these guys get injured?

 

Pitching will have more of a say in the record than our lineup...and I am not thrilled with it, but could see some gains by Jungmann, a Hader push, and ZDavies having an even better year.

 

(edit) Keon should have a much better year...should have mentioned that.

 

I know I am still talking about predictions, not projections, but the two go hand-in-hand. Does anyone think that MIN fans saw a sub-60 win team this time last year? Fan is short for fanatic and fanboy expectations are usually off.

[pacopete4]

Brew 4 U...you are my witness...I said my 65 before I saw this but Fangraphs is pretty much my thinking...I am not convinced of Thames or Arcia progression...and what if these guys get injured?

 

Pitching will have more of a say in the record than our lineup...and I am not thrilled with it, but could see some gains by Jungmann, a Hader push, and ZDavies having an even better year.

 

(edit) Keon should have a much better year...should have mentioned that.

 

I know I am still talking about predictions, not projections, but the two go hand-in-hand. Does anyone think that MIN fans saw a sub-60 win team this time last year? Fan is short for fanatic and fanboy expectations are usually off.

 

I'll be your witness. But I don't think thinking this team can win 75 games is being too much of a homer.

[rickh150]

Brew 4 U...you are my witness...I said my 65 before I saw this but Fangraphs is pretty much my thinking...I am not convinced of Thames or Arcia progression...and what if these guys get injured?

 

Pitching will have more of a say in the record than our lineup...and I am not thrilled with it, but could see some gains by Jungmann, a Hader push, and ZDavies having an even better year.

 

(edit) Keon should have a much better year...should have mentioned that.

 

I know I am still talking about predictions, not projections, but the two go hand-in-hand. Does anyone think that MIN fans saw a sub-60 win team this time last year? Fan is short for fanatic and fanboy expectations are usually off.

 

I'll be your witness. But I don't think thinking this team can win 75 games is being too much of a homer.

 

In this division....... kind of.

[pacopete4]

Brew 4 U...you are my witness...I said my 65 before I saw this but Fangraphs is pretty much my thinking...I am not convinced of Thames or Arcia progression...and what if these guys get injured?

 

Pitching will have more of a say in the record than our lineup...and I am not thrilled with it, but could see some gains by Jungmann, a Hader push, and ZDavies having an even better year.

 

(edit) Keon should have a much better year...should have mentioned that.

 

I know I am still talking about predictions, not projections, but the two go hand-in-hand. Does anyone think that MIN fans saw a sub-60 win team this time last year? Fan is short for fanatic and fanboy expectations are usually off.

 

I'll be your witness. But I don't think thinking this team can win 75 games is being too much of a homer.

 

In this division....... kind of.

 

Won 73 a year ago. Pit and STL didn't get any better, maybe worse. CIN still sucks. It's not out of reach.

[trwi7]

I'll be your witness. But I don't think thinking this team can win 75 games is being too much of a homer.

 

I'd definitely take the under on 75 wins but I don't think it's impossible. If Thames turns out to be better than I think he will be. If Arcia hits a little. If Villar repeats his season. If Guerra repeats his season. If Broxton's second half is the real Broxton. If Davies stays as is or improves. If we get the Peralta of the second half instead of the first half. If Garza pitches like he did late in the season. If Nelson pitches like he did early in the season. If Torres repeats last season. If Susac can be a 2-3 win starting catcher. If Braun repeats last season.

 

Then yeah, they could win 75-80 games. What are the chances that all of those things happen though?

[Ennder]

The offense can win 75 games as seen by those projections which have them at 5.3 WAR which isn't awful. The pitching is the issue, if the pitching can be somewhere near league average which I doubt it will be, they can do 75 games. It just isn't super likely.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Link

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/

[ebmackenzie]

So my point is (and I feel this way about the Packers too) if not the playoffs then don't you want the best pick available? The Bregmans and Correas are not to be had picking #9~14 every year.

[AKCheesehead]

Intentionally tanking for a draft pick should never enter into your mind. There is just no place for that, and you don't want that kind of mentality ever to strike the team. If we suck, we suck, but we will not suck on purpose for the sake of drafting higher.

[adambr2]

I guess I'm just a little surprised how bad we are 'projected' to be. Now we are clearly still in a rebuilding mode and I've said all along I think our 2017 win total might be a little step back from 2016. I don't see any way we are relevant again before 2019.

 

However to regress 9 games would be a bit of a disappointment. Although if we end up with the top overall pick and a franchise type prospect happens to be available at #1, that would be a pretty important building block.

[pacopete4]

If this team can find any consistency out of its bullpen, they may be a bit surprising to most this season.

[adambr2]

If this team can find any consistency out of its bullpen, they may be a bit surprising to most this season.

 

I hope so, although the more I think about it I get where they're coming from. We won't have Lucroy for any of the season. Arguably our 3 best relievers from last season are gone. Braun may or may not be gone. The best hope for improvement we can count on will be the growth of our young players like Arcia, Villar, Broxton and Santana. If they can grow quickly and be better than expected, we may surprise some people. But if not, I get why you can't gut a 73 win team and not expect to regress some in the standings.

 

If I had to predict right now, I'd day this team wins 70 games next year. Obviously, there's a lot of offseason left.