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How do we add a FRANCHISE HITTER and/or AN ACE LEVEL PITCHER to our organization?


I'd find it really hard to see Ortiz in 2018 even part time. But Hader I understand. Guerra is doubtful just due to history and age. Now there's Woodruff as the potential Ortiz replacement in that projection. His breakout year last year, and with this July trade deadline, I think seeing him is possible in 2017 and then 2018 realistic to perform that way....At least believing his breakout is real and moving forward. I believe we're at a point where Nelson or Peralta are removed from starting and put in the bullpen. Jorge Lopez fits that potential if he doesn't regain form as a Starter by the trade deadline. This is why I'm not that concerned with the bullpen as made-up currently. Visually the depth truth to me is that you aren't going to sit on these types like Nelson, Peralta, Lopez, Jungmann on future development as Starters. There is a backload of SP prospects who are coming and forcing them to wait just won't happen.

That concern of Mark A. waiting for this rebuild to flourish on the ML field. You combat that by advancing the better talented pitching and move on from the ones no longer holding down a spot with starting. I'm sure there is a bullpen pickup coming before the season starts, just not that FA variety, but by waiver claim as Stearns has shown the ability to find talent that way. And I'll be honest. As 2017 season plays out and prospect talent or ML talent is sorted through. The depth in the OF sees a major piece moved such as Santana, Broxton or Brinson along with other types and acquire someone the team needs to attain 2018 competitiveness. There is no way this rebuild takes to 2020. And I'd be very surprised that it takes in to 2019. This is happening in 2018 and there are moves to be made that could make the rebuild a reality before the end of 2017, it just comes too late in the season to say they are winning in 2017.

 

I still think 2018 is still too early to count on anything close to contention. At this point this is still probably a 70-75 win team at best in 2017. Now reinforcements are on the way, and they'll start coming even faster in 2018 and 2019. But to count on a 10-15 win improvement over one season is basically banking on immediate production from most of those rookies and I think reality is there will be some growing pains.

 

I do think 2020 sounds about right when looking at a point where we could realistically look to contend for the division, but there are still too many variables at play to say for sure. If I had to pick an over/under win total for 2019 right now I'd say about 81 with a chance to contend for a wild card if things break right.

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I think we laid our foundation over the past year and a half, but 2017 is still a "let's see what we have in some players" year. It's hard to predict where we'll be in 2018 because we don't yet know what we have in some players. If guys like Villar and Broxton grow into the players they showed they have the talent to be, then we have a couple of All Stars we obtained for virtually nothing. If Peralta did "find himself" in the minors last year and can finally turn into the pitcher we hoped he would be, then he could be a #1/2 starter. Thames is a complete unknown for us pedestrians, who simply have to hope that Stearns and company found a gem. If he can be a mid-.800 OPS, good fielding 1B, then that would really solidify our team. We also have a lot of good pitching prospects, and as we all know, it's hard to project how pitching prospects will pan out.

 

So, if these guys play to their potential, we could certainly be in the playoff picture by 2018. If not, then we will have to wait a while longer. That's the "fun" of a rebuild. You're not banking on high-priced vets with long track records, but rather on younger, cheaper, talented guys who are still trying to prove themselves.

 

Personally, I think that if Braun is not traded, and we pick up a "second tier" veteran to be the closer, I think we have a good shot at being around a .500 team this year. Then, going into 2018, we will know more about what we have in some guys, will have more talent coming up from the minors, and will have a lot of free cash to spend on free agents to fill in any holes on the roster. With two Wild Card spots, that should be when we have a legitimate shot at playing winning baseball and being a playoff contender.

 

But, we have to let 2017 play out and see how some guys do before anyone can start making any kind of definitive statements about the future. Let's have fun watching these young, talented, athletic guys play.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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