How do we add a FRANCHISE HITTER and/or AN ACE LEVEL PITCHER to our organization?

[brewerfan82]

FYI - In case anyone else didn't realize this as well, it looks like those win projections were formulated on November 7th... (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/come-look-at-2017-projections-already/) So they were made before losing Thornburg and Maldonado, and adding Thames, Shaw, Bandy and Milone. Not sure that would change the projection much, especially with how poor the Thames projection is, but thought it was worth mentioning.

[CheezWizHed]

Thames is literally dead last of 594 batters at -1.8. Matt Davidson is the only other batter with -1.0 to be at or below -1.0 Corey Hart and Nate McClouth have a higher projection value, as does Adam Brett Walker.

 

[sarcasm]Resign Corey Hart![/sarcasm]

 

I wonder how they manage Thames' projection? Do they use the two years of MLB data then add zeros for the last three years? Or do they have some way of watering down the KBO numbers and use them (maybe as AA or AAA numbers)?

 

I would imagine that he is pretty hard to project. I'd expect a 700 OPS at a minimum and 800 at the max. I'd think 750 is a reasonable guess.

[Sixto]

It's not popular, but I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned, because it's the only true way for us to get help on a level playing field with other teams. Via rental. Sabathia and Greinke are the main examples. Some say Greinke wasn't a rental, but by my definition he was. Obviously the timing has to be more precise and the pieces have to be all in place, but the model is there and close to home, we tried it before. Obvious drawbacks as you mortgage some of your farm system, but unless we sign a billion dollar tv deal, that's what you have to do. Any other way just involves way too much luck for everything to come together at the same time. Looking back, it's pretty amazing that Braun Fielder Weeks Hardy etc all came up at the same time. Pretty unlikely that perfect storm happens again. In some way shape or form, we will eventually have to go all in which means a partial mortgage. We simply can't go toe to toe with the rich any other way

[Ennder]

It's not popular, but I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned, because it's the only true way for us to get help on a level playing field with other teams. Via rental. Sabathia and Greinke are the main examples. Some say Greinke wasn't a rental, but by my definition he was. Obviously the timing has to be more precise and the pieces have to be all in place, but the model is there and close to home, we tried it before. Obvious drawbacks as you mortgage some of your farm system, but unless we sign a billion dollar tv deal, that's what you have to do. Any other way just involves way too much luck for everything to come together at the same time. Looking back, it's pretty amazing that Braun Fielder Weeks Hardy etc all came up at the same time. Pretty unlikely that perfect storm happens again. In some way shape or form, we will eventually have to go all in which means a partial mortgage. We simply can't go toe to toe with the rich any other way

 

That is completely wrong. Plenty of mid range payroll teams have competed in the past 20 years and they didn't do it by simply mortgaging the future. The Brewers market may be low but their actual payroll range is mid range. That was Melvin's strategy and I was fine with it, but it isn't the only way for the team to find success.

[Sixto]

It's not popular, but I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned, because it's the only true way for us to get help on a level playing field with other teams. Via rental. Sabathia and Greinke are the main examples. Some say Greinke wasn't a rental, but by my definition he was. Obviously the timing has to be more precise and the pieces have to be all in place, but the model is there and close to home, we tried it before. Obvious drawbacks as you mortgage some of your farm system, but unless we sign a billion dollar tv deal, that's what you have to do. Any other way just involves way too much luck for everything to come together at the same time. Looking back, it's pretty amazing that Braun Fielder Weeks Hardy etc all came up at the same time. Pretty unlikely that perfect storm happens again. In some way shape or form, we will eventually have to go all in which means a partial mortgage. We simply can't go toe to toe with the rich any other way

 

That is completely wrong. Plenty of mid range payroll teams have competed in the past 20 years and they didn't do it by simply mortgaging the future. The Brewers market may be low but their actual payroll range is mid range. That was Melvin's strategy and I was fine with it, but it isn't the only way for the team to find success.

 

The question was how to add a franchise player.

As long as you bring it up though, I'm not holding my breath for us to win a World Series without a ton of luck along with adding a piece or two that involves at least a partial mortgage. It's too hard to bring up all the necessary guys at the correct time and then keep the window open long enough. All the pixie dust and unicorns in the world doesnt change that. Plenty of payroll vs World Series winner articles out there that give the facts.

[Ennder]

The highest WAR position players last year were.

 

Mike Trout - 25th pick (should have gone to the Brewers and we may have won a World Series if he did)

Kris Bryant - 2nd pick

Mookie Betts - 172nd pick

Josh Donaldson - 48th pick (FA sign)

Corey Seager - 18th pick

Jose Altuve - unsigned free agent

Manny Machado - 4th pick

Francisco Lindor - 8th pick

Freddie Freeman - 78th pick

Adrian Beltre - FA signing, so old draft spot doesn't matter here

 

Franchise hitters come from all over the place, there is no sure way to get one and FA or mid season trades aren't generally a good way to go about it. You draft/trade for a lot of talented guys and hope one of them takes a big step above the talent you got them at.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Nice post Ennder.

 

However, out of the top 10 WAR "Franchise" hitters you posted...

 

20% were top 5 draft picks (Bryant, Machado)

30% were top 10 draft picks (Bryant, Machado, Lindor)

60% were first round draft picks (Bryant, Machado, Lindor, Seager, Trout, Donaldson)

 

20% were international free agents (Altuve, Beltre- note:This is an area where the organization needs even better scouting/investment especially with international draft tabled in new CBA)

20% were diamonds in the rough/lottery ticket hits (Betts, Freeman)

 

It still illistrates that organizations are MUCH MORE LIKELY to land a franchise hitter with a high (top end of first round) draft pick.

 

The Brewers pick #9 overall in 2017 draft and should pick in the Top 5 of the 2018 draft.

 

Those two picks will be HUGE for this re-build and it's of my opinion that the Brewers DESPERATELY need to land a future Top of the Rotation Starter or All-Star caliber hitter with at least one of those two picks.

 

I'm excited to find out that the 2018 draft class is gonna be a good one.

[MadThinker88]

The highest WAR position players last year were.

 

Mike Trout - 25th pick (should have gone to the Brewers and we may have won a World Series if he did)

Kris Bryant - 2nd pick

Mookie Betts - 172nd pick

Josh Donaldson - 48th pick (FA sign)

Corey Seager - 18th pick

Jose Altuve - unsigned free agent

Manny Machado - 4th pick

Francisco Lindor - 8th pick

Freddie Freeman - 78th pick

Adrian Beltre - FA signing, so old draft spot doesn't matter here

 

Franchise hitters come from all over the place, there is no sure way to get one and FA or mid season trades aren't generally a good way to go about it. You draft/trade for a lot of talented guys and hope one of them takes a big step above the talent you got them at.

 

When was Josh a FA sign?? I see he was drafted and traded twice.

 

via Baseball Reference:

June 7, 2007: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 1st round (48th pick) of the 2007 amateur draft. Player signed June 24, 2007.

July 8, 2008: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson to the Oakland Athletics for Chad Gaudin and Rich Harden.

November 28, 2014: Traded by the Oakland Athletics to the Toronto Blue Jays for Franklin Barreto (minors), Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie and Sean Nolin.

[adambr2]

The highest WAR position players last year were.

 

Mike Trout - 25th pick (should have gone to the Brewers

 

Are you meaning anything more by this than 'wish he would have?' I thought he went the pick before ours, but I was just curious as to whether there was more to the story.

[topper09er]

The highest WAR position players last year were.

 

Mike Trout - 25th pick (should have gone to the Brewers

 

Are you meaning anything more by this than 'wish he would have?' I thought he went the pick before ours, but I was just curious as to whether there was more to the story.

 

He means that offseason the Yankees signed the top 2 FAs, Sabathia and Texieria. They had to give up their top draft pick to the team they signed the "top free agent" from. Although CC Sabathia just came off a season in which he led both leagues in shutouts, and was the top LHP in baseball, Texiera was rated the #1 free agent so the Angels got that comp pick instead of us. So if either Sabathia was correctly rated the #1 FA or if any other team besides the Yankees signed Texieria we would have had the pick Trout was drafted with.

 

However, it is a big assumption to assume we would have taken him there.

[Point Beer Is Best]

The highest WAR position players last year were.

 

Mike Trout - 25th pick (should have gone to the Brewers

 

Are you meaning anything more by this than 'wish he would have?' I thought he went the pick before ours, but I was just curious as to whether there was more to the story.

 

He means that offseason the Yankees signed the top 2 FAs, Sabathia and Texieria. They had to give up their top draft pick to the team they signed the "top free agent" from. Although CC Sabathia just came off a season in which he led both leagues in shutouts, and was the top LHP in baseball, Texiera was rated the #1 free agent so the Angels got that comp pick instead of us. So if either Sabathia was correctly rated the #1 FA or if any other team besides the Yankees signed Texieria we would have had the pick Trout was drafted with.

 

However, it is a big assumption to assume we would have taken him there.

 

Fans that were big on the amateur draft were very giddy heading into that offseason. We were likely to lose Sabathia and Ben Sheets (both Type A free agents, and Sabathia was the #2 rated FA by the Elias Sports Bureau behind only Tex), and we also lost Brian Shouse (Type B free agent). *Cue newscaster voiceover* Then, tragedy struck. Sabathia was signed by the Yankees, who had also signed Tex, meaning that the Angels were awarded NYY's 1st round pick, while the Brewers were awarded their 2nd round pick. The hapless Blue Jays also lost Type A free agent AJ Burnett to the Yankees, but were only awarded their 3rd round pick as compensation. Brian Shouse signed with the Rays (I think), awarding the Brewers a "sandwich" pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. Sheets ended up having a significant arm injury, and didn't sign with the A's until after the draft pick compensation period had ended.

 

We ended up with a higher compensation pick for losing Brian Shouse than we did for Sabathia. Let that sink in for a minute.

 

And while it is correctly pointed out that it would be a huge assumption to say the Brewers would have drafted Trout, there was a lot of reports of the Brewers taking a particular liking to Trout prior to the draft.

[Ennder]

Oops I thought Donaldson was a signing not a trade. 70% of the top 10 being outside the top half of the draft still makes my point. Just drafting high isn't the easy answer like in say the NBA.

[nate82]

 

Fans that were big on the amateur draft were very giddy heading into that offseason. We were likely to lose Sabathia and Ben Sheets (both Type A free agents, and Sabathia was the #2 rated FA by the Elias Sports Bureau behind only Tex), and we also lost Brian Shouse (Type B free agent). *Cue newscaster voiceover* Then, tragedy struck. Sabathia was signed by the Yankees, who had also signed Tex, meaning that the Angels were awarded NYY's 1st round pick, while the Brewers were awarded their 2nd round pick. The hapless Blue Jays also lost Type A free agent AJ Burnett to the Yankees, but were only awarded their 3rd round pick as compensation. Brian Shouse signed with the Rays (I think), awarding the Brewers a "sandwich" pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. Sheets ended up having a significant arm injury, and didn't sign with the A's until after the draft pick compensation period had ended.

 

We ended up with a higher compensation pick for losing Brian Shouse than we did for Sabathia. Let that sink in for a minute.

 

And while it is correctly pointed out that it would be a huge assumption to say the Brewers would have drafted Trout, there was a lot of reports of the Brewers taking a particular liking to Trout prior to the draft.

 

Interesting point on Ben Sheets the Rangers were about to sign him but they decided against adding a free agent at the last moment. The Brewers came very close in acquiring another pick that offseason but the Rangers decided to not add any more payroll.

[brewcrewdue80]

However, it is a big assumption to assume we would have taken him there.

 

Fans that were big on We ended up with a higher compensation pick for losing Brian Shouse than we did for Sabathia. Let that sink in for a minute.

 

And while it is correctly pointed out that it would be a huge assumption to say the Brewers would have drafted Trout, there was a lot of reports of the Brewers taking a particular liking to Trout prior to the draft.

 

Wow, that is something I did not know on Shouse. How terrible that was.

 

I wouldn't think it was an assumption anymore after all the times Melvin mentions that draft and the screwjob the Brewers got. He said They would have drafted Mike Trout with that pick.

[topper09er]

 

I wouldn't think it was an assumption anymore after all the times Melvin mentions that draft and the screwjob the Brewers got. He said They would have drafted Mike Trout with that pick.

 

Of course he said that after it appeared that Mike Trout was actually Mickey Mantle 2.0. What do you think he would say publicly, "No, we weren't too high on Trout and that. We would have picked some other guy who sucks" Why didn't the other previous ~26 teams not pick Trout, and if Melvin was so good at identifying Hall of Fame sleeper picks why has he never drafted any others?

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey just repeating that he said it. If the Brewers had that pick that would have been 2 in a row, so there's a good chance they'd have spent it on a HS kid. Sorta like the way they went Roache/Coulter.

[LouisEly]

Of course he said that after it appeared that Mike Trout was actually Mickey Mantle 2.0. What do you think he would say publicly, "No, we weren't too high on Trout and that. We would have picked some other guy who sucks" Why didn't the other previous ~26 teams not pick Trout, and if Melvin was so good at identifying Hall of Fame sleeper picks why has he never drafted any others?

The previous 24 teams didn't pick Trout primarily because he was from the northeast (not many great baseball players from northern states, shorter seasons to evaluate players, questions about competition vs. kids who play in CA/FL/the southern part of the country) and because he had committed to play at Eastern Carolina. Even after his first season of pro ball he wasn't a top prospect (#83 by BA, #53 by BP, not ranked by MLB.com but I don't know if they did rankings then) so it's not like scouts thought that highly of him.

 

Melvin and Co. did think that players from colder climates were underrated, and that was brought up when they drafted Mark Rogers over Homer Bailey and Wade Townsend in 2004.

 

I'd imagine that the list of Hall of Fame sleeper picks is a pretty short list, but Brett Lawrie has the 2nd highest bWAR of any player picked in the first round in 2008 (Odorizzi is #9 of 46 1st rounders), of the 28 players drafted in the first round after Jeffress in 2006 only three have >1 bWAR more than Jeffress (Ottavino - 5.8 bWAR, Chamberlain - 8.0, and Ian Kennedy - 14.5, the latter two both big oversigns by the Yankees who would have gone much higher if the draft rules of today had been in place), LaPorta was a Top 30 prospect when he was traded, and Ryan Braun has the highest bWAR of any player picked in the loaded 2005 draft. They were pretty good at identifying bats; the problem was the pitching got hurt (Jones, Rogers) or didn't pan out, but overall they did a pretty good job of identifying talent in the first round. To go from where they were in 2002 to where they were in 2009, they did a lot of things right in the draft.

[SomewhereInTime]

This leads me back to what I was saying during the season. We are not looking at 2018 (though I sure wouldn't complain). We are looking at 2020, 2021, 2022. That's when this team should be legitimate contenders. By then we'll likely have a few more top 10 picks, maybe top 5 and hopefully have the elite franchise player or two that can lead this franchise to the promised land.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that the window to legitimate contention for the Crew will start around 2020.

 

With that said, I believe the Brewers will really increase their odds of landing a franchise player by picking in the Top 3 of the draft in 2018 and 2019.

 

This will be the silver lining of fielding one of the worst teams in MLB the next two seasons.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have been saying that as well, but there are caveats.

 

First, will Mark A be willing to wait that long? Sure, he's bought into the rebuild, but I'm not sure he'll be patient enough to let this run it's natural process for too many seasons.

 

Secondly, player performance could move up the time frame. Specifically, starting pitching. It's entirely possible Davies stays the same, or even gets a little better. Peralta or Nelson could find consistency and be a really good pitcher. Then one or two of Hader, Woodruff, Taylor Williams, Lopez, etc. could be better and sooner than advertised. Not predicting this will happen, just saying if it does they could compete in 2018 or 2019 already.

[jerichoholicninja]

Four seasons away from "seriously competing" seems too long. Of course that depends on your definition of seriously competing. I can see being in wild card contention through late September as soon as 2018.

 

A lot of that is also going to depend on the rest of the division. When does the Cubs lack of young pitching catch up to them? Will the Cards continue to be a developmental juggernaut? Was last year a hiccup for the Pirates or are they headed for even a mini rebuild?

[mrn1ceguy]

Four seasons away from "seriously competing" seems too long. Of course that depends on your definition of seriously competing. I can see being in wild card contention through late September as soon as 2018.

 

A lot of that is also going to depend on the rest of the division. When does the Cubs lack of young pitching catch up to them? Will the Cards continue to be a developmental juggernaut? Was last year a hiccup for the Pirates or are they headed for even a mini rebuild?

 

I agree and I personally think it will be regardless of how the Cubs/Cards/Pirates do, at least in terms of being Wild Card contenders. If things go well (not even great), we could have the following lineup and starting rotation by mid 2018 (note I just took a stab in the dark for realistic / mildy optimistic stats).

 

1B: Thames (.275/.350/.475)

2B: Villar (.280/.360/.450)

SS: Arcia (.260/.320/.430)

3B: Shaw (.260/.310/.440)

LF: Braun (.300/.360/.500)

CF: Brinson (.290/.330/.480)

RF: Broxton (.260/.340/.430)

C: Susac (.270/.330/.460) - chose his 2014 stats as his optimistic/realistic option

 

Guerra (3.00 ERA / 1.15 WHIP)

Davies (3.60 ERA / 1.25 WHIP)

Hader (3.00 ERA / 1.20 WHIP)

Ortiz (3.25 ERA / 1.30 WHIP)

Peralta (4.00 ERA / 1.40 WHIP)

 

That's a pretty potent/solid lineup with good defense all around. If we put together a good bullpen/bench with the remaining parts, I'd like to believe that could be an upper 80s win team vying for a playoff spot. Especially if someone has a breakout year. This also leaves the minors ripe with possible replacements/upgrades like Phillips, Bickford, Woodruff, Dubon, Lopez, and Cory Ray with Isan Diaz, Ecreg, Ponce, Diplan and more just a year away.

[adambr2]

Four seasons away from "seriously competing" seems too long. Of course that depends on your definition of seriously competing. I can see being in wild card contention through late September as soon as 2018.

 

A lot of that is also going to depend on the rest of the division. When does the Cubs lack of young pitching catch up to them? Will the Cards continue to be a developmental juggernaut? Was last year a hiccup for the Pirates or are they headed for even a mini rebuild?

 

I agree and I personally think it will be regardless of how the Cubs/Cards/Pirates do, at least in terms of being Wild Card contenders. If things go well (not even great), we could have the following lineup and starting rotation by mid 2018 (note I just took a stab in the dark for realistic / mildy optimistic stats).

 

1B: Thames (.275/.350/.475)

2B: Villar (.280/.360/.450)

SS: Arcia (.260/.320/.430)

3B: Shaw (.260/.310/.440)

LF: Braun (.300/.360/.500)

CF: Brinson (.290/.330/.480)

RF: Broxton (.260/.340/.430)

C: Susac (.270/.330/.460) - chose his 2014 stats as his optimistic/realistic option

 

Guerra (3.00 ERA / 1.15 WHIP)

Davies (3.60 ERA / 1.25 WHIP)

Hader (3.00 ERA / 1.20 WHIP)

Ortiz (3.25 ERA / 1.30 WHIP)

Peralta (4.00 ERA / 1.40 WHIP)

 

That's a pretty potent/solid lineup with good defense all around. If we put together a good bullpen/bench with the remaining parts, I'd like to believe that could be an upper 80s win team vying for a playoff spot. Especially if someone has a breakout year. This also leaves the minors ripe with possible replacements/upgrades like Phillips, Bickford, Woodruff, Dubon, Lopez, and Cory Ray with Isan Diaz, Ecreg, Ponce, Diplan and more just a year away.

 

I would certainly love if all of that came true but those seem like wildly optimistic projections to me. Or at least some of them.

[mrn1ceguy]

 

I would certainly love if all of that came true but those seem like wildly optimistic projections to me. Or at least some of them.

 

Yeah, re-reading it I probably overshot on pitching. But if things work as as planned/hoped (Brinson meets expectations, Thames gamble works out, Broxton is for real and Braun keep on keepin ons) most everyone projected is where they've been or where they should be. This does assume no one tanks/falls off - hence the optimistic projections. But even with a heavily pulled back rotation projection (bump hader to 4.00 ERA and replace Ortiz with a journey man Anderson at 4.5), this still could be a wildcard roster.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd find it really hard to see Ortiz in 2018 even part time. But Hader I understand. Guerra is doubtful just due to history and age. Now there's Woodruff as the potential Ortiz replacement in that projection. His breakout year last year, and with this July trade deadline, I think seeing him is possible in 2017 and then 2018 realistic to perform that way....At least believing his breakout is real and moving forward. I believe we're at a point where Nelson or Peralta are removed from starting and put in the bullpen. Jorge Lopez fits that potential if he doesn't regain form as a Starter by the trade deadline. This is why I'm not that concerned with the bullpen as made-up currently. Visually the depth truth to me is that you aren't going to sit on these types like Nelson, Peralta, Lopez, Jungmann on future development as Starters. There is a backload of SP prospects who are coming and forcing them to wait just won't happen.

That concern of Mark A. waiting for this rebuild to flourish on the ML field. You combat that by advancing the better talented pitching and move on from the ones no longer holding down a spot with starting. I'm sure there is a bullpen pickup coming before the season starts, just not that FA variety, but by waiver claim as Stearns has shown the ability to find talent that way. And I'll be honest. As 2017 season plays out and prospect talent or ML talent is sorted through. The depth in the OF sees a major piece moved such as Santana, Broxton or Brinson along with other types and acquire someone the team needs to attain 2018 competitiveness. There is no way this rebuild takes to 2020. And I'd be very surprised that it takes in to 2019. This is happening in 2018 and there are moves to be made that could make the rebuild a reality before the end of 2017, it just comes too late in the season to say they are winning in 2017.