How do we add a FRANCHISE HITTER and/or AN ACE LEVEL PITCHER to our organization?

[patrickgpe]

i didn't read through everything here, but the obvious answer is to suck for a season, get lucky and get a great talent. The cubs were fornuate to be really bad and have some teams pass up for monetary purposes pass on Bryant and Schwarber. last year was supposed to be the great tank and the brewers ended up picking 9th, which will make it more hard to get an elite propsect.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

We need to be savvy making deals as well. Stearns has been doing this by targeting prospects before they have a premium name, but the Rizzo move accelerated the Cubs rebuild ten fold. A lot of people forget about how the Cubs traded Andrew Cashner for Rizzo in basically a 1 for 1. Maybe if a scout of ours falls in love with a player we could do the same trading from a position of depth.

[monty57]

I guess my definition of an ACE starting pitcher is different than most Brewer fans.

 

This is the crux of the situation. Are you looking for us to acquire a Kershaw/Trout? There are only a few of those guys in baseball at any given time, so most teams don't have that type player. If you are going to bemoan the Brewers until they acquire a player like that, then you are going to be unhappy far more than you will be happy.

 

If, on the other hand, you are looking for guys who could be perennial all-stars, then I think we already have some of those guys in the system. Right now, we probably have the best farm we have ever had. One could argue that when we had Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, etc it was better, but we have a much better balance of hitting/pitching in the mix this time around. Plus, we have a lot more young talent at the MLB level than we had when those guys were in the minors. I guess I don't get the extreme negativity about the state of the franchise at this point. I'm as positive about the future as I have been in a long time.

[monty57]

We need to be savvy making deals as well. Stearns has been doing this by targeting prospects before they have a premium name, but the Rizzo move accelerated the Cubs rebuild ten fold. A lot of people forget about how the Cubs traded Andrew Cashner for Rizzo in basically a 1 for 1. Maybe if a scout of ours falls in love with a player we could do the same trading from a position of depth.

 

We've already picked up Davies, Villar and Broxton for basically nothing. All of those guys have the potential to be very valuable players.

 

Every team is built differently, but I like that Stearns is looking to add value to the franchise (all levels) in any means possible. If you keep doing this, you will find some guys who become very good MLB players.

[sveumrules]

I guess my definition of an ACE starting pitcher is different than most Brewer fans.

 

Zach Davies doesn't not have the raw "stuff" or talent to be a MLB ace. Pure and simple.

 

How is his "stuff" different from Kyle Hendricks?

 

Their stuff is pretty similar no doubt. The main advantage Hendricks had last year was playing in front of one of the best team defenses of all time.

 

2015: 180 IP, 167 K, 43 BB, 17 HR, 3.95 ERA

2016: 190 IP, 170 K, 44 BB, 15 HR, 2.13 ERA

 

The only real difference between the two years is that Hendricks allowed about 6% more soft contact in 2016 than in 2015, though I don't think that is worth 1.8 earned runs per nine innings.

 

Hendricks is probably the ultimate attainable upside for Davies, but without a 200 IP season under his belt and his only remarkable season being greatly aided by historic team defense I don't think Hendricks quite qualifies for "ace" status yet. At least not by my definition.

[patrickgpe]

my idea of a franchise hitter and ace pitcher is one that is consistently top 5 MVP / CY young consideration. Players like Villar and Davies are nice players, and maybe will play in an all star game, but are not players that you build the franchise around. The brewers haven't had that since young Ryan Braun and there is nobody in the organization that fits the bill at this moment.

[MadScientist]

Zach Davies doesn't not have the raw "stuff" or talent to be a MLB ace. Pure and simple.

Does being an ace require both stuff and talent, or can you get away with having one and not the other?

You can be an ace without the raw stuff if you outstanding control, like the later years for Greg Maddux (when he was young he could throw hard as well). An ace has to be able to dominate a game time and time again. To the point where it gets into a batters head even before the game starts.

[adambr2]

I don't mean to ruin it buuuuuuut...find another way than drafting Top 5 because that is not going to happen for a long time. We are #9 this year and the team is going to vastly improve moving forward.

There you go. On the nose.

 

 

Agreed. Use as many avenues/resources as you can because it'll be a long time before this team is complete trash again and I happily say that.

 

I actually think we might take a small step back next year, especially if Braun is traded. Not top 3 but maybe borderline top 5, then once our upper level prospects start contributing more in 2018-2019 start to see some major improvements. Hope I'm wrong though. The bullpen is a major work in progress right now with Jeffress Thornburg and Smith all gone in the last year, I think we're very likely for some regression there.

[jerichoholicninja]

How many teams right now have a "franchise hitter" or "ace level pitcher"? Half, maybe. Probably more like about 10 or 12. So basically most teams don't because those types of players are incredibly rare and how they get distributed is randomly, by chance, luck, whatever you want to call it. If there was much skill involved in finding/drafting/developing these types of players there would be multiple teams with multiple players of that caliber.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

We need to be savvy making deals as well. Stearns has been doing this by targeting prospects before they have a premium name, but the Rizzo move accelerated the Cubs rebuild ten fold. A lot of people forget about how the Cubs traded Andrew Cashner for Rizzo in basically a 1 for 1. Maybe if a scout of ours falls in love with a player we could do the same trading from a position of depth.

 

We've already picked up Davies, Villar and Broxton for basically nothing. All of those guys have the potential to be very valuable players.

 

Every team is built differently, but I like that Stearns is looking to add value to the franchise (all levels) in any means possible. If you keep doing this, you will find some guys who become very good MLB players.

I agree 100%, but with that post I was alluding to trading a higher rated prospect from a position of depth for someone our F.O. really likes. For a completely hypothetical example. The Brewers have a ton of OF depth in the system right? So maybe we see Brett Phillips as expendable to a team that really likes him. The F.O. sees a P or 3B of equal value that has a ton of upside and we swap. I know that's easier said then done, but we're gonna run into a problem (albeit a good one to have) trying to fit everyone.

[FVBrewerFan]

Plus we had one in Braun. Arguably Fielder for a couple years at that level. No WS. Add players across MLB like Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, Trout, Harper, King Felix, McCutchen, Beltre, etc. Seems it's not as important as we may think?

 

I think what happens some years is you start with a really good team, and then get career years out of a couple guys. So that player may not be a perennial MVP or Cy Young, but maybe he is one season.

 

I guess what I'm saying, of course it would be great to have a couple franchise players but that's not the only way to win it all.

[Thurston Fluff]

KC didn't have a top of the rotation starter or a Braun/Bryant level player and they seemed to do alright.

[LouisEly]

The one thing that hasn't been addressed here is, do the Brewers have the right coaches in the right places/levels in the organization? Star players are rarely stars when drafted; they are usually developed.

 

Arrieta, Hendricks, Rizzo... none of those guys were drafted before the 5th round. And none of those guys were drafted by the Cubs; they traded for each one. Strasburg was the #1 overall pick, but he went undrafted out of HS. Josh Hader was a 19th round pick. You can get value out of college players too; Jose De Leon was a 24th round pick, Brandon Woodruff an 11th round pick. Tanner Roark was a 25th round pick, and two of his three seasons have been excellent. Those guys were all developed though, not drafted - every team had multiple chances at all of those guys.

 

Within the organization, look at what has happened with some players when they made small adjustments at the major league level. Corey Hart drops his hands a little, goes from .750 OPS two years in a row to three years in a row of .850 OPS. Keon Broxton drops his hands a little, puts up a .937 OPS in the 2nd half. They stop trying to make Carlos Gomez into something he isn't, and he puts up 13+ bWAR over two seasons and even though he cools off is on pace for a >3 WAR season when he was traded. Those things are the result of coaching.

 

The results of the Brewers drafts under Seid - and the pitching drafted under Jack Z - were disappointing. I have a hard time believing though that they missed on that much, and that good coaching - or a lack thereof - wasn't a big reason for it. I side with the "they likely have the players in the organization", particularly when it comes to pitching, it's a matter of if they have the right coaches to develop it.

[pacopete4]

Well we just signed our ace and we have Braun. World Series 2017!

[JJHardy7]

Davies won't be an ace since some people in this thread don't even know his first name...

 

I think we need to acquire the best talent we can and see what sticks. I'm a proponent if tanking...and not saying you can do it, but I certainly don't want to win games this year due to veteran free agent signing types.

[brewcrewdue80]

We add that type by continuing what Stearns has been doing. I hope Mark A. Just takes the money he's saving from 2016 and 2017 and locks in Stearns for another 10years.

The answer is most likely in the system....or on the team already

It is flat out GM of the year worthy what Stearns has done. The depth is remarkable. Imagine for a minute had 2014 turned roses already? Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara arent even top 10 prospect in the system! Theres time and youth for 1 of them to turn All Star still.

Having Villar turn out so well really answers a lot to that Franchise bat. And the talents are oozing with potential. Broxton I dont even understand what to project from him but hes now an everyday CF to keep in the lineup.

Diaz Ive chimed to special. He may not be Braun but comparing to other 2b hes going to give the Brewers a leg up on the League.

And that is just it. The depth has above average all over aside 3b/1b. Catcher just avg is above average. The pitching has more potential #2 types than ever before. Certainly getting a Zach Davies type of season is reasonable which makes reaching the post season that much easier.

 

Id love to find an Ace. On the bat side, youre staring at so many .750-850OPS types with speed abundant. OB pluses. Think AL last 2years. KC and Clv. They didnt have superstar bats, but a solid mix in the lineup.

Milw to me through Stearns has higher bat potentials now in place than both those teams.

 

Edit add: oh btw, we may have that Ace. Luiz Ortiz i gushed about predraft 2014. My personal favorite for that draft. The concern before acquiring him is his weight. The talent is special.

Add Marcos Diplan who was #2 international rank before that sogning period. Somehow his last 2seasons of stats havent resulted in top 100 rankings for prospects. Expect that to change before end of 2017season.

[monty57]

... but I certainly don't want to win games this year due to veteran free agent signing types.

 

Well, our veteran free agent signing so far has been Tommy Milone, so I think you're safe :-)

[DocLuna7]

Well everyone on Brewerfan ASSUMED Mat Gamel was going to be the next Ryan Braun, although he never had that kind of talent.

 

That's why teams have scouts.

 

There is not a scout in America that will tell you that Kyle Davies has the talent to be an ACE at the Major League Level, I'm sorry to say.

 

I am late to this thread but I don't think that more than a handful of people projected Mat Gamel to be the next Ryan Braun. I know that I certainly didn't. Also, assume that you mean Zach Davies when you keep saying Kyle Davies?

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't mean to ruin it buuuuuuut...find another way than drafting Top 5 because that is not going to happen for a long time. We are #9 this year and the team is going to vastly improve moving forward.

 

FYI, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected as the worst team in baseball for 2017

 

[urlhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/][/url]

 

To be fair, this projection may have come before the Tommy Milone signing.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't mean to ruin it buuuuuuut...find another way than drafting Top 5 because that is not going to happen for a long time. We are #9 this year and the team is going to vastly improve moving forward.

 

FYI, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected as the worst team in baseball for 2017

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/

 

To be fair, this projection may have come before the Tommy Milone signing.

[And That]

I believe at this time last year the Brewers were projected to be the third or fourth worst by the Depth Charts projections. So, that's how that turned out. Depth Charts projections are, for my money, not great.

[pacopete4]

Hader could be your future ace. You just never know.

[adambr2]

I would not be whatsoever surprised if we pick top 5 in 2018. We're improving, but improvement is not always linear in your W/L from year to year.

[DocLuna7]

I would not be whatsoever surprised if we pick top 5 in 2018. We're improving, but improvement is not always linear in your W/L from year to year.

 

I would agree with this. There are at least five games every year that a team loses that could have been won regardless of who is on the roster or what state of rebuilding a franchise is in.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't mean to ruin it buuuuuuut...find another way than drafting Top 5 because that is not going to happen for a long time. We are #9 this year and the team is going to vastly improve moving forward.

 

FYI, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected as the worst team in baseball for 2017

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/

 

To be fair, this projection may have come before the Tommy Milone signing.

 

Would guesstimate total at about 67wins. I dunno how they put San Diego in front of Milwaukee. One would assume they expect Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals with their 90+win projections to have a better record heads up than combined 14-18 vs Brewers in 2016. Also the total unknowns for Bullpen and Thames, and now that he's gone from Boston, to take Shaw from a 3WAR easy player to a -1WAR type of player. Who plays Catcher? since all will be a rookie for playing in an entire season they likely give them all a combined -WAR taking in to Account Lucroy's far superior WAR. I'm sure give all the Brewers a regression who seen success last season. Villar from a 3 to 1WAR, Perez 1.4 to .2 WAR, Braun 3.2 to 1.7. Surprisingly they left Guerra from 2.5 to 2.4 and Broxton 2.1 to 2.0 but then again, how short is that selling Keon based on his terrible 1st half? Davies 2.8 to 2.0 Santana they at least upped him 1WAR. Well Shaw from 1.5 to 1 only. Thames doesn't have a Steamer on FG but -1.8WAR value from Depth Charts.... which gives Carlos Gomez a 2.2WAR project, Ryan Braun just 1.9 as highest Brewer followed by Travis Shaw with 1.1 pretty much 1.0 for much of the Brewer top bats.

 

Thames is literally dead last of 594 batters at -1.8. Matt Davidson is the only other batter with -1.0 to be at or below -1.0 Corey Hart and Nate McClouth have a higher projection value, as does Adam Brett Walker.

 

Arcia is being given a .3/ .4 WAR projection.

 

Pretty much all but Santana were downgraded from last year's WAR.

 

It's funny how we chime Braun's health being a detriment, but he's projected 133 games while Villar is only projected 130games. Negative value in a bat. From 18.3 to -3.6.

 

I guess you gotta beat up on some team. I think Thames in Spring Training will adjust everyone's attitude toward where this team is headed. Steamer didn't project him wisely.