Adam Eaton traded to Washington, Lucas Giolito+ to the White Sox

[sveumrules]

You can't use a stat in a way you know isn't accurate and expect an accurate outcome.

 

How am I using the stat inaccurately?

 

Eaton's WAR values the last three years have been 5.2/3.9/6.2 via BRef & 3.1/3.7/6.0 via FG. Even if you consider Eaton's RF defense last year such a huge outlier that it should be disregarded entirely he still would have put up around 4 WAR in either system with a zero defensive rating last year instead of the +22 he posted.

 

From that information I have ballparked his future mean WAR at 3 in an effort to estimate his surplus value. I have regressed his WAR from what he has already demonstrated as a baseline even though he is still at an age where he should not be expected to decline anytime soon & even though he has been one of the most consistent offensive players in the game the last three years (OBPs of 362, 361, 362 & wRC+s of 118, 119, 115). If anything a 3 WAR estimate might be too low considering his track record, age & going to what is generally considered a weaker league.

[MrTPlush]

Eaton is an under-radar/ underrated player but still. Wasn't expecting Giolito plus for him.

 

Thats because such a trade hardly(heck really never) happens. A 4 WAR player with 5 years of control at a dirt cheap price is really rare. The only example I can think of is Edgar Inciarte. The problem is he is only a 2 WAR offensive player while Eaton provides about double the offensive output. Hard to use that trade as a comparable because it was done by you know who so its more a joke/outlier.

 

Everyone kind of assumes elite prospects can only go for elite MLB players. Difference is in that case you are likely only getting 2 years of said player. Nationals get to reap the benefits of Eaton for a half decade.

[jerichoholicninja]

I posted this in the Sale thread but for some reason it didn't stick.

 

I read many times on here that Moncada would never be traded. I read the same things about Giolito. Now both were just traded to the same team.

[Boomer5]

I posted this in the Sale thread but for some reason it didn't stick.

 

I read many times on here that Moncada would never be traded. I read the same things about Giolito. Now both were just traded to the same team.

 

Teams can't use FA dollars as currency much since the prices have gone into orbit so they are using prospects instead.

 

The Nats still got fleeced unless we find out Giolito is a member of the Taliban or is about to have his arm fall off.

[MrTPlush]

I posted this in the Sale thread but for some reason it didn't stick.

 

I read many times on here that Moncada would never be traded. I read the same things about Giolito. Now both were just traded to the same team.

 

You know something that was also thought at that time? Chris Sale and Adam Eaton weren't going to be traded...so.

[MrTPlush]

I posted this in the Sale thread but for some reason it didn't stick.

 

I read many times on here that Moncada would never be traded. I read the same things about Giolito. Now both were just traded to the same team.

 

Teams can't use FA dollars as currency much since the prices have gone into orbit so they are using prospects instead.

 

The Nats still got fleeced unless we find out Giolito is a member of the Taliban or is about to have his arm fall off.

 

Or he just isn't as good as some people think.

[MKE81]

people on this board

Like you?

No, actually not like me. My pulse is on logic and reasoning; analyzing something from all perspectives using whatever information is available, not delusions of grandeur. I understand that I don't have the data that Stearns (or any GM) and his team have when making any decisions nor understand how exactly they evaluate talent. I also don't speak highly of a player, while citing analytics, out of one side of my mouth then spout "analytics are wrong on Eaton" out of the other. Just think about that really quick and how insane that is - analytics are correct for whatever you believe but wrong for what you don't? I've said from day one that too many people on here use metrics such as OPS, WAR, etc as the main tools when evaluating a player instead of using them as one of many tools to evaluate, which includes your own eyes.

 

And if your quote was in regard to my comment regarding Thornburg's trade return then have at it. Nothing I said can be refuted. Nothing I said is illogical or doesn't make sense.

[And That]

Right, but when you say "people on this board" - which you do a lot - you are implicitly including yourself, because you are on this board. (And I'm assuming you are a person.) That's the problem with generalizations.

[homer]

Maybe I'm old school, but to put it another way, if the Brewers traded Braun straight up for Adam Eaton, I think most Brewer fans would burn Miller Park to the ground.

 

Eaton is half the price and way younger. Ryan Braun is a bit better offensively, but Eaton makes up for any gap with his defense. Eaton is in his prime while Braun is likely to decline. I can't understand why anyone would even think about wanting Braun over Eaton. Honestly you can use any way to grade out the two players and Eaton>Braun. It is a no brainer in my opinion. Seems like the people getting paid to run baseball teams for real also think that too. We probably couldn't have even gotten Reynoldo Lopez for Braun, but Eaton got a Top 5 MLB Prospect plus Lopez plus a 1st round selection. Lets put 2 and 2 together.

Stop making sense. Everyone knows that people on this board have the best pulse on everything know to man. People can't even analyze the Thornburg deal how can you expect that to happen here. I love that people are saying analytics are wrong. My goodness

 

 

Not hard to re-word that into an opinion without denigrating others. Feel free to give it a shot.

[jerichoholicninja]

I posted this in the Sale thread but for some reason it didn't stick.

 

I read many times on here that Moncada would never be traded. I read the same things about Giolito. Now both were just traded to the same team.

 

You know something that was also thought at that time? Chris Sale and Adam Eaton weren't going to be traded...so.

 

Sale was rumored to be on the block all summer. Him being traded isn't a surprise.

[MrTPlush]

I posted this in the Sale thread but for some reason it didn't stick.

 

I read many times on here that Moncada would never be traded. I read the same things about Giolito. Now both were just traded to the same team.

 

You know something that was also thought at that time? Chris Sale and Adam Eaton weren't going to be traded...so.

 

Sale was rumored to be on the block all summer. Him being traded isn't a surprise.

 

It was also incredibly unlikely.

[Austin Tatious]

I love what the Chisox have done. Stacking young talent, particularly pitching. Love the approach. Giolito. Kopech. Geez that's two guys that fit the profile for TOR talent. Obviously, Moncada.

 

They may not be done and could move a couple more like Quintana, Robertson, and Frazier. There are more highly valued guys they can move.

 

It's interesting to me that I've seen a couple of reports that the Nats became less enthusiastic about Giolito and moved him. That's not to say they didn't like him. I have seen that their untouchable guy is Trea Turner.

 

The Brewers still have some ammo hopefully for the trade deadline. I always like keeping your powder dry for opportunities. Hopefully, Guerra picks up where he left off last year.

 

We have a top ten draft pick and 3 picks in the first 50. There is still lots of room to get fresh new talent in here.

[MrTPlush]

One thing to keep in mind is while everyone on here is valuing Giolito like a god and elite prospect the Nats wanted nothing to do with him. That is a big red flag when a team is trying to essentially dump a prospect and sell high on them like that. For whatever reason it seemed like the Nationals felt Giolito in Washington was not going to have a happy ending. Maybe they don't think he is as good as everyone thinks or maybe they think he will be a slow devoping pitcher on their win now team.

 

Regardless this should be an interesting one to watch play out.

[patrickgpe]

Sigh. This is a real blue balls off-season... I give it a C- so far. The only real bright spot is getting Dubon otherwise meh.

not to pick on anyone, but this is why people are freaking out over the rule v draft, we are getting so used to instant knowledge that we cannot wait until April and see how the team looks and judge the offseason as a whole. We grade every trade within minutes.

 

the brewers WILL sign some free agent relievers and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Scooter trade, maybe a Braun one too (less likely). lets reserve judgement until atleast pitchers and catchers report and see how they match up.

[reillymcshane]

One thing to keep in mind is while everyone on here is valuing Giolito like a god and elite prospect the Nats wanted nothing to do with him. That is a big red flag when a team is trying to essentially dump a prospect and sell high on them like that. For whatever reason it seemed like the Nationals felt Giolito in Washington was not going to have a happy ending. Maybe they don't think he is as good as everyone thinks or maybe they think he will be a slow devoping pitcher on their win now team.

 

Regardless this should be an interesting one to watch play out.

Most scouts and analysts were not been impressed with Giolito's major league debut this past year. Or his time in the minors. After the trade, the general consensus was that no one - the Nats and the White Sox - valued Giolito like they had a year or two ago.

 

It doesn't mean everyone hates Giolito - just that there are more questions than there were in the past. He's still got a ton of talent, and I'm sure every team in baseball would love to have him in their system.

 

It's why prospect status is so fluid. Players change (or don't change) over time. We gather more data. I bet we see Giolito's ranking go down a bit in the 2017 prospect rankings. How much, I don't know. But I won't be surprised if it happens.

 

I'm not defending the trade for Eaton. I'm just saying that while it was a lot, as noted, Giolito's trade value was not as high as some perceived.

[JohnBriggs12]

reillymcshane hit on it. Prospect rankings are snapshots in time. Players go up and they go down, particularly pitchers but position players as well. Lets wait and see.

[sveumrules]

Dave Cameron with a pretty thorough breakdown of the Eaton trade versus the Fowler signing...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/comparing-the-dexter-fowler-and-adam-eaton-decisions/

 

"With salary, draft pick tax, and aging factored in, these numbers give Eaton something like an $85 million advantage in value. So, to decide whether which team made out better with their center field decision, we have to decide whether we think the prospects the Nationals gave up are worth more than $85 million."

[monty57]

Boomer5 said: "Heyward. The poster boy for the "6 WAR Elite" OF."

 

JohnBriggs12 said: "Prospect rankings are snapshots in time. Players go up and they go down, particularly pitchers but position players as well. Lets wait and see."

 

 

I think combined these quotes show that any move has risk. Whether acquiring a "proven" veteran or an "unproven" prospect, you do your best to try to find guys who will help you out during the time you "control" them. Sometimes you're right, and sometimes not. For every veteran pick-up who has flopped, you can point out a failed "top prospect," and vice versa.

 

Some Owners/GM's probably prefer to use prospects as capital in trade, feeling more secure in getting "proven" players. Others prefer to stockpile prospects and build from within. The members of the former group are probably amazed that guys who have shown ability at the MLB level are available in trade, while guys in the latter group are amazed that "top prospects" are available in trade.

 

As jerichoholicninja pointed out, no one is ever truly "untouchable," you just need to find someone who is willing to meet your price. The White Sox did a good job signing some guys for what has turned out to be undervalued contracts, much like the Brewers did with Gomez and Lucroy, and that's why they were able to get such a haul back. Regardless the market, money always has value.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Sigh. This is a real blue balls off-season... I give it a C- so far. The only real bright spot is getting Dubon otherwise meh.

not to pick on anyone, but this is why people are freaking out over the rule v draft, we are getting so used to instant knowledge that we cannot wait until April and see how the team looks and judge the offseason as a whole. We grade every trade within minutes.

 

the brewers WILL sign some free agent relievers and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Scooter trade, maybe a Braun one too (less likely). lets reserve judgement until atleast pitchers and catchers report and see how they match up.

100% agree with you I'm an impatient son of a gun though.

[MadThinker88]

Welp... this move of Eaton to Washington kicked over another domino/ deal......

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/nationals-trade-danny-espinosa-to-angels.html

 

Two minor leaguers to the Nationals but that is not the main part of the story. This move seems to remove a possible landing spot for Scooter Gennett in a trade.