Adam Eaton traded to Washington, Lucas Giolito+ to the White Sox

[sveumrules]

No doubt, the crazy UZR/DRS number is RF last year drove Eaton's WAR surge, but even as a CF with average to bad defense he put up 3.1/3.7 fWAR & 5.2/3.9 bWAR in 2014/15. He may not be an "800 OPS" guy but his batting line has been 15-20% better than league average each of the last three years due to a well above average OBP & he also is a top 25 baserunner in the league.

 

Say he is only a 3 win player moving forward. Without accounting for inflation that is worth about 125 million over the next five years putting his surplus value around 85 million dollars.

 

Based on the research on prospect surplus value published by Point of Pittsburgh & preseason BA rankings Giolito is worth about 70 million in surplus value with Lopez worth another 15.5. Dunning hasn't made a top 100 yet but as a first round pick with some success at A ball already it is probably around 5-10 million or so. So maybe 90-100 million in surplus value coming back.

[MrTPlush]

Seems like a bit of a negative prediction when he has posted a 4+ WAR offensively alone.

He's posted a pretty high BABIP the past few seasons so I'm accounting for a bit of offensive regression. Maybe a .340ish BABIP is indicative of his true talent level, but I tend to doubt it. And even he does post a few more high BABIPs, it seems that if they stick him in CF that could actually detract from his overall value.

 

Not sure I would call a .330 BABIP high for a player like Adam Eaton. He is the kind of player that can sustain a higher BABIP.

[adambr2]

How does a future projection reflect his actual performance?

 

How does citing WAR disprove WAR?

 

Would you acknowledge that player performance can vary from year to year? Would it be impossible for a player who normally should put up a 3 WAR, to put up a 6 WAR?

 

Would you acknowledge that some players, for some reason, have results that routinely defy regression in some skills areas?

 

The stats say he is scary bad in CF, where he will play. That's why projections say he will be a 2 plus WAR player.

 

On offense he is a 790 guy. Not bad, but hardly the stuff of let's mortgage our entire farm system. Bad D and sub 800 offense. Sounds like an elite CF to you?

 

For what's it's worth, people seem to think he was also a bad clubhouse guy since he was part of the Sale/LaRoache clique.

 

Nothing available says Eaton is going to be quality CF for the Nationals. Cheap yes. Elite no. Your move.

 

You realize he's only likely to play in CF one year, right? Once Werth is gone to clear a spot in the corner, they probably won't keep him in center.

 

'Scary bad' is also overstating his struggles in CF too, IMO.

[jerichoholicninja]

[sarcasm]Dave Stewart doesn't like this one for the Nationals.[/sarcasm]

[StearnsFTW]

I watch a lot of White Sox baseball as my wife is a fan, and if Adam Eaton is listed as a top 25 baserunner that is definitely a metric I will never trust again. He's borderline Villarish.

 

He's also kind of a jerk from many accounts. Not sure how important that is, but it's been reported often.

 

Just not a guy I'd give much up for in spite of his talent.

[NievesNoNO]

Sometime deals are neither won or lost. If you're committed to rebuilding, then the White Sox did well. If you're committed to winning now the Nats got a really good, time and cost controlled player in his prime who also fills a need on the roster. Another LH bat, lead off hitter and gives them the ability to move Turner back to SS. There's not much to dislike if you're a Washington fan. Obviously they gave up some nice prospects, but even as much as Giolito is hyped he still has proven absolutely nothing. He's Luke Hochevar for all we know.

[Eye Black]

The prospect return in this trade was shocking to me. Good for the White Sox, they did an honest evaluation of the state of their organization and have rewritten the script for their future in just two days. With their crosstown rival winning the World Series the White Sox have focused on taking a step backward in order to add top end impact talent to their organization, and they have plenty more major league trade chips left.

[brewcrewdue80]

Giolito is likely 1year from Sale type numbers. And Moncada will vastly exceed in value than Eaton. The White Sox reduced payroll, improved team control, added depth...But most importantly, improved their ML team for 2017.

[pacopete4]

Slept on it. Still a horrendous trade for the Nats. This one will be funny to watch unfold.

[adambr2]

Have to wonder if there is something about Gioloto that the Nats didn't like. They dangled him out there back in July for Andrew Miller, then again for McCutchen recently, then finally traded him for Eaton. For such a highly rated prospect they seemed almost eager to get rid of him.

[mlloyd10]

White Sox vs Brewers 2020 World Series

[Thurston Fluff]

What sense does it make to trade for a guy who's defense is a significant part of his value then move him to a position where his defense isn't very good?

[Boomer5]

Have to wonder if there is something about Gioloto that the Nats didn't like. They dangled him out there back in July for Andrew Miller, then again for McCutchen recently, then finally traded him for Eaton. For such a highly rated prospect they seemed almost eager to get rid of him.

 

I concur. This was such a lopsided trade, maybe they found something they really didn't like. His MLB performance was terrible, but it must have been something that was revealed while he was up besides the raw stats and more towards the lack of hope that he could develop.

 

All that to give up and they still didn't get their closer included, who's they wanted to

trade.

 

For what's it's worth, the MLB radio guys on serious couldn't believe this trade.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Sigh. This is a real blue balls off-season... I give it a C- so far. The only real bright spot is getting Dubon otherwise meh.

[MilwaukeesBest]

Sigh. This is a real blue balls off-season... I give it a C- so far. The only real bright spot is getting Dubon otherwise meh.

 

What did you expect Milwaukee to do? And you do know the offseason literally just started, right?

[sveumrules]

What sense does it make to trade for a guy who's defense is a significant part of his value then move him to a position where his defense isn't very good?

 

As a CF with average to bad defense Eaton put up 3.1/3.7 fWAR & 5.2/3.9 bWAR in 2014/15. Werth is also a free agent after this year so they could move him back to a corner for 2018 if they are unhappy with his CF defense.

 

Even if he in only a 3 WAR player moving forward that is worth 125 million over the next 5 years without factoring in inflation. With a 5/38 deal that is about 85 million in surplus value, closer to 100 million when you factor in likely FA inflation over the next 5 years.

[Oldcity]

Overall, wow.... McCutchen I get but Eaton for top pitching prospect in baseball plus two other pretty quality guys.... I was a little shocked today

 

Given the age and contract, Eaton is far more valuable than either Braun or McCutchen in a trade.

[jerichoholicninja]

What sense does it make to trade for a guy who's defense is a significant part of his value then move him to a position where his defense isn't very good?

 

That's basically what the Cubs did with Heyward last year and then would up signing Fowler so Jason went back to RF.

[Boomer5]

What sense does it make to trade for a guy who's defense is a significant part of his value then move him to a position where his defense isn't very good?

 

That's basically what the Cubs did with Heyward last year and then would up signing Fowler so Jason went back to RF.

 

Heyward. The poster boy for the "6 WAR Elite" OF.

[sveumrules]

Heyward is about as close a comp as you will find for Eaton. In the three seasons before he signed an 8 year, 184 million dollar contract Heyward hit 274/353/415 good for a 116 wRC+. Over the last three seasons Eaton has hit 290/362/422 good for a 117 wRC+.

 

Heyward is younger & has a better track record on defense, but if the market valued his skill set at 8/184 it's pretty easy to see why Eaton is a massive bargain at 5/38.

[Thurston Fluff]

What sense does it make to trade for a guy who's defense is a significant part of his value then move him to a position where his defense isn't very good?

 

As a CF with average to bad defense Eaton put up 3.1/3.7 fWAR & 5.2/3.9 bWAR in 2014/15. Werth is also a free agent after this year so they could move him back to a corner for 2018 if they are unhappy with his CF defense.

 

Even if he in only a 3 WAR player moving forward that is worth 125 million over the next 5 years without factoring in inflation. With a 5/38 deal that is about 85 million in surplus value, closer to 100 million when you factor in likely FA inflation over the next 5 years.

 

I have outlined why many times before but in this instance it worth repeating. WAR is a single number that should never be used as anything but a quick and dirty reference. It is especially poor to use it when said WAR is heavily defense skewed. It treats offense and defense equally yet they are not equal in a player's true value. The minors are littered with gold glove caliber defenders who never sniff the majors. Yet you can search a long time to find a silver slugger caliber player stuck in the minors forever. That doesn't even touch the fact the use of defensive metric in WAR are shaky at best because they use only a single season's worth of numbers. Even though it is generally accepted that it takes three seasons of defensive metrics to equal one season of offensive metrics. It's a valiant attempt at boiling everything down to one number but it fails to do so. What make matters worse is it seems to have replaced more in depth stats that actually tell us something useful. It is the anti-analytics stat IMHO and shold never be used to asses actual value beyond just a first glance.

As far as just switching him back to right they have a guy in right that is pretty good already. Possibly even better than Eaton. Of all the teams out there that could maximize his defensive value Washington the least capable of doing that. In other words this is not a Jason Heyward and the Cubs situation.

[sveumrules]

WAR is a single number that should never be used as anything but a quick and dirty reference.

 

That is all I am using it as. As a quick & dirty reference it shows that Eaton was an above average CF even with average to below average defense.

 

It is especially poor to use it when said WAR is heavily defense skewed. It treats offense and defense equally yet they are not equal in a player's true value.

 

WAR does not treat offense & defense equally, they are on entirely different scales as the number of opportunities and impact of those opportunities is different. Last year batting WAR among qualifiers ranged from 58.3 runs (Mike Trout) to -29.9 runs (Adeiny Hechavarria). Fielding WAR ranged from 22.5 runs (Adam Eaton) to -19.7 runs (Alexei Ramirez). Even the best fielder is only credited with about the same value as the 29th best hitter. Is it plausible that the very best defenders in any given season provide as much value to their team in the field as a top 30 or so hitter provides his team at the plate? I believe that is in the ballpark.

[Jenkins5]

Overall, wow.... McCutchen I get but Eaton for top pitching prospect in baseball plus two other pretty quality guys.... I was a little shocked today

 

Given the age and contract, Eaton is far more valuable than either Braun or McCutchen in a trade.

 

We are still talking about Adam Eaton for the best pitching prospect in baseball and two other good prospects. Age, contract, and etc are very nice but that is a really nice big haul for White Sox....Eaton is an under-radar/ underrated player but still. Wasn't expecting Giolito plus for him.

[Thurston Fluff]

WAR does not treat offense & defense equally, they are on entirely different scales as the number of opportunities and impact of those opportunities is different. Last year batting WAR among qualifiers ranged from 58.3 runs (Mike Trout) to -29.9 runs (Adeiny Hechavarria). Fielding WAR ranged from 22.5 runs (Adam Eaton) to -19.7 runs (Alexei Ramirez). Even the best fielder is only credited with about the same value as the 29th best hitter. Is it plausible that the very best defenders in any given season provide as much value to their team in the field as a top 30 or so hitter provides his team at the plate? I believe that is in the ballpark.

 

It still doesn't address the sample size problem. You can't use a stat in a way you know isn't accurate and expect an accurate outcome.

[danzig6767]

Have to wonder if there is something about Gioloto that the Nats didn't like. They dangled him out there back in July for Andrew Miller, then again for McCutchen recently, then finally traded him for Eaton. For such a highly rated prospect they seemed almost eager to get rid of him.

Supposedly his velocity was down and that for all of the hype about Gioloto, he wasn't dominating minor league hitters as was expected, so they wanted to cash him in before his prospect ranking declined.

 

In fact i read that most Washington fans were more bummed to lose Reynaldo Lopez than Gioloto.

 

Fangraphs had an interesting article about Gioloto the day before this trade went down.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-nationals-would-trade-lucas-giolito/

 

This is where Giolito’s value comes from. Scouts have always loved him, and as a player climbs the ladder, scouts have the bulk of the say. And this is nothing against the observers — their collective experience is important, and it means something that Giolito built such a consensus.

 

Yet with everyone, at some point, you have to want sufficient results. There’s a transition period with prospects, where they climb higher and they can no longer be powered by hype alone. Giolito’s entered that transition period, and he had a miserable brief debut in the major leagues. That then shed further attention on the fact that, even in the minors, Giolito was seldom so dominant. That would be something on its own, but this is coupled with Giolito’s stuff not looking like it used to. There’s a widening gap between Giolito’s prospect ranking and his probable reality.

 

I don’t want to read too much into Giolito’s 21.1 major-league innings. That would be unfair, and you could argue that Giolito was rushed. Anecdotally, though, it feels like most of the best young pitchers have come right up and succeeded almost out of the gate. Giolito wasn’t inconsistent — Giolito was bad. He faced 101 opponents, and they posted a .988 OPS. He rated in the 28th percentile in strike rate, and, worryingly, he rated in the fifth percentile in swinging-strike rate. Names right by him on the leaderboard I’m not making up: Ryan Vogelsong, Yovani Gallardo, Nick Martinez, and Jarred Cosart. Giolito’s supposed to be a swing-and-miss pitcher. Instead he was a more hittable Andrew Cashner.

 

Giolito did get strikeouts in the upper minors. He didn’t get a lot of strikeouts in the upper minors, and his location continues to come and go. The hype has consistently exceeded the output. And now there are even concerns about the quality of the repertoire.