Adam Eaton traded to Washington, Lucas Giolito+ to the White Sox

[StearnsFTW]

How does Eaton get Giolito plus? This must be a mistake.

 

I know, right? And Dunning is a legit prospect, former 1st Round pick, 6'4 RHP with a 0.925 WHIP and 2.02 ERA in his rookie year of MiLB. Lopez is more of a throw-in. But Giolito & Dunning for Eaton?

 

I'd be happy with Giolito & Dunning for Braun. But watta I know? (armchair GM)

 

Even worse, Lopez is a pretty great prospect too.

 

This deal could be a complete catastrophe for Washington.

 

For Adam Eaton.....

[And That]

Something is wrong with that WAR.

Two completely separate calculations arrived at about the same number. BPro's WARP was about 6 as well. According to the currently understood measures of value, 6 WAR seems to be accurate.

[Boomer5]

Something is wrong with that WAR.

Two completely separate calculations arrived at about the same number. BPro's WARP was about 6 as well. According to the currently understood measures of value, 6 WAR seems to be accurate.

 

Adam Eaton is not worth what Machado is. I'm not saying the calculations are wrong, I'm saying the data and more likely the weighting used to arrive at that conclusion are wrong.

 

Bryant is 7.7. Machado is 6.7.

 

Are analytics saying Eaton is in their class?

[ebmackenzie]

In poker when you miss a hand and take a loss then overbet/try too hard the next time it is called going FULL TILT...

 

Nationals lost their closer to SF, didn't get a bid in on Sale, and have now gone FULL TILT on Eaton.

 

Stearns is a cooler head than that.

[MrTPlush]

So I imagine everyone knocking on Eaton not wanting to use stats must watch Eaton on a daily basis to know how good he is, right? Because if not how exactly are you judging him? Since we all know no one here watches White Sox games on a consistent basis we know this isn't the case. So how do you know he isn't very good, name recognition(or lack of)?

[Boomer5]

Baseball Reference has Bryce Harper at 1.6 WAR last year. Yes he did not have a great year, but does anyone think Eaton is going to be more valuable the next 3 years than Harper?

 

Analytics has jumped the shark with this trade.

[MrTPlush]

Baseball Reference has Bryce Harper at 1.6 WAR last year. Yes he did not have a great year, but does anyone think Eaton is going to be more valuable the next 3 years than Harper?

 

Umm...who said anything remotely close to that? That argument doesn't make any sense. You are just trying to make analytics look silly with something that has nothing to do with the topic. WAR isn't calculating future value. It calculates value of that year and only that year.

 

The past three years Eaton has had a WAR of: 5.2, 3.8, and 6.2. The middle year being down due to playing CF. So yah I think it is safe to say he is a 5+ WAR player. To get 5 years of that at a ridiculously cheap price is amazing. What are the odds any of the players in this deal put up a 5 WAR consistently every year? Probably pretty low. I don't know if I would personally trade a guy like Giolito to get a 5 WAR player, but something like a Brinson/Lopez/Dunning would have seemed more in line in my opinion. Nationals probably overpaid, but it wasn't a total overpay like some think.

[Boomer5]

Baseball Reference has Bryce Harper at 1.6 WAR last year. Yes he did not have a great year, but does anyone think Eaton is going to be more valuable the next 3 years than Harper?

 

Umm...who said anything remotely close to that? That argument doesn't make any sense. You are just trying to make analytics look silly with something that has nothing to do with the topic. WAR isn't calculating future value. It calculates value of that year and only that year.

 

The past three years Eaton has had a WAR of: 5.2, 3.8, and 6.2. The middle year being down due to playing CF. So yah I think it is safe to say he is a 5+ WAR player. To get 5 years of that at a ridiculously cheap price is amazing. What are the odds any of the players in this deal put up a 5 WAR consistently every year? Probably pretty low. I don't know if I would personally trade a guy like Giolito to get a 5 WAR player, but something like a Brinson/Lopez/Dunning would have seemed more in line in my opinion. Nationals probably overpaid, but it wasn't a total overpay like some think.

 

He will be playing CF, so he is more likely to be the middle year WAR guy.

 

All that and they still don't have a closer. Just to drive me more insane than usual, what would Braun and Thornburg have netted?

[MrTPlush]

Baseball Reference has Bryce Harper at 1.6 WAR last year. Yes he did not have a great year, but does anyone think Eaton is going to be more valuable the next 3 years than Harper?

 

Umm...who said anything remotely close to that? That argument doesn't make any sense. You are just trying to make analytics look silly with something that has nothing to do with the topic. WAR isn't calculating future value. It calculates value of that year and only that year.

 

The past three years Eaton has had a WAR of: 5.2, 3.8, and 6.2. The middle year being down due to playing CF. So yah I think it is safe to say he is a 5+ WAR player. To get 5 years of that at a ridiculously cheap price is amazing. What are the odds any of the players in this deal put up a 5 WAR consistently every year? Probably pretty low. I don't know if I would personally trade a guy like Giolito to get a 5 WAR player, but something like a Brinson/Lopez/Dunning would have seemed more in line in my opinion. Nationals probably overpaid, but it wasn't a total overpay like some think.

 

He will be playing CF, so he is more likely to be the middle year WAR guy.

 

Just to drive me more insane than usual, what would Braun and Thornburg have netted?

 

Well that isn't Adam Eaton's fault.

 

 

Ignoring the fact the Nationals might not have liked either of those guys----In my heartily opinion Reynaldo Lopez/Dane Dunning/Sheldon Neuse? Probably one of those cases where neither can get a Lopez by themselves, but if you package them together you can get the more elite prospect while sacrificing talent outside of him in the deal. Maybe there is potential for another prospect or two, but not anything super notable.

[And That]

Bryant is 7.7. Machado is 6.7.

 

Are analytics saying Eaton is in their class?

I'd say no about Bryant and maybe about Machado. But I don't think it matters a whole lot about how Eaton compares to two random players you've selected.

 

You're going to have to tell me why Eaton isn't worth what the analytics say. It's your argument. I'm open to an analysis of how the metrics got Eaton all wrong. Go for it.

[reillymcshane]

The deal isn't just driven by analytics - it's value the player brings at the price he costs.

 

5 years of control at less than $40M is a great value. If Eaton was making $100M at that cost, that's a huge difference in what he's worth.

 

No one is saying that Adam Eaton is going to be as valuable on the field over the next three years as Bryce Harper or Manny Machado or whomever. Value and performance are not the same thing.

 

That said, Eaton's great defensive value surge definitely has to be taken into consideration. Defensive stats can have large fluctuations from year-to-year.

 

Also, it is a huge price to pay for any player. #3 and #38 ranked players in the minors. Plus the top pick in last year's draft. Huge price.

 

The White Sox are restocking the system overnight with some good players. Think if they deal Frazier, Abreu, Robertson, Melky, Lawrie, Shields and Quintana that they can move as well.

 

They'll struggle in 2017-18 - but they could be looking good in a couple of years.

[Boomer5]

Bryant is 7.7. Machado is 6.7.

 

Are analytics saying Eaton is in their class?

I'd say no about Bryant and maybe about Machado. But I don't think it matters a whole lot about how Eaton compares to two random players you've selected.

 

You're going to have to tell me why Eaton isn't worth what the analytics say. It's your argument. I'm open to an analysis of how the metrics got Eaton all wrong. Go for it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11205&position=OF

 

Check out his 2017 projections, for starters.

 

Then look at his advanced fielding in CF, where he will play.

[MKE81]

Maybe I'm old school, but to put it another way, if the Brewers traded Braun straight up for Adam Eaton, I think most Brewer fans would burn Miller Park to the ground.

 

Eaton is half the price and way younger. Ryan Braun is a bit better offensively, but Eaton makes up for any gap with his defense. Eaton is in his prime while Braun is likely to decline. I can't understand why anyone would even think about wanting Braun over Eaton. Honestly you can use any way to grade out the two players and Eaton>Braun. It is a no brainer in my opinion. Seems like the people getting paid to run baseball teams for real also think that too. We probably couldn't have even gotten Reynoldo Lopez for Braun, but Eaton got a Top 5 MLB Prospect plus Lopez plus a 1st round selection. Lets put 2 and 2 together.

Stop making sense. Everyone knows that people on this board have the best pulse on everything know to man. People can't even analyze the Thornburg deal how can you expect that to happen here. I love that people are saying analytics are wrong. My goodness

[And That]

How does a future projection reflect his actual performance?

 

How does citing WAR disprove WAR?

 

Would you acknowledge that player performance can vary from year to year? Would it be impossible for a player who normally should put up a 3 WAR, to put up a 6 WAR?

 

Would you acknowledge that some players, for some reason, have results that routinely defy regression in some skills areas?

[And That]

people on this board

Like you?

[JosephC]

Washington must believe that Eaton is entering his age 28 season and therefore his offense will take another jump and he'll be a legitimate .850+ OPS guy over the next four or five seasons. IMO the defense has really overinflated his WAR. His DRS in 2016 was a sick +22 but he hadn't played much RF prior to that. In 2015 in CF his DRS was a -14 and in 2014 his DRS was a +11 (UZR/150 on the negative side both seasons). If he's in CF or if those defensive metrics in right field return to "good but not insanely good" levels then Eaton is probably somewhere between a 3 and 4 WAR player assuming no further offensive improvement. Still excellent value when considering his contract, but not so good that a team surrenders a top 10 overall prospect for him (much less a top 5 and another in the top 40).

[Boomer5]

How does a future projection reflect his actual performance?

 

How does citing WAR disprove WAR?

 

Would you acknowledge that player performance can vary from year to year? Would it be impossible for a player who normally should put up a 3 WAR, to put up a 6 WAR?

 

Would you acknowledge that some players, for some reason, have results that routinely defy regression in some skills areas?

 

The stats say he is scary bad in CF, where he will play. That's why projections say he will be a 2 plus WAR player.

 

On offense he is a 790 guy. Not bad, but hardly the stuff of let's mortgage our entire farm system. Bad D and sub 800 offense. Sounds like an elite CF to you?

 

For what's it's worth, people seem to think he was also a bad clubhouse guy since he was part of the Sale/LaRoache clique.

 

Nothing available says Eaton is going to be quality CF for the Nationals. Cheap yes. Elite no. Your move.

[Boomer5]

Washington must believe that Eaton is entering his age 28 season and therefore his offense will take another jump and he'll be a legitimate .850+ OPS guy over the next four or five seasons. IMO the defense has really overinflated his WAR. His DRS in 2016 was a sick +22 but he hadn't played much RF prior to that. In 2015 in CF his DRS was a -14 and in 2014 his DRS was a +11 (UZR/150 on the negative side both seasons). If he's in CF or if those defensive metrics in right field return to "good but not insanely good" levels then Eaton is probably somewhere between a 3 and 4 WAR player assuming no further offensive improvement. Still excellent value when considering his contract, but not so good that a team surrenders a top 10 overall prospect for him (much less a top 5 and another in the top 40).

 

Agreed and very well phrased.

[MrTPlush]

Washington must believe that Eaton is entering his age 28 season and therefore his offense will take another jump.

 

Eaton is probably somewhere between a 3 and 4 WAR player assuming no further offensive improvement.

 

He doesn't need to improve at all.

 

His offense averaged 4 WAR in 2014 and 2016. In 2015 his oWAR was 5.4.

 

 

They are going to lose his defensive value playing a corner if he plays a ton of CF(which always makes me go crazy in trades), but he is still a 4+ WAR player even if his defense grades out as zero. I would have kept him in one of the corners...but what do I know. Honestly I think both of these teams got great value and I would be hard pressed to say anyone won/lost this deal today.

[Jenkins5]

Well since I have often in the past said Brett Phillips will likely be a very similar player as Adam Eaton and he is my main comparison for Maverick..... This deal makes me pretty happy lol

 

Overall, wow.... McCutchen I get but Eaton for top pitching prospect in baseball plus two other pretty quality guys.... I was a little shocked today

[And That]

Your move.

Most of what you said was forward looking. I'm still trying to determine why you think he wasn't worth 6 WAR last year.

 

I think he's probably a 3ish WAR player going forward. Maybe more depending on how his defense is, wherever he ends up playing. It wouldn't surprise me to see him post another 6 WAR; it wouldn't surprise me to see him post a 1 WAR if the bottom falls out of his D in CF. The Nationals, who I assume employee some pretty smart people in their analytics department, seem to tend towards the former.

[And That]

His DRS in 2016 was a sick +22 but he hadn't played much RF prior to that. In 2015 in CF his DRS was a -14 and in 2014 his DRS was a +11 (UZR/150 on the negative side both seasons).

I do think that it is important to acknowledge the volatility and imprecision of defensive metrics, but by the same token the existence of volatility and imprecision do not mean the individual results were themselves imprecise.

 

The best answer for how good Eaton actually was defensively last year probably comes from a mix of the statistical results and first hand impressions from watching him play for an extended period of time. To that end, I bet Washington's scouts (and Rizzo himself is a very well regarded scout) gave the thumbs up on whether or not they thought his glove would play in center.

 

I hardly saw him play defense at all last year so I can't really comment on the subjective first-hand viewing piece of it. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility he was really, really good in the outfield last year, so I tend to defer to the metrics available.

[MrTPlush]

Your move.

Most of what you said was forward looking. I'm still trying to determine why you think he wasn't worth 6 WAR last year.

 

I think he's probably a 3ish WAR player going forward. Maybe more depending on how his defense is, wherever he ends up playing. It wouldn't surprise me to see him post another 6 WAR; it wouldn't surprise me to see him post a 1 WAR if the bottom falls out of his D in CF. The Nationals, who I assume employee some pretty smart people in their analytics department, seem to tend towards the former.

 

Seems like a bit of a negative prediction when he has posted a 4+ WAR offensively alone. If he falls to 1 WAR he either broke his leg or is swinging a pool noodle. 3 WAR is worst case scenario and only because they stick him in CF which is their own dumb fault. He could be a 5+ WAR player if they kept him at a corner.

[JosephC]

His DRS in 2016 was a sick +22 but he hadn't played much RF prior to that. In 2015 in CF his DRS was a -14 and in 2014 his DRS was a +11 (UZR/150 on the negative side both seasons).

I do think that it is important to acknowledge the volatility and imprecision of defensive metrics, but by the same token the existence of volatility and imprecision do not mean the individual results were themselves imprecise.

 

The best answer for how good Eaton actually was defensively last year probably comes from a mix of the statistical results and first hand impressions from watching him play for an extended period of time. To that end, I bet Washington's scouts (and Rizzo himself is a very well regarded scout) gave the thumbs up on whether or not they thought his glove would play in center.

 

I hardly saw him play defense at all last year so I can't really comment on the subjective first-hand viewing piece of it. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility he was really, really good in the outfield last year, so I tend to defer to the metrics available.

 

I'm in no way saying that the +22 DRS number is inaccurate. I'm assuming the DRS on Fangraph's comes from the same folks that publish The Fielding Bible of which I am a buyer. I trust their methodology and tend to place DRS higher than UZR/150 when attempting to evaluate the defensive ability of a player. But on the flip side, Eaton's 2016 performance does Washington no good moving forward. And when there is a corner outfielder that posts a sub-.800 OPS and has a +22 DRS then nearly half of his value comes from defense and I have to question how legitimate it is to think that value will project forward into future seasons. And I love Eaton's contract and realize the value there but the Nationals traded a pitcher that projects as a staff ace, a second pitcher that probably projects as a #2/#3 and yet another good prospect on top of that for a corner outfielder that hasn't posted an .800 OPS yet (or an average fielding centerfielder that hasn't posted an .800 OPS yet).

 

I'm a big believer in sabermetrics but sometimes find it useful to go back and take a look at some of the "old school" numbers to put some perspective on things. Total bases is an obvious favorite. Looked it up and Eaton was 58th in MLB last year (265). Couldn't help but notice that Villar was just above him, tied for 53rd with 269. Villar also had a higher OBP (.369 versus .362). I really didn't need to go any further than this. I can't see it as being anything other than a massive overpay by the Nationals.

[And That]

Seems like a bit of a negative prediction when he has posted a 4+ WAR offensively alone.

He's posted a pretty high BABIP the past few seasons so I'm accounting for a bit of offensive regression. Maybe a .340ish BABIP is indicative of his true talent level, but I tend to doubt it. And even he does post a few more high BABIPs, it seems that if they stick him in CF that could actually detract from his overall value.