Adam Eaton traded to Washington, Lucas Giolito+ to the White Sox

[MillerParkSouth]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/white-sox-trade-adam-eaton-nationals.html

 

White Sox are really doing well in the trades they've made in the last couple of days.

 

Rosenthal: Source confirms: #Nationals, if deal is completed, will send Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning and Reynaldo Lopez to #WhiteSox for Eaton.

[3and2Fastball]

The Nationals are weird. Eaton is pretty good but not elite.

 

Makes me wonder how much we can get in a trade for one of Ray/Phillips/Brinson if all 3 develop to Eaton's 117 OPS+ .790 OPS, 15 HR 15 SB level

[nate82]

How does Eaton get Giolito plus? This must be a mistake.

[patrickgpe]

this one puzzles me, what was washington thinking

[3and2Fastball]

How does Eaton get Giolito plus? This must be a mistake.

 

I know, right? And Dunning is a legit prospect, former 1st Round pick, 6'4 RHP with a 0.925 WHIP and 2.02 ERA in his rookie year of MiLB. Lopez is more of a throw-in. But Giolito & Dunning for Eaton?

 

I'd be happy with Giolito & Dunning for Braun. But watta I know? (armchair GM)

[narwhalattack]

I was about to ask if Eaton was THAT good...

 

Based on this, the Brewers may get a haul for Braun.

[homer]

I'd expect Giolito for Braun. For Eaton? Huh?

[And That]

Eaton is a really good player making not a lot of money for the next four years. 6 WAR in 2016 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Ref.

[MillerParkSouth]

Eaton is pretty good and also is relatively cheap for the next 5 years. Unfortunately, with McCutcheon out there still and obviously not going to Washington anymore, I think this could hurt a potential Braun trade.

[homer]

Man if the White Sox trade Quintana they could have a sick system almost overnight.

[shanedog19]

The White Sox are absolutely dominating these winter meetings. We should get a great haul for Braun.

[sveumrules]

Eaton has essentially 3/20 guaranteed on his deal. With the options exercised it could be 5/38. So he's cheap.

 

His last three years have been worth 3.1, 3.7 & 6.0 fWAR. His OBP those three years have been 362, 361 & 362 with wRC+ marks of 118, 119 & 115 so the error bars around his offensive projections are much smaller. Teams like consistency.

 

His WAR exploded last year as both UZR & DRS had him +20 in RF, I imagine Washington will play him in CF where he hasn't graded out as highly in the past.

 

Let's say he is a 2.5-3.0 true talent WAR player going forward. That is worth about 20-25 million a year on the free agent market or around 100-125 million over the five years he is under control so his surplus value comes in pretty safely in the range of 60-85 million.

[3and2Fastball]

yeah I suppose I wasn't factoring in Eaton's defense, it isn't like he is a terrible player. I guess it depends on if you believe the Giolito hype. Dunning will just be in A ball this year, so too soon to tell

[paul253]

The white sox just added two of the top three overall prospects in a matter of days. And they still have several very good trade chips. If they commit to a full scale firesale lookout for them in a few years.

[3and2Fastball]

I wonder how much McCutchen still being out there will effect Braun's trade value. Cutch is younger and better on defense and more durable, though Braun was better offensively last year

[adambr2]

I don't know what the White Sox farm was ranked 2 days ago, but it's got to be #1 now.

[splitterpfj]

This trade was driven by, "WAR", and "team control" ..... an excellent player, who is signed, and I would guess the Nats had a competitor in the bidding.

 

It's definitely a great haul for the White Sox, and I think a lesson for all of us, including me - I wouldn't have expected it either.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Eaton as a corner OF was fantastic defensively last season - Eaton as a CF was good enough to be shifted to a corner OF spot even though his offensive production projects that he should be playing CF. His surge in WAR came entirely from the defensive side of things, and was entirely attributable to the position switch.

 

yes, he's got years of team control built into a reasonable contract, but this trade may not work out too well for the Nats if Eaton gets put back in center and runs into the same defensive issues that led to him switching positions with the White Sox.

[Boomer5]

Wow. That trade is based on analytics, not on reality.

 

No way on this planet is Eaton worth that.

 

If we knew a package like this was out there we needed to find a way to get it.

[adambr2]

Wow. That trade is based on analytics, not on reality.

 

No way on this planet is Eaton worth that.

 

If we knew a package like this was out there we needed to find a way to get it.

 

We couldn't have, because Eaton and Braun aren't comparable players.

 

A player is worth whatever a team will give up for him. Just the way it is. We can say til we're blue in the face that Braun should be worth a top 25 and top 50 but if no one will give us that, he's not.

[3and2Fastball]

Braun can't play CF. We don't have a 4-6 WAR CF right now who is available to trade. Personally I think Bryce Harper might be a better defensive CF than Eaton, but then again I'm an armchair GM

[Boomer5]

Wow. That trade is based on analytics, not on reality.

 

No way on this planet is Eaton worth that.

 

If we knew a package like this was out there we needed to find a way to get it.

 

We couldn't have, because Eaton and Braun aren't comparable players.

 

A player is worth whatever a team will give up for him. Just the way it is. We can say til we're blue in the face that Braun should be worth a top 25 and top 50 but if no one will give us that, he's not.

 

I hear what you are saying but I'm having a difficult time imagining a baseball man with a team that needs to win now wanting Eaton over Braun.

 

Maybe I'm old school, but to put it another way, if the Brewers traded Braun straight up for Adam Eaton, I think most Brewer fans would burn Miller Park to the ground.

[Boomer5]

Braun can't play CF. We don't have a 4-6 WAR CF right now who is available to trade. Personally I think Bryce Harper might be a better defensive CF than Eaton, but then again I'm an armchair GM

 

Exactly, Harper can and Braun would play left.

 

The Nationals think they are an Adam Eaton away from a WS title? Is that even a viable sentence for any GM?

[Boomer5]

Eaton is a really good player making not a lot of money for the next four years. 6 WAR in 2016 by both FanGraphs and Baseball Ref.

 

Something is wrong with that WAR. Is analytics saying Eaton is worth about the same as Manny Machado?

 

Plus he earned that 6.2 in right, and he'd play CF where is supposed to not be as good.

 

I'll have what Rizzo is having.

[MrTPlush]

Maybe I'm old school, but to put it another way, if the Brewers traded Braun straight up for Adam Eaton, I think most Brewer fans would burn Miller Park to the ground.

 

Eaton is half the price and way younger. Ryan Braun is a bit better offensively, but Eaton makes up for any gap with his defense. Eaton is in his prime while Braun is likely to decline. I can't understand why anyone would even think about wanting Braun over Eaton. Honestly you can use any way to grade out the two players and Eaton>Braun. It is a no brainer in my opinion. Seems like the people getting paid to run baseball teams for real also think that too. We probably couldn't have even gotten Reynoldo Lopez for Braun, but Eaton got a Top 5 MLB Prospect plus Lopez plus a 1st round selection. Lets put 2 and 2 together.