Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[homer]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible.

 

 

I mean...the Brewers traded for Zach Greinke and CC Sabathia not so long ago.

[sveumrules]

For those underwhelmed with the return, what deal can you recall where a reliever with one good season has been traded for a "quality" prospect? I mentioned Carson Smith earlier in the thread who had five years of control remaining when the Red Sox acquired him last winter for Wade Miley & Jonathan Aro with Seattle also sending Roenis Elias to Boston in the deal.

 

Something else to consider is Thornburg has had elbow issues in both 2014 & 2015 which combined with his limited track record of success further depresses his value. Sure we might have gotten a haul had we held out until the deadline & Tyler stayed healthy & continued to pitch like he did this last summer, but there's also a very real chance Thorny would get hurt or his production would slip with his value falling accordingly.

 

The calculus for me comes down to this, we know what we got for Tyler today. We can hypothesize what he might have demanded at the deadline. It looks like Stearns & company decided the marginally better return we might have gotten in 3-4 months wasn't worth the risk of injury or declining results. Not to mention this move opens up the closer spot so we can still maybe deal a "proven closer" at the deadline when prices for relief help increase.

[Sixto]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible.

 

 

I mean...the Brewers traded for Zach Greinke and CC Sabathia not so long ago.

 

We rented them. One rental a bit longer than the other with zero chance of ever keeping either of them.

[danzig6767]

I just can't get on board with this move. The reliever market was insane last year at the deadline. For Will Smith alone we got a top 100 starting pitcher prospect (and our #5). Not to mention what we got from Texas by throwing Jeffress in the Lucroy trade. Thornburg was probably better than both of those guys and if he put up numbers even close to last years he probably could have gotten us another very quality starting pitching prospect, which this system still desperately needs. Others said it but this is quantity over quality. We need quality.

I pretty much agree with this. There's risk in holding on to Thornburg and him getting hurt/not being productive but I'd take that risk.

I'd put it this way. If i was a Boston fan, i'd like this trade.

 

Sure Dubon could potentially become quality starting caliber, but he isn't the type of prospect where as a Sox fan i'd think damn, i really wish he wasn't included in this trade. Pennington is like so many A ball hard throwers who need to learn command and polish of secondary pitches. It's a long climb to the majors for those types and many more end up failing to make it than who do. Maybe for the Brewers we catch a break and Pennington becomes one of those who make it, but he's the exact type of pitcher contenders often throw into trades, knowing the odds are against regretting doing so.

[Mass Haas]

Via the Boston Globe's Alex Speier --

 

Almost forgot to mention... Josh Pennington had undergone surgery to remove a bone chip, but should be healthy for spring training w/MIL.

[jerichoholicninja]

For those underwhelmed with the return, what deal can you recall where a reliever with one good season has been traded for a "quality" prospect?

 

Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him.

 

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control cheaply for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible. Playing the "hope the stars align in 5 years" vs "sign who you need and keep who you want" is discouraging to watch.

 

This trade has nothing to do with that.

[Boomer5]

A 28 year old reliever with a 0.94 wip and 12k/9 in his first year of arby and 3 more years of control are incredibly rare. None of the guys we got back are rare. Shaw is just a guy, Pennington needs polish, and Dubon is while definitely interesting, he isn't exactly in a position we as an organization need.

 

The issue really is; is Thornburg in his prime or did he have a rare healthy flukey season?

[adambr2]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control cheaply for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible. Playing the "hope the stars align in 5 years" vs "sign who you need and keep who you want" is discouraging to watch.

 

It's really not as bad as it seems right now, IMO. Mark A has the ability to push the payroll well north of 100M if need be. There just isn't a need right now.

[adambr2]

A 28 year old reliever with a 0.94 wip and 12k/9 in his first year of arby and 3 more years of control are incredibly rare. None of the guys we got back are rare. Shaw is just a guy, Pennington needs polish, and Dubon is while definitely interesting, he isn't exactly in a position we as an organization need.

 

The issue really is; is Thornburg in his prime or did he have a rare healthy flukey season?

 

Agree with the last sentence, and that's why I'm sure we wanted to sell rather than find out.

 

Couldn't care less than Dubon doesn't play a position of need, though. If he goes to Colorado Springs and hits .300 and plays elite defense at SS, that is a tremendous benefit, and we'll figure out how to deal with it then.

[paul253]

"For those underwhelmed with the return, what deal can you recall where a reliever with one good season has been traded for a "quality" prospect"

 

I think people are exaggerating a bit when they say Thornburg has only had one good year. He's been solid ever since he came up despite being bounced between the rotation and the bulllen. And I forget if it was 2014 or 2015 but he was off to a very good start before breaking down due to overuse. The fact is he's a 28 year old with three more years of control who has a career ERA under 3 with more strikeouts than innings pitched AND who excelled the moment he was moved to the closers role.

 

Additionally, even if you want to use the one good season argument, wouldn't it then make more sense to hang onto him to see if he can put up another stellar year and increase his value even more? Unless of course you think his season was a fluke (Junior Guerra????) But there is no reason he was just going to fall off the cliff next year. Even if he wasn't as good as last year, a sub 3.00 ERA was, if not likely, at least a strong possibility. If the relief market was even close to what it was last year you could easily have gotten a top 75, if not top 50 starting pitching prospect for him. Instead they settled for a guy with limited major league success, a low level prospect who can't throw strikes, and a good but not great middle infield prospect. I'm certainly rooting for the new guys to succeed but I think we could have done better.

[homer]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible.

 

 

I mean...the Brewers traded for Zach Greinke and CC Sabathia not so long ago.

 

We rented them. One rental a bit longer than the other with zero chance of ever keeping either of them.

 

That's a different topic then. Brewers can and have traded for top tier pitching. We aren't talking about signing a free agent.

[danzig6767]

FWIW, i decided to see what Red Sox fans thought of this trade on a popular Sox forum.

 

About 90 percent either liked it or loved it and thought they got Thornburg on the cheap.

[sveumrules]

Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him.

 

In that season and a half before Giles was traded he had 115 IPs with a 1.56 ERA/1.82 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers were both 4th among all relievers in that time. Over the last two years Thorny has 101 IPs with a 2.66 ERA/3.61 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers rank 31st/67th among all relievers in that time. So Giles was younger, had more success, more team control & from what I could find no history of arm problems when dealt. Add it all up & I can see why he commanded more of a return than Tyler.

 

It should also be noted that both players we've been able to find so far as trade comps for Thorny had underwhelming results or almost no results due to injury in the season following their trades, offering a snapshot of the volatility exhibited by all relievers, but especially ones with a limited record of consistent results.

[rickh150]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible.

 

 

I mean...the Brewers traded for Zach Greinke and CC Sabathia not so long ago.

 

 

 

Couldn't keep either...... plus, we are living in a different baseball world than 2008-2011. Big market tv deals blew up big market team payrolls. All playoff teams, shy of Cleveland, had a 150 million plus payroll in 2016.

[craigharmann]

For those underwhelmed with the return, what deal can you recall where a reliever with one good season has been traded for a "quality" prospect?

 

Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him.

 

 

Look up how that "haul" fared in Philly. That's the thing about prospects....the can't miss sometimes do miss.

[adambr2]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible.

 

 

I mean...the Brewers traded for Zach Greinke and CC Sabathia not so long ago.

 

 

 

Couldn't keep either...... plus, we are living in a different baseball world than 2008-2011. Big market tv deals blew up big market team payrolls. All playoff teams, shy of Cleveland, had a 150 million plus payroll in 2016.

 

Not really. Obviously the pie is bigger now but large market teams with bigger pockets have always had gobs of money to spend versus smaller market teams. This isn't something unique to 2016.

 

In 2015, 4 out of the 10 playoff teams had payrolls in the bottom half of the league, including both World Series teams.

 

Is it a perfectly fair system across the board, no, and it never will be. Obviously teams that have more money to spend have an advantage in free agency and retaining their own. But the current system of 6 years of control (closer to 7 if they are mindful to service time restraints), does give the smaller markets a way to compete if they build their franchise the right way.

[HighHeat19]

I just can't get on board with this move. The reliever market was insane last year at the deadline. For Will Smith alone we got a top 100 starting pitcher prospect (and our #5). Not to mention what we got from Texas by throwing Jeffress in the Lucroy trade. Thornburg was probably better than both of those guys and if he put up numbers even close to last years he probably could have gotten us another very quality starting pitching prospect, which this system still desperately needs. Others said it but this is quantity over quality. We need quality.

 

I pretty much agree with this. There's risk in holding on to Thornburg and him getting hurt/not being productive but I'd take that risk.

 

What's the risk? A non playoff team is still a non playoff team. The few extra wins Thornburg might buy you is not going to change the outcome of the proposed goal of 2019 and beyond. So your goal is either A) win now with Thornburg, B) keep Thornburg and hope he plays at the same level and doesn't get hurt and flip him at trade deadline, or C) trade him for the package we currently got.

 

I take C) just because of the Brewers current situation of the rebuild mode. Thornburg gets injured or implodes (which is likely due to his history) you get nothing. And who says you will get an even better package than what was offered today come July?

[Ennder]

Feeling a little melancholy.

The Red Sox get Thornburg and Sale today.

The Brewers get guys that they can control cheaply for a long time.

Why there isn't a bigger uproar over a level playing field in the MLB, I don't know. Every other sport has it. Certainly not my intention of derailing this thread with revenue talk, but it's hard to get excited when we have to operate on a level 10 tiers below the rich. I commend Stearns for doing what he has to do and how he has to do it, but some days the task just seems impossible. Playing the "hope the stars align in 5 years" vs "sign who you need and keep who you want" is discouraging to watch.

 

Boston had a losing record 3 of the past 4 years as they went through a mini rebuild. Cubs had 5 straight losing years while they did a rebuild. Now these teams are the buyers in the market. That is just how baseball works. This has very little to do with payroll fairness.

 

Also if you think the other sports are 'fair' because of salary caps you really do not understand the economics of sports. It is harder to turn around an NFL franchise that is losing than an MLB one. Basketball is just more random since hitting big on just 1 or 2 players is all you need.

[LouisEly]

Some random thoughts:

 

1) Surprised it took until the 9th page to mention a comp to the Will Smith trade. That is what I thought of immediately. Not entirely apples-to-apples - WS is LH, but never was a closer. How does what the Brewers got compare to Susac/Bickford? Sounds like Pennington would have been a high draft pick if he weren't injured in HS, so maybe it's comparable. I think I like Susac/Bickford a little better.

 

B) I don't think Isan Diaz is that much of an apples-to-apples to Dubon, as Diaz is much more of a power hitter (20 HR vs 6 for Dubon) and a higher walk rate. Dubon's OPS comes from a high batting average helped by a spike with 9 triples last year. Not sure Dubon can sustain what he did in AA. That being said, Dubon is a SS whereas Diaz is a 2B.

 

C) Thornburg gave up runs in each of his last four appearances, blowing three saves. Maybe he was tired, maybe it was a due regress, maybe the past elbow issues were flaring up. If it was the last one, then this is a very good trade, but Boston might file a grievance.

 

D) Overall, I'm kind of meh. If Thornburg continues what he did last year then I think there is a good chance the Brewers don't win this one. If the elbow issues come back, then they did win it.

[LouisEly]

What's the risk? A non playoff team is still a non playoff team.

The risk is that the Brewers could get better prospects for Thornburg next July if Thornburg repeats his 2016.

[DHonks]

Given that Thorny had an amazing half season and his elbow is held together by duct tape and chewing game thanks to a PRP injection, I think this is the epitome of selling high. I like the haul.

[Ennder]

Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him.

 

In that season and a half before Giles was traded he had 115 IPs with a 1.56 ERA/1.82 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers were both 4th among all relievers in that time. Over the last two years Thorny has 101 IPs with a 2.66 ERA/3.61 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers rank 31st/67th among all relievers in that time. So Giles was younger, had more success, more team control & from what I could find no history of arm problems when dealt. Add it all up & I can see why he commanded more of a return than Tyler.

 

It should also be noted that both players we've been able to find so far as trade comps for Thorny had underwhelming results or almost no results due to injury in the season following their trades, offering a snapshot of the volatility exhibited by all relievers, but especially ones with a limited record of consistent results.

 

 

Yeah he was 4 years younger and if you asked the Astros today if it was worth it they would probably say no since he didn't have a good year. Giles is the example of why you make this deal because it is so easy for a really good RP to get off to a bad start and kill his value.

[paul253]

So your goal is either A) win now with Thornburg, B) keep Thornburg and hope he plays at the same level and doesn't get hurt and flip him at trade deadline, or C) trade him for the package we currently got.

 

I would have picked B. Thornburg was lights out most of the year. If he came even close to what he did last season the return would have been increased, particularly if the reliever trade market was similar. I realize it's a couple of big "ifs" but it's not like Thornburg had to be traded next year. If he had a down year you hang onto him and try again in 2018. I just can't help but feel as though we could have done better.

 

And again it's not like he was a bad pitcher who just had a good year. He's been a pretty solid pitcher his entire career.

[jerichoholicninja]

For those underwhelmed with the return, what deal can you recall where a reliever with one good season has been traded for a "quality" prospect?

 

Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him.

 

 

Look up how that "haul" fared in Philly. That's the thing about prospects....the can't miss sometimes do miss.

 

I'm not sure what you're referring to. Vince Velasquez put up a perfectly average 100 ERA+ and struck out over 10/9 at 24 in his first full big league season.

[jerichoholicninja]

Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him.

 

In that season and a half before Giles was traded he had 115 IPs with a 1.56 ERA/1.82 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers were both 4th among all relievers in that time. Over the last two years Thorny has 101 IPs with a 2.66 ERA/3.61 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers rank 31st/67th among all relievers in that time. So Giles was younger, had more success, more team control & from what I could find no history of arm problems when dealt. Add it all up & I can see why he commanded more of a return than Tyler.

 

It should also be noted that both players we've been able to find so far as trade comps for Thorny had underwhelming results or almost no results due to injury in the season following their trades, offering a snapshot of the volatility exhibited by all relievers, but especially ones with a limited record of consistent results.

 

 

Yeah he was 4 years younger and if you asked the Astros today if it was worth it they would probably say no since he didn't have a good year. Giles is the example of why you make this deal because it is so easy for a really good RP to get off to a bad start and kill his value.

 

Giles had a couple bad months to start the season, otherwise he was his dominating self and regained the closer spot halfway through the year.