Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[HighHeat19]

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Stearns on Travis Shaw, "We like players with versatility. I'm sure you'll see him at all 3 positions (3B,1B,LF)." #Brewers

 

"As David Stearns takes his pen and taps the brim of the cap of the Ryan Braun bobble head that resides on his desk".

[reillymcshane]

2017 Milwaukee Brewers (thus far)

 

C - Maldonado/Susac/Pina (pick 2)

1B - Thames

2B - Villar

SS - Arcia

3B - Shaw

INF - Perez

INF - Rivera?

LF - Braun

CF - Broxton

RF - Santana

OF - Kirk N.

OF - Reed? or someone else

 

SP - Anderson, Peralta, Nelson, Davies, Garza, Guerra

RP - Knebel (CL), Barnes, Torres, Marinez, Cravy, Blazek, Scahill (L), Suter (L)

 

Not all the pitchers will make the club, but there are bound to be injuries.

 

Of course, if Braun is traded, it opens up the door for a lot of other stuff to happen.

[pacopete4]

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Stearns on Travis Shaw, "We like players with versatility. I'm sure you'll see him at all 3 positions (3B,1B,LF)." #Brewers

 

 

Goodbye Scooter.

[JDBrewCrew]

FanGraphs Analysis of the Trade

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/red-sox-get-underrated-reliever-for-underrated-return/

 

Travis Shaw is the familiar name. He’ll be the Brewers’ new third baseman, and as unexciting as he is, he’s 26, and they could have him for five years. He’s been worth exactly 3 big-league WAR in 778 plate appearances. He’s looked more or less like a league-average player, and though he struggles against lefties, and while he was somewhat exposed with more playing time, and while he also has done most of his hitting in Boston, a player like this has value just for purposes of deepening a lineup. Shaw is legitimately useful, right now, and he’ll cost the Brewers almost nothing. He’ll probably give them about the same WAR as Thornburg would’ve.

 

Josh Pennington is less familiar, and he has yet to pitch above low-A. Even there, his performance wasn’t terrific. He’s a long-shot, but he’s also a quick riser, having come back from surgery throwing consistently in the mid-90s. Pennington became one of the Red Sox’ better pitching prospects, and even if he can’t keep it up as a starter, he has a power repertoire that would be easy to imagine in relief. There’s something there.

 

And yet Mauricio Dubon is the piece I like the most. It doesn’t take a lot of investigation to figure out why — he’s a 22-year-old shortstop who just ran a 151 wRC+ in a half-season in Double-A. By the numbers, Dubon looks promising, and there are signs of very encouraging growth.

 

Not even that long ago, Dubon profiled as a slap-hitter. In 2015, he ran a ground-ball rate of 56%. In high-A at the start of 2016, that rate was 52%. After Dubon moved up to Double-A, that rate dropped to 43%. Not only were there more balls in the air, but pretty good power followed. You can see it in the ISO, and you can see it in the locations. Two years ago, Dubon pulled 20% of his batted balls that went to the outfield. This past half-season, he pulled 36% of his batted balls that went to the outfield. In short: Dubon put balls in the air, and he increasingly directed them to left. After a 2015 in which he finished with 29 extra-base hits, he just had 32 in Double-A alone, in half the time.

 

If it sticks, that’s great. If it doesn’t, welp. Sometimes prospects do have random spikes, and if Dubon regresses, he looks more like a utility sort. But, for example, Aledmys Diaz recently had a sudden power spike in the minors that he translated into the majors, allowing him to come out of nowhere. Dubon is now a legitimately exciting prospect, one more young guy for the Brewers to expect to debut in the nearer-term future.

 

From the Brewers’ standpoint, this is almost a no-brainer. You never know when Thornburg could regress or break down, and strikeout relievers presently have very high value. They’re not really to be considered long-term assets. From the Red Sox’ standpoint, Thornburg is really good, right now, and he fills a gap. The Red Sox are trying to win a World Series as soon as they can, and Thornburg makes them deeper. All of the very best prospects are still in the system. But there is a good amount of value here changing hands.

[monty57]

I like this thought from the MLBtraderumors write-up about the trade:

 

Alternatively, Milwaukee could lure a second- or third-tier arm to their rebuilding club on an affordable deal with the promise of offering an opportunity to close out games. In addition to providing the Brewers with some needed veteran stability in the ’pen, that tactic could also yield yet another midseason trade chip if he ultimately performs well in a high-leverage role.

 

Making a reliever a closer is the easiest way to add value to a player, so this is the direction I would go.

[sveumrules]

Exactly, Monty. Sure we could have kept Thorny until the deadline and hoped another four months of dominant relief work boosted his stock, but one injury and his value is completely torpedoed.

 

By trading him now and letting the Red Sox take on that risk we can install someone else in the closer's role and hopefully flip them at the deadline for even more future assets.

[Boomer5]

I like this thought from the MLBtraderumors write-up about the trade:

 

Alternatively, Milwaukee could lure a second- or third-tier arm to their rebuilding club on an affordable deal with the promise of offering an opportunity to close out games. In addition to providing the Brewers with some needed veteran stability in the ’pen, that tactic could also yield yet another midseason trade chip if he ultimately performs well in a high-leverage role.

 

Making a reliever a closer is the easiest way to add value to a player, so this is the direction I would go.

 

Knebel could be the next guy to get traded at the deadline if he picks up the closer role. His K numbers profile as the kind of guy that will get a nice July haul.

[3and2Fastball]

I see this trade as a good example of Stearns staying ahead of the curve, the price of relief pitchers is ridiculous these days. And there are more and more pitchers arriving every year who can throw upper 90's or higher

 

Thornburg gave us 67 innings last year. It might be different if he was a 120 inning "fireman" type, but I don't think he can ever reliably be that kind of guy because of injury concerns.

 

If you look at the return we got for W Smith & Thornburg, both of whom are good but neither is a Chapman or Wade Davis, that is really maximizing leverage in a positive way.

[harrydalton]

I see the exchange value as in line with other trades by Stearns.

 

They need another LH power bat. Shaw can play 3B, apparently well enough, 1B and outfield. He's controllable in the long term. Right now, Shaw is what he is, but sometimes these guys bloom in their later 20's. Consistently with one type of player they've been picking up - guys like Broxton, Susac, Villar, Perez, etc.

 

They had no higher level SS prospect that can hit. Isan Diaz will be a 2B. I would expect to see Dubon assigned to AA. Diaz could be jumped to AA, but it would be as a 2B. If he's assigned to A+, he'd probably play SS another year because they have a number of decent 2B candidates.

 

Hope that Pennington at least can provide bullpen depth in three years when they should have started getting pretty good.

[Mass Haas]

Biloxi's Chris Harris found this --

 

[MoreTrife]

So excited for minor league season to start. With so much talent inject there are bound to be some great performances.

[Yount19]

Biloxi's Chris Harris found this --

 

That video alone makes me want to pull for this kid.. good head on his shoulders except for being a Yankees fan..

[JDBrewCrew]

From John Sickel's write up of the trade...

 

Mauricio Dubon, SS: Dubon is originally from Honduras but moved to the United States for high school and was drafted in the 26th round in 2013, from Capital Christian in Sacramento, California. His 2015 and 2016 seasons were very successful: he rang up a .288/.349/.376 line in Low-A and High-A in '15, followed by a .323/.379/.461 mark in '16 split between High-A and Double-A. He was particularly effective late in the year with a .538 SLG in 62 games for Portland.

 

Despite his power surge this year, Dubon isn't a big guy, listed at just 6-0, 160. A right-handed hitter, his best tool is above-average running speed; he swiped 30 bases in both '15 and '16. An efficient contact hitter, he's not a walk machine but makes contact and showed greater ability to drive the ball for distance in '16 thanks to physical maturity. He's not expected to hit a large number of home runs but should provide enough pop to the gaps to hit doubles and triples. He has enough range and arm strength to play shortstop and has looked very good during occasional trials at second base. I would rate him as a solid Grade B prospect at present.

 

Josh Pennington, RHP: Pennington was drafted in the 29th round in 2014 from high school in Lower Cape May, New Jersey. He made 13 starts in 2016 for Lowell in the New York-Penn League, posting a 2.86 ERA in 57 innings with a 49/27 K/BB, 36 hits allowed, and a 1.04 GO/AO.

 

Pennington is a 6-0, 175 pound right-hander, age 20. His draft position is deceptive, as he was coming off Tommy John surgery and could have gone 25 rounds higher if healthy. He's healthy now and hit a reported 97-98 MPH this summer. His curveball and change-up need more polish, a fact reflected in a strikeout rate that doesn't quite match his velocity, but with more innings both of his off-speed pitches could be at least average. At present he rates as a Grade C+ prospect with a chance for more as he builds his stamina back.

[adambr2]

Shaw and Perez I'm guessing will from a fairly hard platoon at 3rd, with Perez subbing elsewhere against RHP. Villar is definitely freed up for 2nd now, and there's even less room for Scooter on this team now than there was before.

[sveumrules]

Carson Cistulli was intrigued enough by Dubon to do some further digging with regards to his AA performance this year...

 

"Curious about the implications of Dubon’s performance, I identified every 21-year-old Eastern League batter from the five-year interval between 2010 and 2014 who had recorded (a) at least 200 plate appearances and (b) a strikeout rate below 15% and © an isolated-power figure above .150. The list is a short one: from a sample of 964 Eastern League players who meet the plate-appearance criterion, only two others meet the additional constraints. Both of their names are familiar, Mookie Betts & Lonnie Chisenhall."

 

I would assume Stearns & company performed a similar exercise as part of their evaluation.

[JohnBriggs12]

Shaw and Perez I'm guessing will from a fairly hard platoon at 3rd, with Perez subbing elsewhere against RHP. Villar is definitely freed up for 2nd now, and there's even less room for Scooter on this team now than there was before.

 

Your're assuming Gennett will be the one traded and not Villar who's value is much higher? Why not deal Villar now when his value is high? With the likes of Dubon and Diaz in the system, why risk Villar slumping in 2017? I'm guessing they assessed the market for Gennett and it's lacking.

[homer]

Shaw and Perez I'm guessing will from a fairly hard platoon at 3rd, with Perez subbing elsewhere against RHP. Villar is definitely freed up for 2nd now, and there's even less room for Scooter on this team now than there was before.

 

Your assuming Gennett will be the one traded and not Villar who's value is much higher? Why not deal Villar now when his value is high? With the likes of Dubon and Diaz in the system, why risk Villar slumping in 2017?

 

Because Villar is under control for several more years, he can play multiple positions, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that he's on the team when they contend.

[monty57]

Shaw and Perez I'm guessing will from a fairly hard platoon at 3rd, with Perez subbing elsewhere against RHP. Villar is definitely freed up for 2nd now, and there's even less room for Scooter on this team now than there was before.

 

Your assuming Gennett will be the one traded and not Villar who's value is much higher? Why not deal Villar now when his value is high? With the likes of Dubon and Diaz in the system, why risk Villar slumping in 2017?

 

Because Villar is under control for several more years, he can play multiple positions, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that he's on the team when they contend.

 

Yeah, Villar is a better, cheaper player with more upside and team control.

 

There's really no reason for Gennett to remain a Brewer. Trading him opens up a spot for a more versatile player for the bench.

 

Counsell was on MLB Network's "High Heat" over lunch. Russo said something along the lines of "You have a really nice young shortstop who came up late last year in Villar." Counsell played it off well, going into some detail about why he likes Villar but that he would be playing mainly second base next year, tactfully correcting Russo that Arcia was the shortstop of the future. I bring this up here, because Counsell pretty much acknowledged that Villar is now the second baseman. Not really a shocking revelation, but I would be pretty surprised if they decide to trade Villar in favor of Gennett.

[adambr2]

Stearns said himself this morning that they really like versatile players. Gennett is the opposite of versatile.

[brwrsfan]

I know he has less than ideal size, but does anyone know if Gennett has ever even attempted to play anywhere else? Like RF or 3B? Did he ever try any other positions in the minors or anything? From what I recall (which is hazy at best) he was pretty much always at 2b but I wasn't sure if that's just because we needed him there or if he just physically can't play anywhere else?

[Roderick]

I know he has less than ideal size, but does anyone know if Gennett has ever even attempted to play anywhere else? Like RF or 3B? Did he ever try any other positions in the minors or anything? From what I recall (which is hazy at best) he was pretty much always at 2b but I wasn't sure if that's just because we needed him there or if he just physically can't play anywhere else?

 

It may be in the Gennett signing thread, but someone noted his arm strength. And I agree, I don't see him being able to play those other positions.

[reillymcshane]

I know he has less than ideal size, but does anyone know if Gennett has ever even attempted to play anywhere else? Like RF or 3B? Did he ever try any other positions in the minors or anything? From what I recall (which is hazy at best) he was pretty much always at 2b but I wasn't sure if that's just because we needed him there or if he just physically can't play anywhere else?

Scooter doesn't have the arm strength for SS or 3B. Or the range to play CF. Could he play LF? Probably. But that's a pretty weak bat for LF.

[JohnBriggs12]

I know he has less than ideal size, but does anyone know if Gennett has ever even attempted to play anywhere else? Like RF or 3B? Did he ever try any other positions in the minors or anything? From what I recall (which is hazy at best) he was pretty much always at 2b but I wasn't sure if that's just because we needed him there or if he just physically can't play anywhere else?

 

He played 13 games at SS in his first season of pro ball as a 20 year old. I have to laugh when people say a guy can only play one position when he's literally never been asked to play anywhere else. I'm pretty certain Gennett is physically able to play other positions as he's first and foremost a baseball player, but he's been a starter at 2B his entire career so playing elsewhere was never a priority. If he's still on the roster when spring training opens, it would behoove them to move him around a bit. His bat would be nice to have in reserve.

[FVBrewerFan]

Shaw and Perez I'm guessing will from a fairly hard platoon at 3rd, with Perez subbing elsewhere against RHP. Villar is definitely freed up for 2nd now, and there's even less room for Scooter on this team now than there was before.

 

Your're assuming Gennett will be the one traded and not Villar who's value is much higher? Why not deal Villar now when his value is high? With the likes of Dubon and Diaz in the system, why risk Villar slumping in 2017? I'm guessing they assessed the market for Gennett and it's lacking.

 

Because you don't trade a player based on perceived MiLB depth at a position. Dubon and Diaz had great seasons last year, but they have a long way to go to get to MLB, yet alone excel there. But I do agree with selling Villar high if you can. As always, anyone can be traded for the right return. It's just not a decision based on what A ball players are doing.

[Mass Haas]

Some Undue Optimism for Mauricio Dubon

by Carson Cistulli, FanGraphs

 

Intriguing...