Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[MrTPlush]

Is the deal headlined by Shaw, or by Dubon? I'd vote for the latter.

 

He has a higher ceiling, but Shaw has more value. Not to mention that's who Stearns was making this deal for mainly.

[sveumrules]

From MLB Daily...

 

"Given the incredible returns fetched by Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman last season and the fact that Thornburg will be with the Sox for at least three years, this seems like a light return for the Brewers. Shaw provides some value now, especially if he can get his bat back on track. And Dubon and Pennington may be valuable pieces two years down the road. But given the amount teams are willing to pay to acquire elite relievers, it’s a little shocking not to see Milwaukee get a more exciting package for theirs."

 

Of course the return is going to seem light when compared against the returns on Chapman & Miller. They have both been elite relievers for multiple seasons and were acquired at the deadline. Thornburg has been very good for one year and was moved in the offseason.

[JDBrewCrew]

Milwaukee Brewers ‏@Brewers 2m2 minutes ago Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center

#Brewers will also receive a player to be named or cash from Boston. #WinterMeetings

[And That]

Is the deal headlined by Shaw, or by Dubon? I'd vote for the latter.

 

He has a higher ceiling, but Shaw has more value. Not to mention that's who Stearns was making this deal for mainly.

How do you know that?

[Greenleaf1]

Do we think PTBNL is based on Thornburg's performance next year? I forget how long they have now to finish off a trade like this. Could it be based on Thornburg's arbitration deal?

 

Either way, wouldn't expect anyone like Ryan Cordell anyways. I feel like most times they say PTBNL or cash, it ends up being cash.

[And That]

Yah, usually if it's an "or cash" PTBNL, it's a pretty marginal player.

 

Might be a similar deal as Manny Pina last year, where the guy is Rule 5 eligible and can't be traded until after the draft.

[billymac]

Brewers twitter announces they also will be receiving a PTBNL or cash in the deal.

 

Devers?

[MillerParkSouth]

Oh good, another PTBNL to debate about! I am guessing since it's a PTBNL or cash it won't amount to much of anything, but let the speculating begin!

[Greenleaf1]

Based on our community top 25 from earlier in the offseason, I'd put Dubon at #12 or #13 (hard to say with Lopez now that he's doing so well) and Pennington at around #23-ish.

 

My guess is it'll be similar rankings when MLB.com updates their list.

[monty57]

Stearns seems to prefer trades where he can get the young players before they break out more than trading for guys who are already known. I think that during Stearns' tenure, we will have a lot of discussions about why we didn't get a "higher upside" guy, followed a year or so later with discussions of "I can't believe we got that guy so cheap."

 

With the acquisition of Shaw, we now know what the 2017 infield will look like, and it's easier to see Perez's role. It would be great if Shaw could be next year's version of Villar, seemingly coming out of nowhere to put up good numbers, but really I'm just hoping he can prove that he's a decent MLB player able to hold down 3B for a cheap price for a number of years.

 

The real potential prizes are the minor leaguers. Pennington sounds a lot like Thornberg. Good fastball, don't know if he'll end up as a starter or reliever. We've got the best pitching on the farm I can ever remember, but I'm always up for adding more talent to that mix. Meanwhile Dubon sounds like a good defense, good contact, good on base guy who is primed for a breakout season. He looks to be the key component to this deal, who could be on all the "Top prospect" lists next year. Of all the three, he's the one who looks like a guy Stearns would target to build a trade around.

[Noche]

Gotta love pre-hype Red Sox prospects like Dubon and Pennington. Good system to cherry pick out of.

 

Shaw improves the depth and versatility across the IF and I think he has the potential to be a tough out at the plate with some nice pop.

[MrTPlush]

Great thing is it looks like Stearns found three guys who should contribute at the MLB level. That's always a nice get for a single player. Hopefully Dubon becomes something special.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Why are we comparing the trade return we can/should get for Tyler Thornburg to what teams got for Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller?

 

Thornburg was pretty darn good last year, but comparing him to Chapman? Chapman hasn't had a FIP over 2 and a half in 6 years. The guy strikes out close to 2 batters per inning for his career. He's the very definition of unhittable (minus his terrible mis-use by Joe Maddon in the post-season).

 

I think Thorny is great, and I wish him the best and all, but he doesn't even belong in the same conversation as Chapman.

[MillerParkSouth]

Saw someone on twitter say that this return is greater than what the Reds got for Chapman last winter

[sveumrules]

It would be great if Shaw could be next year's version of Villar

 

Villar was the first person I thought of when I saw Shaw's inclusion in the deal.

 

Villar pre-MIL: 658 PAs 236/300/353 83 wRC+

Shaw pre-MIL: 778 PAs 251/312/442 97 w RC+

 

Granted Shaw is a little older and further down the positional spectrum so he probably doesn't have the same upside as Villar but I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up something around a 270/330/450 triple slash next year.

[pacopete4]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 1m1 minute ago

SS Maurico Dubon was rated the No. 7 prospect in Boston’s system by @BaseballAmerica. Athleticism is a very big factor with him.

 

I think he's the center piece. That is a deep system.

 

Deep because teams like the Red Sox get a lot more press on their prospects than most clubs. Not knocking the guy, but it has been proven over and over. Heck, we had two of them on our roster last season (Cechinni, Middlebrooks).

[MadScientist]

Milwaukee Brewers ‏@Brewers 2m2 minutes ago Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center

#Brewers will also receive a player to be named or cash from Boston. #WinterMeetings

 

So who on Boston is rule 5 eligible that the Brewers might be targeting?

[MrTPlush]

Saw someone on twitter say that this return is greater than what the Reds got for Chapman last winter

 

Thornburg also didn't shoot up his garage after a fight with his girlfriend.

[djoctagone]

Yah, usually if it's an "or cash" PTBNL, it's a pretty marginal player.

 

Might be a similar deal as Manny Pina last year, where the guy is Rule 5 eligible and can't be traded until after the draft.

last year, pina was acquired the same day as the rule 5 draft--but after the rule 5 draft had concluded. thus, we could know as early as thursday late morning.

[pogokat]

Thornburg's results have been all over the map and he's had some injury issues. I think this is selling high---the kind of thing that a lo of us have complained about the Brewers not doing over the past 5 years.

[JDBrewCrew]

Christopher Crawford ‏@Crawford_MILB 14s14 seconds ago

Really like that deal for Milwaukee. Mo Dubon has a chance to have four above-average tools. One of the more underrated prospects.

[pogokat]

two thoughts:

 

1. Dubon seems like the kind of guy who is gonna get a lot of attention as a prospect in the upcoming season---similar to Diaz last year, but 2 years more advanced

 

2. The Red Sox are about to sign Mitch Moreland, who is basically the same hitter as Shaw, but 5 years older. odd.

[JDBrewCrew]

Brent Hershey ‏@BrentHQ 1m1 minute ago

Mauricio Dubon is the catch of the deal for #Brewers. Athletic MIF, has hit his way into prospect lists—contact/doubles power, some speed.

 

Brent Hershey ‏@BrentHQ 1m1 minute ago

Dubon probably a year out, but gives #Brewers another high-skill option up the middle. Even played some CF in AFL. Was #6 on our BOS list.

[pacopete4]

Is Dubon starting at SS in AAA to start the year or placed back in AA? He will be 23 in July of the 2017 season.

[FVBrewerFan]

Isan Diaz Age 20 .827 A

 

Dubon Age 21 .840 A+/AA

 

We love Diaz, and with good reason. Yet looking over the numbers just now, briefly, we should be AT LEAST as excited about Dubon. Plus, his K rate is much better than Diaz, and my initial research probably a better defensive player.

 

I'll need to look into all these players more, and continue to read everyone's comments here. But like a lot of people my initial reaction was meh. But I'm warming up to the idea that Dubon may be a really nice headliner in this deal.

 

Finally, since I'm sure this will come up, why another SS/2B!?!? Well, Diaz just completed A ball. Not even close to a guarantee he will be a really good MLB player, or even make it there. And, hate to say it, no guarantee Arcia's bat will be good enough to stick as a starting SS. Continue to add talent at all levels of the organization, regardless of position.