Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[Eye Black]

There is nothing to dislike about what Dubon did last year at AA. 32 extra base hits in 62 games played and posted a .371 OBP.

Dubon finished 7th in the AA Eastern League with a .909 OPS (270 plate appearances). The league was packed with top prospects, he finished behind guys like Austin Meadows (.976), Dylan Cozens (.941), Yoan Moncada (.910), and ahead of some good hitters including Amed Rosario, Andrew Benintendi, David Dahl, Bradley Zimmer, Chance Sisco, Clint Frazier, Dominic Smith, etc.

[And That]

Thornburg did not have a track record of success, so as mentioned above Brewers could have rolled the dice and hoped for more of the same and a better return at the trade deadline, or hedged their bets and traded him now. Don't think it was unwise to do what they did.

[ebmackenzie]

I like what JosephC said here, "I think this is a pretty good deal for both sides. Thornburg doesn't have an extensive track record but has been a plus-reliever outside of some control issues in 2014. At 28 years old he is probably one year into the five best years of his career. The Brewers net three players for a relief pitcher. One will likely step into a starting role at third base, one appears to have a good chance of being a future middle infield starter and the third is a big-arm lottery ticket. Rebuilding teams will take three-for-a-reliever deals all day long."

 

TT was a luxury (if you disagree I would like to point out that he was easily moved--like JJ and Will Smith) and this team is NOT competing with Thames at first...we are still trying to figure out who are players and who has value. I see Braun being moved if since this was done very early. Flood the system and force talent up through the ranks.

[Mass Haas]

All via SoxProspects.com:

 

Discussion thread

 

Mauricio Dubon - Their #9 prospect

 

Josh Pennington - Their #27 prospect

[reillymcshane]

I think the 'underwhelming' feeling that people may be having is that there is no potential elite player coming back for Tyler.

 

My biggest issue is who is the real Travis Shaw. As Briggs pointed out, he was never that good in the minors, and he was pretty awful in the second half of 2016. He doesn't walk that much, strikes out quite a bit. If he can hit .260-.270 with 15-20 HR with solid defense, that's pretty good. But if he's ends up hitting .240 with a .300 OBP, it's pretty weak.

 

Haven't really seen Shaw play, so I don't know that much about him. Strictly going to stats and some scouting reports, which are nothing special.

[ebmackenzie]

Why wouldn't Dubon be at AAA at 22? Arcia is in the bigs at 21. NShaw and YRivera won't hold back a kid with those OPS numbers in the Eastern League.

 

BTW, Arcia has 7 games at 2B under his MLB belt. Young and slick up the middle...

[billymac]

All via SoxProspects.com:

 

Discussion thread

 

Mauricio Dubon - Their #9 prospect

 

Josh Pennington - Their #27 prospect

 

Pretty funny seeing some of the forum replies how they want Dombrowski's head on a plate, doesn't seem like they gave up the farm by any means, none of their top prospects came over for one of the best relievers in the game for 3 years control, not sure why they are so upset.

[IndyCrew]

I'm not hating on the deal because it gives us more flexibility to make other moves. If no other moves are made, I may change my stance. The one thing I'd like to see is more of a shift to get quality over quantity in prospects. Our 40 man roster and rule five draft decisions are going to start getting harder thanks to our minor league depth, so I'd rather grab a stud 19/20 year old than guys who will have to be added to the 40 man roster in the next two years (not saying these two will--just a general position).

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the 'underwhelming' feeling that people may be having is that there is no potential elite player coming back for Tyler.

 

My biggest issue is who is the real Travis Shaw. As Briggs pointed out, he was never that good in the minors, and he was pretty awful in the second half of 2016. He doesn't walk that much, strikes out quite a bit. If he can hit .260-.270 with 15-20 HR with solid defense, that's pretty good. But if he's ends up hitting .240 with a .300 OBP, it's pretty weak.

 

Haven't really seen Shaw play, so I don't know that much about him. Strictly going to stats and some scouting reports, which are nothing special.

 

The question is whether Shaw/Perez is an upgrade over Perez/Gennett. I'm certainly not convinced, Yeah, he's got longer control than Scooter and more power and this allows Villar to move to 2B, but that control will mean nothing if Erceg progresses or he doesn't prove he's at worst a reliable LH platoon bat at 3B.

 

It certainly doesn't help Gennett's value as teams know he doesn't have a regular job with Brewers.

 

We do know that the Brewer bullpen has taken a tremendous hit, and it doesn't look like they are getting back anything close to offsetting that at least in the short term.

[brewerfan82]

You don't want Shaw facing lefties, so I suspect the plan will be a platoon at 3B with Perez.

Some pretty sporatic sample sizes, but here are some splits since 2012:

 

[pre]MLB PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 578 19 .251 .322 .429 .751

vs LHP 200 10 .249 .285 .476 .761

 

2015 AAA

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 194 2 .258 .342 .361 .703

vs LHP 95 3 .232 .263 .347 .610

 

2014 AAA

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 223 9 .291 .348 .502 .850

vs LHP 90 1 .189 .253 .256 .508

 

2014 AA

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 96 7 .333 .458 .635 1.093

vs LHP 81 4 .272 .337 .444 .782

 

2013 AA

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 309 10 .217 .334 .385 .719

vs LHP 135 6 .230 .360 .415 .775

 

2012 AA

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 71 3 .239 .368 .479 .847

vs LHP 39 0 .205 .326 .333 .658

 

2012 A+

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS

vs RHP 256 9 .291 .403 .504 .907

vs LHP 100 7 .340 .432 .650 1.082[/pre]

 

Seems like when he's given enough at bats, he's held his own against LHP, so I'm not sure I'd force a strict platoon on him right away.

[ebmackenzie]

Shaw is supposed to be defensively savvy...and Villar had 0 errors in 11 games at 2B (12 E in 42 games at 3B)...

 

Twitter noted that Shaw is moving from a hard park for LHH to an easy park for LHH...that is for us as well.

[reillymcshane]

All via SoxProspects.com:

 

Discussion thread

 

Mauricio Dubon - Their #9 prospect

 

Josh Pennington - Their #27 prospect

 

Pretty funny seeing some of the forum replies how they want Dombrowski's head on a plate, doesn't seem like they gave up the farm by any means, none of their top prospects came over for one of the best relievers in the game for 3 years control, not sure why they are so upset.

One guy at Sons of Sam Horn called the trade 'insanity' and said Thornburg would be competing for the 10th or 11th position on their staff. Just hilarious.

[reillymcshane]

 

Twitter noted that Shaw is moving from a hard park for LHH to an easy park for LHH...that is for us as well.

Shaw hit .847 OPS at Fenway, and a .661 OPS on the road for his career.

[yoshii8]

After doing my research on the guys acquired for Thornburg, I don't mind the trade. I hope Travis Shaw can get past his 2nd half slump last season, and be a good 3b for the Brewers. It's nice he has had some MLB success, and we control him for a while.

 

 

I'm very excited about Mauricio Dubon, he looks like an absolute stud, who is coming into his own as a player.

[reillymcshane]

Shaw is supposed to be defensively savvy...and Villar had 0 errors in 11 games at 2B (12 E in 42 games at 3B)...

Yeh, Shaw has generally graded out pretty solid as a 3B - maybe even a little above average.

[MrTPlush]

I need the rose colored glasses people calling this a huge haul have. If anything this is an OK deal with Stearns selling low on Thornburg not taking the risk of having a big regression next year. Honestly the deal leaves a lot to be desired. The deal is headlined by a platoon bat who had a brutal second half. On the bright side BR.com really liked his 3B defense, he plays the better half of a platoon, and his first half hitting wise was a lot more pleasant. If he can hit like his first half numbers with good defense I guess one can come out of this feeling happy.

 

I wouldn't get all excited about this return. They had a potentially elite trade chip and bailed out for a lower ceiling player. Not saying it was wrong to trade him. Trading him now is obviously the safer bet, but they left a lot on the table if his numbers are close to last years next year.

 

This then leads me into the question why on earth the Brewers even gave Gennett a contract. Must be really confident some team will trade for him.

[And That]

Is the deal headlined by Shaw, or by Dubon? I'd vote for the latter.

[brewerfan82]

Presumably Scooter gets moved now, so Shaw is replacing him in the lineup:

 

[pre]162 Game Avg PA R HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

Gennett 582 65 12 57 6 29 103 .279 .318 .420 .738

Shaw 600 73 22 83 4 47 147 .251 .312 .442 .754[/pre]

 

Both are going into their age 27 season, but Shaw has a fewer years of service time, has a bigger bat, is an upgrade on defense, fills a position of need, has less dramatic splits, allows Villar to move to 2nd full time, and lets Perez fill a super-sub role. Dubon looks like a very interesting prospect. Relief pitching is volatile. I like the trade. Let's see what we can get for Scooter, which in a way, will basically round out this swap.

[TURBO]

How does Dubon compare to Diaz?

 

Arcia is our future at SS, Diaz was our future at 2B, where does this leave Dubon? Can he play 3B?

[And That]

Dubon is a plus defender at short, and played some CF in the AFL. These things work themselves out.

[Greenleaf1]

If you're the kind of person that wants the Brewers to "win" all their trades, then this trade might not be for you. Shaw/Dubon were both expendable for the Sox, and Pennington is essentially a lottery ticket that they got essentially for free ($90K signing bonus and 29th round pick, I think), so the Red Sox are dealing from depth to get one of the best setup guys in all of baseball behind Kimbrel.

 

I like this trade for us though, and I think this combination of guys was too hard for Stearns to turn down and risk sending Thornburg out there for a 2nd season on a losing team and expecting him to continue to be THAT dominant in order to net a bigger haul at the trade deadline.

 

Dubon excites me the most and I'd consider him the centerpiece of this trade. The fact that he can play 2B/SS/CF makes him all the more attractive, even if all 3 of those positions are currently occupied by long-term controllable players. Our upper-minors infield depth is somewhat lacking, so he's great depth to have and could either help us as a utility guy and see where it goes from there or allow us to trade him or Villar when we need another big piece. Huge breakout year too, and his SLG at AA and in the AFL are much higher than his career-numbers, which we can only hope means he's discovered an as yet unseen power tool.

 

Pennington is a lottery ticket but a pretty damn good one. Seems like Taylor Williams would be a good comp, except younger and doesn't need to eat a spot on our 40-man. Control seems to be a huge issue, but if he converts to reliever maybe that 94-98 mph fastball becomes more like 99-100? Don't need as much control when you're throwing that hard.

 

I like Shaw for his controllability and his lefty power should play well at Miller Park (just ask Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Scooter Gennett how nice it is to have that short porch in right field), but not expecting the world out of him. Solid defense is a huge plus though, and seems like it wouldn't be asking too much to expect a 20 homer season from him. Platoon him at 3B with Perez (which means we better hope Thames can hold his own against lefties).

 

I like this trade a lot. I don't love it, but I'm happy with the return.

[MillerParkSouth]

Are the naysayers of this trade forgetting how volatile relievers can be? For as good as Thornburg was last year, there's a decent chance he falls back to earth next year. The more I read about this, the more I like the trade. Dubon seems like a great get and Pennington is basically Thornburg-lite.

[JDBrewCrew]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 1m1 minute ago

SS Maurico Dubon was rated the No. 7 prospect in Boston’s system by @BaseballAmerica. Athleticism is a very big factor with him.

 

I think he's the center piece. That is a deep system.

[Thurston Fluff]

How does Dubon compare to Diaz?

 

Arcia is our future at SS, Diaz was our future at 2B, where does this leave Dubon? Can he play 3B?

 

Prospects flop all the time. You can never have to many of them. If we are fortunate enough to have everyone playing up to their potential we have some great trade chips for our next Greinke Sabathia type deal.

[And That]

Brewers twitter announces they also will be receiving a PTBNL or cash in the deal.