Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[pacopete4]

I'm not getting too excited about the PTBNL, because if it was at all dependent on Thornburg, it won't be much, since he's hurt.

 

Even before Thornburg got hurt it was PTBNL or $100. That alone should tell you about the quality of the player coming back.

 

 

It has zero to do with the quality of the player as even the GM of the Sox mentioned that they must place a money value and just came up with $100 as the quantity.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm not getting too excited about the PTBNL, because if it was at all dependent on Thornburg, it won't be much, since he's hurt.

 

Even before Thornburg got hurt it was PTBNL or $100. That alone should tell you about the quality of the player coming back.

 

The reason the amount was set at $100 was because they were so sure the Brewes would choose a player, because the players list is quality.

 

The Thornburg deal will likely go down as highway robbery.

[Roderick]

I'm not getting too excited about the PTBNL, because if it was at all dependent on Thornburg, it won't be much, since he's hurt.

 

Even before Thornburg got hurt it was PTBNL or $100. That alone should tell you about the quality of the player coming back.

 

The reason the amount was set at $100 was because they were so sure the Brewers would choose a player, because the players list is quality.

 

The Thornburg deal will likely go down as highway robbery.

 

I wouldn't assume the players list is quality just because the GMs are both confident they will be able to pick a player. The assumption is that list is plenty big enough to account for injuries and poor development from the players on that list. But the list easily could have been 10 rookie league scrubs.

[adambr2]

I'm not sure that's true about the PTBNL. I know they didn't think selecting a PTBNL would be a problem, but I don't know that that necessarily indicates it's a quality prospect. If it ends up being a top 25 organizational prospect for us I'll be happy.

[And That]

There might be 10 guys on the list - my guess is quantity, not quality. I'd be happy to be wrong, though.

[brewerfan82]

A quantity list definitely makes sense, especially if it involves lower lever prospects. The larger the list, the more likely Stearns can grab a player who's showing some encouraging progress and development to start off this year and may turn into another quality prospect. Our top 16 prospects are all in high A or higher, so it'd be nice to get another guy with some potential in the lower minors.

 

Regardless, this trade has already added pieces to the A, AA, and MLB levels of the organization and whatever the PTBNL piece ends up being is just icing on the cake. DS did a really nice job of adding talent throughout the system on this one. Hopefully some of our current pitchers can draw similar interest as the year goes on because I think Stearns should keep striking while this reliever market is hot!

[Greenleaf1]

Any word on Josh Pennington? Doesn't look like he's pitched yet this year, did he stay behind in Arizona for some reason?

 

Honestly the PTBNL in this deal is gravy. If we looked at the trade given the results of this season so far, just getting Shaw for Thornburg would look like highway robbery, so I'm not terribly concerned with how good or bad the last guy on this deal is going to be. My guess is that it will be someone of Pennington quality or lower though, especially since I feel like there's a good chance Thornburg's health plays into the player we're getting back. Wouldn't expect much, certainly not a top 25 prospect.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think a quantity list is something a team giving away the player would want ESPECIALLY if we are talking about lower level guys. You don't know a lot about those players and half a year can make a world of a difference. I don't think a team would dare put anywhere near 10 players on a list.

[brewerfan82]

Definitely agree that 10 players would be excessive. But even a player list half that size would be a nice opportunity to grab someone showing promise and it also would explain 1.) why Stearns is waiting as long as possible to choose a player and 2.) why both GMs were so sure a player would be chosen over the cash. It will be interesting to see how this turns out and if we get to hear any of the parameters of the deal.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I mean...... given the way Shaw has been playing and Thornburg hasn't even made it onto a mound yet (and won't for a while), I'd (almost) feel guilty about taking another player off of Boston's hands. (I said *almost*)

 

Even with Dubon scuffling a little bit in the early going here, this trade looks so so awesome right now.

[Never Outhustled]

I highly doubt the deal had any contingencies for Thornburg's health. He wasn't injured at the time of the deal. No way we let our spoils be determined by their ability to keep their pitcher healthy. Tyler attributes his injury to their goofy spring training throwing program.

[MadScientist]

Definitely agree that 10 players would be excessive. But even a player list half that size would be a nice opportunity to grab someone showing promise and it also would explain 1.) why Stearns is waiting as long as possible to choose a player and 2.) why both GMs were so sure a player would be chosen over the cash. It will be interesting to see how this turns out and if we get to hear any of the parameters of the deal.

 

Perhaps Sterns needed to wait to see where and how the PTBN would slot into the organization. Given the timing, I have to think that the Victor Roache trade was in part to open up a minor league roster spot for whoever the Brewers pick, with it being a position player at AA or below.

[liveforoctober]

Definitely agree that 10 players would be excessive. But even a player list half that size would be a nice opportunity to grab someone showing promise and it also would explain 1.) why Stearns is waiting as long as possible to choose a player and 2.) why both GMs were so sure a player would be chosen over the cash. It will be interesting to see how this turns out and if we get to hear any of the parameters of the deal.

 

Perhaps Sterns needed to wait to see where and how the PTBN would slot into the organization. Given the timing, I have to think that the Victor Roache trade was in part to open up a minor league roster spot for whoever the Brewers pick, with it being a position player at AA or below.

 

That's a great point. My first thought when Roache was traded was that Monte Harrison was going to get bumped and push the line up one but this could be a better reason..

[And That]

I highly doubt the deal had any contingencies for Thornburg's health.

Yah, I think it is pretty unusual for an MLB trade to have a performance component to it. I doubt any of the players on the agreed-upon list will be yanked because Tyler got hurt.

[FVBrewerFan]

I highly doubt the deal had any contingencies for Thornburg's health.

Yah, I think it is pretty unusual for an MLB trade to have a performance component to it. I doubt any of the players on the agreed-upon list will be yanked because Tyler got hurt.

 

Officially, no. But I could see Stearns just taking the $100 in a show of goodwill. Sox would be more willing to deal in the future, and remember this if a deal is close, Stearns gets what he wants. Other GMs would take notice too. I don't think for a minute he would be seen as a sucker, just looking long term instead of short term gain of another low level meh prospect.

[MrTPlush]

Alright let's calm down about this trade a little bit. Thornburg is controllable through 2019 and will be out just 2.5 months at the start of the deal. Shaw isn't anything special and Dubon is a good prospect, but FAR off to be assured anything.

 

Making this trade seem like a highway robbery and that maybe we should take the $100 to be nice after a month is crazy ridiculous in my opinion.

[pacopete4]

Alright let's calm down about this trade a little bit. Thornburg is controllable through 2019 and will be out just 2.5 months at the start of the deal. Shaw isn't anything special and Dubon is a good prospect, but FAR off to be assured anything.

 

Making this trade seem like a highway robbery and that maybe we should take the $100 to be nice after a month is crazy ridiculous in my opinion.

 

Seconded.

[MadScientist]

Definitely agree that 10 players would be excessive. But even a player list half that size would be a nice opportunity to grab someone showing promise and it also would explain 1.) why Stearns is waiting as long as possible to choose a player and 2.) why both GMs were so sure a player would be chosen over the cash. It will be interesting to see how this turns out and if we get to hear any of the parameters of the deal.

 

Perhaps Sterns needed to wait to see where and how the PTBN would slot into the organization. Given the timing, I have to think that the Victor Roache trade was in part to open up a minor league roster spot for whoever the Brewers pick, with it being a position player at AA or below.

 

That's a great point. My first thought when Roache was traded was that Monte Harrison was going to get bumped and push the line up one but this could be a better reason..

 

Still could be bumped up. The player in question could slot into Harrison's roster spot.

[And That]

But I could see Stearns just taking the $100 in a show of goodwill.

I don't. It might be a nice gesture, but the Thornburg injury was out of the Brewers control, and I am pretty sure the Red Sox acknowledge that. Injuries happen. If it were an injury the Brewers tried to conceal, that would be a different issue. In this case, a deal is a deal, and if the Brewers play the good Samaritan here, other teams might expect that of the Brewers going forward. That's not a great bargaining position to be in.

 

If the Brewers take the money, which I just don't see happening but it's possible, it will be a baseball decision because they soured on all of the players on the list. However many players that is. 3,5,10,87, whatever.

[adambr2]

Alright let's calm down about this trade a little bit. Thornburg is controllable through 2019 and will be out just 2.5 months at the start of the deal. Shaw isn't anything special and Dubon is a good prospect, but FAR off to be assured anything.

 

Making this trade seem like a highway robbery and that maybe we should take the $100 to be nice after a month is crazy ridiculous in my opinion.

 

Seconded.

 

I must be higher on Shaw than most. I think he's going to be a pretty good player. Not a perennial All-star or anything but reliable and a bit above average for his position.

[Never Outhustled]

I highly doubt the deal had any contingencies for Thornburg's health.

Yah, I think it is pretty unusual for an MLB trade to have a performance component to it. I doubt any of the players on the agreed-upon list will be yanked because Tyler got hurt.

 

Officially, no. But I could see Stearns just taking the $100 in a show of goodwill. Sox would be more willing to deal in the future, and remember this if a deal is close, Stearns gets what he wants. Other GMs would take notice too. I don't think for a minute he would be seen as a sucker, just looking long term instead of short term gain of another low level meh prospect.

 

Josh Pennington hasn't pitched yet, so under your line of thinking they should owe us more right?

 

Doug Melvin isn't in charge anymore, we're not trying to make deals that are good for both teams anymore. We'll try to win every deal. If we're successful in that, there'll always be plenty of GMS to trade with, because GMs routinely get replaced.

[pacopete4]

Alright let's calm down about this trade a little bit. Thornburg is controllable through 2019 and will be out just 2.5 months at the start of the deal. Shaw isn't anything special and Dubon is a good prospect, but FAR off to be assured anything.

 

Making this trade seem like a highway robbery and that maybe we should take the $100 to be nice after a month is crazy ridiculous in my opinion.

 

Seconded.

 

I must be higher on Shaw than most. I think he's going to be a pretty good player. Not a perennial All-star or anything but reliable and a bit above average for his position.

 

I shouldn't have seconded that part. I like Shaw. He's been a great fit in Milwaukee. If he figures out how to be consistent, watch out.

[brewerfan82]

If we traded something other than a relief pitcher, yeah, I'd say it's a bit early. Or possibly if he was a stud reliever like Chapman (FIP under 1.94 each of the past 4 seasons) or Miller (FIP under 2.16 each of the past 4 seasons), but he's Tyler Thornburg who's good, but inconsistent (FIPs of 7.10, 3.11, 3.81, 5.11, and 2.83 in his career) and has never been as dominating as the top relievers.

 

Best case scenario at this point he's going to affect about 700 at bats over the rest of his contract. Shaw's probably going have about 600 at bats this year alone and we'll have him under control for 4 more years still. With the injury, we traded about 2.5 years of a good, but not elite, inconsistent relief pitcher for 5 years of a guy who's immediately our everyday 3rd baseman at the MLB level and potentially 18 more years of 3 additional prospects in the minors. Obviously the chances we get 23 productive MLB seasons out of those guys is next to nill, but that's a ton of ammo to take a chance on. Add in that Thornburg is hurt already and you don't know how he'll return from that and it's really difficult to see this turning into a deal we regret.

 

It may be early to call it highway robbery, but it may only take to the end of the first season to do so and I'd argue it's already pretty close to being clearly a good deal on our end regardless of what happens going forward. I may undervalue relievers to some extent, but the market for relief pitchers is just insane. I'd make that trade everyday of the week.

[CheezWizHed]

I highly doubt the deal had any contingencies for Thornburg's health.

Yah, I think it is pretty unusual for an MLB trade to have a performance component to it. I doubt any of the players on the agreed-upon list will be yanked because Tyler got hurt.

 

Wasn't the CC trade with Green vs. Brantley as the PTBNL based on performance of CC?

[adambr2]

I highly doubt the deal had any contingencies for Thornburg's health.

Yah, I think it is pretty unusual for an MLB trade to have a performance component to it. I doubt any of the players on the agreed-upon list will be yanked because Tyler got hurt.

 

Wasn't the CC trade with Green vs. Brantley as the PTBNL based on performance of CC?

 

Not directly. It was based on the Brewers' performance. Had they missed the playoffs the Brewers would have chosen the player from the PTBNL list. They made the playoffs, so it was the Indians' choice.