Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[MrTPlush]

Shaw has produced 3.4bWAR & 3.0 fWAR in parts of two major league seasons. Thornburg has produced 4.2 bWAR & 2.6 fWAR in parts of five seasons. If Shaw hasn't had any real success at the MLB level than Thornburg hasn't had that much if any more.

 

It wouldn't be useful to mention that WAR value at the position they play would it? Or does that not fit the argument you want to make? I really hate usuing WAR for relievers, but here we go anyway:

 

Tyler Thornburg ranked #12 out of #135 relievers with his 2 WAR season. Better than 91% of relievers last year.

 

Travis Shaw was ranked #20 out of #24 3B last year in WAR. Better than just 20% of 3B last year. Only 4 were less valuable full time.

[MKE81]

2013: Terrible in AAA, excellent in 66 MLB IP.

2014: Excellent for a month and a half in MLB, shut down with elbow.

2015: Terrible in AAA, solid in 34 MLB IP.

 

There have been flashes for sure, but Tyler has been in the Majors for parts of five seasons now and 2016 was the first time he pitched in all six calendar months. He is the perfect example of the volatility of relief pitchers with glimpses of his potential here & there sandwiched around injury & underperformance.

There are also two other factors

 

1. Thornburg was being shuffled between starting and relief pitching. Last year he was allowed to stick with just being a reliever and he mentioned this helping him a lot.

 

2. The eye test. With him being just a relief pitcher, his velocity was regularly in the mid-90's. He has a quality change and curve. Thornburg has three plus pitches that when commanded are filthy. We've seen this out of many failed starters who have quality stuff that when allowed to just pitch out of the bullpen, they go from fringe starter to elite reliever. The Cubs just traded for one in Wade Davis. A guy with stuff, but who struggled to stick as a starter for whatever reason. When moved to the bullpen though, he thrived. Many of the best relievers have followed this path.

Thornburg was strictly in the pen in 2014 posting not good numbers then started there again at the beginning of 2015 posting 9.2ip, 16h, 6er, 5.58 ERA so he was sent to AAA to go back to the rotation for 15 starts. When he came back up he posted a 2.92 ERA strictly out of the pen. Then last year he continued that similar success until the beginning of June and took off until the last 4 outings. Thornburg was performing poorly when he was strictly in the pen for over a year (was also injured during that span too). His last time in the rotation for the Brewers he dominated in 2013 so he wasn't struggling as a starter. They put him in the pen the following season full time. Additionally, a similar deal to what we took was being offered for Wade Davis - an actual elite reliever.

 

Someone else just made this same point, if Thornburg continued this pace the first half next year you're not drastically sweetening the return for an additional 3.5 months of performance. The return might look different - maybe just prospects instead of the combo of MLB ready and prospects but the overall talent will be relatively similar. The team he's going to is also losing him for the first half of a season as well control wise. Stearns sided with history and the chances of Thornburg regressing and I don't blame him

[sveumrules]

The only point I was trying to make was that in his 2 seasons Shaw has provided value roughly equivalent with that provided by Thornburg over his 5 seasons.

 

Tyler had a much better 2016, no doubt. Even then though his career high of 2.0 WAR was barely above the 1.5 accrued by Shaw in a down season.

 

Both players played in 2015 too. Among 210 relievers with at least 30 IP Thornburg's -0.3 fWAR ranked 192nd. Shaw's 1.5 fWAR ranked 26th among 53 third basemen with at least 200 PAs or 21st of 50 first basemen with at least 200 PAs, since that is where he played most of his 2015 innings.

 

Did you leave out that information because it didn't fit the argument you wanted to make?

[danzig6767]

No doubt getting shuffled around in different roles altered Tyler's developmental path. I'd be really curious if it was his decision or the organization's (or arrived upon collaboratively) to go back to starting in 2015 after he came back from the elbow issue that ended his 2014. If he had gone right back into the bullpen after his impressive showing to start 2014 it might have accelerated his ascension instead of spending 4 months struggling as a starter in Colo Springs.

It's not only that. As a starter his velocity was more in the 92 range while as a reliever only having to pitch one inning, he can let loose. There is a sizable difference when a guy throws 96 instead to go with his quality off speed stuff.

 

Hitters now lose that extra split second in trying to determine whether say a high 96mph fastball is coming or a curve. Like i mentioned, a guy like Wade Davis is another example. He could let loose only having to pitch one inning and had the arm to throw 95-97, to to along with his secondary pitches.

 

Clearly, command was another issue for Thornburg last year, as is for any pitcher. Stuff only becomes dominant when mixed with command and Tyler had both. He needs to repeat that going forward, but some pitchers for a variety of reasons just are better suited for the bullpen than as a starter. And thrive as a result.

 

Given the steep rise in importance of bullpens over the last 6-7-8 years, teams need to be less shy about converting struggling starters with stuff into relievers. No question that high end starters are still the most coveted and needed, but for guys with stuff who can't seem to get past being mediocre as a starter, switching them to relief pitcher makes more sense in today's baseball.

[MrTPlush]

The only point I was trying to make was that in his 2 seasons Shaw has provided value roughly equivalent with that provided by Thornburg over his 5 seasons.

 

Tyler had a much better 2016, no doubt. Even then though his career high of 2.0 WAR was barely above the 1.5 accrued by Shaw in a down season.

 

Both players played in 2015 too. Among 210 relievers with at least 30 IP Thornburg's -0.3 fWAR ranked 192nd. Shaw's 1.5 fWAR ranked 26th among 53 third basemen with at least 200 PAs or 21st of 50 first basemen with at least 200 PAs, since that is where he played most of his 2015 innings.

 

Did you leave out that information because it didn't fit the argument you wanted to make?

 

In my my opinion venturing past 350 PAs for your minimum is going to lead to inaccurate stats. At that point you are adding a bunch of players with fairly small sample sizes and bench players/utility players that really shouldn't be apart of grading out a starter(like Shaw). Really it is just flat out wrong. The more you play the more WAR you are going to be able to rack up. Obviously Bregmann who got called up late is going to have less WAR and guys who don't play every day won't be able to have a high WAR.

[MKE81]

Shaw has produced 3.4bWAR & 3.0 fWAR in parts of two major league seasons. Thornburg has produced 4.2 bWAR & 2.6 fWAR in parts of five seasons. If Shaw hasn't had any real success at the MLB level than Thornburg hasn't had that much if any more.

 

It wouldn't be useful to mention that WAR value at the position they play would it? Or does that not fit the argument you want to make? I really hate usuing WAR for relievers, but here we go anyway:

 

Tyler Thornburg ranked #12 out of #135 relievers with his 2 WAR season. Better than 91% of relievers last year.

 

Travis Shaw was ranked #20 out of #24 3B last year in WAR. Better than just 20% of 3B last year. Only 4 were less valuable full time.

It's not useful using WAR in general. ESPN has Thornburg at the same WAR as Chapman and Jansen and they both had superior seasons to Thornburg (who also had 8 blown saves in 21 attempts). Where did Thornburg rank the past 2yrs as a reliever or do track records not matter? ESPN has Shaw ranked 17th in WAR last year. Additionally, don't Thornburg and Shaw have the same, or very similar WAR? If they do then don't they just cancel each other out on the MLB roster? Clearly, it's not that simple, just making a general point.

 

It's like people forget that there were other pieces to the trade and just go bash Shaw. An average starting MLB 3b with good defense and power (while being a lefty) has value. Then getting a great prospect on top along with a potential good pen arm. Yes please, I'll take that all day for a reliever who had 1 great year.

[MrTPlush]

Shaw has produced 3.4bWAR & 3.0 fWAR in parts of two major league seasons. Thornburg has produced 4.2 bWAR & 2.6 fWAR in parts of five seasons. If Shaw hasn't had any real success at the MLB level than Thornburg hasn't had that much if any more.

 

It wouldn't be useful to mention that WAR value at the position they play would it? Or does that not fit the argument you want to make? I really hate usuing WAR for relievers, but here we go anyway:

 

Tyler Thornburg ranked #12 out of #135 relievers with his 2 WAR season. Better than 91% of relievers last year.

 

Travis Shaw was ranked #20 out of #24 3B last year in WAR. Better than just 20% of 3B last year. Only 4 were less valuable full time.

It's not useful using WAR in general.

 

If they do then don't they just cancel each other out on the MLB roster?

 

It's like people forget that there were other pieces to the trade and just go bash Shaw.

 

That debatable. I wasn't the one who started the WAR argument of comparing Thornburg/Shaw directly though. I actually even mentioned I hate WAR for relievers, but once again I wasn't the person who mentioned Thornburg's WAR orginially.

 

No, Thornburg's WAR would be superior to Shaw's if they were the same due to position.

 

I don't think anyone is bashing Shaw at all.

[sveumrules]

In my my opinion venturing past 350 PAs for your minimum is going to lead to inaccurate stats. At that point you are adding a bunch of players with fairly small sample sizes and bench players/utility players that really shouldn't be apart of grading out a starter(like Shaw). Really it is just flat out wrong. The more you play the more WAR you are going to be able to rack up. Obviously Bregmann who got called up late is going to have less WAR and guys who don't play every day won't be able to have a high WAR.

 

I used 30 IP & 200 PAs as the cutoffs because Thornburg had 34 IP in 2015 & Shaw had 248 PAs. As neither player qualified I had to set the minimum at those numbers to get them to appear on the leaderboards. It also makes the fact that Shaw was a middle of the pack 1B or 3B in only half a season all the more impressive. Of the 25 3B & 19 1B with a higher fWAR than Shaw in 2015 none had fewer plate appearances. If he can regain his 2015 form he should have no problem being an average regular with a full season.

 

I don't think anyone is bashing Shaw at all.

 

The only reason I compared their career WARs was in response to paul253's assertion that "none of them, including Shaw I'd argue, have had any real success at the major league level."

[danzig6767]

The only point I was trying to make was that in his 2 seasons Shaw has provided value roughly equivalent with that provided by Thornburg over his 5 seasons.

 

Tyler had a much better 2016, no doubt. Even then though his career high of 2.0 WAR was barely above the 1.5 accrued by Shaw in a down season.

 

Both players played in 2015 too. Among 210 relievers with at least 30 IP Thornburg's -0.3 fWAR ranked 192nd. Shaw's 1.5 fWAR ranked 26th among 53 third basemen with at least 200 PAs or 21st of 50 first basemen with at least 200 PAs, since that is where he played most of his 2015 innings.

 

Did you leave out that information because it didn't fit the argument you wanted to make?

Contenders aren't looking at stats like WAR though when trading for relief pitchers who may only throw 50-65 innings.

 

They instead are planning on making the playoffs and once there, they have been watching teams often advance as much on the backs of a dominant bullpen as an elite rotation. It's a different game today, especially in the playoffs where upper tier bullpen arms can pitch nearly every game because of days off and not needed to worry anymore about a long 162 game schedule.

 

So if it's say game 1-5 or 1-7 of a playoff series and their team holds a small lead, the GM's of these contenders aren't sitting around thinking well i am only getting X amount of WAR from each of my main relievers, they simply want the guys to each get three outs without any runs scoring. And don't want t be one of those teams who get bounced because their bullpen blows a late lead or two in a playoff series.

 

Everyday position players during a long regular season generally will have an easier chance to produce a higher stat like WAR than a reliever throwing say just 55 innings, but that isn't why these type up relievers are acquired. They are acquired mainly just to protects close leads or tie games and eat sunflower seeds in the bullpen for non-close games.

[Boomer5]

I do think he sold him high. Maybe it would have been higher had Thornburg had an excellent first half, but I'm ok that he sold him now to eliminate the risk of injury.

 

That's not the issue; it's did we get a good return of 3 guys ranging from meh to interesting vs say selling him for one elite prospect and a useful MLB back up piece like the Will Smith deal?

 

Well this post was poorly timed. Darn you Bickford!!

[sveumrules]

Contenders aren't looking at stats like WAR though when trading for relief pitchers who may only throw 50-65 innings.

 

No doubt. It's possible that if Thornurg stays healthy & dominant all year & the Red Sox make the playoffs he will provide more value in one month of postseason play than six months of regular season innings.

 

I don't really like WAR that much for relievers either, but it is the best we have for comparing production between pitchers & position players. It's hard for me to buy that a third baseman with a good half season & an okay full season "hasn't had any real success at the major league level" but a relief pitcher with one good half season, one good full season & three middling seasons has.

[paul253]

The only reason I compared their career WARs was in response to paul253's assertion that "none of them, including Shaw I'd argue, have had any real success at the major league level

 

Haha well have they? I don't consider Shaws MLB numbers all that successful, especially compared to other third basemen.

[CheeseheadInQC]

If Shaw becomes a league average third baseman, then the trade is probably a pretty clear win for the Brewers, but after his second half of last season, there's still an uncomfortably decent chance he's a left-handed Will Middlebrooks. I'm kind of mixed on the deal, but Shaw righting the ship this season would be a big plus.

[MrTPlush]

The only reason I compared their career WARs was in response to paul253's assertion that "none of them, including Shaw I'd argue, have had any real success at the major league level

 

Haha well have they? I don't consider Shaws MLB numbers all that successful, especially compared to other third basemen.

 

He has put up average offensive stats and with good defense. Not exactly what I would want, but he fills a hole at the very least. If you can get your difference makers at other positions he is perfectly acceptable. Not bad, not good.

[paul253]

He has put up average offensive stats and with good defense

 

He's put up alright power numbers and defense but that's about it. His BA and OBP are not pretty.

[MrTPlush]

He has put up average offensive stats and with good defense

 

He's put up alright power numbers and defense but that's about it. His BA and OBP are not pretty.

 

Yah, I agree, he isn't setting the world on fire. However I think he is at least some kind of MLB contributor and possibly with potential to be a solid starter

[adambr2]

I do think he sold him high. Maybe it would have been higher had Thornburg had an excellent first half, but I'm ok that he sold him now to eliminate the risk of injury.

 

That's not the issue; it's did we get a good return of 3 guys ranging from meh to interesting vs say selling him for one elite prospect and a useful MLB back up piece like the Will Smith deal?

 

It's very possible that Stearns sees Dubon as that elite prospect. Those top 75-150 guys start to get pretty subjective, and scouts might still think he's on the way up. Remember, when we traded Gomez, Hader was seen as the 3rd best piece of that package, and now he's what, a top 30 MLB prospect?

 

I'm still skeptical of Dubon, but if he can produce within 100 points OPS of what he did in AA this year, with good defense, he's going to be a very valuable shortstop.

 

No doubt the return for Smith was flashier, but there's a very good chance this return will be better.

[Eye Black]

Alex Speier's Boston Globe article, How the Red Sox made the Chris Sale trade happen, includes some detailed information about the discussions that led to the Thornburg trade. Below is a snippet from the article.

 

At baseball’s general managers meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., the second week of November, the Red Sox discussed trading for Tyler Thornburg with the Brewers...

 

...On the way out of the meetings, Milwaukee GM David Stearns touched base with Dombrowski.

 

“[stearns] said, ‘Dave, I know you asked me about Thornburg. We have interest in Travis Shaw. Maybe there could be a foundation, but it wouldn’t be one for one,’ ” recalled Dombrowski. “I said, ‘Well, it would be something we’d be interested in talking about.’"

 

The subsequent three weeks featured relatively little contact as teams awaited a new collective bargaining agreement.

 

The new CBA was settled on Nov. 30, four days before teams descended upon the Winter Meetings in Oxon Hill, Md., with a new sense for the rules that would guide their roster construction. However, Dombrowski wasn’t rushing to the phones.

 

“I think that’s usually not a good way to do things,” he said. “It’s not like signing a free agent. You need to have a pulse of what’s going on but not be jumping right away.”

 

On Dec. 2, Stearns suggested he and the Red Sox could work on building a three-player package around Shaw and middle infielder Mauricio Dubon.

[Mass Haas]

Providence Journal: How Tyler Thornburg's lower arm slot last season reflected his newfound comfort

[MadThinker88]

Alex Speier's Boston Globe article, How the Red Sox made the Chris Sale trade happen, includes some detailed information about the discussions that led to the Thornburg trade. Below is a snippet from the article.

 

At baseball’s general managers meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., the second week of November, the Red Sox discussed trading for Tyler Thornburg with the Brewers...

 

...On the way out of the meetings, Milwaukee GM David Stearns touched base with Dombrowski.

 

“[stearns] said, ‘Dave, I know you asked me about Thornburg. We have interest in Travis Shaw. Maybe there could be a foundation, but it wouldn’t be one for one,’ ” recalled Dombrowski. “I said, ‘Well, it would be something we’d be interested in talking about.’"

 

The subsequent three weeks featured relatively little contact as teams awaited a new collective bargaining agreement.

 

The new CBA was settled on Nov. 30, four days before teams descended upon the Winter Meetings in Oxon Hill, Md., with a new sense for the rules that would guide their roster construction. However, Dombrowski wasn’t rushing to the phones.

 

“I think that’s usually not a good way to do things,” he said. “It’s not like signing a free agent. You need to have a pulse of what’s going on but not be jumping right away.”

 

On Dec. 2, Stearns suggested he and the Red Sox could work on building a three-player package around Shaw and middle infielder Mauricio Dubon.

 

Clearest evidence that Dubon was targeted by DS. I think the trade is a win for the Brewers unless all 3 guys they received fall on their face...

[MrTPlush]

Alex Speier's Boston Globe article, How the Red Sox made the Chris Sale trade happen, includes some detailed information about the discussions that led to the Thornburg trade. Below is a snippet from the article.

 

At baseball’s general managers meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., the second week of November, the Red Sox discussed trading for Tyler Thornburg with the Brewers...

 

...On the way out of the meetings, Milwaukee GM David Stearns touched base with Dombrowski.

 

“[stearns] said, ‘Dave, I know you asked me about Thornburg. We have interest in Travis Shaw. Maybe there could be a foundation, but it wouldn’t be one for one,’ ” recalled Dombrowski. “I said, ‘Well, it would be something we’d be interested in talking about.’"

 

The subsequent three weeks featured relatively little contact as teams awaited a new collective bargaining agreement.

 

The new CBA was settled on Nov. 30, four days before teams descended upon the Winter Meetings in Oxon Hill, Md., with a new sense for the rules that would guide their roster construction. However, Dombrowski wasn’t rushing to the phones.

 

“I think that’s usually not a good way to do things,” he said. “It’s not like signing a free agent. You need to have a pulse of what’s going on but not be jumping right away.”

 

On Dec. 2, Stearns suggested he and the Red Sox could work on building a three-player package around Shaw and middle infielder Mauricio Dubon.

 

Clearest evidence that Dubon was targeted by DS. I think the trade is a win for the Brewers unless all 3 guys they received fall on their face...

 

How is this a clear win?

[homer]

Yeah I don't think it's a win until the dust settles. And even then I'm ok with a "draw".

[Mass Haas]

VIDEO TWEET: Mauricio Dubon discusses his stance

[Mass Haas]

What a fantastic piece from BP Milwaukee, reaching out and getting quotes from Dubon as part of this feature --

 

Mauricio Dubon: Letting the Game Come

By Jack Conness

[Greenleaf1]

Very excited about Dubon this year. Do we think he'll start in AAA? How much more does he have to learn at AA, it seems like he pretty much killed it there, even if it was only for 60 games. It's not like our upper minors system is overwhelmed with middle infield prospects either (he and Rivera can split time at SS/2B maybe?).

 

Hoping in August/September he comes up and can be another Hernan Perez for us.