Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[sveumrules]

I only quoted Dubon's AA numbers as a point of reference to illustrate that he has already exhibited better results at a higher level than Erceg or Diaz while being similar in age. I'm not saying it is proof of anything other than that he at least belongs in the conversation with them. Sure the sample is small, but it is larger than the sample that we have for Erceg at A ball and at a much higher level of competition to boot, so if anything it should be slightly more reliable than Erceg's data. Below is a stop by stop breakdown of Dubon's minor league performance as it relates to K%, BABIP & wRC+. TL,DR version is every year he has been 1.5 to 3.3 years young for his level while exhibiting top flight K% & above average BABIP & wRC+ marks at each stop along the way.

 

2014: Age 19, 2 years younger than average in New York Penn League. 77 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 9.5 representing the lowest mark in the league. His BABIP of .341 ranked 22nd of those 77 players. His wRC+ of 114 was 36th of those 77 players. Of the 35 players with a higher wRC+ than Dubon only 5 were the same age or younger.

 

2015: Age 20, 1.6 years younger than average in Sally League. 156 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 13.0 ranking 26th. His BABIP of .337 was 44th of those 156 players. His wRC+ of 123 was 30th of those 156 players. Of the 29 players with a higher wRC+ than Dubon only 7 were the same age or younger.

 

2015: Age 20, 2.7 years younger than average in Carolina League. 89 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 14.1 ranking 19th. His BABIP of .320 ranked 35th of those 89 players. His wRC+ of 100 was 52nd of those 89 payers. Of the 51 players with a higher wRC+ than Dubon only 4 were the same age or younger

 

2016: Age 21, 1.5 years younger than average in Carolina League. 88 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 9.0 once again representing the lowest mark in the league. His BABIP of .338 ranked 28th of those 88 players. His wRC+ of 118 ranked 25th of those 88 players. Of the 24 players with a higher wRC+ only 10 were the same age or younger.

 

2016: Age 21, 3.3 years younger than average in Eastern League. 144 players received at least 200 PAs with Dubon's K% of 13.4 ranking 25th. His BABIP of .374 ranked 14th of those 144 players. His wRC+ of 151 ranked 8th of those 144 players. Of the 7 players with a higher wRC+ only 2 were the same age or younger.

[reillymcshane]

Nice interview of Tyler Thornburg (by former teammate Bruce Badenhop) on mlbtraderumors.com about the craziness of the trade:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/tyler-thornburg-trade-chat-burke-badenhop-red-sox-brewers-interview.html

[CheeseheadInQC]

So what are the odds we find out about the PTBNL tomorrow after the rule 5 draft?

 

Outside of Justin Haley, some of the top Red Sox Rule 5 eligible guys seem to be Teddy Stankiewicz, Jake Romanski, Aneury Tavares, Yankory Pimentel and, because why not, Jose Sermo.

[Eye Black]

I do find it interesting that the offseason discussion that led to this trade started from a call by David Stearns to inquire about Travis Shaw. I would have figured it was the Red Sox who were the aggressor, but apparently the Brewers sparked the conversation (although I believe the teams discussed Thornburg prior to last season's trade deadline as well).

[RobDeer 45]

My guess is Stearn's belief is that bullpens should be built year to year with a mix of free agents and young arms. Thornburg's value probably wouldn't have gotten much higher, so mind as well trade him now if there was a suitable offer. Seems like unless you have a dominant closer, it's really hard to count on consistency from bullpen arms. So maybe trading them after a good year is the way to do it???

[MillerParkSouth]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/12/08/gimme-a-hundred-red-sox-brewers-trade-contains-100-clause/95132726/

 

Interesting

[JosephC]

I do find it interesting that the offseason discussion that led to this trade started from a call by David Stearns to inquire about Travis Shaw. I would have figured it was the Red Sox who were the aggressor, but apparently the Brewers sparked the conversation (although I believe the teams discussed Thornburg prior to last season's trade deadline as well).

 

Shaw just doesn't have the upside where one would figure he sticks in the starting lineup for a team like the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers for multiple seasons. But he does have enough potential where he could be a fine "second-division" starter a third for several seasons. It's not at all crazy to see a player like Shaw go into Miller Park and hit 25 home runs, slash something like .260/.320/.480/.800 and play plus defense at third base. If he achieves that he probably sticks in the lineup for several seasons for Milwaukee and then Stearns has traded three years of a setup man/closer for five years of a starter at third base (plus). To me the only thing with Shaw is if he will get on-base enough. If his OBP sticks at about .300 the power and defense will not be good enough and he'll be a bust. But if he stays in the .320 to .330 range he will start a lot of games for Milwaukee.

[monty57]

I will personally be very surprised if Thornburg doesn't blow his elbow out before hitting free agency. Hope I'm wrong.

 

I agree and yes I hope I'm wrong too. This trade looks like the Brewers think the same thing and rushed to unload him before that happens.

 

I can't say I blame them.

 

Stearns seems to value players somewhat differently than many of the people who make "the lists." He looks for young players who are not yet on other guys' lists. This allows him to get multiple guys who he expects to rise onto these lists, instead of getting one guy who is already on the lists. For example, his choice for trading Lucroy was the Cleveland offer with a bunch of young guys over the Texas offer with "Top 100" guys. I like what we ended up with, but that was Stearns' second choice. I also remember most posters hating that we traded Lind for three teenagers no one had ever heard of, but now most here are pretty happy with that deal.

 

There is risk in going against the grain and trusting your valuations over the valuations that are publicly distributed, but since finding "diamonds in the rough" seems to be his forte, I will give him the benefit of the doubt for now. I highly doubt he made this deal because he felt rushed and that he had to make a deal before an injury occurred. Rather, I think he likes what he got back, and felt it was the best move to make to continue to add talent to the team.

[JosephC]

I will personally be very surprised if Thornburg doesn't blow his elbow out before hitting free agency. Hope I'm wrong.

 

I agree and yes I hope I'm wrong too. This trade looks like the Brewers think the same thing and rushed to unload him before that happens.

 

I can't say I blame them.

 

Stearns seems to value players somewhat differently than many of the people who make "the lists."

 

And while MLB.com does do fairly frequent updates to their lists, it still doesn't happen in real time. So not only is there variability from one evaluator to the next, some players are way lower than they should be on certain lists because whoever assembles and maintains the list maybe hasn't done a recent review of that prospect's progress. Like Brandon Woodruff on the Brewer's list.

 

I also think Dubon may provide an example of this. There is no way anyone could argue to merits of Boston's minor league system prior to these recent deals. Their "top 5" was probably the best in baseball. But I would argue that their system as a whole did not nearly have the depth that the Brewers had. Outside of Dubon and RHP-Roniel Raudes I really didn't think they had all that much quality once moving past the #7/#8 players on the list. On the other hand I would have put the Brewers as being really solid through the first 11 or so, and then still see plenty of players I like for one reason or another sprinkled through the rest of the list (Lopez, Woodruff, Cordell, etc). But when Dubon went from Boston's list to Milwaukee's list he went from #12 to #9. I don't think that was because Boston's farm system was that much stronger than Milwaukee's in the 8-13 range, I think somebody re-evaluated what Dubon did this last year and adjusted his value/rating upwards. Obviously no proof of that, just a feeling that's what happened.

[1992casey]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/12/08/gimme-a-hundred-red-sox-brewers-trade-contains-100-clause/95132726/

 

Interesting

The article's saying that the cash alternative for the PTBNL is $100.

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in this case, he and Milwaukee general manager David Stearns were sure there would be no problems. So they just wrote down any old amount.

 

Well, almost.

 

"They usually don't like when you make it $1," Dombrowski said Wednesday, smiling, "so we made it $100."

[MKE81]

I also think Dubon may provide an example of this. There is no way anyone could argue to merits of Boston's minor league system prior to these recent deals. Their "top 5" was probably the best in baseball. But I would argue that their system as a whole did not nearly have the depth that the Brewers had. Outside of Dubon and RHP-Roniel Raudes I really didn't think they had all that much quality once moving past the #7/#8 players on the list. On the other hand I would have put the Brewers as being really solid through the first 11 or so, and then still see plenty of players I like for one reason or another sprinkled through the rest of the list (Lopez, Woodruff, Cordell, etc). But when Dubon went from Boston's list to Milwaukee's list he went from #12 to #9. I don't think that was because Boston's farm system was that much stronger than Milwaukee's in the 8-13 range, I think somebody re-evaluated what Dubon did this last year and adjusted his value/rating upwards. Obviously no proof of that, just a feeling that's what happened.

100% agree he was re-evaluated and entered the system at 9 as a result. You mentioned Woodruff, he's still 25-26 on our list and he's very likely to be a Top 10 once they're re-evaluated and updated (although Hader sat at 14 last year even after strong performances).

 

Lara should be nowhere near the Top 10 either given the abundance of talent in this system, especially the Top 20. He should be mid-20 given his production at his age level.

[FVBrewerFan]

Forgive me if this has already been said over the 14 pages. Another thing to consider is the improved defense at the corner IF positions, and the effect that has on the young starting pitchers coming up the next couple years.

 

With Hader, Lopez, Woodruff, etc. on the horizon, I think it's a huge plus to ask them to be groundball pitchers then put players out there who can actually field them. Being a rookie SP is tough enough without having grounders booted, 1B who can't save a bad throw, double plays that aren't turned, etc. 1B/3B is now much better defensively than Carter at 1B and a cast of thousands at 3B.

[ewitkows]

Do we know that Thames is a better defensive 1B?

[markedman5]

Do we know that Thames is a better defensive 1B?

 

He almost has to be doesn't he?

[brewerfan82]

Do we know that Thames is a better defensive 1B?

For what it's worth:

 

In 2015, Thames won the MVP award and a Gold Glove at first base, became the first KBO player to hit 40 homers and steal 40 bases in a season, logged a .391/.497/.790 slash line and became the first player in Korean baseball to hit for the cycle twice in the same season.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18066579/a-sensation-korea-eric-thames-make-most-chance-milwaukee-brewers

[pacopete4]

Do we know that Thames is a better defensive 1B?

For what it's worth:

 

In 2015, Thames won the MVP award and a Gold Glove at first base, became the first KBO player to hit 40 homers and steal 40 bases in a season, logged a .391/.497/.790 slash line and became the first player in Korean baseball to hit for the cycle twice in the same season.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18066579/a-sensation-korea-eric-thames-make-most-chance-milwaukee-brewers

 

 

Basically playing in a good bar league softball league.

[MrTPlush]

Do we know that Thames is a better defensive 1B?

 

Well...when the bar is set at a -1.5 dWAR it probably doesn't take much to be better than that. If he can take more than one step each way he is probably better already.

[sveumrules]

Fangraphs had 17 qualified first basemen for 2016. Carter ranked 14th by DRS & 15th by UZR. On a team level DRS had Brewers 1B 22nd of 30 and UZR had Brewers 1B dead last.

 

We didn't have an individual qualifier at 3B but on a team level Brewers 3B ranked 12th of 30 in DRS & 19th of 30 in UZR. In 851 innings at 3B last year DRS had Shaw at +10 & UZR had him at +1.

[FVBrewerFan]

Basically playing in a good bar league softball league.

 

I know 1B in bar league softball who are better defensively than Carter.

[MadScientist]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/12/08/gimme-a-hundred-red-sox-brewers-trade-contains-100-clause/95132726/

 

Interesting

The article's saying that the cash alternative for the PTBNL is $100.

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in this case, he and Milwaukee general manager David Stearns were sure there would be no problems. So they just wrote down any old amount.

 

Well, almost.

 

"They usually don't like when you make it $1," Dombrowski said Wednesday, smiling, "so we made it $100."

 

My take is that it is very likely that the Brewers will get a player from this deal, especially with none of Boston's players got picked in the rule 5 draft. The only way I could see that not happening is if the PTBNL was only tied to an extreme event like Shaw not making the Brewers roster, or Thornburg getting injured early.

[Greenleaf1]

My take is that it is very likely that the Brewers will get a player from this deal, especially with none of Boston's players got picked in the rule 5 draft. The only way I could see that not happening is if the PTBNL was only tied to an extreme event like Shaw not making the Brewers roster, or Thornburg getting injured early.

 

Two players got taken from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft.

 

Also, if the PTBNL was tied to the Rule 5 draft, I would've expected to hear who it was by now. That's how it happened with Manny Pina.

 

That said, the comment on the $100 does sound like it will definitely be an actual player we'll be getting and not cash.

[CheezWizHed]

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in this case, he and Milwaukee general manager David Stearns were sure there would be no problems. So they just wrote down any old amount.

 

This makes it sound like they were certain that it wouldn't be an issue with the Brewers getting a player. So, I can think of a couple possibilities:

1) Brewers had 2 players they liked equally in the Rule 5 draft, so they knew if one got picked the Red Sox could protect the other.

2) The player has nothing to do with the Rule 5 draft and is being delayed for other reasons. Could it be someone that was drafted last year and waiting to be traded?

[MadThinker88]

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in this case, he and Milwaukee general manager David Stearns were sure there would be no problems. So they just wrote down any old amount.

 

This makes it sound like they were certain that it wouldn't be an issue with the Brewers getting a player. So, I can think of a couple possibilities:

1) Brewers had 2 players they liked equally in the Rule 5 draft, so they knew if one got picked the Red Sox could protect the other.

2) The player has nothing to do with the Rule 5 draft and is being delayed for other reasons. Could it be someone that was drafted last year and waiting to be traded?

 

Cheez - neither reason you gave makes any sense.

1) If player is selected from team A, team A is unable to protect others after that selection. The protected list was put in place before the winter meetings (& therefore before the Thornberg trade).

2) Players drafted in June XX are able to be dealt right after the conclusion of the world series in XX

 

PTBNL can't be on the 40 man roster so perhaps DS & company want a little more time to review some scouting reports/ medical info before they name the person.

[DHonks]

not sure all the complaining. Carter was far and away better than Fielder, while Gennett is far better than Weeks.

[brewmann04]

I have to agree that the brewers will be getting a player back maybe a low minor league type.