Tyler Thornburg traded to Boston for 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington, SS Yeison Coca

[Boomer5]

I like this deal more than Davis for Soler.

[MKE81]

people have referenced red sox fans liking-loving this trade. they should. they get a very good setup man for 3yrs at a low cost for his production while giving up pieces that don't significantly impact the mlb roster or the pipeline - they dealt from a position of depth. they still have panda at 3b and their middle IF is set for years to come. but the vast majority of what i've read from sox fans is they thought they overpaid for a reliever who they don't know if he'll even continue his dominant performance from this past year because he has no track record of pitching at that level previously combined with injuries in 2 of the past 3yrs.

 

additionally, thornburg isn't elite. elite relievers do it for several years, not 4 months (he had a 3.22 ERA heading into June last year). 2013 as a reliever he had a 3.04 ERA with 5.3 K/9 ratio. he had injuries in 2014, 2015 and was definitely a solid pen arm with 9 K/9 ratio but nothing truly jumps off the page for him as a reliever heading into 2016 even though we knew he had good stuff. he took a huge step forward this year. posted a 2.32 ERA as a 7th/8th inning guy with a 12 K/9 ratio before dominating as a closer (was awful final 4 appearances though). history has shown that people like him will regress. i see him sitting in the greater 2.7 ERA area with a double digit K/9 ratio, which is very good but that's not elite.

 

will smith isn't a good comparison either. smith had a track record of health and strong performance as a reliever with ERAs the past 4yrs of 2.45, 3.7, 2.7, 3.35 - he was killing it in 2014 and was abused in his usage so his 3.7 ERA doesn't tell the entire story (thornburg had a tad bit of that as well at one point). last year he had the injury and didn't seem like himself for the most part with us but had a 2.95 ERA with Giants. he's always had a 11-12 K/9 ratio. and he's a lefty, who has also been very tough on lefties but gets out both sides of the plate. and he went to a playoff contending team at the deadline in a white hot reliever market (the current market isn't the same as the deadline market).

 

a very solid setup man with very real injury concerns moving forward who doesn't have a track record of elite performance brought us 3 players + potentially another. Shaw - a MLB starting 3b (who can also play 1b, LF) with a good glove and 20HR power from the left side who's controllable for 5yrs. there is nothing wrong with being an average MLB starter. WS teams have them too. they still provide value. IF everyone in our pipeline emerges he would turn into a very valuable versatile bench player or if he kills it he can bring back value in a trade. his presence also allows Villar to move to 2b, thus creating a much better defensive unit, while also keeping Perez in his super utility role where he holds great value as a player. Dubon - 22yr old who had great success in 250 AB in AA this past year who's hit very well at every level thus far. a player all scouts say has the potential to be an above average MLB defensive SS while having excellent bat to ball skills. he grades out above average in all tools other than power. that's a potential starting MLB SS right there (worst case he's a better version of Perez but people talk about him as if he's a solid every day player). Pennington - coming out of HS was projected to go 20+ rounds higher than he did given his TJ. will develop as a starter but he'll end up in the pen throwing 96-98 with an above average curve. he has a MLB arm he just needs to continue to develop and become consistent in pounding the zone. how many pitchers are in our system that throw 94-98 as a starter (96-98 as a reliever)? he's young and now back at full health so this should be a big year for him in appleton.

 

i just don't understand how people are underwhelmed at this.

[pacopete4]

 

i just don't understand how people are underwhelmed at this.

 

I don't understand how you wouldn't see that would bug someone during your rant.

[FVBrewerFan]

i just don't understand how people are underwhelmed at this.

 

It's simple. None of the players coming back are stamped with a Top 50 or Top 100 label. Don't look any deeper than that, it's why so many people think it's underwhelming.

[homer]

Yea, the performance risk is not a factor for me, but the injury risk is very real. Roll the dice hemail holds up until August? No, I rather take this deal.

 

If the Brewers were a big market team you could afford to wait. But it's really a kick in the pants for the Brewers to wait on a guy only to have him fail or get hurt. I think that's one of the reasons they traded Khris Davis when they did. Couldn't afford to take the risk of him getting hurt again.

[Boomer5]

people have referenced red sox fans liking-loving this trade. they should. they get a very good setup man for 3yrs at a low cost for his production while giving up pieces that don't significantly impact the mlb roster or the pipeline - they dealt from a position of depth. they still have panda at 3b and their middle IF is set for years to come. but the vast majority of what i've read from sox fans is they thought they overpaid for a reliever who they don't know if he'll even continue his dominant performance from this past year because he has no track record of pitching at that level previously combined with injuries in 2 of the past 3yrs.

 

additionally, thornburg isn't elite. elite relievers do it for several years, not 4 months (he had a 3.22 ERA heading into June last year). 2013 as a reliever he had a 3.04 ERA with 5.3 K/9 ratio. he had injuries in 2014, 2015 and was definitely a solid pen arm with 9 K/9 ratio but nothing truly jumps off the page for him as a reliever heading into 2016 even though we knew he had good stuff. he took a huge step forward this year. posted a 2.32 ERA as a 7th/8th inning guy with a 12 K/9 ratio before dominating as a closer (was awful final 4 appearances though). history has shown that people like him will regress. i see him sitting in the greater 2.7 ERA area with a double digit K/9 ratio, which is very good but that's not elite.

 

will smith isn't a good comparison either. smith had a track record of health and strong performance as a reliever with ERAs the past 4yrs of 2.45, 3.7, 2.7, 3.35 - he was killing it in 2014 and was abused in his usage so his 3.7 ERA doesn't tell the entire story (thornburg had a tad bit of that as well at one point). last year he had the injury and didn't seem like himself for the most part with us but had a 2.95 ERA with Giants. he's always had a 11-12 K/9 ratio. and he's a lefty, who has also been very tough on lefties but gets out both sides of the plate. and he went to a playoff contending team at the deadline in a white hot reliever market (the current market isn't the same as the deadline market).

 

a very solid setup man with very real injury concerns moving forward who doesn't have a track record of elite performance brought us 3 players + potentially another. Shaw - a MLB starting 3b (who can also play 1b, LF) with a good glove and 20HR power from the left side who's controllable for 5yrs. there is nothing wrong with being an average MLB starter. WS teams have them too. they still provide value. IF everyone in our pipeline emerges he would turn into a very valuable versatile bench player or if he kills it he can bring back value in a trade. his presence also allows Villar to move to 2b, thus creating a much better defensive unit. Dubon - 22yr old who had great success in 250 AB in AA this past year who's hit very well at every level thus far. a player all scouts say has the potential to be an above average MLB defensive SS while having excellent bat to ball skills. he grades out above average in all tools other than power. that's a potential starting MLB SS right there (worst case he's a better version of Perez but people talk about him as if he's a solid every day player). Pennington - coming out of HS was projected to go 20+ rounds higher than he did given his TJ. will develop as a starter but he'll end up in the pen throwing 96-98 with an above average curve. he has a MLB arm he just needs to continue to develop and become consistent in pounding the zone. how many pitchers are in our system that throw 94-98 as a starter (96-98 as a reliever)? he's young and now back at full health so this should be a big year for him in appleton.

 

i just don't understand how people are underwhelmed at this.

 

If the argument is Thornburg isn't elite then the equal argument would be we most certainly didn't bring back anyone elite back either. Maybe Dubon but the guy is 160 lbs so that says slap hitter more than anything else. Time will tell. Shaw was brutal the second half of last year.

 

If Thornburg is the guy from last year in his prime with 3 more years of control, it was a terrible trade. If he was the guy from before that then it was a good trade.

[sveumrules]

Dubon may not be elite but at age 21 in the Eastern League he managed a K% less than 15% with an ISO north of .150. The only other players in the EL to match those numbers at age 21 since 2010 are Lonnie Chisenhall, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benitendi & Dominic Smith. Pretty nice company.

 

Isan Diaz put up a 143 wRC+ as a 20 year old in A ball this year. Lucas Erceg put up a 139 wRC+ in A ball as a 21 year old. Dubon just put up a 151 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. Sure Diaz & Erceg profile with better power, but they also both swing and miss quite a bit (21.1 K% for Lucas, 25.2 K% for Isan). What Dubon lacks in power by comparison he makes up for with better speed, defense (both ability & versatility), and markedly better contact skills, 13.4K% as a 21 year old in AA. Posters seem to generally be pretty high on both Diaz & Erceg, I don't see why Dubon wouldn't generate similar levels of excitement.

[And That]

Dubon is currently a borderline top 100 prospect. Just going by MLB Pipeline's list, Isan Diaz is a top 100 prospect, and Dubon is right behind him on the Brewers' top prospect list. Assuming the drop off in talent from Diaz to Dubon isn't too great (and I don't think it is), Dubon may not be a top 100 prospect by MLB Pipeline standards, but he's probably in the top 110.

[Rock hard Brouhard]

I have not read the whole thread so I am sorry of some mentioned this but does any one think the player to be named later has to do with the Rule V draft. Essentially we take someone from the Red Sox and if we like them they are the player to be named later and we can put them down or if they look at that person and decide this is not what they were looking for that we get the whole fee back instead of half of it.

[MKE81]

 

i just don't understand how people are underwhelmed at this.

 

I don't understand how you wouldn't see that would bug someone during your rant.

by rant you mean providing a reality check? this board, in general, overrates almost every Brewers player on the trading block. look no further than the deals proposed that involve any Brewer who might be traded. Thornburg was great this year as a late inning reliever then was amazing as a closer for 2 months. and people "believe", present day, he's equal to or worth more than Jeffress/Smith deals - players who had a 3yr+ track record of very good performance (better than Thornburg overall). then take into account other variables surrounding Thornburg (ie medical history) as well as the present day market. yes, Stearns most likely could have got a guy inside the top 100 right now but ignoring any other option to improve your mlb team and your system at the same time is absurd. needing to see "top 100" in front of a guy blows my mind. you don't need to simply get a top 100 in order to have a good trade, especially when you can land a starting MLB 3b (which also has a domino affect in allowing other pieces to shift around on the mlb team making us better overall), a highly regarded SS prospect among scouts who is no doubt a tad outside the top 100 and a lottery ticket who is much more talented than the round he was drafted in.

 

so, again, i don't understand how people are underwhelmed by his. what i do understand is this board has tunnel vision

[FVBrewerFan]

Dubon may not be elite but at age 21 in the Eastern League he managed a K% less than 15% with an ISO north of .150. The only other players in the EL to match those numbers at age 21 since 2010 are Lonnie Chisenhall, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benitendi & Dominic Smith. Pretty nice company.

 

Isan Diaz put up a 143 wRC+ as a 20 year old in A ball this year. Lucas Erceg put up a 139 wRC+ in A ball as a 21 year old. Dubon just put up a 151 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. Sure Diaz & Erceg profile with better power, but they also both swing and miss quite a bit (21.1 K% for Lucas, 25.2 K% for Isan). What Dubon lacks in power by comparison he makes up for with better speed, defense (both ability & versatility), and markedly better contact skills, 13.4K% as a 21 year old in AA. Posters seem to generally be pretty high on both Diaz & Erceg, I don't see why Dubon wouldn't generate similar levels of excitement.

 

I made this point earlier, but limited for time I stuck to an OPS comparison. Thanks for providing more detail and really putting this into perspective.

 

Point being, as you said, people love Diaz (and many love Erceg too) but if you really look at it objectively, Dubon is better on paper. But again, he didn't come delivered with the "Top 100" stamp on his head, so he's underwhelming to some.

 

Like with Diaz, Stearns was just ahead of the curve getting Dubon BEFORE he turns up on Top 100 lists. Not to mention Top 100 lists are far from the be all/ end all.

[gregmag]

If the argument is Thornburg isn't elite then the equal argument would be we most certainly didn't bring back anyone elite back either. Maybe Dubon but the guy is 160 lbs so that says slap hitter more than anything else. Time will tell. Shaw was brutal the second half of last year.

 

If Thornburg is the guy from last year in his prime with 3 more years of control, it was a terrible trade. If he was the guy from before that then it was a good trade.

I don't quite follow your logic here, but you seem to be saying "if you want to talk about the possibility Thornburg will fail, then we also have to talk about the possibility the possibility the guys we got back will fail." That makes perfect sense. But then you turn around and say "if, on the other hand, Thornburg succeeds, then it's a terrible trade." That makes no sense at all.

 

By what seems to be your own logic, if we're going to talk about the possibility Thornburg will succeed, then don't we also have to talk about the possibility the guys we got back will succeed? If Thornburg is a star closer for Boston for three years, and if Shaw's an above-average starter at 3b, Dubon holds his power gains, and Pennington turns into even a legit bullpen weapon, then I'd say it's a pretty great trade for both sides.

 

Maybe what you're trying to say is that you think the guys we got back are more likely to fail than Thornburg. Fair enough, and I'd take that bet. Boston's staking everything on a half season of star-quality performance from an undersized pitcher with a surgically repaired shoulder. We're getting 17 years of control of three very different sorts of players, each of whom has a realistic (not to say likely) path toward having a much better career than Thornburg going forward. Boston's in this for leverage. We're in it for total return, and by that measure it's hard to see us losing. What are the odds that Shaw alone is worth more WAR (or its theoretical equivalent of anyone's choice) over the next three years than Thornburg? They have to be better than 50-50, maybe more like 70-30, given that a reliever needs to pitch out of his mind to win you three games in the 60-80 innings he pitches.

[MKE81]

If the argument is Thornburg isn't elite then the equal argument would be we most certainly didn't bring back anyone elite back either. Maybe Dubon but the guy is 160 lbs so that says slap hitter more than anything else. Time will tell. Shaw was brutal the second half of last year.

 

If Thornburg is the guy from last year in his prime with 3 more years of control, it was a terrible trade. If he was the guy from before that then it was a good trade.

You're right, Shaw was brutal in the 2nd half. But why doesn't his first half count for anything (2/3 of his ABs came first half)? Why doesn't his 2015 count? Or his age for that matter? There's value in a player like him.

 

Regarding your last comment, so those are the only two scenarios that can play out? Given Thornburg's career you have no idea which guy you're going to see moving forward. He could be a 2.2 ERA, 2.8 ERA or even injure his elbow again. There's risk associated with him. If Shaw provides value at 3b and Dubon becomes a valuable MLB middle IF in 1.5-2yrs then we landed 2 MLB players for 1. There's value alone in landing a starting MLB 3b over a certain prospect.

[JJHardy7]

Also if you think the other sports are 'fair' because of salary caps you really do not understand the economics of sports. It is harder to turn around an NFL franchise that is losing than an MLB one. Basketball is just more random since hitting big on just 1 or 2 players is all you need.

 

I guess I don't understand the NFL to MLB comparison. I feel like it is a lot easier to turn around a NFL team than it is in MLB. Honestly, MLB has made it so difficult for small market teams to compete it has to be hurting their business since it appears to only be getting worse.

 

In the NFL, the Packers can be successful every year. It is rare (does happen to a team or two) in the NFL that a team doesn't make the playoffs for over 10 years. Sure, there are more teams that make it, but the current economics of MLB stink for small market fans. The Cowboys were one of the worst teams in the league last year and right now have the best record in the NFL. Turnarounds can happen in short order.

 

I saw the comparison to Rodgers staying in Green Bay and that's a great one. Giannis just signed an extension with the Bucks. Those moves won't happen for the Brewers and it is depressing. The best case scenario we add all these prospects and maybe have a run for a few years before it collapses.

 

In regard to this trade, I'm ok trading Thorny now. I just think of the arm issues he's had at times and it makes sense why we traded him when we did. I think the reward outweighs the risk on this one.

[Boomer5]

If the argument is Thornburg isn't elite then the equal argument would be we most certainly didn't bring back anyone elite back either. Maybe Dubon but the guy is 160 lbs so that says slap hitter more than anything else. Time will tell. Shaw was brutal the second half of last year.

 

If Thornburg is the guy from last year in his prime with 3 more years of control, it was a terrible trade. If he was the guy from before that then it was a good trade.

You're right, Shaw was brutal in the 2nd half. But why doesn't his first half count for anything (2/3 of his ABs came first half)? Why doesn't his 2015 count? Or his age for that matter? There's value in a player like him.

 

Regarding your last comment, so those are the only two scenarios that can play out? Given Thornburg's career you have no idea which guy you're going to see moving forward. He could be a 2.2 ERA, 2.8 ERA or even injure his elbow again. There's risk associated with him. If Shaw provides value at 3b and Dubon becomes a valuable MLB middle IF in 1.5-2yrs then we landed 2 MLB players for 1. There's value alone in landing a starting MLB 3b over a certain prospect.

 

Obviously there are a lot of what ifs in any trade. I'm just saying that in a vacuum, the season Thornburg had plus the reliever market, plus 3 years of team control equal way more than we got back. We as Brewer fans think his arm might fall off at worst or regression to mean as most likely, so in that sense we got three useful, though not exciting, pieces for a guy who is good but not elite.

 

This is a market that just saw Adam Eaton bring in THE prize minor league talent based only off analytics and team control so, yeah, this haul for Thornburg is meh.

[MillerParkSouth]

So what are the odds we find out about the PTBNL tomorrow after the rule 5 draft?

[ebmackenzie]

This may have been mentioned before but could Dubon be insurance if Arcia just isn't a MLB hitter??

 

Arcia's MLB stay is not guaranteed and the slick fielder may be moved by a very good glove with a good bat.

[StearnsFTW]

I will personally be very surprised if Thornburg doesn't blow his elbow out before hitting free agency. Hope I'm wrong.

[1992casey]

I have not read the whole thread so I am sorry of some mentioned this but does any one think the player to be named later has to do with the Rule V draft. Essentially we take someone from the Red Sox and if we like them they are the player to be named later and we can put them down or if they look at that person and decide this is not what they were looking for that we get the whole fee back instead of half of it.

Welcome to the board.

 

Yeah, Rule 5 has been mentioned. It's also been hinted at that it could take up to six months for the PTBNL to be named.

[Boomer5]

I will personally be very surprised if Thornburg doesn't blow his elbow out before hitting free agency. Hope I'm wrong.

 

I agree and yes I hope I'm wrong too. This trade looks like the Brewers think the same thing and rushed to unload him before that happens.

 

I can't say I blame them.

[brewmann04]

I will hope the Brewers again grab a decent prospect as the PTBNL

[danzig6767]

Also, grooming closers is risky. If you're the Red Sox, with pressure and opportunity to win now, you need a closer you can trust. You can't hold auditions. For us, the risk of holding auditions is nil. If we try Knebel as our closer and he flops and costs us three games, we just shrug and turn to Marinez or whomever. If that happens in Boston, heads roll.

 

Maybe this is stupid. Maybe contending teams should be growing and auditioning their own closers, because the marginal risk matters less than having to blow up your talent pipeline. GMs are pretty smart now, so I'm inclined to think they know what they're doing, but bubbles happen. We'll see over time how the relief market plays out.

This is also about the playoffs where Boston expects to be.

 

Watch the playoffs the last 6-7 years or so. Bullpens are having as much importance as starting rotations and teams have taken notice. Just having a reliable closer is no longer enough in the eyes of contenders. They want at least 2-3 shutdown arms in their pen as is becoming the norm of many teams who advance in those playoffs so managers have flexibility at holding leads from the 6th inning on.

 

That's why good relievers in general are in such demand, not just closers. Teams are finally realizing that leads can be lost in the 6th-8th innings as much as the 9th. Getting out of that jam in the 7th inning can decide more on who wins a key playoff game than a closer coming in with nobody on in the 9th.

[LouisEly]

Dubon may not be elite but at age 21 in the Eastern League he managed a K% less than 15% with an ISO north of .150. The only other players in the EL to match those numbers at age 21 since 2010 are Lonnie Chisenhall, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benitendi & Dominic Smith. Pretty nice company.

 

Isan Diaz put up a 143 wRC+ as a 20 year old in A ball this year. Lucas Erceg put up a 139 wRC+ in A ball as a 21 year old. Dubon just put up a 151 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. Sure Diaz & Erceg profile with better power, but they also both swing and miss quite a bit (21.1 K% for Lucas, 25.2 K% for Isan). What Dubon lacks in power by comparison he makes up for with better speed, defense (both ability & versatility), and markedly better contact skills, 13.4K% as a 21 year old in AA. Posters seem to generally be pretty high on both Diaz & Erceg, I don't see why Dubon wouldn't generate similar levels of excitement.

Dubon's .374 BABIP didn't artificially inflate his AA numbers at all?

[sveumrules]

Of course they did. I would never project anyone for a .374 BABIP. At the same time Dubon has run BABIPs in the .320-.340 range throughout his minor league career so he's demonstrated an ability to leverage his frequent contact to his advantage thus far.

 

Erceg & Diaz had BABIPs of .325 & .332 in A ball last year while making far less contact than Dubon. Do you think that is representative of their true talent or likely to regress as they move up the ladder and face more advanced pitching?

[LouisEly]

At the same time Dubon has run BABIPs in the .320-.340 range throughout his minor league career so he's demonstrated an ability to leverage his frequent contact to his advantage thus far.

 

Erceg & Diaz had BABIPs of .325 & .332 in A ball last year while making far less contact than Dubon. Do you think that is representative of their true talent or likely to regress as they move up the ladder and face more advanced pitching?

1) When he did post BABIPs in the .320-.340 range, his wRC+ was around 114-115, not the 151 you quoted in your post. You made no mention in your post that it could be an outlier and made no mention of his prior wRC+, you only quoted his AA numbers which were a fairly small sample. His AA numbers were also inflated by six triples in 62 games.

 

B) BABIP is much more relevant for pitchers than hitters, except for extreme cases. For a really extreme case, see Lewis Brinson.

 

3) BABIPs of .325 and .332 are much more normal for good hitters (for example, Tony Gwynn's ML career BABIP was around .340; Braun's ML career BABIP is .334) and, based on their power, I do think they are more indicative of their true talent.