Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

The Brewers don't need more two, three and four pitchers; they need a legitimate number one. Garza will be 34. Take his five million and put it towards an anchor in the rotation (possibly, Darvish). The free agent class is not greatvand I'd speculate Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, Guerra, Hader, and Burnes will all have a shot at the rotation in 2018. Adding a frontline starter with one of the previously mentioned being our two through five is a lot better than keeping everything the same with Garza in the mix. Their might even be enough to deal depth although Burnes, Hader, Nelson, Anderson and Woodruff are untouchable in my opinion. Find the number one in a trade.

[nate82]

The Brewers don't need more two, three and four pitchers; they need a legitimate number one. Garza will be 34. Take his five million and put it towards an anchor in the rotation (possibly, Darvish). The free agent class is not greatvand I'd speculate Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Suter, Guerra, Hader, and Burnes will all have a shot at the rotation in 2018. Adding a frontline starter with one of the previously mentioned being our two through five is a lot better than keeping everything the same with Garza in the mix. Their might even be enough to deal depth although Burnes, Hader, Nelson, Anderson and Woodruff are untouchable in my opinion. Find the number one in a trade.

 

Picking up Garza's contract would not hamper the Brewers from doing this and Garza's $5m is not going to help or hurt the Brewers in signing someone like Darvish. I don't think the Brewers should even think about going after anyone in free agency. The only starting pitcher I want to see the Brewers connected to in the off season is Shohei Otani. Darvish is going to get paid somewhere near $20m a season and the Brewers should not be going after someone like that way to much of a risk.

 

Picking up Garza's option will be a smart move by the Brewers. There will be about half the league that would be interested in Garza as a #5 on their roster for only $5m. The Brewers won't get a top 100 player back in a trade but they will get a talented player probably someone who is in A ball or lower. Not picking up Garza's $5m option is just a foolish idea. A #5 starter on average is going to cost you about $8m a year for multiple years on the free agent market unless you pick up someone who hasn't started in the last 3-5 years and put them in the rotation then you can get someone cheaper in free agency. Even on the trade market trying to find a #5 for less than or equal to $5m is rare and if you do find someone who is going to cost less you are going to be paying more as the majority of those players are going to be pre-arbitration players. Pre-arbitration players have more value than $5m and even guys in their first or second year of arbitration are going to cost more in a trade than Garza.

 

The Brewers right now have a surplus value in Garza on the trade market if they pick up that $5m option. You don't just dump a surplus value because you think you can spend that $5m better on something else. It would be better to trade that value for something more useful than a free agent pitcher who carries the same risk as Garza but at a higher price tag.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

34 year old pitchers who can not make it a third time through the line up are not valuable trade assets. Keeping the same rotation will equal one thing and that is in wild card contention at best. I wouldn't label Garza as a surplus value. He is an aging MLB starter waiting for the wheels to fall off.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

34 year old pitchers who can not make it a third time through the line up are not valuable trade assets. Keeping the same rotation will equal one thing and that is in wild card contention at best. I wouldn't label Garza as a surplus value. He is an aging MLB starter waiting for the wheels to fall off.

[MrTPlush]

Garza has surplus value. How this is still being argued is amazing.

[StearnsFTW]

Garza has surplus value. How this is still being argued is amazing.

 

 

Pretty much exactly what I was going to say.

[pacopete4]

Garza has surplus value. How this is still being argued is amazing.

 

Simply because he's not a liked player. They can spin it any way they want but that's what it comes down to.

[KeithStone53151]

Garza has surplus value. How this is still being argued is amazing.

 

Simply because he's not a liked player. They can spin it any way they want but that's what it comes down to.

 

Garzas value is probably a push based on his contract. He's rocking a 3.7 era averaging 5.5 innings per start and has been incredibly lucky based on most advanced metrics, starting with his career low 6k/9ip. And this is coming off 2 terrible seasons. He's also hit the DL twice this season already and will be 34. 5 million next year is a reasonable price to pay for a #4/5 starter, but a majority of teams would probably rather take a chance on something internal than pay for Garza. Maybe someone like Baltimore might want him, but options will be scarce. Based on his arsenal, I feel like this season is a best case scenario for what Garza is capable of...a 3.7 era averaging 5.5 innings. I personally feel like of our current 5, our odds of winning a game are the worst when Garza pitches.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If I can get a starter who's giving me a 3.7 ERA and 6 innings, I'll gladly pay $5 million. Just look at some of the junk that even decent teams are rolling out there in their rotations. Granted Garza isn't going to fetch a great return from a contender at the trading deadline, but you're telling me you couldn't flip him in the offseason to a team that has playoff hopes but is short in the rotation?

[KeithStone53151]

If I can get a starter who's giving me a 3.7 ERA and 6 innings, I'll gladly pay $5 million. Just look at some of the junk that even decent teams are rolling out there in their rotations. Granted Garza isn't going to fetch a great return from a contender at the trading deadline, but you're telling me you couldn't flip him in the offseason to a team that has playoff hopes but is short in the rotation?

 

3.7 ERA averaging 5.5 innings is pretty much the best possible outcome on the season for Garza. It's not like you are paying $5 million and able to mark down in permanent ink 3.7 ERA averaging 5.5 innings a start. A more likely outcome is what happened the last 2 years, or an injury to the aging vet that has had a lot of injury issues over his career.

 

And again the amount of teams interested in Garza will be very limited. Most rebuilding clubs would rather take a chance on someone in house. Most contending teams will have 5 better pitchers than Garza. You'd have to look for a desperate team with a bad GM and a bad farm to find a taker on $5 million for Garza. Orioles, Angels, maybe the Marlins.

[MillerParkSouth]

Garza has surplus value. How this is still being argued is amazing.

It's really something. I could see him being flipped for some rookie/A-ball pitchers like the Lind trade.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

How is your surplus value looking tonight?

[DocLuna7]

How is your surplus value looking tonight?

 

Fine. One start isn't likely to change his overall value very much.

[JohnBriggs12]

How is your surplus value looking tonight?

 

Fine. One start isn't likely to change his overall value very much.

 

You're right. He had little to no value before last night and little to no value now. Even when his starts go okay, he rarely gets through 6 innings. Almost every team has young arms they'd want to look at before picking up a Garza.

[KeithStone53151]

How is your surplus value looking tonight?

 

Fine. One start isn't likely to change his overall value very much.

 

You're right. He had little to no value before last night and little to no value now. Even when his starts go okay, he rarely gets through 6 innings. Almost every team has young arms they'd want to look at before picking up a Garza.

 

Briggs is spot on. His ERA was far below where his peripherals and the eye test dictated it should be. I was happy to watch him consistently get out of jams and get line drive outs while it happened, but him getting shelled was inevitable. Hopefully he can limit the damage with smoke and mirrors for a bit longer. I'm sure Garza will hold down his spot when Anderson comes back, and Suter will get sent to the bullpen.

[JosephC]

Trying to take the most unbiased view of Matt Garza.

 

Average yearly WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

2015 = -0.55

2016 = +0.55

2017 = +1.35 (when projected over a full season)

3-year average = +0.45

Estimated value per 1 WAR in 2018 = 9.15 million

9.15 x 0.45 = 4.12 million in value

Even at a seemingly low 5 million salary, I would still have him as being on the minus side when looking at surplus value.

And that would also assume no drop-off in performance. Since he will be in his age 34 season, most would likely expect a drop-off (despite him being better from 2015 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2017).

 

IMO, the best a Brewer fans should expect in return is one fringe prospect (another organization's Clint Coulter or equivalent). If Stearns can find one team out there that things Garza will have a similar performance to 2017 in 2018, then maybe he could get a Cody Ponce type prospect but that would really be pushing the expectations.

[Outlander]

2015 skews that quite a bit, why not include 2014 with the Brewers then it is an easy call. I think how he finishes up the year will determine if he has value. Easy to say he doesn't after yesterday.

[tmwiese55]

At 5 mil with so little salary on the books and no teams will give more than just filler/blah prospects I think it's pretty clear they'll just hold him for next for depth. We've been down to 3 starters at points this year, you need to have 6 or 7 going into each year. No reason he can't be one of them at such a small cost

[MrTPlush]

How is your surplus value looking tonight?

 

It's not necessary to even comment if all you are going to do is hate on him when he does good and then come and post like it proves your point when he does bad. Your not proving anyone wrong if he starts pitching terribly after everyone says he has surplus value. Obviously he won't if he starts sucking, shocker.

[KeithStone53151]

At 5 mil with so little salary on the books and no teams will give more than just filler/blah prospects I think it's pretty clear they'll just hold him for next for depth. We've been down to 3 starters at points this year, you need to have 6 or 7 going into each year. No reason he can't be one of them at such a small cost

 

I wouldn't think you'd want to pay $5 million for a depth piece. Garza would be on a guaranteed contract without the ability to be sent down. Next year, we'll have 3 guys locked into rotation spots with Hader, Woodruff, Suter and Guerra as in house options for the final 2 spots. There is some depth there in case of injury. I would like to think Burnes might be ready to contribute if needed at some point next year. Stearns may also see fit to add a high end starter in free agency to lead the rotation, which would lock in a 4th guy to the rotation and leave those 4 competing for 1 spot. That might be a move he makes heading into 2019, but possible this coming offseason as well.

 

I like the idea of adding depth, but moreso in the form of minor league contracts with big league camp invite type adds.

[MrTPlush]

Matt Garza wouldn't be a good depth piece because (as mentioned above) we can't send him down. I think he is pretty destined for another team regardless at this point unless he pitches really well down the stretch and they want to give him a rotation spot. I'd rather continue with Brandon Woodruff over him.

 

Maybe he can be traded for someone that can be optioned.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Matt Garza wouldn't be a good depth piece because (as mentioned above) we can't send him down. I think he is pretty destined for another team regardless at this point unless he pitches really well down the stretch and they want to give him a rotation spot. I'd rather continue with Brandon Woodruff over him.

 

Maybe he can be traded for someone that can be optioned.

 

Perhaps we should start searching out teams that need rotation depth and have a "needs a change of scenery" 2B option?

[tmwiese55]

We'll see I guess and some depends on how he finishes the year, but if he does roughly what he's been going I think they bring him back at the 5 mil and pencil him in as the 4 or 5 starter. If he falls apart you cut him like they did with Feliz. If he's fine then you get the good results and helps keep innings down on other guys. He'll likely hit the DL once or twice giving others opportunities to step in for him. Basically, the rotation would be similar to this year in the way it goes down involving a lot of guys in and out, Garza being one. Guys like Hader/Woodruff can't be banked on for 180+ innings. Guerra might be done. Do we really think Suter is anything more than a Jungman like fluke? For so cheap, might as well start him out and see how he does. Keeps some innings off a Hader and/or some time for Hader to build strength back up in the minors so he go deep in games.

[KeithStone53151]

We'll see I guess and some depends on how he finishes the year, but if he does roughly what he's been going I think they bring him back at the 5 mil and pencil him in as the 4 or 5 starter. If he falls apart you cut him like they did with Feliz. If he's fine then you get the good results and helps keep innings down on other guys. He'll likely hit the DL once or twice giving others opportunities to step in for him. Basically, the rotation would be similar to this year in the way it goes down involving a lot of guys in and out, Garza being one. Guys like Hader/Woodruff can't be banked on for 180+ innings. Guerra might be done. Do we really think Suter is anything more than a Jungman like fluke? For so cheap, might as well start him out and see how he does. Keeps some innings off a Hader and/or some time for Hader to build strength back up in the minors so he go deep in games.

 

The difference between feliz and Garza is feliz had legit upside. He was a gamble that failed. Garzas ceiling is a fringe successful #5. Woodruff has built his innings up to the point that I think he would be allowed to go over 180 innings if he succeeds. I understand that would only be 4 spots. It is possible we look at a free agent. With the team performance this year, I think it's more likely we look for a high quality rotation option rather than a back end guy. I think suter can give us roughly what we'd pay Garza 5 million for, but I think we'll aim to have 5 starters better than both with suter being a spot starter or swing man in the pen at league minimum.

[tmwiese55]

Yea if they decide to spend 10+ mil on a legit good starter I think it would be his end here. That said, I guess I'd rather just have Garza at 1/ 5 mil than the next Garza at 4/45. Unless the guys actually legit, but in that case he'd be too expensive and/or not available so. Who knows, maybe last night was the start of his collapse and the decision is made for them in the next month. I'm just saying I think they're going to need multiple guys to fill out those last spots