Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??

[ewitkows]

My guess it would look like the Niese trade

 

To Mets: LHP Jonathon Niese

 

To Pirates: LHP Antonio Bastardo, cash

[MrTPlush]

My guess it would look like the Niese trade

 

To Mets: LHP Jonathon Niese

 

To Pirates: LHP Antonio Bastardo, cash

 

Niese was absolutely terrible when traded. I thought we were all assuming Garza kept up what he has done so far(obviously some regression). Garza is likelier to put up better advanced stats and has a potentially attractive option for next year. If Garza keeps it up I would expect notably more than Niese got.

[OnTheBlack]

My guess it would look like the Niese trade

 

To Mets: LHP Jonathon Niese

 

To Pirates: LHP Antonio Bastardo, cash

 

Niese was absolutely terrible when traded. I thought we were all assuming Garza kept up what he has done so far(obviously some regression). Garza is likelier to put up better advanced stats and has a potentially attractive option for next year. If Garza keeps it up I would expect notably more than Niese got.

 

Take a team like the Yankees who are out to a 18-9 start and may well look to add multiple starters. I don't like their chances to get through 162 games with CC, Pineda and Tanaka. Garza is exactly the type of pitcher I could see them adding. And then to have the option to bring him back for 5 million next year?

 

Maybe we try and play the lottery and see if we can get a guy like James Kaprielian from the Yanks. He's a guy who won't be pitching this year and likely very little next year, but also a potential future ace. Unlikely, but...if Garza can give us a really good stretch here...he's worth asking about IMO. Ace stuff when healthy.

[jerichoholicninja]

My guess it would look like the Niese trade

 

To Mets: LHP Jonathon Niese

 

To Pirates: LHP Antonio Bastardo, cash

 

Niese was absolutely terrible when traded. I thought we were all assuming Garza kept up what he has done so far(obviously some regression). Garza is likelier to put up better advanced stats and has a potentially attractive option for next year. If Garza keeps it up I would expect notably more than Niese got.

 

Take a team like the Yankees who are out to a 18-9 start and may well look to add multiple starters. I don't like their chances to get through 162 games with CC, Pineda and Tanaka. Garza is exactly the type of pitcher I could see them adding. And then to have the option to bring him back for 5 million next year?

 

Maybe we try and play the lottery and see if we can get a guy like James Kaprielian from the Yanks. He's a guy who won't be pitching this year and likely very little next year, but also a potential future ace. Unlikely, but...if Garza can give us a really good stretch here...he's worth asking about IMO. Ace stuff when healthy.

 

I don't know anything about this Kaprielian guy but Garza is not bringing back anyone who will even sniff the word ace. A Davies-like back of the rotation guy is probably the best you can hope for.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd be thrilled with 3-4 million in salary relief and the opening in the rotation for the starters knocking on the door. Expecting more is dreaming.

[liveforoctober]

I'd be thrilled with 3-4 million in salary relief and the opening in the rotation for the starters knocking on the door. Expecting more is dreaming.

 

I am kind of in this boat as well. If someone takes part of his salary from us mid summer when it is time to start looking at some of our AAA guys ... that would be a blessing.

[Austin Tatious]

If you gave me one lottery ticket of the types we got from Seattle for Lind, I'd be happy.

 

Right now, Garza is a progess stopper for guys like Woodruff or Lopez. They are ready for their shot, IMO.

 

Most importantly, let's hope that Attanasio and his brass (a) understand not to go after a Garza type again, and (b) proactively and competently draft and develop enough pitching talent that we don't need to resort to these overpriced signings on mediocrities who are on the back nines of their respective careers. There are much better uses of the money than Braden Looper, Wolfie, Lohse, Garza, Soup, et al. It's been a perpetual tool that was part of the Brewer roster building for a decade. Some of the signings may have been ok for fewer years but that's circular because that's what it took to get them here.

[adambr2]

If you gave me one lottery ticket of the types we got from Seattle for Lind, I'd be happy.

 

Right now, Garza is a progess stopper for guys like Woodruff or Lopez. They are ready for their shot, IMO.

 

Most importantly, let's hope that Attanasio and his brass (a) understand not to go after a Garza type again, and (b) proactively and competently draft and develop enough pitching talent that we don't need to resort to these overpriced signings on mediocrities who are on the back nines of their respective careers. There are much better uses of the money than Braden Looper, Wolfie, Lohse, Garza, Soup, et al. It's been a perpetual tool that was part of the Brewer roster building for a decade. Some of the signings may have been ok for fewer years but that's circular because that's what it took to get them here.

 

Yeah, Woodruff has been kind of overshadowed by Hader, but he shouldn't be. Dude is dominating Colorado Springs. Even at home.

[Never Outhustled]

I'd be thrilled with 3-4 million in salary relief and the opening in the rotation for the starters knocking on the door. Expecting more is dreaming.

 

Expecting more is knowing the reality of the situation, based on what happend just last year.

[superfly]

Watching this pitching staff, i'd prefer we keep Garza. Somebody has to take the mound every 5th day that isn't a total embarassment to the franchise. Much rather trade Nelson or Peralta if there is even anyone out there that is dumb enough to bite on their age.

[MillerParkSouth]

Embarrassment really doesn't matter this year, if Garza is producing he will and should be traded.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Watching this pitching staff, i'd prefer we keep Garza. Somebody has to take the mound every 5th day that isn't a total embarassment to the franchise. Much rather trade Nelson or Peralta if there is even anyone out there that is dumb enough to bite on their age.

 

Is that you Matt?

 

Throwing your rotation mates under the bus, perhaps? lol

[bill hAll Star]

I'd be thrilled with 3-4 million in salary relief and the opening in the rotation for the starters knocking on the door. Expecting more is dreaming.

 

That $3-4 million in salary relief will likely just be offset in 3 or 4 years in arbitration costs for the guys knocking on the door that have to come up early. Of course, if this is the best you can get, then take it...I'd just bring some AAAA fodder in though to finish the majority of this year and then get the important guys up next year.

[MrTPlush]

If he keeps pitching well I would expect an Aaron Hill type trade at the bare minimum(with us not picking up much if any salary). Starting pitching is usually a pretty valuable commodity at the deadline. Actually if he keeps up a sub-4 ERA he might be one of the most attractive options out there for teams. Not saying that translates into a big package, but teams will be knocking on the door more than some might think. His health from here to the deadline will be incredibly important too.

[Greenleaf1]

I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys?

 

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.

[MrTPlush]

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.

 

Not to mention then you can really sell a team on that $5mil option which may have been difficult after a tough 2016.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys?

 

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.

 

Offseason deals are tougher because GMs are all set at a position, or convince themselves they are.

 

Put yourself in their shoes. Would YOU have really given up any prospects of significance for Garza, Peralta, Nelson, or Anderson after the seasons they had? Or would you say we'll give Joe Blow, our AAAA starter a chance. That's basically what happened, I think.

 

Now add to that how many teams not knowing if they would be a contender or not. Why give up prospects for a Peralta or Garza when you don't even know yet how the season is going to shake out? That's why, in general, it's easier to get a deal done mid-season. GMs have a much better idea if they're a contender, and what they need. Plus, they aren't above the emotion involved with a playoff chase.

[JohnBriggs12]

Add Trevor Cahill who's making $1.75 million this year to the list of guys who could be more attractive to teams than Garza.

[igor67]

I don't see us exercising the option on Garza to be a place holder, and presumably we need to settle on viable potential candidates for next year which could be a fairly interesting year based on how well the team is doing so far. So under that guideline Garza does not have a lot of long term value to us. Certainly right now he's providing solid value in not tanking games and allowing players to avoid the general ill-will of a complete tank.

 

Starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline and assuming Garza continues to pitch at atleast a league average rate he will have a decent trade value. Not a franchise altering prospect, unless you go super young lottery ticket type. Still value though in some fashion. With any luck players similar to Broxton, Pina, or Shaw who did not seem to have a ton of value but are contributing at a pretty high level.

[Outlander]

The Red Sox have shown they are willing to trade with the Brewers and did before the trade deadline last year with Hill. Considering they are trotting Kyle Kendrick out there and falling further and further behind the Orioles and Yankees, it would be an upgrade to obtain Garza and they could obtain him sooner rather than later if they want.

[brewmann04]

I think you move Matt if he continues pitching well as he is not going to be part of the rebuild

[LouisEly]

I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys?

 

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.

Melvin always said that in-season is the better time to trade pitching and off-season is the better time to trade position players. As others have mentioned, by mid-July Garza will essentially have 1.5 years and $10M left on his contract, which is very reasonable.

 

One of the X-factors is the Giants, if they continue to struggle they have Matt Moore to dangle, and he has very reasonable team options with cheap or no buyouts for the next two seasons. Matt Cain is a shell of his former self, hasn't been healthy since 2013, and has a $21M salary this season and next with a $7.5M buyout for next season. I'd think that Garza would be more attractive than Cain. Samardzija has 3/$59M left on his deal; depends on how much of that the Giants would be willing to eat. But the Giants could flood the market with starters and not ask for much other than salary relief in return.

[pacopete4]

The Mariners pitching staff can't stay healthy. Could Garza be a fit there?

[JosephC]

If Garza keeps pitching like he has pitched so far he'll potentially be a fit for about 50% of the league in July. Fastball velocity at 92, xFIP at 3.57, nothing all that scary that I see in any of the peripherals, and he's pitched in the AL East which doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me but some people still seem to swoon over that fact.

 

Personally I'd be surprised if he keeps up these numbers but if he does he'll should get a pretty decent return. Top 100 prospect could be a stretch but not at all unrealistic to think he could get a couple "top 10 organizational prospects" (meaning two players in the 101-300 overall range) back if he maintains this pace into July.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Garza keeps pitching like he has pitched so far he'll potentially be a fit for about 50% of the league in July. Fastball velocity at 92, xFIP at 3.57, nothing all that scary that I see in any of the peripherals, and he's pitched in the AL East which doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me but some people still seem to swoon over that fact.

 

Personally I'd be surprised if he keeps up these numbers but if he does he'll should get a pretty decent return. Top 100 prospect could be a stretch but not at all unrealistic to think he could get a couple "top 10 organizational prospects" (meaning two players in the 101-300 overall range) back if he maintains this pace into July.

 

This is true. The longer he keeps looking a #3 the higher his return will be because that 5million option looks more and more worthwhile to pick up. He's still gotta keep toeing the rubber w/o injury. So theres a lot of time to pass before really getting excited about him.