Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??

[jerichoholicninja]

Bad? Yes.

 

One of the baseball's worst? Not quite.

[endaround]

That is based upon bWAR. Look at fWAR, Garza put up 4.7 wins which has a value of $47 million under his $10 million per win metric.

[superfly]

It's definitely not an ideal situation, but I don't get the vile hate towards Garza. Should we have signed him in hindsight? Probably not, but that's in the past and payroll is all of 57 million...who cares? Garza put up pretty much identical stats last year to Peralta and Nelson's entire big league track records yet we aren't giving up on them? Garza has a decade long track record...I would bet he has another year(s) of that before he completely implodes and is out of the league.

[JohnBriggs12]

Reality is he has zero trade value now, and a first half similar to his second half last year will restore on only minimal value, maybe a couple million of salary relief and an obscure C or D level prospect. Is that worth him taking starts away from cheaper controllable arms? Not in my book.

[superfly]

Reality is he has zero trade value now, and a first half similar to his second half last year will restore on only minimal value, maybe a couple million of salary relief and an obscure C or D level prospect. Is that worth him taking starts away from cheaper controllable arms? Not in my book.

 

Somebody has to pitch every 5th day. Just because you're a young arm doesn't mean you're ready for the bigs, just look at Jungmann. Guerra has all of 1 season to his credit at age 32 and everybody loves him. Garza is the nearly the same age except he has a track record.

[A Swing and A Drive]

With the news that Thor will miss 3 months, I wonder if we can dump Garza on the Mets somehow?

[adambr2]

2 starts isn't much to go on, but if the Mets were willing to take his remaining $10M or so this year off our hands, I'm sure we'd gladly accept.

 

I think it's more likely the Mets just claim Milone, or send us cash/PTBNL (minors filler) for him.

[billymac]

Going back to July 26th last year, he's given up more than 3 earned runs in just 2 outings spanning 14 starts and he's pitched ok this year. A 3.60 ERA over that span. If we eat the majority of this years salary and he has a very good $5M team option next year, why couldn't he net a good lower level prospect? The price of starters is high on the market in trades the past couple years.

[adambr2]

Going back to July 26th last year, he's given up more than 3 earned runs in just 2 outings spanning 14 starts and he's pitched ok this year. A 3.60 ERA over that span. If we eat the majority of this years salary and he has a very good $5M team option next year, why couldn't he net a good lower level prospect? The price of starters is high on the market in trades the past couple years.

 

Maybe if he puts together a few more nice starts. It would come down to how much salary we're willing to eat, I think.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Wouldn't it behove the Brewers to eat all the salary even for a marginal prospect in return?

 

It seems to me that Garza is and will be just blocking innings of younger starters within the organization.

 

Heck, as bad as he is, I'd rather give Taylor Jungmann some more MLB innings to see if he can provide ANY value for us going forward.

 

And Hader, Woodruff and Lopez will need MLB innings soon as well.

[pacopete4]

Eating $10 mil in salary for a marginal prospect? Doesn't sound like a great business decision. Garza isn't really blocking anyone right now. If he continues to pitch well, there's no complaint about him ever being in our rotation. It is guys like Peralta and Nelson who will eventually block the youth if we continue to accept their below average pitching in our rotation.

[MrTPlush]

If Garza pitches sub 4 ERA type ball into July there will most certainly be a lot of suitors because he isn't incredibly expensive and has the attractive option next year. If we eat salary to make this year super cheap too and depending on the market we could get legitimate prospects. Matt Garza has a decent amount of potential value and maybe our best trade piece that isn't young/controllable.

[pacopete4]

If Garza pitches sub 4 ERA type ball into July

 

This is where the front office will show their true colors on the rebuild. If Garza is that good into July, there is a pretty chance we are competing for the wild card. It will be interesting to see if they sell off that many pieces come July if they have a chance at snagging one of those two last spots.

[MrTPlush]

If Garza pitches sub 4 ERA type ball into July

 

This is where the front office will show their true colors on the rebuild. If Garza is that good into July, there is a pretty chance we are competing for the wild card. It will be interesting to see if they sell off that many pieces come July if they have a chance at snagging one of those two last spots.

 

Maybe if Anderson can do the same and Guerra can come back to 2016 form(not fully obviously). We are at .500 right now living off an unsustainable offense and have a truly garbage pitching rotation/bullpen.

[Never Outhustled]

If Garza pitches sub 4 ERA type ball into July

 

This is where the front office will show their true colors on the rebuild. If Garza is that good into July, there is a pretty chance we are competing for the wild card. It will be interesting to see if they sell off that many pieces come July if they have a chance at snagging one of those two last spots.

 

Garza, like so many other pitchers, has improved since getting out of the shadow of former pitching coach Rick Kranitz. Garza had been solid his whole career except for his time with Kranitz. I'd think teams will recognize this.

 

Johnson will keep Garza pitching well, and the Brewers have zero need for a salary dump. He'll only be dealt for value.

[MrTPlush]

Picking up money isn't a negative thing. It could make him attractive to tight budget teams returning even better value.

[brewerfan82]

If Garza pitches sub 4 ERA type ball into July

 

This is where the front office will show their true colors on the rebuild. If Garza is that good into July, there is a pretty chance we are competing for the wild card. It will be interesting to see if they sell off that many pieces come July if they have a chance at snagging one of those two last spots.

 

Garza, like so many other pitchers, has improved since getting out of the shadow of former pitching coach Rick Kranitz. Garza had been solid his whole career except for his time with Kranitz. I'd think teams will recognize this.

 

Johnson will keep Garza pitching well, and the Brewers have zero need for a salary dump. He'll only be dealt for value.

Not sure how much Kranitz hurt Garza. While in 2015, Garza had his worst year FIP-wise (4.94), in 2014 also with Kranitz, he had his 2nd best career FIP (3.54). Since then he's had mediocre FIP's of 4.33 and 4.23. In fact as a whole his FIP with Kranitz (4.20) was lower than it has been since (4.32).

 

Meanwhile, all three other current starters that spent time under Kranitz (Peralta, Davies, and Nelson), also had better years with Kranitz (4.25, 3.81, 3.97 FIPs respectively) than they have had since (4.79, 4.05, 5.02).

 

Not that FIP is the be-all end-all of stats, but I don't know how clear cut it is that Kranitz was in general a negative enough influence on players for other teams to take note of it.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Two things that are NOT happening this season unfortunately:

 

1. The Brewers are NOT competing for the NL Wild Card.

 

2. The Brewers are NOT receiving a substantial trade return on Matt Garza.

 

 

Hard to fathom that people that follow baseball think otherwise. But the optimism is refreshing!

 

The Brewers are not at the point of their rebuild where they are ready to contend. GM Stearns would be the first to admit this.

 

Matt Garza is a replacement level SP, especially with the remainder of his contract factored in.

If he had ANY trade value, Mets or Rangers would already be on the phone.

[Boomer5]

Two things that are NOT happening this season unfortunately:

 

1. The Brewers are NOT competing for the NL Wild Card.

 

2. The Brewers are NOT receiving a substantial trade return on Matt Garza.

 

 

Hard to fathom that people that follow baseball think otherwise. But the optimism is refreshing!

 

The Brewers are not at the point of their rebuild where they are ready to contend. GM Stearns would be the first to admit this.

 

Matt Garza is a replacement level SP, especially with the remainder of his contract factored in.

If he had ANY trade value, Mets or Rangers would already be on the phone.

 

Agreed. As of now, I think the zenith is an Aaron Hill return, which is to say nothing.

 

However, a quality May plus the Brewers picking up much of the contract could change that based on the absolute lack of any quality starting pitchers being available.

[brewcrewdue80]

If you are paying more than 2million, you ought to be picking up a late 1st rd early 2nd rd talent. I find the oidea really poor that money needs to be involved in a trade. Maybe if he's traded before the month of June. But otherwise, youre talking less than 6million to pay for his starts down the stretch, and only 5mil option for next season. I'll wait for more starts out of him with solid lines before I even get an inkling teams are going to inquire on him. There is on fact with Garza and that is DL stints. Hes very risky for a team to look at him to acquire and think he's going to be there for post season. I'd expect him to be an August Trade via Waivers if hes still taking the mound.

[jerichoholicninja]

What exactly constitutes "substantial return" will vary wildly for each poster.

[Never Outhustled]

Two things that are NOT happening this season unfortunately:

 

1. The Brewers are NOT competing for the NL Wild Card.

 

2. The Brewers are NOT receiving a substantial trade return on Matt Garza.

 

 

Hard to fathom that people that follow baseball think otherwise.

 

People that follow baseball saw Andrew Cashner, who's remarkably similar to Garza, get traded last year at the deadline for a significant return.

[Lathund]

I'd be happy to eat most, or even all, of Garzas salary if it gets us something in return. I'd prefer not to of course, but the money isn't the issue; we gave him that contract four years ago, it's a sunk cost. This season will be his last with the team, whether he ends up traded, released after the season, released during it, or retires. He won't be part of our (hopefully) contending team in the years to come. So if we can get anything at all that might contribute to that team, that's worth paying some of his salary for the next six months. Mind you, I think it would take excellent performances by Garza combined with a really desperate team in order to make a trade happen.

[JosephC]

Garza is veteran starting pitcher with a fastball still averaging 92+ with playoff experience and on the last year of his contract. If he gets 12 starts in and has an ERA 3.5-3.6 and a WHIP 1.20-1.25 there will be plenty of interest in him. He won't bring back a top 100 prospect but if the Brewers eat the majority of what is left on his contract getting back a "organizational top ten prospect" plus a better "role player" prospect probably wouldn't be very difficult.

 

I just have doubts that Garza will be able to maintain his current pace. Time will tell.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Well I assume that Garza will need make 5 or so more starts and continue to be effective before a team would be willing to trade for him. At that point 1/3 of the season is gone which means about $8.66 million would be left to pay for '17. I think the Brewers should be willing to cover 1/2 of the remaining contract in a trade leaving an acquiring team to have Garza for 2/3 of the season at $4.33 and then the option to have him at $5 mil for '18.

 

Given those numbers (and assuming Garza health and effectiveness) I think a team who believes they will be competing for the playoffs in Aug & Sep would be willing to trade a pretty good prospect or two.